Arab Uprisings and Social Transformation:
Basma Kodmani, head of the Arab Reform Initiative, highlights the positive elements emerging from the Arab uprisings. Arab societies are demonstrating innovative ways of mobilizing, organizing, and learning democratic processes. Kodmani emphasizes the need for both top-down and bottom-up efforts to drive social transformation. Societies are demanding accountability and resisting authoritarianism.

Regional Turmoil and International Relations:
Volker Perthes, an analyst of Middle Eastern politics, emphasizes the interconnectedness of regional turmoils and revolutions. Syria serves as a core of regional turmoil, with both local and international forces involved. Egypt has become a political battlefield, with regional actors vying for influence. Saudi Arabia and Iran are key regional contenders, engaging in actions that exacerbate regional tensions. The fear of the United States shifting allegiances further complicates the regional dynamics.

Addressing Regional Turmoil:
Perthes cautions against romanticizing the Arab Spring, as revolutions have historical dimensions and complexities. Regional turmoil will likely sweep through the entire region, with varying state responses. Europe should consider focusing on transformative states to promote peaceful transformations.

Syrian Opposition and Geneva II:
Kodmani discusses the efforts to unite the Syrian opposition politically and militarily. Political opposition has made progress in expressing a common voice and supporting a negotiation process. The opposition favors a negotiation based on the Geneva I document, but clarity from great powers is needed. The provisional government formed by the opposition seeks support to demonstrate its ability to deliver to the Syrian people. External support is crucial for the opposition to connect with fighting groups and provide assistance.

Islamic Front as an Example of Opposition Forces:
Kodmani points to the gathering of opposition forces under the Islamic front in local areas. This example highlights the complexity of the opposition and the need for a unified strategy.

Syrian Opposition Diversity:
The Islamic front in Syria is diverse, with some groups calling for an Islamic state and others committed to a democratic outcome.

Moderate Islamist Groups:
The Muslim Brothers, a moderate Islamist group, are joining pro-democracy groups to advocate for a democratic Syria.

Support for the Syrian Revolution:
Gulf countries have been generously supporting the Syrian revolution, but their involvement has polarized the regional picture.

Detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia:
Detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia is necessary to reduce polarization in Syria and allow for more independent Syrian decision-making.

Geneva Process:
The Geneva process is complex but offers a platform for moderate groups to work towards a moderate agenda for Syria’s future.

Countering Extremism:
To sideline extremist groups, political action is necessary, not just security measures focused on fighting terror.

Disintegration of the Levant:
The Levant region, including Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, is experiencing state failure or disintegration.

Historical Context:
The fall of Sykes-Picot, which established borders in the region, has been discussed, but it is unclear what will replace it.

Challenges of State Collapse:
The collapse of order in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon poses challenges for the people of the region and requires regional and international efforts to address.

Regional Borders and Fragmentation:
Prolonged conflicts, like the Syrian war, pose a significant risk of fragmenting the region and its borders. The post-Ottoman, post-World War I order, known as Sykes-Picot, is at risk of fragmenting due to the ongoing Syrian war. Borders are becoming blurred, with various actors, including the Syrian army, militias, Hezbollah, and Kurdish groups, controlling different areas.

Implications of Fragmentation:
The fragmentation of Syria could threaten the stability of other nation-states and quasi-nation-states in the region, particularly Iraq, Jordan, and others. The idea of a multi-confessional, multi-ethnic state in the Middle East could be challenged and potentially disappear. Fragmentation would not lead to a new, better order but rather to disorder and instability in the region.

The Alternative to Fragmentation:
Stopping the war in Syria is the greatest challenge and the only way to prevent fragmentation and further humanitarian catastrophes. Temporary administrative divisions within Syria, with separate zones controlled by the Assad government and the opposition, could have positive humanitarian, political, and strategic outcomes.

The Need to Address the Syrian War:
Ending the Syrian war is crucial to maintaining regional stability and preventing fragmentation. The international community must work together to find a solution to the conflict and stop the humanitarian crisis.

