Prince Turki Al Faisal (Saudi Arabia Former Government Official) – Rebuilding Alliances, Containing Adversaries (Nov 2016)
Chapters
00:00:00 Middle East Policy Under the Trump Administration
Saudi Perspective on Iran Nuclear Deal: Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud advises the new president not to rip up the Iran nuclear deal. He argues that the deal is a first step towards a nuclear-free Middle East and that it provides a respite of 15 years to work on a more permanent solution.
US Policy Options: Elliot Cohen believes the president can tear up the deal, but it would be disruptive and could harm US credibility. He expects the new administration to enforce the provisions of the deal more strictly and view it as part of a broader Iran policy.
Egypt’s View of Iran: Nabeel Fahmy agrees that the Iran nuclear deal is a step forward, but not enough. He is concerned about Iran’s aggressive regional policies and wants to link the deal to Iran’s behavior in the region.
Iran’s Regional Influence: Mohsen Milani argues that Iran has become a major regional power due to US mistakes and Iranian opportunism. He believes the nuclear deal was a win-win for all parties and had nothing to do with Iran’s regional policies. He sees Iran as a spoiler player that can make it difficult for the US and Saudi Arabia to achieve their ambitions in the region.
Saudi Arabia’s Response to the New Administration: Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud says it’s premature to judge the new administration’s actions. He agrees that the Iran nuclear deal must be policed to ensure Iran’s compliance. He is unsure whether President-elect Trump shares the same regional views as Saudi Arabia, given his call with the Russian leader and disparaging remarks about Syrian rebels.
00:12:28 Expert Perspectives on US Middle East Diplomacy
Introduction: Turki bin Faisal Al Saud suggests that the President-elect should visit Middle Eastern allies before taking office to understand their concerns and perspectives. He believes this approach is better than relying on experts who may have biases or agendas.
Advice to the President-elect: Turki bin Faisal Al Saud advises the President-elect to pack a bag and visit America’s friends in the Middle East. He should listen directly to their concerns, ideas, and prognostications on how to deal with issues. This will help the President-elect make informed decisions before being deluged with opinions from experts who may have biased agendas.
Elliot’s Perspective: Elliot is hesitant to provide specific advice, as he recognizes that there is no ideal policy that can be executed by everyone. He believes that the best policy depends on the individuals who will be responsible for executing it. Elliot suggests that the President-elect’s approach will differ based on the experience and knowledge of the team he assembles.
Conclusion: The discussion highlights the importance of understanding different perspectives and considering the practical aspects of implementing policies. It emphasizes the need for a President-elect to gather information and insights from various sources before making decisions.
00:14:36 The Future of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East
The Importance of Alliances: Alliances are crucial for the United States’ position in the world, and they require constant tending and understanding. Neglecting alliances can lead to frustration and hinder effective foreign policy. Establishing relationships with key players in the Middle East is essential for conducting foreign policy.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach: A Trump-like foreign policy is expected, focusing on realpolitik and dealing with reality rather than ideological goals. This approach may differ from the policies of previous presidents, both in terms of strategy and perspective. The president-elect is likely to pursue a strategic policy that views the Middle East as a partner, not an adversary.
Middle Eastern Capacity Building: The Middle East needs support from the United States, but it cannot rely solely on American intervention. Building capacity within Middle Eastern countries will enable them to better address their own problems and become more effective partners. American foreign policy should aim to make Middle Easterners better partners by addressing security, economic, and education issues.
Strategic Policy vs. Tactical Policies: The Middle East needs a strategic policy that addresses long-term issues rather than tactical policies focused on short-term objectives. The region is undergoing significant turmoil that cannot be resolved quickly. A strategic policy should focus on the long-term interests of the United States and its allies in the region.
Iran’s Reaction to Trump’s Presidency: Iranians have expressed shock, entertainment, and alarm at Trump’s election. Iranian officials have acknowledged Trump’s belief in deliberate uncertainty and are adjusting their policies accordingly. Iran’s Supreme Leader has emphasized the need for preparedness and vigilance in dealing with Trump’s presidency.
