Saudi Perspective on Iran Nuclear Deal:
Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud advises the new president not to rip up the Iran nuclear deal. He argues that the deal is a first step towards a nuclear-free Middle East and that it provides a respite of 15 years to work on a more permanent solution.

US Policy Options:
Elliot Cohen believes the president can tear up the deal, but it would be disruptive and could harm US credibility. He expects the new administration to enforce the provisions of the deal more strictly and view it as part of a broader Iran policy.

Egypt’s View of Iran:
Nabeel Fahmy agrees that the Iran nuclear deal is a step forward, but not enough. He is concerned about Iran’s aggressive regional policies and wants to link the deal to Iran’s behavior in the region.

Iran’s Regional Influence:
Mohsen Milani argues that Iran has become a major regional power due to US mistakes and Iranian opportunism. He believes the nuclear deal was a win-win for all parties and had nothing to do with Iran’s regional policies. He sees Iran as a spoiler player that can make it difficult for the US and Saudi Arabia to achieve their ambitions in the region.

Saudi Arabia’s Response to the New Administration:
Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud says it’s premature to judge the new administration’s actions. He agrees that the Iran nuclear deal must be policed to ensure Iran’s compliance. He is unsure whether President-elect Trump shares the same regional views as Saudi Arabia, given his call with the Russian leader and disparaging remarks about Syrian rebels.

Introduction:
Turki bin Faisal Al Saud suggests that the President-elect should visit Middle Eastern allies before taking office to understand their concerns and perspectives. He believes this approach is better than relying on experts who may have biases or agendas.

Advice to the President-elect:
Turki bin Faisal Al Saud advises the President-elect to pack a bag and visit America’s friends in the Middle East. He should listen directly to their concerns, ideas, and prognostications on how to deal with issues. This will help the President-elect make informed decisions before being deluged with opinions from experts who may have biased agendas.

Elliot’s Perspective:
Elliot is hesitant to provide specific advice, as he recognizes that there is no ideal policy that can be executed by everyone. He believes that the best policy depends on the individuals who will be responsible for executing it. Elliot suggests that the President-elect’s approach will differ based on the experience and knowledge of the team he assembles.

Conclusion:
The discussion highlights the importance of understanding different perspectives and considering the practical aspects of implementing policies. It emphasizes the need for a President-elect to gather information and insights from various sources before making decisions.

The Importance of Alliances:
Alliances are crucial for the United States’ position in the world, and they require constant tending and understanding. Neglecting alliances can lead to frustration and hinder effective foreign policy. Establishing relationships with key players in the Middle East is essential for conducting foreign policy.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach:
A Trump-like foreign policy is expected, focusing on realpolitik and dealing with reality rather than ideological goals. This approach may differ from the policies of previous presidents, both in terms of strategy and perspective. The president-elect is likely to pursue a strategic policy that views the Middle East as a partner, not an adversary.

Middle Eastern Capacity Building:
The Middle East needs support from the United States, but it cannot rely solely on American intervention. Building capacity within Middle Eastern countries will enable them to better address their own problems and become more effective partners. American foreign policy should aim to make Middle Easterners better partners by addressing security, economic, and education issues.

Strategic Policy vs. Tactical Policies:
The Middle East needs a strategic policy that addresses long-term issues rather than tactical policies focused on short-term objectives. The region is undergoing significant turmoil that cannot be resolved quickly. A strategic policy should focus on the long-term interests of the United States and its allies in the region.

Iran’s Reaction to Trump’s Presidency:
Iranians have expressed shock, entertainment, and alarm at Trump’s election. Iranian officials have acknowledged Trump’s belief in deliberate uncertainty and are adjusting their policies accordingly. Iran’s Supreme Leader has emphasized the need for preparedness and vigilance in dealing with Trump’s presidency.

Iranian Leadership’s Perception of President-Elect Trump:
Iranian leaders are cautious about making judgments about President-elect Trump due to limited information. They view him as a businessman and believe he may eventually come to terms with Iran’s importance in regional issues. They expect Trump to prioritize the fight against ISIS, potentially leading to cooperation with Russia and Iran, who are allies in Syria.

Iran’s Potential Response to Abrogation of Nuclear Agreement:
Iran believes it can strike a deal with President-elect Trump, but is prepared to revert to hostility if the nuclear agreement is abrogated. Abrogating the agreement would benefit hardliners in Iran, but is unlikely to result in new sanctions due to the agreement’s international support.

Saudi Arabia’s Concerns about Trump’s Policy in Syria:
Saudi Arabia fears that Trump’s cooperation with Russia and Iran in Syria could harm Syrian civilians. They emphasize that Bashar al-Assad and his allies, including Iran, are the primary perpetrators of violence against Syrian people. Saudi Arabia hopes Trump will consult with America’s allies in the Middle East before making decisions about Syria.

