Distinguished Lecture Series Overview:
An esteemed lecture series is being launched by the Environmental Energy Technologies Division at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, inviting renowned thinkers from around the world to discuss energy and environment. The first lecture will feature Vinod Khosla, a visionary entrepreneur and investor, who will speak on the topic, “Inventing the Future.”

Significance of the Lecture Series:
The series aims to create a forum for thought-provoking conversations, bridging the gap between scientific research and practical solutions for global energy and environmental challenges.

History of EETD Division:
The Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD) has a rich history dating back to 1973, when it was established in response to the first energy crisis. Influential figures like Art Rosenfeld, Bob Budnitz, and Mark Levine played a pivotal role in shaping the division’s legacy.

Objective of the Lecture Series:
To nurture the next generation of thought leaders in energy and environment, while seeking external perspectives to foster innovation.

Introduction of Vinod Khosla:
Vinod Khosla, a renowned entrepreneur and investor, is the inaugural speaker for the lecture series and will discuss his insights on “Inventing the Future.”

All Models Are Wrong:
Pundits and econometric models often make erroneous forecasts due to their reliance on past history and extrapolation.

The Case of Mobile Phones:
McKinsey’s forecast for mobile phones in the year 2000 was significantly incorrect, forecasting under a million phones when in reality there were 109 million. The error stemmed from using yesterday’s technology to predict the future, as the actual phone in 2000 was much smaller than the handset cord of the 1980 phone.

Predicting the Future:
Rather than relying on models, it is better to predict the future by considering important criteria such as relevant cost, scale, and adoption.

Materiality to Climate Change:
For a technology to be material to climate change, it must address at least 80% of the category and cause at least an 80% reduction in carbon in that category. It must also be cost-effective and scalable, as technologies that are too expensive or difficult to adopt will not make a meaningful impact.

Adoption Risk:
The adoption risk of a technology is crucial, as even if it is economically sensible, resistance to adoption can hinder its effectiveness.

Efficiency and Hydrogen:
Efficiency measures are often touted for their cost-saving potential, but adoption remains a challenge. Hydrogen, despite its potential, faces high adoption risks.

Problem Simplification:
Vinod Khosla presents a simplified approach to tackling climate change, emphasizing the importance of addressing the most significant contributors to carbon emissions: oil, coal, cement, and steel.

Focus on Scale and Efficiency:
Efficiency, while valuable, is limited in its ability to solve the climate crisis. It primarily serves as a tool to reduce coal and oil consumption. Electric cars, relying on existing battery technologies, face limitations in achieving widespread adoption due to inherent cost and material constraints.

Importance of Black Swan Technologies:
Khosla highlights the need for black swan technologies, radical ideas capable of driving transformative change. These technologies, like eStore’s ceramic battery chemistry, hold the potential to overcome existing limitations and make clean energy solutions scalable.

Addressing Wind and Photovoltaic Limitations:
While wind and photovoltaics have the potential for rapid growth, they remain insufficient to address the 95% of global electricity needs. Integrating these renewable energy sources requires scalable storage technologies, not incremental improvements in turbine efficiency.

Geothermal Potential with Engineered Systems:
Geothermal offers promising potential, but only through engineered systems that unlock its scalability. Conventional geothermal technologies remain limited in their impact on the climate change problem.

Scalable Solutions:
Khosla emphasizes the need for solutions that can achieve 80% lower carbon emissions for a billion cars, considering adoption risks and price points. These solutions should focus on replacing coal with water as a power source, rather than solely expanding wind and photovoltaics.

Technology Focus:
Prioritizing technology over behavioral change for efficient energy utilization, given the practicality of incremental efforts. Recognizing the limitations of subsidies and highlighting the need to achieve unsubsidized market competitiveness.

Key Technology Requirements:
Emphasis on scalable technologies with short innovation cycles. Advantages of nuclear technology contingent on breakthrough cooling innovations, with a potential first deployment by 2030. Solar thermal technology preferred for its rapid deployment and continuous innovation cycles every six months. Importance of declining costs with scale.

Challenges in Wind Energy:
Wind turbines reaching their efficiency limit, leading to increased costs with larger blade sizes. Limited availability of optimal wind sites, posing a scalability issue as lower-quality sites are utilized.

Technology’s Transformative Power:
Technology’s ability to expand the field of possibility and transform unimaginable concepts into conventional wisdom. Historical examples of technology disrupting industries, such as free long-distance calls challenging AT&T’s business model. The importance of embracing technological advancements, as demonstrated by the rise of Google and the internet, and the pharmaceutical industry’s oversight of biotechnology.