00:22:59 Iranian Perspectives on the Trump Presidency
Iranian Leadership’s Perception of President-Elect Trump: Iranian leaders are cautious about making judgments about President-elect Trump due to limited information. They view him as a businessman and believe he may eventually come to terms with Iran’s importance in regional issues. They expect Trump to prioritize the fight against ISIS, potentially leading to cooperation with Russia and Iran, who are allies in Syria.
Iran’s Potential Response to Abrogation of Nuclear Agreement: Iran believes it can strike a deal with President-elect Trump, but is prepared to revert to hostility if the nuclear agreement is abrogated. Abrogating the agreement would benefit hardliners in Iran, but is unlikely to result in new sanctions due to the agreement’s international support.
Saudi Arabia’s Concerns about Trump’s Policy in Syria: Saudi Arabia fears that Trump’s cooperation with Russia and Iran in Syria could harm Syrian civilians. They emphasize that Bashar al-Assad and his allies, including Iran, are the primary perpetrators of violence against Syrian people. Saudi Arabia hopes Trump will consult with America’s allies in the Middle East before making decisions about Syria.
Iranian Adventurism Post-Nuclear Deal: Saudi Arabia has observed increased Iranian involvement in regional conflicts after the nuclear deal. They believe Iran has expanded its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, potentially threatening regional stability.
00:31:00 Iran-Saudi Arabia Cold War and Its Impact on Syria
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Involvement in Syria: Turki bin Faisal Al Saud asserted that Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops are present in Syria, responsible for the deaths of many Syrians. Al Saud highlighted that this influx of Iranian forces has occurred after the Iran nuclear deal, spanning nearly a year. Mohsen Milani initially expressed uncertainty about the presence of Iranian troops in Syria but later acknowledged their involvement.
The Complexity of the Syrian Civil War: Milani emphasized the need to recognize the complexity of the Syrian conflict, beyond simply portraying it as a struggle between good and evil. He pointed out that the conflict involves multiple actors, including Iran, Russia, and other groups receiving financial support and weapons from various sources. Milani stressed that blaming only one party and ignoring others leads to ongoing disasters in the Middle East.
Iran-Saudi Arabia Cold War and Its Implications: Milani compared the current Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry to the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, emphasizing that it is a political, economic, and cultural conflict. He argued that neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia has the power to significantly undermine the other, resulting in a prolonged stalemate. Milani emphasized the need for Iran and Saudi Arabia to come together to end their cold war, as their continued conflict fuels support for groups killing innocent Syrians.
Egypt’s Foreign Policy: Deborah Amos observed that Egypt seems to be repositioning closer to Russia and Iran than Saudi Arabia. Nabeel Fahmy, a former Egyptian Foreign Minister, clarified that Egypt’s multi-partner foreign policy aims to increase friendships and ensure freedom of decision-making. Fahmy stressed that there is no comparison between Egypt’s relations with Saudi Arabia and those with Iran.
00:36:00 Addressing Regional Tensions in the Middle East
US Policy Differences with Saudi Arabia and Iran: US relations with Saudi Arabia are much stronger than with Iran. Some experts argue that Iran has become more aggressive in the region. The US is seeking to improve relations with both Saudi Arabia and the US simultaneously.
Promoting Dialogue Between Iran and Saudi Arabia: Engaging in an Iranian-Saudi dialogue would be beneficial. However, Saudi Arabia’s concerns about Iran must be addressed. Iran needs to take positive steps in implementing the Iranian-Saudi security protocol.
Addressing Turkish-Egyptian Dialogue: A Turkish-Egyptian dialogue is also important. Non-interference in internal affairs of states must be assured.
Importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran: Saudi Arabia and Iran are both important countries in the region. Continuous clashes between them are detrimental to the region.
Addressing the Moving Parts in the Middle East: US military and security forces are actively engaged in the Middle East. Foreign policy decisions must consider these ongoing military operations.
00:38:54 Expert Insights on the Middle East's Impact on the New US Administration
Presidential Outlook on Middle East Policy: The Trump administration is likely to pursue a “hands-off” approach to the Middle East, focusing on counterterrorism rather than broad engagement. The Middle East’s interconnectedness means that even a limited engagement can lead to significant involvement. The new administration will initially focus on domestic priorities, such as repealing Obamacare, defense buildup, and infrastructure projects.