Iranian Adventurism Post-Nuclear Deal:
Saudi Arabia has observed increased Iranian involvement in regional conflicts after the nuclear deal. They believe Iran has expanded its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, potentially threatening regional stability.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Involvement in Syria:
Turki bin Faisal Al Saud asserted that Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops are present in Syria, responsible for the deaths of many Syrians. Al Saud highlighted that this influx of Iranian forces has occurred after the Iran nuclear deal, spanning nearly a year. Mohsen Milani initially expressed uncertainty about the presence of Iranian troops in Syria but later acknowledged their involvement.

The Complexity of the Syrian Civil War:
Milani emphasized the need to recognize the complexity of the Syrian conflict, beyond simply portraying it as a struggle between good and evil. He pointed out that the conflict involves multiple actors, including Iran, Russia, and other groups receiving financial support and weapons from various sources. Milani stressed that blaming only one party and ignoring others leads to ongoing disasters in the Middle East.

Iran-Saudi Arabia Cold War and Its Implications:
Milani compared the current Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry to the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, emphasizing that it is a political, economic, and cultural conflict. He argued that neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia has the power to significantly undermine the other, resulting in a prolonged stalemate. Milani emphasized the need for Iran and Saudi Arabia to come together to end their cold war, as their continued conflict fuels support for groups killing innocent Syrians.

Egypt’s Foreign Policy:
Deborah Amos observed that Egypt seems to be repositioning closer to Russia and Iran than Saudi Arabia. Nabeel Fahmy, a former Egyptian Foreign Minister, clarified that Egypt’s multi-partner foreign policy aims to increase friendships and ensure freedom of decision-making. Fahmy stressed that there is no comparison between Egypt’s relations with Saudi Arabia and those with Iran.

US Policy Differences with Saudi Arabia and Iran:
US relations with Saudi Arabia are much stronger than with Iran. Some experts argue that Iran has become more aggressive in the region. The US is seeking to improve relations with both Saudi Arabia and the US simultaneously.

Promoting Dialogue Between Iran and Saudi Arabia:
Engaging in an Iranian-Saudi dialogue would be beneficial. However, Saudi Arabia’s concerns about Iran must be addressed. Iran needs to take positive steps in implementing the Iranian-Saudi security protocol.

Addressing Turkish-Egyptian Dialogue:
A Turkish-Egyptian dialogue is also important. Non-interference in internal affairs of states must be assured.

Importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran:
Saudi Arabia and Iran are both important countries in the region. Continuous clashes between them are detrimental to the region.

Addressing the Moving Parts in the Middle East:
US military and security forces are actively engaged in the Middle East. Foreign policy decisions must consider these ongoing military operations.

Presidential Outlook on Middle East Policy:
The Trump administration is likely to pursue a “hands-off” approach to the Middle East, focusing on counterterrorism rather than broad engagement. The Middle East’s interconnectedness means that even a limited engagement can lead to significant involvement. The new administration will initially focus on domestic priorities, such as repealing Obamacare, defense buildup, and infrastructure projects.

Middle East Complexities:
The region is experiencing shifting alliances, with Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia cooperating closely. The reemergence of Russia as a major player adds further complexity to the region’s dynamics. The Obama administration’s quiet exit leaves room for President Trump to make significant policy changes.

Obama’s Remaining Options:
There are opportunities for President Obama to take action before the end of his term. Potential actions include continuing peace efforts between Israelis and Palestinians, addressing the Syrian refugee crisis, and shaping the fight against ISIS.

Options for Obama’s Foreign Policy in the Next Two Months:
Recognize the State of Palestine: This would change the Middle East paradigm but is unlikely to happen. Coach the Incoming Administration: Obama could mentor President-elect Trump on being the President of the United States, but this could lead to conflict and tension. Submit a Resolution to the Security Council or General Assembly: This could recognize the Palestinian state and the illegality of settlements, but it could weaken the UN Security Council.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal:
Obama’s greatest foreign policy legacy is the Iranian nuclear deal. Obama should accelerate Iranian reintegration into the world economy to protect this legacy.

Current State of Iran’s Economy and Foreign Policy:
Iran offers an attractive market for Western investment. Integrating Iran into the global economy could moderate its foreign policy, similar to the case of China. This integration would also help sustain the nuclear deal and improve regional stability.

US Military Operation against Daesh:
Liberation of Mosul is crucial in the fight against Daesh. Extending the operation to Syria would be beneficial, and Saudi Arabia is willing to participate in such efforts.

Challenges beyond the Mosul Offensive:
Reconstruction and governance of Mosul pose significant challenges. Preventing the resurgence of militant groups in the region is essential. Future conflicts may arise due to the complex political dynamics involving Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turks.