Black Swan Solutions:
Acknowledgment of rare and impactful events with unpredictable outcomes, often explained retrospectively. The Black Swan book’s accurate prediction of the current financial crisis exemplifies this concept.

Trajectory:
Consider the potential trajectory of a technology, not just its current state. Focus on what can be, not what is. Trajectory matters and is often overlooked in policy choices.

Adoption Risk:
Understand the adoption risk associated with a technology. Consider factors such as manufacturing costs, scalability, and political acceptance. The Tata Nano is an example of a technology with high adoption potential due to its low cost.

Capital Formation:
Attract capital by demonstrating clear investor returns and achieving unsubsidized market competitiveness. The capital required to replace all gasoline in the US is comparable to investments made during the telecom internet boom in the 1990s. Create stepping stones for investor returns through a stair-step process, enabling gradual infrastructure development and technology adoption.

Optionality:
Increase the probability of technical success by considering multiple feedstock sources, technical pathways, and fuel options. The more options available, the greater the optionality and the higher the chances of success.

Technical Progress as a Determinant of Energy Transition:
Technical progress dictates the course of automotive transition: If battery technology advances rapidly while liquid fuel technology lags, electric vehicles will dominate. If both technologies progress moderately, their market shares will be more evenly distributed. The transition’s trajectory remains uncertain and cannot be extrapolated from past trends.

Criteria for Evaluating Alternative Energy Options:
Key evaluation criteria for energy technologies include: Cost-effectiveness Carbon emission reduction potential Scalability Capital formation feasibility Low adoption risk Optionality, allowing for flexibility in technology choice

Avoidance of Unsensible Approaches:
Solar energy deployment should prioritize locations with optimal solar resources over symbolic displays. Zero-energy buildings may not be a practical solution due to cost and efficiency considerations. Hybrid cars are an expensive means of reducing carbon emissions compared to other alternatives. Hydrogen technology requires careful evaluation to ensure its environmental benefits.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Biofuels:
Biofuel’s carbon impact varies depending on production methods. A CLAW (Carbon, Land, Air, and Water) rating system is proposed to assess the environmental impact of biofuels. Policy interventions can leverage biofuels to curb deforestation by banning agricultural imports from countries not meeting deforestation reduction targets.

Important Points:
“Main tech,” not “clean tech,” is essential for reducing carbon emissions. “Main tech” refers to technologies related to engines, lighting, appliances, batteries, gasoline, jet fuel, etc., which affect everyday life. The goal is to reduce carbon by 80% in these sectors.

Investments and Technologies:
Vinod Khosla divides the investment portfolio into four areas: War on coal: utility-scale solar and engineered geothermal.

-War on oil: advanced biofuels, flow cells, and new combustion engine technologies
War on efficiency: electrical/mechanical efficiency, lighting, batteries, homes, and pumps. New materials: water, building materials like cement, and glass.

Highlights of Each Investment:
Engineered geothermal: creating geothermal wells instead of relying on existing ones. Solar thermal: using mirrors to generate steam for cheap energy storage. Photovoltaics: focusing on high-efficiency, low-cost thin film multi-junction technologies. Natural gas from coal and biomass for renewable and lower carbon emissions. Biomimicry and CFD for applications in wind turbines and HVAC, creating energy-efficient pumps inspired by nature. Prefabricated Leeds platinum homes, combining sustainability with aesthetics. Opposing piston engines for higher efficiency and better drivability. Transonic’s third type of ignition for engines, challenging traditional approaches.

Fuel Efficiency Improvement:
A company has developed a fuel injector retrofit that enables higher engine efficiency (50-100% improvement) by injecting fuel before the compression cycle, avoiding self-ignition.

Cylinder Deactivation and Vibration Control:
Another company employs an electronic control unit to selectively turn off engine cylinders. Despite the resulting engine imbalance, advanced balancing techniques dynamically adjust the firing pattern to cancel out vibrations at high RPMs.

Solid Electrolyte Batteries:
Natasha’s company is developing solid electrolyte batteries, eliminating the flammable liquid electrolyte issue and enhancing safety.

Computational Battery Design:
Shakti 3 from the University of Michigan uses a computational design approach to design batteries, offering a novel approach to battery development.

Improved Lead Acid Batteries:
Firefly focuses on improving lead acid batteries by reducing the inactive lead atoms and developing carbon form structure plates coated with lead. This approach exceeds nickel metal hydride energy density with lead acid costs and has the potential to match lithium ion energy density with lead acid cost structure.

Blue Lasers and LED Efficiency:
Kai’s work at UCSB involves developing blue lasers and improving LED efficiency using non-polar and semi-polar crystals. This approach has the potential to revolutionize LED efficiency and direct generation.