Middle East Complexities: The region is experiencing shifting alliances, with Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia cooperating closely. The reemergence of Russia as a major player adds further complexity to the region’s dynamics. The Obama administration’s quiet exit leaves room for President Trump to make significant policy changes.
Obama’s Remaining Options: There are opportunities for President Obama to take action before the end of his term. Potential actions include continuing peace efforts between Israelis and Palestinians, addressing the Syrian refugee crisis, and shaping the fight against ISIS.
00:42:44 Foreign Policy in the Final Months of the Obama Administration
Options for Obama’s Foreign Policy in the Next Two Months: Recognize the State of Palestine: This would change the Middle East paradigm but is unlikely to happen. Coach the Incoming Administration: Obama could mentor President-elect Trump on being the President of the United States, but this could lead to conflict and tension. Submit a Resolution to the Security Council or General Assembly: This could recognize the Palestinian state and the illegality of settlements, but it could weaken the UN Security Council.
The Iranian Nuclear Deal: Obama’s greatest foreign policy legacy is the Iranian nuclear deal. Obama should accelerate Iranian reintegration into the world economy to protect this legacy.
00:47:15 Challenges to Middle Eastern Reconstruction Efforts
Current State of Iran’s Economy and Foreign Policy: Iran offers an attractive market for Western investment. Integrating Iran into the global economy could moderate its foreign policy, similar to the case of China. This integration would also help sustain the nuclear deal and improve regional stability.
US Military Operation against Daesh: Liberation of Mosul is crucial in the fight against Daesh. Extending the operation to Syria would be beneficial, and Saudi Arabia is willing to participate in such efforts.
Challenges beyond the Mosul Offensive: Reconstruction and governance of Mosul pose significant challenges. Preventing the resurgence of militant groups in the region is essential. Future conflicts may arise due to the complex political dynamics involving Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turks.
Addressing Extremism and Terrorism: Beyond military victories, countering extremism and terrorism requires a broader approach. Libya is another area of concern regarding extremism and terrorism. Daesh may shift to traditional terrorism, using fear as a political tool. It’s crucial to address extremism and terrorism beyond the Mosul battle.
Preserving Nation State System: Maintaining the nation-state system in the Middle East is a strategic priority. Addressing ethnic concerns must be balanced with preserving national unity. Avoiding a domino effect of conflicts is essential.
00:52:45 Navigating the Middle East Jigsaw Puzzle: Challenges and Opportunities
Post-ISIL Mosul: The military operation against ISIL in Mosul is likely to succeed, but the challenge lies in the aftermath. The Iraqi government, Iranian-backed militias, and Shiites must sincerely cooperate and share power in running Mosul and its province to prevent future conflicts. A successful power-sharing model in Mosul could serve as a positive example for other parts of Iraq and Syria.
Yemen: Saudi Arabia’s concern about Yemen’s security is understandable, given its proximity. Resolution 2216 provides a framework for achieving a stable peace in Yemen. However, the situation is unclear as reports of a ceasefire contradict statements from the Yemeni foreign minister.
Resolution 2216: Resolution 2216 is an international agreement that sets the terms for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Yemen. It calls for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Houthi forces from key cities, and the formation of a unity government.
00:55:36 Arab and International Involvement in Regional Conflicts
Ceasefire and Policing Mechanism: The expert emphasized the need for a policing mechanism to enforce any ceasefire agreement in Yemen. Without a policing mechanism, the ceasefire will likely be ineffective and violations will continue. The mechanism should be able to determine responsibility for violations and prevent future violations.
Withdrawal of Houthi Forces: Resolution 2216 demands that Houthi forces withdraw from occupied cities, release seized weapons, and free prisoners. A ceasefire without a policing mechanism will not ensure compliance with these demands.
Egypt’s Reluctance to Deploy Troops: Egypt is unwilling to send troops to Yemen as part of a peacekeeping force. While Egypt supports the coalition forces in Yemen, it believes that Arabs should take a more proactive role in finding a political solution.
Arab Involvement in Peacekeeping: The expert suggests that Arab countries should contribute to peacekeeping forces in Yemen and other regional conflicts. Arab participation in peacekeeping would demonstrate their commitment to regional security and stability.
Stopping Iranian Influence: The expert was asked about ways to counter Iranian influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain. The expert declined to comment on Saudi Arabia’s alleged support for the Iranian PKK, stating that she did not have personal knowledge of the matter.
