Introduction by Michael Fullilove:

Michael Fullilove, the head of the Lowy Institute, introduces the first event of 2023. He acknowledges the traditional custodians of the land, the Gadigal of the Eora Nation, and gives respect to their elders. The Lowy Institute is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year, and its mission has been to deepen the Australian debate about the world and to project Australian voices abroad. The institute has a track record of hosting influential leaders and thinkers and producing significant research.

Past Achievements of the Lowy Institute:

Fullilove mentions that in the past two decades, the Institute has produced key research initiatives like the Asia Power Index, the Pacific Aid Map, and the Lowy Institute Poll. The institute has published nearly 50 flagship papers and around 500 other reports, analyses, and policy briefs. They also run The Interpreter, a platform with nearly 20,000 articles, and have hosted thousands of intellectually stimulating events.

Event Rules and Exception for Bill Gates:

Fullilove discusses the Institute’s rules for hosting events, emphasizing intellectual stimulation and punctuality. The Institute usually doesn’t host events before Australia Day due to it marking the end of the Australian summer. However, an exception was made to host Bill Gates, underscoring the significance of his presence.

Introduction of Bill Gates:

Bill Gates is introduced as a multifaceted individual: a software engineer, business leader, philanthropist, and a “pickler” (someone who plays pickleball). Fullilove outlines Gates’ significant contributions, such as co-founding Microsoft in 1975, which became the world’s largest software maker. He also co-founded the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2000, dedicating nearly $60 billion to promote global health, education access, and poverty reduction.

Topics of Discussion:

The talk aims to cover challenges that the world is currently facing or will face in the near future. These include topics like pandemics, climate change, and food security. Audience participation through questions is encouraged.

The segment sets the stage for a conversation between Bill Gates and Michael Fullilove, promising an engaging and informative discussion on pressing global issues.

Bill Gates’ Visit to Australia:

Bill Gates is primarily in Australia for vacation, spending time at Lizard Island, Sydney, and planning to attend the Australian Open in Melbourne.

COVID-19 as a Revealing X-Ray:

The host, Michael Fullilove, describes COVID-19 as an “X-ray” that exposes the strengths, weaknesses, and inequalities of societies. He contrasts the different strategies employed by countries like the United States and China, raising questions about the effectiveness of these approaches.

No Perfect Pandemic Response:

In response, Gates notes that no country has had a perfect handling of the pandemic. He highlights Australia’s early population-scale diagnostics and quarantine measures as a best practice, which resulted in a death rate per capita about 12% of that in most rich countries, including the United States.

Importance of Early Diagnostics:

Gates emphasizes that the initial 90 days were crucial for pandemic control. The U.S. did not scale up diagnostics and quarantine during this period, which Gates suggests should be a lesson for future preparedness. Dedicated personnel and partnerships with diagnostic industries are vital.

Role of Vaccine Research Funding:

Gates praises the U.S. government for funding vaccine research with $14 billion, which accelerated the development of both mRNA and non-mRNA vaccines. These vaccines significantly reduced death rates, particularly among people over 60 or those with immune deficiencies.

Timing and Variants:

Gates discusses the advantage of deferring infections until vaccines and treatments are available, and when less-lethal variants like Omicron emerge. He estimates that China’s death rate will be about a third of that in rich countries due to this deferral and some level of vaccination.

Countries Could Have Done Better:

While acknowledging China’s efforts to suppress infection, Gates criticizes its slow vaccination roll-out for the elderly, suggesting it could have reopened its economy sooner had it acted differently.

Rare Nature of Epidemics:

Gates concludes by pointing out that because epidemics are rare events, countries are often unprepared. He hopes that the experience with COVID-19 will catalyze better preparedness for future pandemics, similar to how governments have become adept at handling more frequent disasters like fires.

The segment underscores the complexity and variety of pandemic responses, identifying both best practices and shortcomings, while emphasizing the need for better future preparedness.

WHO’s Performance:

Bill Gates spoke about the World Health Organization (WHO) facing undue challenges, particularly from its largest donor, the United States, which withdrew its support in the middle of the pandemic. Gates argues that this greatly hindered WHO’s performance. He emphasized that the WHO needs dedicated teams and resources to improve pandemic preparedness globally.

Global Preparedness Drills:

Gates proposed regular, comprehensive exercises in pandemic preparedness at both the country and regional levels. He compared this to the fire drills and war games that are currently practiced. Gates pointed out that Australia’s early and effective response to COVID-19 was partly due to its previous experience with SARS-CoV-1, demonstrating the value of preparedness.

