Automation and Wages:
Automation drives the demand for labor, especially for human labor, down. Shift in supply of labor as fewer people work. Demand or supply curve shift mostly determines future wages.

Bots and Jobs:
Claims of robots stealing jobs have been around for over a century. Recent coverage of labor shortages in America.

Baby Boomers and Women:
Baby boomers and women entering labor force were two major 20th-century labor market shocks. These events made it relatively easy to find workers in the 20th century. Due to retirement and leveled-off participation rates, the 21st century will have a tight labor market.

Overall Impact:
Change in labor supply caused by the aging population and women’s participation rates will lead to a tight, rather than loose, labor market. This will significantly influence how the economy functions in the 21st century.

Automation’s Impact on Jobs:
Automation primarily eliminates dull, repetitive tasks, not entire jobs. For instance, washing clothes, once a labor-intensive task, is now mostly automated. Cognitive tasks like making change and memorizing maps are also obsolete due to technology.

Elimination of Occupations:
A study of occupations in the 1950s revealed only one job that had been completely eliminated: elevator operator. Elevator operators performed tasks beyond operating elevators, such as safety monitoring and greeting people. These tasks were redistributed among other occupations, such as receptionists and security personnel.

Variety of Tasks in Occupations:
Most jobs consist of a variety of tasks, each requiring different skills. Gardener jobs, for example, involve diverse tasks listed in the ONET database, including pruning, shaping plants, and removing litter. Automating all these tasks is challenging, making complete job replacement unlikely in the near future.

Standardizing Tasks for Automation:
For automation to be feasible, tasks often need to be simplified and standardized. Orchards, traditionally less structured, are now designed with short trees and rows for efficient human and machine operations.

Automating Tasks vs. Entire Jobs:
Studies on job automation yield varied results due to different perspectives on task levels. Many studies focus on whether individual tasks within a job can be automated, rather than the entire job.

Job Loss Estimates and Prevalence of Low-Wage Jobs:
Estimates of job loss due to automation vary widely among different sources. In the US, 10 common occupations, including retail salesperson and cashier, account for 21% of employment. Of these, only registered nurses earn more than the median wage.

Potential for Leisure Time and Workweek Flexibility:
Concerns about mass leisure time due to automation can be addressed through flexible work arrangements. The Netherlands, with a 29-hour workweek, offers a successful example of part-time work institutionalization.

Education and Training in the Digital Age:
Training and education remain crucial despite labor demand and supply balance. YouTube serves as a valuable platform for free and accessible education, with one billion views of how-to videos daily.

Economic Output and Employment Trends:
Economic output per person is influenced by productivity, employment, and the participation rate. U.S. is experiencing full employment, but the participation rate is declining due to retirements. Productivity growth has been slow, and traditional productivity gains may not be sufficient to address current challenges. Automation and AI offer potential solutions to boost productivity and output per worker.

Labor Force Growth Trends:
The growth of the U.S. labor force has been declining since the 1970s. The 2020s are expected to witness the slowest labor force growth in history. Population growth continues, but the labor force is expanding at a slower pace. This means individuals who remain in the workforce will need to generate more output to support retirees and others not actively employed.

Demographic Shifts and Regional Impacts:
Baby boomers are retiring and expect to maintain their consumption levels, placing increased pressure on those still in the workforce. Birth rates in the U.S. are at an all-time low, affecting the labor supply in the long term. Regional variations in population growth are significant, with states like Utah, Nevada, and Texas experiencing higher growth compared to aging regions like New England.

Aging Population and Dependency Ratios:
The number of people over 65 per 100 working-age individuals is increasing globally. Asian countries like China, Japan, and Taiwan face severe demographic challenges due to the one-child policy. European countries, including Spain, Italy, and Germany, also have high dependency ratios. An aging population can have significant implications for standards of living and economic growth.

Automation and AI Adoption in Response to Labor Shortages:
Countries with demographic challenges are embracing automation and AI to address labor shortages. Robots are increasingly used in industries like automotive manufacturing and consumer electronics assembly. The demand for robots is driven by the need to replace workers who are not available or in sufficient numbers.

Relative Impact on Labor Demand:
A study from Boston Consulting Group suggests that the employment to population ratio will decline due to automation in the next decade. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that demographic effects will have a larger impact on labor demand than automation in the short to medium term. Economic models should consider demographic trends when assessing the demand side of the labor market and the impact of automation and AI.