Geography and Religion: Saudi Arabia and Iran have an unchangeable relationship due to their geographical proximity and shared Islamic faith, including a belief in the Prophet Muhammad and the Quran. Ironically, since the Khomeini revolution, Iran has been ruled by black turban-wearing leaders, indicating descent from the Prophet Muhammad, while being in conflict with Arabs.
Saudi Arabia’s Desire for Peace: Saudi Arabia wants peace and stability in the region, including within Iran. Saudi Arabia does not want Iran to experience centrifugal forces like Iraq, where sectarian and ethnic divisions have caused societal strife. Saudi Arabia wants to ensure that Iran remains a constructive player in the region, which requires the Iranian people to demand it from their leadership.
Support for Groups Operating in Iran: Saudi Arabia denies providing support to groups operating within Iran, including Kurdish, Arab, Baluchi, and Azerbaijani groups. The primary concern is preventing Iran from being torn apart by internal divisions, which would negatively impact neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.
01:02:20 Examining Assumptions and Adjusting Policies in Regional Diplomacy
Foreign Support for Ethnic Groups: Historically, regional powers like the British and Russians have attempted to destabilize Iran by supporting various ethnic groups within the country. Recently, there has been a resurgence of this activity, with unknown parties providing support to Iranian Kurds, Baluchis, and Arabs, leading to increased anti-government activity. Additionally, some countries are providing support to the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, an organization considered an existential threat by Iran, which is a dangerous game as it invites retaliation.
Condemnation of Destabilizing Actions: The speaker condemns all forms of intervention in Iran and Iranian intervention in other countries, emphasizing that this tit-for-tat approach only leads to further instability. He urges all parties to cease supporting elements aimed at destabilizing other countries in the region.
Acknowledging Assumptions and Changing Policies: The speaker suggests that all three parties, Egypt, Iran, and Riyadh, should reflect on their policies and identify assumptions that may have been incorrect, leading to negative consequences. They should be willing to change these policies to improve their ability to achieve their interests.
Potential Actions under the New American Administration: In light of the incoming American administration, the speaker encourages all parties to consider actions they can take to enhance their capacity to achieve their interests. While this question is challenging, the speaker emphasizes the importance of proactive engagement and diplomacy in addressing regional issues.
01:05:30 Addressing Regional Challenges: Managing Change and National Security Deficits in the Arab World
Importance of Arab Cooperation: Nabil Fahmy’s proposal for Arab cooperation should be pursued to address differences and conflicts. Removing trade barriers within the Arab world could significantly increase intra-regional trade. The GCC should prioritize unification to enhance stability and address regional challenges.
US Role in the Middle East: The US should adopt a realistic approach to the Middle East, recognizing the challenges and complexities of the region. A cold-blooded assessment of what is possible in the Middle East is necessary to avoid wishful thinking and ineffective policies. Detaching from the Middle East would be detrimental, given its strategic importance and potential consequences.
Managing Change and National Security Deficits: The Arab world needs to address its managing change and national security deficits. Managing change effectively and leading rather than reacting to events is crucial for regional stability. Reducing over-reliance on foreign entities for national security and enhancing regional self-reliance are essential. Being more self-dependent and regionally dependent would enable the Arab world to become better partners and interlocutors with the international community.
Preserving Nation-States and Arab Leadership: Preserving the nation-state system requires addressing internal problems and developing models tailored to regional needs and constituencies. The lack of Arab leadership in resolving regional conflicts like Libya, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Syria, and Yemen is concerning. The Arab world needs to come up with specific proposals to move forward and engage others in addressing regional challenges. The expanded Arab League, with 22 member states, requires consideration of diverse opinions and perspectives. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have a significant role in addressing regional issues and promoting stability.
01:13:14 Egypt and Saudi Arabia: Politics and Diplomacy in a Complex Region
Engagement Between Egypt and Saudi Arabia: The need for increased strategic engagement and dialogue between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is emphasized. Leadership changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia have led to issues that require resolution. More intensive contacts between these countries are strongly supported.