Jebali’s Critique of Political Islam and Ideological Polarization:
Jebali questions the categorization of “political Islam” and “non-political Islam,” emphasizing that the main concerns of Tunisian citizens are urgent societal and economic issues. He argues that ideological polarization is not the solution to Tunisia’s problems and that parties resorting to violence or ideological polarization will diminish over time. Jebali advocates for a moderate social model that encompasses diverse ideologies and addresses the needs of all Tunisians.

The Spark of the Tunisian Revolution:
Jebali identifies the main problem in Tunisia as the huge social gap between different social strata and economic conditions. He asserts that the people have no interest in ideological polarization and that their primary concerns are finding work, healthcare, and sufficient financial support for their families.

Al-Nahda’s Policy of Political Consensus and Negotiations:
Jebali explains that Al-Nahda has adopted a policy of political consensus and negotiations since its establishment in 1981. He believes this approach is necessary to develop a moderate social model that can accommodate diverse ideologies.

Avoiding Political, Cultural, and Religious Polarization:
Jebali emphasizes the importance of avoiding political, cultural, and religious polarization in Tunisia. He argues that this path does not lead to good outcomes and points to examples that substantiate his point.

Seeking a Moderate Social Model Through Consensus and Negotiations:
Al-Nahda’s goal is to achieve a moderate social model that encompasses different ideologies and addresses the needs of all Tunisians. Jebali believes that this approach is the best way to address the challenges facing Tunisia and to ensure the success of the revolution.

Perceptions of Political Transitions:
Hamadi Jebali emphasizes that Tunisia is undergoing a gradual transition, nurturing traditions and culture, seeking political consensus for peaceful coexistence, and consolidating democracy. He contrasts this with the prolonged stability process in France after its revolution.

Regional Tensions and Power Dynamics:
Paul Salem acknowledges occasional periods of rapprochement between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) or Saudi Arabia, but highlights the significant impact of U.S. policy shifts on regional power dynamics since 2003. He raises the question of how the GCC states, particularly Saudi Arabia, view the potential for a new relationship with Iran given the changing realities in Syria, Iraq, and the interim agreement between P5-plus-1 and Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s Role and Policy Stances:
Turki Al-Faisal refutes the accusation that Saudi Arabia foments sectarianism in the Syrian conflict, asserting that the country worked with the Assad regime regardless of sect or ethnicity. He welcomes the Geneva agreement as a first step but stresses the need for a comprehensive solution, including a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. Al-Faisal suggests expanding the P5-plus-1 negotiations to include the GCC, emphasizing the regional relevance and concerns of Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.

Saudi Arabia’s Expectations and Demands for Iran:
Al-Faisal outlines specific actions Iran should take to improve relations, including removing revolutionary guards from Syria, instructing Hezbollah to refrain from interfering in Syria, and telling the Abbas Brigade from Iraq to return home. He emphasizes that these tangible steps are necessary to foster better relations with regional countries.

Iran’s Role and Regional Interactions:
Mousavian acknowledges Iran’s size, economic potential, and natural resources, asserting that it should be a friendly country rather than adopting a pugilist stance toward its neighbors. He suggests that the decision lies with the Iranian people and the Arab countries in the Middle East, who have consistently extended their hand in friendship to Iran.

Q&A Session Invitation:
The moderator invites Mr. Mousavian to respond to the claim that Iran has intervened in Arab countries’ affairs since the early revolution.

Saudi Support for Invasion of Iran:
After the Iranian revolution, an Arab country invaded Iran with financial support from Saudi Arabia and the GCC, leading to the deaths of over 1 million Iranians. Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons attacks on Iran, which killed 100,000 Iranians, were supported by Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Pressure on US and Europe to Attack Iran:
Wikileaks revealed that since 2005, Saudi Arabia and the GCC have pressured the US and Europe to launch military strikes against Iran. European friends have confirmed that Saudi Arabia’s pressure to attack Iran exceeds that of Israel.

Violating Security Pacts and Blaming Iran:
Despite signing a security pact with Iran, Saudi Arabia has continued to push for military action against Iran. Saudi Arabia’s accusations of Iranian interference in regional disputes ignore its own history of aggression towards Iran.

