MOOCs and the Undecided Colleges:
The majority of U.S. colleges are undecided about offering Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). MOOCs are open to all, unlike online courses restricted to eligible individuals.

The Rapid Emergence of Online Education:
Online education is rapidly growing. Universities are responding with varying degrees of hesitation or enthusiasm.

Sebastian Thrun: A Multifaceted Leader in Online Education:
Sebastian Thrun is the co-founder and CEO of Udacity, a large online higher educational offering. He is also a professor at Stanford and a former employee of Google, where he worked on the Google Car project and managed Google Glass.

Neil Ferguson: A Historian with a Broad Perspective:
Neil Ferguson is a historian at Harvard, known for his big-picture approach. His works include “Civilization in the West versus the Rest,” “How Institutions Ascend and Rise and Fall,” and a television series on the ascent of money.

Sebastian Thrun’s Experience with Online Education:
Sebastian Thrun began his journey into online education by sharing his Stanford lecture online, expecting a few hundred students. Within a day, 5,000 students signed up, and the number quickly grew to 14,000. The online course attracted 160,000 students and graduated 23,000, with the top 412 students outperforming Stanford’s top students. The cost per online student was less than $1, and 170 out of 200 Stanford students preferred the online format.

Advantages of Online Education:
Online education offers several advantages over traditional education, including: Affordability: Online education can be significantly cheaper than traditional education. Convenience: Students can access online courses from anywhere with an internet connection. Accessibility: Online education can reach students worldwide, regardless of their location or circumstances. Flexibility: Online courses allow students to learn at their own pace and on their own schedule. Engagement: Online courses can be designed to be interactive and engaging, incorporating multimedia and gamification elements.

Potential Impact of Online Education:
Sebastian Thrun believes online education can democratize education by making it accessible to a broader global audience. Online education can also help address the rising cost of tuition and the exclusivity of top universities. By offering more flexible learning options, online education can cater to students who may not be able to attend traditional college programs due to work, family, or other commitments.

Economics of Education:
Education economics differ from movie economics. In movies, investing in one movie is feasible because millions of people will watch it, resulting in a low cost per person. This model has not been successfully applied to education.

Industry Involvement in Education:
Tech companies like Facebook and Google have expressed interest in playing a role in education. This interest stems from a perceived disconnect between what college professors teach and what companies need in their employees. Many companies see this as an opportunity to influence the education system and ensure that their employees have the necessary skills. As a result, much of the educational content on Udacity is now developed by industry. This approach ensures that the classes are up-to-date and aligned with the needs of the industry.

Niall Ferguson’s Perspective:
Ferguson agrees with the need to expand access to education beyond traditional universities. He emphasizes that he was an early adopter of online education technologies. Ferguson co-founded a company called BoxMind to make educational content accessible to a wider audience. He believes that the best lecturers and thinkers should not be limited to students at elite universities.

Ferguson’s MOOC Experience:
Niall Ferguson has actively engaged in making online resources for education. He produced a series of MOOCs and television documentaries to democratize historical knowledge.

The Quest for an Electronic History Textbook:
Ferguson emphasized the need for an electronic history textbook that is not just a digital version of a traditional textbook. He envisioned an app-based format to enhance interactivity and engagement.

Challenges with MOOCs:
Ferguson pointed out that the way we learn is not fully aligned with MOOCs. He highlighted the importance of learning with peers and through Socratic dialogues. Ferguson emphasized that MOOCs often lack the essential elements of successful education: individual study, peer learning, and Socratic dialogue.

Dropout Rates in MOOCs:
Ferguson presented data from HarvardX and MITx MOOCs, showing low completion rates. A significant portion of registrants do not view any content, and only a small percentage complete the courses.

Comparison to Traditional Lecture Courses:
Tom Stewart questioned whether the dropout rates in MOOCs are worse than those in traditional university lecture courses. Ferguson acknowledged that there are courses with lower completion rates than MOOCs but emphasized the dauntingly high dropout rates in MOOCs, particularly within the first few weeks.

Ferguson’s View on Solving MOOC Challenges:
Ferguson believes that MOOCs need to incorporate elements of individual study, peer learning, and Socratic dialogue to be more effective. He expressed his eagerness to hear Sebastian Thrun’s perspective on the challenges and potential solutions.

Sebastian Thrun’s Perspective:
Sebastian Thrun acknowledges Niall Ferguson’s concerns about the limitations of online education. He emphasizes the moral duty to make education accessible to everyone, especially those without opportunities to attend traditional universities. Thrun highlights the progress made in improving completion rates in MOOCs, from less than 50% to around 60%. He compares MOOCs to books, suggesting that people often don’t finish reading a book cover to cover.

Challenges in Online Learning:
Thrun acknowledges the challenges in developing effective online courses, describing it as a process rather than a one-shot attempt. He mentions various experiments conducted to improve completion rates, with the most effective strategy being to enrich MOOCs with a learning environment involving professional mentors. These mentors provide personalized support, answer questions promptly, offer career advice, and conduct entrance and exit interviews. Thrun emphasizes the cost-effectiveness of this human touch in online education, comparable to the level of care provided at Stanford University.