Over-Militarization and Despotism in the Middle East: Excessive militarization in the region, driven by countries spending excessively, is noted. Historical examples of militarization’s negative consequences, such as Iran in the 1970s, are cited. Despotism and insufficient respect for human rights are also prevalent, including in Iran.
Self-Responsibility and Solving Problems: The importance of recognizing internal problems in the Middle East is emphasized. Blaming others for problems hinders the ability to solve them.
Public Perception of Egypt-US Relations: Egyptians favoring President Trump during the election due to perceived support for President el-Sisi and opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood are mentioned. Expectations of improved relations with the United States under President Trump are noted.
Reasons for Egyptian Preference for President Trump: Egyptians preferred President-elect Trump due to dissatisfaction with American policies and the perception that Secretary Clinton represented a continuation of the existing political system. Factors beyond the position on extremism influenced this preference.
Overall Assessment of Regional Relations: Middle Easterners who met President Trump and Secretary Clinton may feel somewhat comfortable but unsatisfied with both candidates.
01:16:58 Uncertainties of American Foreign Policy and the Impact on Regional Alliances
Speaker 09’s Opinion on the Trump Presidency: Speaker 09 warns against Egyptians becoming overly enthusiastic about either candidate. He cautioned against assuming that institutions will always control presidents. Speaker 09 predicted that people would be less satisfied with the Trump presidency after six months. He anticipated more support for US involvement against extremism, but concerns about American involvement in the region.
Speaker 02’s Opinion on the Trump Presidency: Speaker 02 agreed with Speaker 09’s analysis but emphasized taking the candidate’s words seriously. He interpreted Trump’s “America first” stance as a departure from previous internationalist norms. Speaker 02 expressed uncertainty about the extent of departure from previous norms, noting the desire in the media to normalize the situation.
Speaker 09’s Response: Speaker 09 agreed with Speaker 02’s assessment and cautioned Egyptians against assuming continuity. He emphasized the importance of building domestic strength and engaging with whoever is president.
Potential Implications for US Allies: Deborah Amos raised the possibility of US allies reassessing their relationships and acting more independently.
Speaker 02’s View on Nuclear Proliferation: Speaker 02 suggested that Trump’s statements on nuclear weapons could lead some countries, including in the Middle East, to reconsider their nuclear options. He noted that this would be a transformative development for the region and beyond.
Regional Specialists’ Perspective: Turki bin Faisal Al Saud emphasized the need for regional countries to focus on internal stability and address issues like failing states and the breakdown of nation states. He believed that by addressing these internal issues, the region could withstand unpredictable policies from the US, Russia, or Europe.
01:23:58 Navigating Uncertainties in a Changing Global Order
Change and Unpredictability: The unexpected victories of Trump and Sanders indicate a strong desire for change in America. Unpredictability is inevitable due to these shifts and the end of the Cold War, which removed a clear enemy.
Explaining Foreign Policy: Selling the importance of foreign policy expenditures in places like Mali to constituents in the farm belt is difficult without a direct threat. The U.S. has traditionally explained foreign policy in terms of threats rather than opportunities. The search for a new threat, such as Putin, reflects this need to justify foreign policy.
Russia’s Foreign Policy: Russian foreign policy has shifted from ideological to focusing on immediate gains in national security. Russia engages in trade but does not provide aid, unlike the U.S.
Unpredictability and Iran: Some elements in Iran view Trump’s unpredictability as beneficial, believing it will harm American allies. They argue that Iran has prepared for various scenarios, including negotiations, overthrow attempts, and even a possible U.S. invasion. For these elements, unpredictability is seen as an advantage for Iran.
Abstract
Navigating a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape: Perspectives and Challenges in the Middle East – Updated Article
As the Middle East grapples with evolving geopolitical dynamics, key figures offer varied perspectives on critical issues, including the Iran nuclear deal, regional influence, and the implications of the Trump administration’s policies. Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud of Saudi Arabia emphasizes the necessity of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and proposes using the Iran nuclear deal as a foundation for broader regional disarmament. Concurrently, Elliot Cohen and Nabeel Fahmy discuss the deal’s validity and Iran’s regional policies, while Mohsen Milani analyzes Iran’s assertiveness as a response to U.S. strategies. The article delves into these perspectives, along with Saudi Arabia’s response to President-Elect Trump, the need for Middle Eastern unity, and the potential actions of the Obama administration in its final days. Additionally, it examines Iran’s military involvement in Syria post-nuclear deal, as well as the evolving U.S. foreign policy interactions in the region.