As the population ages, the number of people over 65 in the U.S. is expected to double from 46 million to 98 million by 2060. This aging population will bring significant challenges, including increased healthcare costs and a growing prevalence of Alzheimer’s and other health problems.

Need for Public Education on Technological Advancements:
There is a need to educate the public about the true impact of technological advancements on employment. Many people fear that robots will replace human workers and lead to widespread joblessness. However, this fear is largely unfounded.

Economic Opportunities in the Midwest:
The Midwest, which has been historically dependent on manufacturing, needs to adapt to the changing economic landscape. By investing in education and technology, the Midwest can create new opportunities in sectors such as healthcare, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing.

Healthcare Dominance:
Hospitals will play a critical role in the viability of cities. Healthcare will likely become the largest and most expensive industry, influencing regions and economies.

Minimum Income Considerations:
Minimum income or wage requirements should consider geographic cost-of-living differences. Regional tensions may arise due to variations in supply and demand for workers and healthcare facilities.

High-Skilled Jobs and Automation:
The U-shaped employment-skill graph shows rising wages for low-skill workers and high-skill workers like roboticists and researchers. Automation may impact mid-skill jobs, leading to slower growth in these roles. Creative jobs may emerge, driving a race between computers and knowledge workers.

Shorter Work Weeks:
Increased productivity might enable shorter work weeks, as demonstrated by countries like the Netherlands and Germany.

Wealth Disparity and Technology:
New technologies, like AI and IT, contribute to wealth disparities, similar to historical examples like the automobile revolution. Redistributive taxation and policies are important in mitigating these disparities.

The Changing Scale of Inequality:
The number of wealthy individuals has increased significantly compared to the middle class and the poor. It may be challenging to implement policies that address wealth inequality due to the influence and power that wealth confers.

Globalization and Technological Effects:
Globalization and technological advancements have amplified the effects of wealth inequality. Companies have become global, leading to a wider reach and impact of economic disparities.

Ownership of Machines and Value Creation:
Machines are becoming increasingly affordable, making them accessible to a broader population. The cost of machines could decrease dramatically, similar to the price reduction of cars like the Model T. Multiple individuals could potentially own robots for tasks such as lawn mowing or other chores.

Sustainability and Economic Growth:
Economic growth and population growth are often linked. As the population levels off, economic growth may also slow down. Education of women is a key factor in population growth rates. A shift towards sustainability and meaning may lead to changes in economic growth patterns.

Technological Change and Re-skilling Friction:
Rapid technological change can lead to friction in re-education and re-skilling. A short-term mismatch between current skills and future job requirements may occur. Jobs may evolve to involve exception handling and problem-solving tasks.

Automation and Job Roles:
Automation has led to changes in job roles, such as in packaging and manufacturing. Humans play a crucial role in handling exceptions and dealing with unforeseen circumstances. Machines can automate routine tasks, while humans focus on problem-solving and decision-making.

The Impact of Automation on Jobs:
Contrary to popular belief, automation does not lead to a sudden job loss but rather a gradual shift. Automation eliminates dull, repetitive tasks, enabling workers to multitask and take on more engaging responsibilities.

Historical Parallels:
The domestic revolution at the end of the 19th century saw the introduction of appliances that freed up women from household chores, leading to increased participation in the paid labor market.

The Myth of Wealth Disparity:
Wealth statistics depend heavily on demand. If incomes were to decrease, so would demand, leading to a decrease in wealth. The real issue is not wealth disparity but rather access to income and consumption opportunities.

Charitable Redistribution:
Many wealthy individuals donate a significant portion of their wealth to charitable causes, benefiting society as a whole. Intergenerational wealth transfer through inheritance also contributes to wealth redistribution.

Services, Gender, and Income:
The shift towards services generates new jobs that favor women’s base capabilities. However, services tend to be lower-paid than manufacturing, and women face lower wages compared to men. This could lead to a decrease in overall incomes.

Innovation in Services:
The services sector offers opportunities for innovation and new job categories, such as yoga and Pilates instructors. In the future, the cost of goods may decrease due to automation, while services may become more expensive as people prioritize their lifestyle over material goods.

Gender Pay Gap:
While a decrease in incomes is a potential concern, addressing the gender pay gap remains a critical issue.