Prince Turki Al Faisal (Saudi Arabia Former Government Official) – Saudi and Israeli former Intelligence Heads Part 2 – May 26 – Brussels (May 2014)

Chapters

Abstract

Establishing a Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Saudi Arabia’s Stance, Regional Tensions, and the Syrian Conflict

In the quest to establish a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role, advocating for a region inclusive of all key players, including Israel and Iran. However, the realization of this vision faces significant challenges, including Israel’s non-signatory status to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Iran’s sporadic commitment. Amid these geopolitical complexities, General Amos Yadlin raises concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the necessity of a WMD-free Middle East for regional stability. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia’s perspective on the Syrian conflict and its advocacy for international intervention against the Assad regime add layers to this intricate geopolitical tapestry.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision for a WMD-Free Zone

Saudi Arabia envisions a Middle East devoid of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, extending this proposition to all regional countries, including Israel, Iran, Egypt, and others. This initiative aims to deter the spread of WMDs and avert potential nuclear conflicts. The kingdom’s proposal includes two guarantees from the UN Security Council’s permanent members: a nuclear security umbrella and the imposition of sanctions, including military action, against any zone violators.

Saudi Arabia’s stance aligns with the Arab League’s position of creating a zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Middle East. This is seen as the fairest solution to address the issue of nuclear proliferation in the region. It would consider all countries in the region, including Israel, Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and Turkey. The zone would also cover chemical and biological weapons, as seen in the recent case of Syria.

Historically, in 1974, under the Shah of Iran, Iran proposed a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. The idea was supported by NPT signatories and a conference was planned in Finland in 2012 to discuss it. However, the United States pulled out of the conference, causing it to collapse. Israel, not a member of the NPT, has participated in some technical meetings on the issue. Iran’s stance is unclear as it attended one meeting but skipped another.

Regional Challenges and Considerations

The establishment of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East faces several hurdles. Israel’s absence as a signatory to the NPT and Iran’s inconsistent participation in technical meetings underscore the complexities involved. The failed 2012 conference in Finland, partly due to the U.S. withdrawal, highlights the difficulties in achieving consensus among regional players.

Saudi Arabia emphasizes the importance of building trust and peace in the region. It urges Israel to take the proposal for a WMD-free zone seriously. Israel stresses the need to address underlying issues like regional conflicts and non-recognition of Israel before discussing nuclear disarmament. Both countries acknowledge the need for mutual recognition and cessation of destructive threats to achieve lasting peace.

Iran’s Nuclear Program and Regional Implications

General Amos Yadlin emphasizes the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program to regional stability. Iran’s aggressive rhetoric towards Israel and its involvement in regional conflicts, including support for the Assad regime in Syria, amplify the urgency to prevent it from acquiring nuclear capabilities. Yadlin advocates for a nuclear-free Middle East, emphasizing the need for mutual recognition and cessation of destructive threats among regional countries.

Iran’s stance on the WMD-free zone is unclear. It attended one technical meeting but skipped another. The country’s political power dynamics are fluid and uncertain, making it challenging to engage in stable negotiations. Supreme Leader Khamenei holds ultimate decision-making power, and his stance towards President Rouhani can change over time. Iran’s internal economic struggles pose a threat to the stability of the Islamic Republic, as acknowledged by President Rouhani. His emphasis on Iranians’ right to happiness reflects the dire economic situation and his efforts to connect with the people.

Saudi Arabia’s Response and Internal Dynamics in Iran

Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud of Saudi Arabia contends that non-signature of the NPT should not justify nuclear weapon development, indirectly referencing Israel. He urges Israel to consider seriously the concept of a WMD-free zone, underlining the importance of mutual trust.

Saudi Arabia initially attempted to mediate between the Syrian government and the opposition, but these efforts were unsuccessful. The kingdom proposed an interim government involving the opposition and representatives from the Syrian government, excluding President Assad. The Arab League endorsed the proposal, but it was vetoed by Russia and China at the UN Security Council. Saudi Arabia consistently urged the international community to provide training and assistance to moderate Syrian rebels. The kingdom also advocated for shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to be given to the rebels, aiming to counter extremists and weaken President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The Syrian Conflict: Saudi Arabia’s Involvement and Challenges

Saudi Arabia’s role in the Syrian conflict encompasses initial attempts at mediation with President Bashar al-Assad and advocating for an interim government. The kingdom’s consistent calls for referring the conflict to the International Criminal Court and urging Western powers to assist moderate Syrian rebels demonstrate its active engagement. Despite these efforts, the Arab League’s proposals faced vetoes from Russia and China in the UN Security Council, reflecting the international dimension of the conflict.

The situation in Syria is a tragedy, with countless lives lost and institutions destroyed. Negotiations for the peace zone will require a period of negotiations involving multiple countries. Setting up the zone will coincide with negotiations between Israel and the Arab world, hopefully leading to a settlement. The Arab Peace Initiative, supported by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), provides a framework for the negotiations. Guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council are crucial to ensure compliance and prevent infringement of the zone’s conditions.

Military Imbalance and Rise of Extremism in Syria

Assad possesses a formidable arsenal of aircraft, helicopters, missiles, tanks, and artillery. He initially claimed to be building this military strength to counter the Israeli threat, but now he has turned it against his own citizens. The Syrian opposition lacks the means to defend themselves against Assad’s superior firepower.

The ongoing conflict in Syria has attracted various extremist elements from around the world. Groups like Daesh (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra have emerged as major players in the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias from Iraq have also joined the fight on the side of the Assad regime. Volunteers from different countries, including Belgium, have traveled to Syria to fight on various sides of the conflict.

Saudi Arabia’s Call for International Support

Saudi Arabia, while not seeking foreign troop intervention in Syria, has requested international assistance in equipping the Syrian opposition to defend against Assad’s military and combat extremist groups. The lack of adequate support for the opposition has impeded their effectiveness against both the Syrian government and rising extremist factions.

Saudi Arabia has called for the provision of necessary means to help the Syrian opposition defend against Assad’s air power and advanced weaponry. This assistance is crucial to prevent the further spread of extremism and stabilize the situation in Syria. Saudi Arabia has not proposed sending troops to Syria but seeks to equip the opposition with the means to defend themselves.

Navigating Complex Geopolitical Landscapes

In summary, Saudi Arabia’s advocacy for a WMD-free Middle East and its involvement in the Syrian conflict are integral to understanding the region’s current geopolitical dynamics. The challenges in establishing a WMD-free zone, marked by regional rivalries and international politics, mirror the complexities faced in resolving the Syrian crisis. As these situations continue to evolve, the pursuit of peace and stability in the Middle East remains a multifaceted and challenging endeavor.

Notes by: ChannelCapacity999