Addressing Extremism and Terrorism:
Beyond military victories, countering extremism and terrorism requires a broader approach. Libya is another area of concern regarding extremism and terrorism. Daesh may shift to traditional terrorism, using fear as a political tool. It’s crucial to address extremism and terrorism beyond the Mosul battle.

Preserving Nation State System:
Maintaining the nation-state system in the Middle East is a strategic priority. Addressing ethnic concerns must be balanced with preserving national unity. Avoiding a domino effect of conflicts is essential.

Post-ISIL Mosul:
The military operation against ISIL in Mosul is likely to succeed, but the challenge lies in the aftermath. The Iraqi government, Iranian-backed militias, and Shiites must sincerely cooperate and share power in running Mosul and its province to prevent future conflicts. A successful power-sharing model in Mosul could serve as a positive example for other parts of Iraq and Syria.

Yemen:
Saudi Arabia’s concern about Yemen’s security is understandable, given its proximity. Resolution 2216 provides a framework for achieving a stable peace in Yemen. However, the situation is unclear as reports of a ceasefire contradict statements from the Yemeni foreign minister.

Resolution 2216:
Resolution 2216 is an international agreement that sets the terms for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Yemen. It calls for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Houthi forces from key cities, and the formation of a unity government.

Ceasefire and Policing Mechanism:
The expert emphasized the need for a policing mechanism to enforce any ceasefire agreement in Yemen. Without a policing mechanism, the ceasefire will likely be ineffective and violations will continue. The mechanism should be able to determine responsibility for violations and prevent future violations.

Withdrawal of Houthi Forces:
Resolution 2216 demands that Houthi forces withdraw from occupied cities, release seized weapons, and free prisoners. A ceasefire without a policing mechanism will not ensure compliance with these demands.

Egypt’s Reluctance to Deploy Troops:
Egypt is unwilling to send troops to Yemen as part of a peacekeeping force. While Egypt supports the coalition forces in Yemen, it believes that Arabs should take a more proactive role in finding a political solution.

Arab Involvement in Peacekeeping:
The expert suggests that Arab countries should contribute to peacekeeping forces in Yemen and other regional conflicts. Arab participation in peacekeeping would demonstrate their commitment to regional security and stability.

Stopping Iranian Influence:
The expert was asked about ways to counter Iranian influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain. The expert declined to comment on Saudi Arabia’s alleged support for the Iranian PKK, stating that she did not have personal knowledge of the matter.

Geography and Religion:
Saudi Arabia and Iran have an unchangeable relationship due to their geographical proximity and shared Islamic faith, including a belief in the Prophet Muhammad and the Quran. Ironically, since the Khomeini revolution, Iran has been ruled by black turban-wearing leaders, indicating descent from the Prophet Muhammad, while being in conflict with Arabs.

Saudi Arabia’s Desire for Peace:
Saudi Arabia wants peace and stability in the region, including within Iran. Saudi Arabia does not want Iran to experience centrifugal forces like Iraq, where sectarian and ethnic divisions have caused societal strife. Saudi Arabia wants to ensure that Iran remains a constructive player in the region, which requires the Iranian people to demand it from their leadership.

Support for Groups Operating in Iran:
Saudi Arabia denies providing support to groups operating within Iran, including Kurdish, Arab, Baluchi, and Azerbaijani groups. The primary concern is preventing Iran from being torn apart by internal divisions, which would negatively impact neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.

Foreign Support for Ethnic Groups:
Historically, regional powers like the British and Russians have attempted to destabilize Iran by supporting various ethnic groups within the country. Recently, there has been a resurgence of this activity, with unknown parties providing support to Iranian Kurds, Baluchis, and Arabs, leading to increased anti-government activity. Additionally, some countries are providing support to the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, an organization considered an existential threat by Iran, which is a dangerous game as it invites retaliation.

Condemnation of Destabilizing Actions:
The speaker condemns all forms of intervention in Iran and Iranian intervention in other countries, emphasizing that this tit-for-tat approach only leads to further instability. He urges all parties to cease supporting elements aimed at destabilizing other countries in the region.

Acknowledging Assumptions and Changing Policies:
The speaker suggests that all three parties, Egypt, Iran, and Riyadh, should reflect on their policies and identify assumptions that may have been incorrect, leading to negative consequences. They should be willing to change these policies to improve their ability to achieve their interests.

Potential Actions under the New American Administration:
In light of the incoming American administration, the speaker encourages all parties to consider actions they can take to enhance their capacity to achieve their interests. While this question is challenging, the speaker emphasizes the importance of proactive engagement and diplomacy in addressing regional issues.

Importance of Arab Cooperation:
Nabil Fahmy’s proposal for Arab cooperation should be pursued to address differences and conflicts. Removing trade barriers within the Arab world could significantly increase intra-regional trade. The GCC should prioritize unification to enhance stability and address regional challenges.