Presidential Outlook on Middle East Policy:
The Trump administration is expected to take a “hands-off” approach to the Middle East, emphasizing counterterrorism rather than broad engagement. While a limited U.S. involvement is intended, the interconnectedness of the region means that even this can lead to significant engagement. Initially, the new administration will focus on domestic priorities such as repealing Obamacare, defense buildup, and infrastructure projects.
Saudi Arabia’s Stance on Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions:
Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud stresses the importance of the Iran nuclear deal in preventing Tehran’s nuclear armament and suggests leveraging the agreement to promote a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)-free zone in the Middle East, encompassing Israel as well. He advises the incoming president not to tear up the deal, arguing that it is a first step towards a nuclear-free Middle East and provides a respite of 15 years to work on a more permanent solution.
Debating the Iran Nuclear Deal’s Termination:
Elliot Cohen raises questions about the feasibility and wisdom of a U.S. president unilaterally ending the Iran nuclear deal, given its global implications and the potential disruption it could cause. He expects stricter enforcement of the deal’s provisions by the incoming administration, which views the agreement as part of a broader Iran policy.
Egypt’s Concerns over Iran’s Regional Influence:
Nabeel Fahmy voices apprehensions about Iran’s aggressive policies, particularly its support for non-Arab entities in the Middle East. He underscores the importance of concurrently addressing Tehran’s nuclear program and its regional activities. He agrees that the Iran nuclear deal is a step forward, but it is not enough.
Understanding Iran’s Regional Posture:
Mohsen Milani argues that Iran’s regional assertiveness stems not from the nuclear deal but from American missteps and Iranian opportunism. He views Iran as a significant but not omnipotent regional actor. He believes the nuclear deal was a win-win for all parties and had nothing to do with Iran’s regional policies. He sees Iran as a spoiler player that can make it difficult for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to achieve their ambitions in the region.
Saudi Arabia’s Cautious Approach to Trump’s Presidency:
Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud calls for a measured assessment of the incoming Trump administration, focusing on Iran’s adherence to the nuclear deal. He questions Trump’s interactions with Russia and his stance on Syrian rebels, probing their congruence with Saudi interests. He is unsure whether President-elect Trump shares the same regional views as Saudi Arabia, given his call with the Russian leader and disparaging remarks about Syrian rebels.
Middle Eastern Reactions to Trump’s Election:
Middle Eastern leaders express a mix of shock and caution toward Trump’s victory. They adjust their policies to his unpredictability, with Iran specifically hoping to exploit his focus on ISIS and potential collaboration with Russia in Syria. Saudi Arabia, however, worries about a possible Trump-Russia-Iran axis in Syria, which might empower Assad and overlook Syrian suffering.
Iranian Leadership’s Perception of President-Elect Trump:
Iranian leaders are cautious about making judgments about President-elect Trump due to limited information. They view him as a businessman and believe he may eventually come to terms with Iran’s importance in regional issues. They expect Trump to prioritize the fight against ISIS, potentially leading to cooperation with Russia and Iran, who are allies in Syria.
Iran’s Potential Response to Abrogation of Nuclear Agreement:
Iran believes it can strike a deal with President-elect Trump, but is prepared to revert to hostility if the nuclear agreement is abrogated. Abrogating the agreement would benefit hardliners in Iran, but is unlikely to result in new sanctions due to the agreement’s international support.
Saudi Arabia’s Concerns about Trump’s Policy in Syria:
Saudi Arabia fears that Trump’s cooperation with Russia and Iran in Syria could harm Syrian civilians. They emphasize that Bashar al-Assad and his allies, including Iran, are the primary perpetrators of violence against Syrian people. Saudi Arabia hopes Trump will consult with America’s allies in the Middle East before making decisions about Syria.
Post-Deal Iranian Activities in Syria:
Iran’s military presence in Syria has escalated post-nuclear deal, with significant Revolutionary Guard deployments. Milani calls for a political resolution to the Syrian conflict, criticizing oversimplified portrayals of the situation and advocating for Saudi-Iranian cooperation to halt the bloodshed.
