Sebastian Thrun (Kitty Hawk Founder) – The Future of Flight (Oct 2019)

Chapters

Abstract

“The Sky’s the Limit: The Future of Urban Air Mobility and the Road to Flying Cars”

The prospect of flying cars, once a staple of science fiction, is gradually inching towards reality, driven by advancements in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles. This emerging technology, spearheaded by companies like Kitty Hawk and visionaries like Sebastian Thrun, promises to revolutionize urban transportation by offering a solution to traffic congestion, reducing travel times, and enhancing the quality of life in cities. However, this innovation faces significant challenges, including safety concerns, noise pollution, regulatory hurdles, and societal acceptance. In this comprehensive exploration, we delve into the current state of flying vehicle technology, focusing on Kitty Hawk’s Heaviside project, the envisioned air taxi system, and the broader implications for urban mobility.

The Current State of Flying Vehicles

Despite the exciting concept of flying cars, they remain a distant reality, grappling with technological and safety challenges similar to those faced by autonomous vehicles. Industry leaders, including Sebastian Thrun, are now pivoting their focus towards flying vehicles as a more feasible option. Significant strides have been made, as exemplified by Kitty Hawk’s Heaviside project, which represents a crucial step in the development of quieter, more efficient urban air mobility.

Advantages and Potential of Flying Vehicles

Flying vehicles offer the remarkable advantage of easing traffic congestion by utilizing the expansive airspace above cities. This innovation has the potential to significantly reduce travel times, facilitating quick and efficient movement between cities and regions. The Heaviside project exemplifies these advantages, being a hybrid aircraft that merges drone and fixed-wing aircraft characteristics to achieve impressive range and energy efficiency.

Technological and Safety Challenges

The safety of flying vehicles is a paramount concern that requires extensive testing and regulatory approvals. Urban environments pose additional challenges such as noise pollution, which must be addressed to gain societal acceptance. Kitty Hawk’s efforts in minimizing noise to nearly imperceptible levels are crucial in this regard. Additionally, technological hurdles in developing affordable and efficient flying vehicles are critical barriers to their widespread adoption.

Regulatory and Societal Hurdles

Integrating flying vehicles into existing transportation systems demands navigating complex regulatory frameworks. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is instrumental in setting guidelines for safe operation, incident management, and pilot qualifications. Gaining societal acceptance, especially concerning noise and visual impact, is vital for the seamless integration of these vehicles into daily life.

The Vision of Air Taxis and Urban Air Mobility

Sebastian Thrun’s leadership at Kitty Hawk is driving the transformation of urban transportation through an air taxi system. This system promises not just faster travel but also heightened productivity and better utilization of urban spaces. Kitty Hawk aims to address urban congestion by tapping into the vast potential of three-dimensional airspace, creating numerous vertical lanes without extensive ground infrastructure.

Implementation Timeline and Public Perception

In places like New Zealand, where Kitty Hawk is collaborating with regulators, the implementation of remotely piloted air taxi systems is expected within three to five years. In the U.S., however, timelines are more variable due to an evolving regulatory environment. Public perception, particularly regarding noise pollution and visual impact, is critical in transitioning to these new systems, with benefits like time savings, convenience, and cost-effectiveness being key considerations.

Challenges of Integrating Flying Vehicles

Integrating flying vehicles safely into urban settings involves addressing various obstacles such as overhead wires and ensuring regulatory compliance. Collaboration with authorities and other tech companies is essential to redefine airspace management. The FAA’s role in managing national airspace and the necessity for technology that can safely manage a large number of vehicles are also significant considerations.

Economic Potential of Air Taxi Systems

Air taxi systems could significantly reduce transportation costs per mile, potentially rivaling the cost of car ownership. By sharing flying vehicles in an air taxi system, vehicle utilization and efficiency can be increased, leading to cost reductions.

Overcoming Regulatory Hurdles

Engaging with regulatory authorities to align safety and innovation interests is crucial for compliance. Collaboration with experienced companies like Boeing is important for developing market-ready technology. Learning from successful regulatory models, such as New Zealand’s framework for remotely piloted air taxi systems, is beneficial.

Automation and Air Traffic Control

The automation potential in air traffic control, particularly using transponders to track flying vehicles, is a significant aspect to consider. The feasibility of autonomous flying vehicles, which require simpler technology compared to self-driving cars, is also noteworthy.

Addressing Concerns about Congestion and Aesthetics

Utilizing 3D airspace over 1D roads allows for significantly more lanes, reducing congestion. The speed of flying vehicles lessens the time spent in the air, addressing traffic density concerns. Moreover, the potential positive impact on urban skylines and faster commutes are also factors to consider.

Public Acceptance and Willingness to Adopt

The appeal of flying vehicles to commuters who prioritize time and convenience is a factor to consider. Balancing innovation with the preservation of urban aesthetics is a challenge that must be addressed.

Sebastian Thrun’s Aspirations for the Future

Sebastian Thrun is unwavering in his commitment to making flying cars a reality. He views flying cars as a significant business opportunity and a transformative technology that can greatly benefit society by enabling faster transportation. Thrun’s focus is solely on this project, with no other aspirations or goals currently disclosed. In two years, when he returns to the stage, the conversation will likely still revolve around flying cars, with Thrun expecting significant progress, possibly including a flying car prototype.

The Road Ahead

The journey towards realizing the dream of flying cars, led by Sebastian Thrun and Kitty Hawk, is marked by a blend of technological innovation, regulatory changes, and societal adaptation. While considerable progress has been made, particularly with projects like Heaviside, the path forward is filled with both challenges and opportunities. The success of urban air mobility depends on overcoming these obstacles and effectively integrating these novel transportation systems into our daily lives, potentially reshaping the urban landscape and our approach to city living.

Notes by: Ain