Flexibility and Mastery in Online Learning:
Thrun highlights the advantage of online education in terms of flexibility, allowing students to progress at their own pace and focus on mastery rather than meeting a strict schedule. He acknowledges that the medium for online education is still evolving but significant progress has been made.

Teaching Fellows in Online Education:
Niall Ferguson raises concerns about the quality of teaching fellows in large online courses and the need for careful selection and training. Sebastian Thrun explains the different requirements for teaching in math-oriented and computer science-oriented courses, which may require less emotional intelligence and more raw IQ. He also acknowledges the financial benefits and opportunities available in these fields, attracting talented individuals to become teaching fellows.

The Benefits of Online Education:
Automated Feedback: Online education allows for pre-coded responses to student submissions. While it is difficult to automate feedback for nuanced subjects like philosophy, it is more feasible for subjects with clear right and wrong answers, such as computer science. Scalability: Online platforms can handle a large number of students without a significant increase in resources, unlike traditional education, where the number of students is limited by the availability of teachers. Mentor Improvement: Online mentors become more effective over time due to their repeated interactions with students and the ability to learn from each other.

Challenges of Online Education:
Different Learning Styles: Not all subjects are equally suited for online education. Humanities subjects, for example, may be more difficult to teach effectively online compared to subjects like math or computer science. Effectiveness of Online Learning: Some students may learn better in a traditional classroom setting with face-to-face interaction with instructors.

The Role of Human Interaction:
Human Contact: Human contact and feedback are essential for effective learning. Online education can provide this through mentors who are trained to provide guidance and support to students. Active Learning: Learning is most effective when students are actively engaged in the learning process, such as solving problems or exploring new concepts. Flexibility: Online education offers flexibility in terms of time and pace, allowing students to learn at their own pace and on their own schedule.

The Future of Online Education:
Complementary Roles: Online education and traditional education can complement each other, with online platforms being used for scalable content delivery and traditional classrooms providing face-to-face interaction and personalized feedback. Innovations: Online education can drive innovation in education, such as the development of new teaching methods and tools that can enhance learning outcomes.

The Skills Gap:
McKinsey estimates a global skills gap of 80 million unfilled skilled jobs by 2020.

The Demand for Education:
There is a growing demand for education beyond the traditional college age and among individuals who cannot access higher education.

Online Learning as a Complementary Force:
Sebastian Thrun believes online learning will complement traditional education by reaching a broader audience and improving accessibility.

Universities’ Multiple Functions:
Universities engage in various activities, including research, medical research, computer science research, and archival work.

The Importance of Faculty Diversity:
Niall Ferguson emphasizes the importance of faculty diversity within universities, with both rock star faculty and those focused on research.

The Role of Campuses:
Ferguson highlights the value of campuses as places where different activities coexist, creating a network effect that is difficult to replicate elsewhere.

The Significance of Tenure:
Ferguson defends the concept of tenure, emphasizing its role in protecting academic freedom and enabling long-term research.

Preserving the Comity of the Faculty:
Tom Stewart raises concerns about the potential impact of online learning on the comity of the faculty and the funding of research.

Online Education’s Magic:
Online education’s expansion won’t destroy universities’ magic but could enhance it, just as televised college sports increased popularity.

Georgia Tech’s Online Degree Experiment:
Georgia Tech offered a computer science master’s degree online for $6,000, significantly less than the on-campus degree’s $45,000 cost. Fears that the online degree would harm the on-campus program proved unfounded as applications for the on-campus degree increased by 30%.

Lifelong Learning:
Education should be integrated throughout life, not confined to a specific phase. People now have multiple careers, requiring ongoing learning to adapt.

Changing Employment Trends:
People now hold an average of 7 different careers in their lifetime, making one-time education insufficient.

Challenges in Online Education’s Business Model:
Many online education companies have struggled financially. Khan Academy is non-profit and break-even. Traditional universities face issues with adjunct professors and rising costs.

Niall Ferguson’s Perspective:
Ferguson’s online education venture failed after burning through its funding. He believes online education should be given away rather than pursued as a business.

Demand for Affordable Education:
Sebastian Thrun expresses optimism about the demand for affordable education. Udacity’s for-pay version, priced at $150 per student per month, has gained significant popularity.

Online Education as a Mitigation:
Niall Ferguson acknowledges the financial crisis in American college education. He suggests that online education could potentially mitigate this problem to some extent.

Intergenerational Inequity:
Ferguson highlights the issue of intergenerational inequity, particularly the burden of student debt. He believes young people will eventually question the value of expensive credentials that may not lead to secure employment.

Udacity’s Alternative Path:
Thrun discusses Udacity’s efforts to provide an alternative educational path. He emphasizes the affordability of Udacity’s programs, which are below the price point regulated by accreditation bodies.