Saudi Support for Dictators and Military Coups:
Saudi Arabia supported Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorship in Egypt until the end, opposing the Egyptian people’s desire for change. Saudi Arabia supported a military coup against the democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. Saudi Arabia supports the military regime in Bahrain, which has suppressed peaceful demonstrations by the Shia majority.

Iran’s Non-Aggression Policy:
Iran has never invaded any country, unlike Arab countries that have invaded Iran.

Panel Discussion:
Concerns were raised about the ongoing conflict in Syria and the involvement of regional powers seeking to benefit from the situation. The speaker compared the situation to Hemingway’s “The Old Man and the Sea,” suggesting that the conflict is deteriorating and may have negative consequences for those involved.

Iraq War and Saudi Arabia’s Involvement:
Prince Turki Al-Faisal clarified that Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries did not provide financial support to Iraq during Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran. Aid was provided only when Iran invaded Iraq and threatened to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Saudi Arabia’s position has consistently been to seek a withdrawal of forces from both sides in the conflict.

Saudi Arabia’s Stance on Friends and Allies:
Prince Turki Al-Faisal emphasized that Saudi Arabia stands by its friends, regardless of their political or religious affiliations, as demonstrated during the Iraq-Kuwait conflict. The kingdom supported President Mubarak until his resignation and extended friendship to his successors.

Iran’s Involvement in Syria and Bahrain:
Prince Turki Al-Faisal criticized Iran’s interference in Arab affairs, particularly its support for Assad’s regime in Syria and its inflammatory statements and propaganda against Bahrain. He urged Iran to take concrete steps to improve relations with neighboring countries, such as ceasing provocative statements and broadcasts.

Geneva II Peace Conference:
Prince Turki Al-Faisal expressed skepticism about the prospects for success of the Geneva II peace conference, given the lack of progress from Geneva I and Russia’s continued support for the Assad regime. He questioned how a deal brokered by a party actively supporting one side in the conflict could be effective.

Iran and Saudi Arabia:
Volker Perthes highlights the sectarian discourse fostered in Saudi Arabia, with Sunni sheikhs promoting a Sunni front against Alawites and Shiites. Prince Turki Al-Faisal defends Saudi Arabia’s official position against sectarian divisions and mentions King Abdullah’s call for sectarian dialogue and the establishment of a center for that purpose in Medina. Perthes emphasizes the need to hold Iran accountable for the actions of Shia sheikhs against Sunnis.

Hezbollah and the Syrian Conflict:
Perthes criticizes Hussein Mousavian’s statement that Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are fighting in Syria to combat terrorism. Perthes argues that Hezbollah and the Guards are prolonging Bashar al-Assad’s regime and winning battles with their support. Perthes proposes stopping the war in Syria, removing foreign fighters, and bringing all parties to Geneva for negotiations to weaken extremists and address the fears of those opposed to change.

Foreign Interference and Regional Priorities:
Prime Minister Jabali emphasizes the dangers of polarization and foreign interference in the region. Jabali calls for development, prosperity, freedom, and democracy as the demands of the people and seeks European support for establishing democracy and supporting democracies. Jabali rejects labels like “Islamist” or “religious parties,” emphasizing the need to focus on building communities and societies while preserving identities. Basma Kodmani warns against the misuse of the term “secularism” as a cover for sectarianism in the region.

Secularism and Democracy:
The speaker criticizes the use of labels like “secular” and “liberal” to describe non-democratic regimes like Egypt’s, emphasizing that true democracy is needed in Syria.

Moderate Islamism is Insufficient:
The speaker argues that moderate Islamism will not work in Syria, as it is not fair to expect Christians or Alawites to accept Sharia law.

Problems with the Term “Secular”:
The speaker points out the problems with the term “secular” due to its association with authoritarianism and horrible acts like the use of chemical weapons.

The Importance of Democracy:
The speaker reiterates the importance of democracy as the only suitable form of government for Syria, emphasizing that democracy is the only way to unify the country.

Administrative Distribution and De Facto Split:
The speaker criticizes the idea of dividing Syria into parts governed by Assad and the opposition, calling it a recipe for disaster and emphasizing the need to hold war criminals accountable.