Advanced Lighting Technologies:
Topanga has developed a lighting technology that places the bulb outside the resonator and uses RF coupling to collect all the light, resulting in improved efficiency. This approach also enables efficient plasma generation and allows for trade-offs between efficiency and color quality.

Range:
Develops biofuels by converting syngas from biomass into ethanol.

Coscata:
Improves Range’s process by using biology to convert syngas to ethanol.

Lanzatec:
Creates a bug that produces its hydrogen and uses flue gases to produce ethanol.

Mascoma:
Reduces enzyme loading in traditional biomass fermentation.

Amyris Biotechnologies:
Applies the technology used for malaria drug production to produce diesel.

LS9:
Optimizes energy production by microbes in collaboration with George Church.

GEVO:
Produces butanol from biomass using Caltech’s technology.

Cure:
Converts biomass directly into crude using catalytic processes.

Calera:
Converts coal plant emissions into cement, eliminating the need for CCS.

Dratz:
Works on bioplastics through cross-disciplinary microbial and chemical processes.

Geddes:
Produces bioplastics using different intermediates.

Electrochromic Glass:
Licensed technology out of LBL for energy-saving glass.

Overview:
Vinod Khosla, a renowned expert in cleantech, provides an overview of his vision for a sustainable future, highlighting advancements in various sectors that have the potential to transform our approach to energy, infrastructure, and materials.

Transformative Technologies:
Khosla presents a glimpse into the world of cutting-edge technologies that have the potential to reshape our daily lives. These include innovations in solar energy, electrochromic windows, fuel efficiency, lighting solutions, electricity generation, and more.

Feasibility and Replication:
Khosla emphasizes the feasibility and replicability of these technologies. He believes that implementing these solutions on a large scale, with hundreds of similar portfolios worldwide, could significantly address the challenges we face in sustainability.

Encouraging Failure as a Key to Success:
Khosla stresses the importance of embracing failure in the process of innovation. Trying out ideas that may not succeed is crucial to achieving breakthroughs and driving progress.

Potential for Replacement Technologies:
Khosla identifies many existing technologies as ripe for replacement with more efficient and eco-friendly alternatives. He sees immense potential in developing novel solutions, such as quantum well thermoelectrics, microwave-based catalysis, hydrogen batteries, and advanced cooling systems.

Efficient Cooling Through Solar Energy:
Khosla highlights the potential of utilizing solar energy directly as thermal heat to produce cooling instead of relying solely on electrical energy. This would provide significant energy savings and reduce the demand for electricity, especially during peak hours.

System-Level Optimization Opportunities:
Khosla emphasizes the need to consider system-level optimization when implementing new technologies. Combining different systems, such as PV and efficiency measures, can lead to further energy savings and cost reductions.

Ultracapacitors and Scale-Up Capital:
Khosla discusses the need for more radical solutions beyond ultracapacitors, which he considers too expensive. He highlights the importance of scale-up capital in the cleantech industry, emphasizing the challenges faced by technologies like solar thermal due to the lack of investment in large-scale projects.

Carbon Negative Cement:
• Vinod Khosla asserts that with a carbon price of $30-40 per ton, it is possible to produce carbon-negative cement free of charge.
• His Calera cement, made from seawater, captures magnesium from the water and CO2 from power plants, achieving carbon negativity.

Public Transportation’s Carbon Emissions:
• Khosla reveals a surprising finding from his calculations: carbon emissions per passenger mile on heavy rail are comparable to a regular car.
• He emphasizes the importance of analytical thinking and verifying calculations.

Artificial Photosynthetic Proposals:
• Khosla acknowledges the promise of artificial photosynthetic solutions, including solar-to-fuel conversion and hydrogen production via PVs.
• He highlights research from Israel and Caltech in this area.

Future Investments in Clean Technologies:
• Khosla believes that the next generation of clean technologies, to be developed in the next five years, holds even greater promise than current solutions.
• He stresses the critical role of research and innovation in driving progress toward carbon-neutral solutions.

Engineered Geothermal:
• Khosla explains that engineered geothermal involves creating artificial geothermal wells by fracturing the earth at depths of two to five miles.
• Heat from magma exists everywhere on the planet, making this solution highly scalable.

Investment in Clean Technologies:
• Khosla views the recent surge in clean technology investments as a positive trend and does not consider it a bubble.
• He argues that stock market bubbles are distinct from real-world innovation and growth in sectors like internet traffic.

Global Innovation in Clean Technologies:
• Khosla emphasizes that innovation in clean technologies is emerging from various parts of the world, including New Zealand, the Netherlands, China, and many others.
• He acknowledges the presence of bright minds everywhere, contributing to the development of novel solutions.