Human Innovation and Risks:

Gates gave a balanced view of human progress. On the one hand, he celebrated the enormous leaps in lifespan, literacy, and innovation over the last 300 years. On the other hand, he warned about the dual-use nature of some technologies, like nuclear weapons and biology, which can be used both for good and bad.

Future Challenges and Tools:

Gates explained that pandemic risks come from two sources: nature and potentially bioterrorism. He identified four major families of viruses that have the potential for human-to-human respiratory spread and argued that we should have standby tools, including antivirals and vaccines, for these. Gates also noted that the risk of fast global spread of diseases has increased due to the high level of modern travel, making it crucial to have surveillance mechanisms at all major travel points.

Optimism and Caution:

When asked about his optimism for humanity’s ability to tackle future challenges, Gates stated that while he is generally optimistic given historical progress, there are also significant challenges and risks. He expressed that with modern tools and a concerted global effort, many of these challenges can be mitigated.

The overarching theme was the need for preparedness, collaboration, and the thoughtful application of technology to address global health challenges effectively.

Optimism and World Health Organization (WHO):

Bill Gates expresses his overall optimism despite global challenges. He contends that the WHO is a crucial asset and should be better resourced. He emphasizes the importance of having dedicated personnel for infectious diseases at WHO. Gates highlights that criticism against WHO should be coupled with actions to strengthen it.

Climate Change Realities and Targets:

Gates concedes that the world is not on track to limit global warming to the 1.5-degree mark. He underscores the growing impact of climate change, particularly on poorer countries. Gates notes that achieving even a 2.5-degree limit would be a considerable accomplishment given current trajectories.

Importance of Innovation:

Gates stresses the necessity of innovation in tackling climate change. He remarks that hydrocarbons have been instrumental in the advancement of modern society, but their replacement is essential for environmental sustainability. Gates emphasizes that the world needs to rethink key sectors like steel and cement.

Challenges and Equity:

Gates explains the complexity of solving climate change due to its collective action problem and the current focus of intellectual resources. He states that the burden of climate change impacts will disproportionately affect the world’s poorer, tropical countries, despite the emissions largely originating from wealthier nations.

Historical Perspective:

Gates places the current challenges in a historical context, suggesting that the human condition has improved dramatically over centuries. He implies that the same ingenuity that has driven human progress can be harnessed to address current global crises effectively.

Global Risk and Preparedness:

Gates advocates for comprehensive global preparedness measures, including regular drills for epidemic and pandemic situations. He mentions that such preparedness is not just for when an epidemic occurs, but is essential for continuous monitoring and readiness. He likens global epidemics to a fire that could rapidly spread worldwide.

Modern Risks:

Gates admits that modernity comes with its own set of risks, including the fast spread of pandemics due to extensive human travel. He argues that despite these challenges, the scope for innovation and improvement remains substantial.

Global Aid Imbalance:

Bill Gates discusses the unmet global target of wealthy nations donating 0.7% of their GDP to assist poorer countries. He notes that current contributions are considerably below this benchmark, with the United States at 0.2% and Europe being the most generous. The total overseas development assistance is around $180 billion per year, which Gates argues is insufficient.

Impact of Crises:

Gates acknowledges that issues like the war in Ukraine divert attention and resources from other global crises like poverty and climate change. He emphasizes that wars have broad impacts, affecting things like the cost of food and fertilizer, which in turn adversely affect developing countries.

Missed Sustainable Goals:

Despite advancements in areas like vaccine development, Gates is pessimistic about achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. He attributes this to the diversion of focus and resources caused by wars and poor governance.

Australia’s Climate Stance:

Gates praises the new Australian government for finally committing to climate change goals. He emphasizes Australia’s unique position to benefit from a shift toward renewable energy due to its natural resources and land area. He also mentions an investment in an Australian company aimed at reducing methane emissions from cows.

Agricultural Innovation:

Gates highlights Australia’s excellence in agricultural research, especially in tropical and dryland agriculture. He suggests that Australia’s expertise could be invaluable in helping farmers adapt to climate change and improve productivity.

Looking Forward:

In conclusion, Gates stresses the need for countries to push toward meeting the 0.7% GDP aid goal and for Australia to continue increasing its contributions to global development and climate action. He believes that ultimately, electricity will become cheaper and the industrial base stronger as we transition to renewable energy.

