Sebastian Thrun (Kitty Hawk Corporation CEO) – Future of Flight (Jan 2020)

Chapters

Abstract

The Transformative Future of Urban Transportation: From Self-Driving Cars to Flying Cars

The Dawn of Self-Driving Cars: Sebastian Thrun’s Personal Journey

At the forefront of autonomous vehicle technology stands Sebastian Thrun, a pioneer in artificial intelligence and robotics. His personal journey in the development of self-driving cars began with the DARPA Grand Challenge, a competition that marked a significant milestone in the history of autonomous vehicles. In 2005, Thrun’s team, driving a Volkswagen Touareg named Stanley, triumphed in the 131-mile course, proving the feasibility of self-driving technology. This success led to the formation of Waymo, a Google venture, aimed at navigating public roads safely with autonomous cars.

Rekindling the German Automotive Industry: Thrun’s contributions to the DLD conference over the past nine years have been notable, with his focus on the energy and visionary spirit of German founders.

Waymo’s Technological Breakthroughs and Safety Achievements

Waymo, born from the success of the DARPA Grand Challenge, has since accumulated over 20 million miles of road testing, showcasing the reliability and safety of its self-driving cars. These vehicles, equipped with advanced sensors, cameras, and AI algorithms, demonstrate a superior safety record compared to human drivers, navigating complex traffic scenarios with remarkable efficiency.

Ernst Dickmanns and the DARPA Grand Challenge: Thrun’s first encounter with Ernst Dickmanns, the pioneer of self-driving cars, was at a robotics conference in Hildesheim. The DARPA Grand Challenge was initially perceived as a frivolous endeavor but later became a transformative competition in the field.

Stanford’s Stanley and the First DARPA Grand Challenge Win: Thrun introduces Stanley, the self-driving car developed by Stanford University in collaboration with Volkswagen. Despite Volkswagen’s initial involvement, they failed to recognize the revolutionary potential of the technology.

The Evolution of Self-Driving Cars: Thrun discusses the growing interest in self-driving cars, leading to the establishment of Waymo, Google’s self-driving car project. He emphasizes Waymo’s technological advancements and their recent milestone of reaching 20 million miles driven with minimal accidents.

Beyond Roadways: The Challenge of Urban Congestion

Despite the advancements in self-driving technology, Thrun identifies a crucial challenge: urban congestion. He posits that merely replacing human drivers with autonomous cars won’t solve traffic congestion and might even exacerbate it due to increased mobility. His solution? A leap into the field of flying cars, inspired by “The Jetsons,” offering a vision of personal aerial vehicles soaring above congested roads.

The Problem of Traffic Congestion: Thrun identifies a fundamental problem with self-driving cars: their inability to eliminate traffic congestion. He cites Brad Templeton’s observation that increased accessibility to mobility leads to more usage and, consequently, more congestion.

Inspiration from “The Jetsons” and the Concept of Flying Cars: Thrun proposes a solution inspired by the futuristic cartoon “The Jetsons”: levitating vehicles that can rise above traffic. He acknowledges the skepticism from automotive industry leaders but emphasizes the potential of this concept to revolutionize transportation.

Germany’s Role in Flying Car Development

Acknowledging the global effort in transforming transportation, Thrun highlights Germany’s significant contributions, with companies like Lilium and Volocopter leading in the development of flying cars. This international collaboration underlines the necessity of a unified approach in pioneering transformative technologies.

Germany’s Contributions to Flying Car Development: Thrun highlights Germany’s significant contributions to the development of flying cars, citing companies like Linium and Volocopter. He refutes the notion that Germany is lagging behind in transportation evolution and acknowledges their leadership in this emerging field.

Steffi’s Vision: Urban Air Taxis and Advanced Aerial Vehicles

Parallel to Thrun’s vision, Steffi introduces the concept of urban air taxis, a future where commutes transform into aerial journeys. She discusses an advanced electric-powered vehicle with tilt rotors, exhibiting impressive specifications like a 102-mile range, vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, and a top speed of 175 mph. This innovation offers a glimpse into a future of efficient, quiet, and quick urban travel.

Vision: Transforming urban transportation with electric air taxis that function as flying taxis, eliminating the need for driving to work.

Latest Vehicle Development: A new vehicle with tilt rotors that takes off and lands vertically, transitioning from helicopter to airplane in mid-flight. Longest range achieved so far, at 102 miles plus reserves. Extremely quiet, with noise levels lower than a library when flying overhead.

Capabilities: Electrically propelled, demonstrating 102 miles plus 30% reserves with a 22-foot wingspan. Energy usage of 83 watt-hours per mile, more economical than Tesla. Max speed of approximately 175 miles per hour. Payload capacity of one person plus a suitcase.

The Promise of Time and Cost Savings

Steffi emphasizes the significant time and cost savings potential of personal aerial vehicles. Reducing commute times by approximately 150-160 hours per year and offering cost-per-mile efficiency surpassing traditional car ownership, these vehicles present a compelling case for a shift in urban mobility.

Time Savings and Cost: Personal air vehicles can significantly reduce commute times by cutting miles and traffic congestion. Cost per mile for personal air vehicles is projected to be competitive with car ownership and may even be lower in mass production.

Addressing Safety and Air Congestion Concerns

Contrary to common beliefs, Steffi argues that flying is inherently safer than road travel, citing the excellent safety record of commercial aviation. She also addresses concerns about potential air congestion, explaining that the three-dimensional nature of airspace allows for more efficient vehicle movement, reducing the likelihood of traffic jams seen on roads.

Speed and Efficiency: Contrary to popular belief, faster flying actually conserves energy due to reduced induced drag. The vehicle’s speed and efficiency make it a viable option for long-distance travel.

Safety: Steffi emphasizes the safety of flying compared to ground transportation, citing statistics showing significantly fewer fatalities in commercial aviation. The three-dimensional nature of air travel reduces the risk of collisions and allows for more flexible maneuvering.

Addressing Concerns: Steffi acknowledges concerns about noise pollution and potential traffic congestion in the air. She suggests using electric motors to reduce noise and implementing advanced air traffic management systems to ensure safe and efficient coordination of vehicles.

Embracing the Future of Transportation

In conclusion, the combined visions of Thrun and Steffi paint a picture of a future where urban transportation is revolutionized by both self-driving and personal aerial vehicles. Their emphasis on collaboration, open-mindedness, and embracing new technologies calls for a unified effort in overcoming present limitations and unlocking the full potential of these transformative modes of transport. This future, free from the constraints of traffic congestion, promises a more efficient, safe, and sustainable urban landscape, inviting us to reimagine our daily commutes and the very fabric of city life.

Notes by: Ain