U.S.-Saudi vs. U.S.-Iran Relations:
The U.S. maintains stronger ties with Saudi Arabia compared to Iran, though it seeks to improve relations with both. The necessity for dialogue between major regional players like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt is highlighted, requiring attention to mutual concerns and proactive steps.
The Trump Administration’s Middle East Focus:
The new U.S. administration is expected to prioritize ISIS elimination and then reduce its Middle Eastern involvement. Internally, it may focus on repealing Obamacare, defense buildup, and infrastructure projects.
Complex Regional Coalitions and Policy Challenges:
Middle Eastern alliances, including tacit cooperation between Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates, and Russia’s growing influence, complicate the geopolitical landscape. These dynamics may conflict with the Trump administration’s domestic focus.
Obama’s Remaining Term and Potential Actions:
Speculation surrounds President Obama’s possible foreign policy moves in his final months, including actions related to Palestine, Iran, and the United Nations.
Post-ISIL Mosul, Yemen’s Role, and Resolution 2216
Following the successful operation against ISIL in Mosul, the challenge lies in managing the aftermath. Sincere cooperation and power-sharing among the Iraqi government, Iranian-backed militias, and Shiites is crucial to prevent future conflicts. Saudi Arabia’s concern about Yemen’s security is understandable, given its proximity. Resolution 2216 provides a framework for achieving a stable peace in Yemen, but the situation remains unclear amidst conflicting reports.
Discussion on Peacekeeping and Regional Involvement in Yemen and the Middle East
A policing mechanism is necessary to enforce any ceasefire agreement in Yemen and prevent future violations. Resolution 2216 demands that Houthi forces withdraw from occupied cities, release seized weapons, and free prisoners, but a ceasefire without a policing mechanism will not ensure compliance. Arab participation in peacekeeping forces in Yemen and other regional conflicts would demonstrate their commitment to regional security and stability.
Saudi Arabia’s Perspective on Iran
Saudi Arabia and Iran share an unchangeable relationship due to their geographical proximity and shared Islamic faith, despite Iran being ruled by black turban-wearing leaders who claim descent from the Prophet Muhammad. Saudi Arabia desires peace and stability in the region, including within Iran, and wants Iran to remain a constructive player. Saudi Arabia denies providing support to groups operating within Iran, prioritizing the prevention of centrifugal forces that could negatively impact neighboring countries.
Insights into Regional Stability and American Foreign Policy:
Experts stress the importance of regional stability and self-reliance, noting the need for Arab leadership in conflict resolution and cautioning against the unpredictability of American foreign policy under Trump.
Foreign Intervention and Instability in Iran
Historically, regional powers like the British and Russians have attempted to destabilize Iran by supporting various ethnic groups within the country. Recently, there has been a resurgence of this activity, with unknown parties providing support to Iranian Kurds, Baluchis, and Arabs, leading to increased anti-government activity. Additionally, some countries are providing support to the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, an organization considered an existential threat by Iran, which is a dangerous game as it invites retaliation. The speaker condemns all forms of intervention in Iran and Iranian intervention in other countries, emphasizing that this tit-for-tat approach only leads to further instability. He urges all parties to cease supporting elements aimed at destabilizing other countries in the region.
Addressing Challenges and Preserving Stability in the Middle East
Nabil Fahmy’s proposal for Arab cooperation should be pursued to address differences and conflicts. Removing trade barriers within the Arab world could significantly increase intra-regional trade. The GCC should prioritize unification to enhance stability and address regional challenges. The US should adopt a realistic approach to the Middle East, recognizing the challenges and complexities of the region. A cold-blooded assessment of what is possible in the Middle East is necessary to avoid wishful thinking and ineffective policies. Detaching from the Middle East would be detrimental, given its strategic importance and potential consequences. The Arab world needs to address its managing change and national security deficits. Managing change effectively and leading rather than reacting to events is crucial for regional stability. Reducing over-reliance on foreign entities for national security and enhancing regional self-reliance are essential. Being more self-dependent and regionally dependent would enable the Arab world to become better partners and interlocutors with the international community. Preserving the nation-state system requires addressing internal problems and developing models tailored to regional needs and constituencies. The lack of Arab leadership in resolving regional conflicts like Libya, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Syria, and Yemen is concerning. The Arab world needs to come up with specific proposals to move forward and engage others in addressing regional challenges. The expanded Arab League, with 22 member states, requires consideration of diverse opinions and perspectives. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have a significant role in addressing regional issues and promoting stability.