Ukraine’s Leadership:

Bill Gates is impressed with how Ukraine’s President Zelensky has led his country and communicated the urgency of its challenges to the world. He notes that Ukraine was more successful in resisting Russia’s advances than expected, attributing this to a combination of Russia’s weaknesses and Ukraine’s strengths. Gates is optimistic about Ukraine’s future, citing its agricultural potential and geopolitical importance.

U.S. Innovation:

Despite the current political climate, Gates is confident about the United States’ role as a global leader in innovation. He emphasizes that the U.S. has the unique advantage of attracting talent from around the world, fostering innovation in multiple fields from AI to agriculture. However, Gates also acknowledges that U.S. policies could be more welcoming to this international talent.

U.S. Political Weakness:

Gates expresses concern about the weakening political state of the U.S., especially given the nation’s historic role in world leadership. He identifies political polarization as a major obstacle to U.S. governance, both domestically and internationally. The issue raises questions about the country’s reliability as a global leader, particularly in organizations like the WHO.

Political Polarization:

While Gates admits he doesn’t fully understand the reasons behind the increasing political polarization in the U.S., he notes a decline in trust in institutions, including the military, judiciary, and corporations. He compares the low approval ratings of politicians in the U.S. to higher rates in countries like China, where citizens don’t directly elect their leaders.

Role of Media:

Gates discusses the impact of news and social media on politics and society. While he originally believed that digital access to information would benefit democracy, he acknowledges that platforms like Twitter can also perpetuate misinformation and division. He views the handling of these issues as a critical challenge for the next generation.

In summary, Gates touches on global leadership with a focus on Ukraine, explores the current and future state of U.S. innovation and political stability, and delves into the complexities of political polarization and the role of media in shaping public opinion.

China’s Rapid Growth:

Bill Gates discusses the rapid economic rise of China, which in 1980 was poorer than India but has now become the most wealthy middle-income country in the world. He mentions that this transformation is positive for the world, as China comprises around 20% of the global population.

Political System and Global Economy:

Gates observes that China’s economic standing and its authoritarian nature make it an outlier. He expresses concern over the “lose-lose” mentality between China and the U.S., emphasizing that both countries have a role to play in global challenges like cancer research and climate change.

Climate Innovation:

Gates introduces Breakthrough Energy, a group he founded that has invested in over 100 startups. These startups focus on a range of solutions for mitigating climate change, from electricity and air travel to steel production. He highlights that both governments and private organizations need to support these initiatives to bring “green premiums” down to zero.

Nuclear Energy’s Role in Climate Change:

Gates explains his continued faith in nuclear technology, both fission and fusion, as promising solutions for climate change. He is involved in 14 fusion companies and is the primary investor in TerraPower, a leading company in nuclear fission technology.

Global Cooperation:

Gates underlines the importance of global cooperation and innovation in solving universal challenges like climate change. He warns against hawkish stances that could be self-fulfilling and negative for the world.

Community Involvement:

The discussion ends with the floor being opened for audience questions, indicating an interactive dialogue that allows for various perspectives and queries to be addressed.

Investment in Nuclear Energy:

Bill Gates shares his ongoing investment in nuclear energy, both fission and fusion, as a potential solution for climate change and energy access in poor countries. He has invested billions of dollars in the sector and highlights the need for a diversified energy strategy that includes renewables, storage, and carbon sequestration. Despite his optimism about nuclear energy, Gates admits that even if nuclear succeeds, renewable energy will still make up 60-70% of the energy mix.

Role of Philanthropy in Society:

Responding to a question about the impact of private philanthropy on democratic accountability and social equity, Gates provides the example of his foundation’s work on malaria. He argues that philanthropy plays an essential role in tackling global issues that are underfunded and neglected, particularly in developing countries. However, he believes that governments should take the lead on most equity-related issues and admits that richer people, including himself, should be taxed more.

Challenges in R&D for Developing Countries:

Gates points out that there is a lack of research and development (R&D) focused on the needs of developing countries, particularly in areas like health and agriculture. He argues that his foundation helps fill this gap, as demonstrated by their substantial investment in malaria research and eradication.

Public vs. Private Sector Roles:

Gates emphasizes that while philanthropy can make significant contributions, it should not replace the role of governments in achieving societal equity. In his view, philanthropy can fill gaps and address immediate needs, but systemic issues should be the responsibility of governments.