Free Education vs. Viable Business Models:
Thrun argues against making education entirely free, drawing parallels to the challenges faced by journalism. He emphasizes the value of sweat and hard work behind quality education and the need for viable business models.

Khan Academy’s Role:
Thrun suggests that Khan Academy should consider charging for certification-type services. He expresses concern about the potential limitations of an education system solely based on watching videos.

Role of Teachers in the Future:
In response to a question, Niall Ferguson emphasizes the importance of teachers gaining real-world experience outside of the educational system. He believes this can bring valuable perspectives and insights to teaching.

Academics’ Limited Practical Experience:
Many academics lack practical business or government experience, leading to a disconnect between theory and real-world application.

Encouraging Academics to Gain Practical Experience:
Niall Ferguson suggests that academics should spend part of their careers in the private sector or government to gain practical experience. This would provide a more balanced understanding of economic and political issues.

Online Learning’s Success and Potential:
Online learning platforms like Udacity produce high-quality courses with engaging content and a wide reach. By investing more resources in online education, it’s possible to create top-notch courses with superstar teachers.

The Impact of Disruption on Education:
The disruption of traditional education is real and cannot be resisted. Online learning, particularly through smartphones, is gaining popularity as it offers flexibility and convenience.

The Newspaper Analogy:
Universities are like newspapers, providing content and information. In the digital age, traditional universities face challenges unless they adapt to a hybrid or online model.

The Campus Network Effect:
Successful companies like Google utilize the campus network effect through mentorship, group work, and team-building activities. This model can be adapted to online learning environments to foster collaboration and engagement.

Institutional Longevity:
Niall Ferguson highlights that corporations typically have shorter lifespans compared to universities. He emphasizes that Google, despite its impressive presence, may not exist in 100 years, while Harvard University likely will.

Exception to Longevity:
Tom Stewart interjects, stating that churches and Stora Enso, a company founded around 800, are examples of institutions that have surpassed the longevity of universities.

Online Education and Engineering Enrollment:
A question is raised regarding the increase in engineering enrollment at Stanford University following the reduction in online education costs. The concern is whether this increase represents new students or a shift in demand from other institutions, potentially leading to a power law distribution where top schools dominate.

Data on Online Education Demographics:
Sebastian Thrun, the speaker, shares data from Stanford’s online program offered in collaboration with Georgia Tech. The average age of students in this program is 11 years older than those in the on-campus program. The majority of students are domestic, indicating that online education is attracting a different demographic compared to traditional residential programs.

Conclusion:
The discussion highlights the potential impact of online education on traditional universities, including the possibility of attracting different demographics and the emergence of a power law distribution where top institutions dominate. Thrun’s data suggests that online education may be appealing to older, working individuals who are unable to pursue traditional residential programs.

The Need for Continuous Education:
Society is rapidly changing, and every field is subject to disruption by new technologies. Professionals need to stay current with the latest advancements to remain relevant. This creates a demand for continuous education beyond the traditional age of formal schooling.

Challenges in Online Education:
There is a large population of underserved students who cannot access quality higher education due to financial or geographical constraints. Online education has the potential to address this issue, but there are challenges in delivering effective education in different areas, particularly in the humanities. Instant feedback is crucial for student empowerment in subjects like mathematics and physics, but it is difficult to provide similar feedback in writing, aesthetics, and arts.

Innovative Approaches to Online Humanities Education:
Historically educational games can be used to engage students in interactive learning. Strategy games based on real historical data allow students to reenact and analyze historical events. This approach can be effective in teaching history, especially to younger students.

Disruption and Transformation:
Online education is expected to bring about significant disruption and transformation in the higher education sector. However, the improvement in education may not solely come from online education.

The Importance of High-Quality Education:
High-quality education is crucial for the betterment of society and the future of the United States. The US higher education system is considered one of the greatest industries, along with aerospace and information technology. It plays a vital role not only in educating individuals but also in conducting research and fostering non-complementary activities in universities.

Alacartization of Higher Education:
The alacartization of higher education, similar to the alacartization of newspapers, may lead to a mixed outcome. It raises questions about how other important aspects of education, which may not be directly profitable, will be funded or supported.

Online Gizmos vs. Classic Literature:
While online educational tools and technologies have their appeal, the importance of reading classic literature, such as “War and Peace,” in higher education is emphasized. Engaging students with great works of literature can significantly improve their education.

Education as a Transformative Force:
Education has the potential to bring about positive societal changes, including reducing the likelihood of wars. By providing high-quality education to everyone, individuals can reap lifelong benefits and contribute to a more peaceful world.

The Global Need for Education:
The world’s working population is vastly underserved in terms of access to higher education, with less than 10% having a college degree. Even those with a college degree face educational needs due to longer life spans, thanks to modern medicine.

Beyond the Debate:
The discussion on the future of higher education should transcend the narrow focus on replacing or critiquing existing professors and institutions. The broader perspective is to consider the transformative impact of education in bringing peace, prosperity, and opportunities for people worldwide.