Addressing Diplomatic Relations, Regional Dynamics, and Political Change in the Middle East
The need for increased strategic engagement and dialogue between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is emphasized. Leadership changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia have led to issues that require resolution. More intensive contacts between these countries are strongly supported. Excessive militarization in the region, driven by countries spending excessively, is noted. Historical examples of militarization’s negative consequences, such as Iran in the 1970s, are cited. Despotism and insufficient respect for human rights are also prevalent, including in Iran. The importance of recognizing internal problems in the Middle East is emphasized. Blaming others for problems hinders the ability to solve them. Egyptians favoring President Trump during the election due to perceived support for President el-Sisi and opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood are mentioned. Expectations of improved relations with the United States under President Trump are noted. Egyptians preferred President-elect Trump due to dissatisfaction with American policies and the perception that Secretary Clinton represented a continuation of the existing political system. Factors beyond the position on extremism influenced this preference. Middle Easterners who met President Trump and Secretary Clinton may feel somewhat comfortable but unsatisfied with both candidates.
Impact of the US Presidential Election on the Middle East
– Speaker 09 cautioned against Egyptians becoming overly enthusiastic about either candidate, emphasizing that institutions may not always control presidents and predicting less satisfaction with the Trump presidency after six months.
– Speaker 02 agreed, highlighting Trump’s “America first” stance as a departure from internationalist norms, but cautioned against assuming continuity and emphasized the importance of building domestic strength.
– Deborah Amos raised the possibility of US allies reassessing relationships and acting more independently.
– Speaker 02 noted Trump’s statements on nuclear weapons could lead to countries reconsidering nuclear options, a transformative development for the region.
– Turki bin Faisal Al Saud stressed the need for regional countries to focus on internal stability to withstand unpredictable policies from major powers.
Managing Unpredictability: Adapting to Change and Responsibility
– The unexpected electoral victories of Trump and Sanders reflect a desire for change and the end of the Cold War’s clear enemy.
– Selling the importance of foreign policy expenditures is difficult without a direct threat, leading to the search for a new threat to justify foreign policy.
– Russian foreign policy has shifted from ideological to focusing on immediate national security gains.
– Unpredictability can be seen as advantageous by some elements in Iran, who believe it can harm American allies and view it as a strategy to prepare for various scenarios.
The article emphasizes the necessity for Middle Eastern nations to prioritize internal stability and independent decision-making in an uncertain global order marked by changing U.S. policies.
Saudi Arabia balances complex regional conflicts, seeking internal solutions while navigating Iran's and Turkey's influence, with domestic challenges like youth unemployment and governance reforms shaping its foreign policy....
The Middle East faces challenges due to conflicts, state-building struggles, and shifting global and regional leadership roles. Diplomacy and collaboration among key regional players are crucial for addressing these issues and promoting stability and humanitarian efforts....
Saudi Arabia has evolved from diverse Bedouin tribes to a unified nation-state, playing a significant regional role while countering extremism and fostering global dialogue. Saudi Arabia's commitment to countering terrorism and fostering dialogue forms a crucial part of its international engagement....
Saudi Arabia actively participates in the United Nations, promoting peace initiatives and combating extremism, while facing challenges in its relationship with Iran and addressing accusations of supporting extremism. Saudi Arabia seeks to balance traditional values with modern geopolitics, promoting peace and stability in the Middle East and beyond....
Saudi Arabia navigates regional crises with a diplomatic strategy focused on stability, security, and cooperation, advocating for energy diversification and countering transnational terrorism. Saudi Arabia's foreign policy centers on regional security, stability, and diplomatic maneuvering amidst prevailing uncertainties....
Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, driven by a blend of pragmatism and strategic foresight, emphasizes regional stability, energy security, and economic prosperity. The Kingdom's global influence stems from its immense oil reserves, economic clout, and strategic approach to regional challenges....
Prince Turki al Faisal's diplomatic journey exemplifies the complexities of modern international relations, underscoring the need for cultural understanding and nuanced strategies to address global challenges....