Sebastian Thrun (Udacity Co-founder) – Conversation with Axel Gern, head of Mercedes Autonomous Driving (Dec 2016)

Chapters

Abstract

Autonomous Driving: The Road to the Future and Its Challenges

Sebastian Thrun and Axel Gern: Pioneers in Autonomous Driving

Sebastian Thrun, the founder of Udacity and a key figure in self-driving car development, introduces Axel Gern, the head of Mercedes-Benz’s self-driving car team. Mercedes-Benz’s role as both a traditional car manufacturer and a software company highlights the industry’s evolving landscape. Gern emphasizes Mercedes’ long-standing involvement in autonomous driving, with achievements dating back to 1995, and their integration of self-driving features like stop-and-go assist and highway pilot systems in production vehicles.

Rethinking Car Ownership and the Future of Mobility

Thrun raises an important question about the future of car ownership, pondering whether ride-sharing services like Uber and Didi could reduce the overall need for cars. This shift could vary between urban and rural areas, with urban centers likely seeing a decrease in car ownership. Mercedes-Benz, embracing this change, is transitioning from a car manufacturer to a mobility service company.

Timeline and Hiring for Autonomous Driving

Mercedes-Benz is actively hiring engineers worldwide, focusing on sensor fusion, localization, prediction, and maneuver planning. They aim to develop highway pilot systems for autonomous highway driving by the end of the decade, with robust inner-city autonomous mobility services following later due to higher safety and reliability requirements.

Advice for Aspiring Engineers and the Historical Perspective

Aspiring engineers are advised to embrace mistakes as learning opportunities. The field’s history shows previous limitations in computational power and sensor quality, but recent advancements have renewed efforts in autonomous driving.

Challenges and Opportunities in Self-Driving Technology

Self-driving cars face the challenge of mixed traffic and customer adoption. The technology, still advancing, must achieve 100% reliability, reduce sensor costs, and enhance cybersecurity. The potential benefits include transforming real estate dynamics, reducing parking infrastructure, and creating economic opportunities in new industries like fleet management and data services.

Startups in the Autonomous Driving Landscape

Startups entering this field must consider timing, secure substantial investment, and face competition from established players. Potential areas for startups include fleet management, data services, and specialized cleaning services for self-driving cars.

Comparing Ford and Mercedes-Benz

Axel Gern’s interest in OpenPilot software for Mercedes models, particularly the affordable CLA model, and the discussion of security concerns highlight the competition in the industry. Thrun’s experience with Google’s digital map project GT and mapping business models further underscores the evolving landscape of autonomous driving.

Car-Sharing Services and Levels of Autonomous Driving

The appreciation for car-sharing services like Car2Go and BMW’s ReachNow indicates a shift in mobility preferences. Mercedes-Benz’s introduction of its cars into Car2Go and the aim for Level 3 automation, where the driver can engage in other activities, illustrate the progression in autonomous driving technology.

Ethical Considerations in Autonomous Driving

The ethical implications of collision avoidance systems and the trolley problem in self-driving cars present significant challenges. Gern and Thrun discuss the need for global consensus on ethical guidelines and the urgency of reducing traffic fatalities, emphasizing the complex nature of these ethical dilemmas.

Challenges to Self-Driving Cars

Infrastructure, mapping, regulations, and sensor fusion are not major obstacles, but technological issues remain, especially regarding reliability and cost.

Industries to Benefit from Self-Driving Cars

Real estate, parking garage industry, tort lawyers, trauma surgeons, and insurance companies may face changes due to self-driving cars. Car manufacturers may face increased competition from service providers.

Cybersecurity Concerns

Remote hacking and repairman tampering are potential threats. Cybersecurity for self-driving cars will become increasingly important.

Opportunities for Startups

Building teams with competent engineering talent is currently the most lucrative opportunity. New services related to fleet management, data acquisition, servicing, cleaning, and monitoring will emerge. Timing is crucial for startups in this field.

Electric Vehicles and Self-Driving Cars

Electric vehicles may be better suited for self-driving cars than owner-operated cars. Electric self-driving cars can potentially extend their range through battery swapping.

Electric Cars and Driveways

Electric cars could create opportunities for businesses to install electric chargers in private homes, transforming unused driveways into charging stations.

Self-Driving Cars and Modification Options

Integrating self-driving software into specific Mercedes models is challenging due to security concerns. Mercedes requires a vehicle interface module for running external software, making hacking a Mercedes more difficult.

Mapping Companies and Business Models

Licensing maps from a single provider is more economical for car companies than developing their own map sets. Small companies often outmaneuver well-established mapping companies in innovation.

Small Teams and Opportunities in Self-Driving Cars

Small teams can pursue opportunities in the self-driving car space and have a chance to make significant progress, potentially leading to acquisition by larger companies.

Mercedes-Benz and Car2Go

Mercedes-Benz is introducing Mercedes cars to Car2Go, revolutionizing car sharing by enabling efficient redistribution of vehicles to customers.

Levels of Autonomous Driving

Mercedes-Benz currently has Level 2 automation and aims for Level 3 automation, where drivers can perform other tasks while driving but must be able to understand traffic situations and respond accordingly.

Over-the-Air Updates

Mercedes-Benz is working on enabling over-the-air updates for its vehicles, allowing for remote software updates and new features.

Ethical Implications of Collision Avoidance Systems

The ethical dilemma in collision avoidance systems, where the car must choose between saving the occupants or a pedestrian, remains a challenge without a clear solution.

Gern’s View on the Trolley Problem:

Axel Gern questions the practicality of prioritizing society’s well-being over individual safety in self-driving cars. He emphasizes that the trolley problem is a rare scenario and highlights the need for a general solution applicable across different car manufacturers.

Thrun’s Perspective on Ethical Progress:

Sebastian Thrun argues that focusing on reducing traffic deaths is more ethically significant than dwelling on rare philosophical dilemmas. He believes that eliminating a large portion of traffic fatalities justifies the development of self-driving cars, even if there’s no clear consensus on handling specific ethical scenarios.

Gern’s Critique of Philosophers:

Gern criticizes philosophers for raising ethical questions without providing practical solutions. He points out that philosophers tend to add more complexities to the problem rather than resolving it.

Thrun’s Gratitude and Acknowledgment:

Thrun expresses his appreciation to the audience for their enthusiasm and participation in the event. He acknowledges Axel Gern as a key partner and mentions the presence of numerous hiring partners interested in the program’s graduates.

Conclusion

As the autonomous driving industry evolves, it faces numerous challenges and opportunities. From technological advancements to ethical considerations, new business models, and the potential transformation of urban spaces, the journey towards fully autonomous vehicles continues to shape the future of mobility. With leaders like Thrun and Gern guiding the way, the industry navigates these challenges, striving to revolutionize transportation and redefine our relationship with cars.

Notes by: oganesson