Globalization vs. Retribalization:

Bill Gates addresses concerns about the decline in globalization and the rise of inward-looking, protectionist policies. He notes that the modern economy, despite its dependence on hydrocarbons, has been effective in improving living standards. Gates acknowledges that global trade has had fluctuations but indicates that it remains important for human progress.

Role of Hydrocarbons in Trade:

Gates discusses the significance of crude oil in global trade, labeling it as the largest dependency in terms of dollars. He remarks on its efficiency, saying that if crude oil did not emit greenhouse gases, it would be an “unbelievable thing” due to its energy density and low cost.

Technological Advances in Trade:

The speaker highlights the role of technology and data in facilitating global trade. He mentions how developments like containerized shipping have significantly boosted global trade networks. Furthermore, he sees ongoing needs for global trade, especially in minerals crucial for green energy like copper, lithium, and cobalt.

U.S.-China Relations and Efficiency:

Gates expresses concern about the growing reluctance, particularly in the U.S., to depend on products from China, foreseeing this trend causing “significant inefficiencies.” Despite this, he remains optimistic about the general direction of human progress.

Optimism About the Future:

Despite challenges and negative trends, Gates expresses optimism about future human conditions. He believes innovations will continue to bring about dramatic improvements in health and well-being, including the curing of obesity and cancer and the eradication of polio. He states that it would be “much better to be born 20 years from now, 40 years from now, 60 years from now than any time in the past.”

Long COVID Uncertainties:

Bill Gates addressed the question about tackling long COVID by indicating that the prevalence and form of long COVID are still not well-understood. He mentioned that the Gates Foundation is funding studies through the International Health Metrics and Evaluation to shed more light on this issue. Gates also highlighted that people who generally take less care of their health are more likely to get COVID, making the data on long COVID somewhat confounding.

Chronic Effects of Viral Infections:

Gates mentioned that chronic issues can arise from any acute viral infection, not just COVID-19. These include conditions like chronic fatigue syndrome and autoimmune diseases. He noted that current data on the impact of long COVID on heart disease, diabetes, and mental functions is still unclear.

Philanthropy’s Role:

When it comes to philanthropic efforts, Gates emphasized that the Gates Foundation focuses primarily on neglected diseases. Because long COVID has a broad market of interest, it is not the top priority for the foundation. However, they are involved in terms of some infrastructure aspects.

Future Pandemic Threats:

Gates outlined the need for better pandemic tools, including scalable diagnostics that can be produced in billions, antiviral drugs that can be rolled out within months, and adaptable antibody treatments. He also talked about the possibility of inhaling blockers that can prevent infection at the early stage of an epidemic.

Improving Vaccines:

Gates highlighted three issues with current vaccines: they don’t block infection, they are not broad enough to cover new variants, and they have short durations of effectiveness. He stressed that these are all fixable issues, and solving them would advance the field of vaccinology broadly.

Australia’s Unique Role:

Australia has had a lower death rate compared to other wealthy nations, largely due to effective use of PCR testing and quarantine policies. Gates mentioned that Australia could play a significant role in solving future pandemic threats, especially through its intersections between philanthropy, private investment, and research and policy.

Respiratory Pandemic Preparedness:

Bill Gates predicts that within a decade, the toolset to manage respiratory pandemics will be excellent. However, he highlights the importance of global and regional capacity to respond to a threat before it becomes a pandemic. The speaker implies that technology alone is insufficient; effective practice at regional and country levels is equally crucial to prevent a localized outbreak from becoming global.

Foundation’s Achievements and Challenges:

When reflecting on his foundation’s work, Gates takes pride in significantly reducing the childhood death rate by half, which was accomplished through partnerships, generous foreign aid, and inventive medical professionals. He also talks about other promising initiatives in agriculture and nutrition. He expresses optimism about further reducing childhood deaths and combating malnutrition, which he sees as having an equivalent impact in terms of global justice.

Admiration for Abraham Lincoln:

Gates elaborates on his admiration for Abraham Lincoln, praising Lincoln’s leadership during a challenging period in American history. Despite facing personal and national tragedies, Lincoln managed to maintain a moral vision, which led to the abolition of slavery. Gates finds inspiration in Lincoln’s ability to bring together diverse talents and lead them effectively.

Closing Remarks:

The conversation concludes with the host acknowledging Gates’s “restless intelligence” and ambition to do good in the world, thanking him for his thoughtful and stimulating discussion.