US Role in the Middle East:
The US should adopt a realistic approach to the Middle East, recognizing the challenges and complexities of the region. A cold-blooded assessment of what is possible in the Middle East is necessary to avoid wishful thinking and ineffective policies. Detaching from the Middle East would be detrimental, given its strategic importance and potential consequences.

Managing Change and National Security Deficits:
The Arab world needs to address its managing change and national security deficits. Managing change effectively and leading rather than reacting to events is crucial for regional stability. Reducing over-reliance on foreign entities for national security and enhancing regional self-reliance are essential. Being more self-dependent and regionally dependent would enable the Arab world to become better partners and interlocutors with the international community.

Preserving Nation-States and Arab Leadership:
Preserving the nation-state system requires addressing internal problems and developing models tailored to regional needs and constituencies. The lack of Arab leadership in resolving regional conflicts like Libya, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Syria, and Yemen is concerning. The Arab world needs to come up with specific proposals to move forward and engage others in addressing regional challenges. The expanded Arab League, with 22 member states, requires consideration of diverse opinions and perspectives. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have a significant role in addressing regional issues and promoting stability.

Engagement Between Egypt and Saudi Arabia:
The need for increased strategic engagement and dialogue between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is emphasized. Leadership changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia have led to issues that require resolution. More intensive contacts between these countries are strongly supported.

Over-Militarization and Despotism in the Middle East:
Excessive militarization in the region, driven by countries spending excessively, is noted. Historical examples of militarization’s negative consequences, such as Iran in the 1970s, are cited. Despotism and insufficient respect for human rights are also prevalent, including in Iran.

Self-Responsibility and Solving Problems:
The importance of recognizing internal problems in the Middle East is emphasized. Blaming others for problems hinders the ability to solve them.

Public Perception of Egypt-US Relations:
Egyptians favoring President Trump during the election due to perceived support for President el-Sisi and opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood are mentioned. Expectations of improved relations with the United States under President Trump are noted.

Reasons for Egyptian Preference for President Trump:
Egyptians preferred President-elect Trump due to dissatisfaction with American policies and the perception that Secretary Clinton represented a continuation of the existing political system. Factors beyond the position on extremism influenced this preference.

Overall Assessment of Regional Relations:
Middle Easterners who met President Trump and Secretary Clinton may feel somewhat comfortable but unsatisfied with both candidates.

Speaker 09’s Opinion on the Trump Presidency:
Speaker 09 warns against Egyptians becoming overly enthusiastic about either candidate. He cautioned against assuming that institutions will always control presidents. Speaker 09 predicted that people would be less satisfied with the Trump presidency after six months. He anticipated more support for US involvement against extremism, but concerns about American involvement in the region.

Speaker 02’s Opinion on the Trump Presidency:
Speaker 02 agreed with Speaker 09’s analysis but emphasized taking the candidate’s words seriously. He interpreted Trump’s “America first” stance as a departure from previous internationalist norms. Speaker 02 expressed uncertainty about the extent of departure from previous norms, noting the desire in the media to normalize the situation.

Speaker 09’s Response:
Speaker 09 agreed with Speaker 02’s assessment and cautioned Egyptians against assuming continuity. He emphasized the importance of building domestic strength and engaging with whoever is president.

Potential Implications for US Allies:
Deborah Amos raised the possibility of US allies reassessing their relationships and acting more independently.

Speaker 02’s View on Nuclear Proliferation:
Speaker 02 suggested that Trump’s statements on nuclear weapons could lead some countries, including in the Middle East, to reconsider their nuclear options. He noted that this would be a transformative development for the region and beyond.

Regional Specialists’ Perspective:
Turki bin Faisal Al Saud emphasized the need for regional countries to focus on internal stability and address issues like failing states and the breakdown of nation states. He believed that by addressing these internal issues, the region could withstand unpredictable policies from the US, Russia, or Europe.

Change and Unpredictability:
The unexpected victories of Trump and Sanders indicate a strong desire for change in America. Unpredictability is inevitable due to these shifts and the end of the Cold War, which removed a clear enemy.

Explaining Foreign Policy:
Selling the importance of foreign policy expenditures in places like Mali to constituents in the farm belt is difficult without a direct threat. The U.S. has traditionally explained foreign policy in terms of threats rather than opportunities. The search for a new threat, such as Putin, reflects this need to justify foreign policy.

Russia’s Foreign Policy:
Russian foreign policy has shifted from ideological to focusing on immediate gains in national security. Russia engages in trade but does not provide aid, unlike the U.S.

Unpredictability and Iran:
Some elements in Iran view Trump’s unpredictability as beneficial, believing it will harm American allies. They argue that Iran has prepared for various scenarios, including negotiations, overthrow attempts, and even a possible U.S. invasion. For these elements, unpredictability is seen as an advantage for Iran.