Introducing the Speaker:
Dan Riker, Director of Climate Change and Energy Initiatives at Google.org, welcomes participants to the talk on Earth Day. He introduces Vinod Khosla, a prominent guest speaker and co-founder of Daisy Systems and Sun Microsystems.

Earth Day Significance:
Riker shares his personal anecdote about leading his school’s Earth Day celebration in 1970, highlighting the early focus on local environmental issues.

Current Environmental Challenges:
Fast forward to today, the planet faces complex environmental challenges, both technically and politically. Despite this, there is a growing consensus on the need for urgent action to address these issues.

Positive Developments:
Riker emphasizes the improving tools and resources available to respond to environmental challenges. He highlights significant events happening on Earth Day 2009, including a hearing on climate change legislation in Washington, D.C., and President Obama’s visit to a wind turbine parts factory in Iowa.

Vinod Khosla’s Background:
Riker introduces Vinod Khosla as a co-founder of Daisy Systems and founding CEO of Sun Microsystems. He describes Khosla’s transition from Sun to Kleiner Perkins in 1986, where he became a venture capitalist. In 2004, Khosla formed Coastal Ventures to support both traditional venture capital technology and clean technology ventures, as well as social impact initiatives.

Unreasonable People Drive Change:
Khosla emphasizes that change depends on individuals who are unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom and pursue innovative ideas. He believes that the current crises present an opportunity for positive change.

Short-sighted Forecasts and the Power of Technology:
Khosla cites examples of notable failures in forecasting technological advancements, such as Western Union’s skepticism of the telephone and Digital Equipment Corporation’s dismissal of the need for computers in homes. He highlights the challenges in accurately predicting future energy scenarios due to the rapid pace of technological development.

Inaccuracy of Energy Forecasts:
Khosla presents historical data on oil and gas price forecasts, demonstrating their significant errors even over short time frames. He attributes these inaccuracies to the inherent limitations of forecasting and the biases influenced by individuals’ beliefs and assumptions.

The Black Swan Theory and Technology Sharks:
Khosla introduces the concept of “black swans” from Nassim Taleb’s work, referring to rare events of extreme impact that are only predictable in retrospect. He suggests that technology sharks, representing disruptive technologies with transformative potential, can be positive black swans.

The Importance of Experimentation and Innovation:
Khosla emphasizes the need for increased experimentation and innovation to increase the chances of success in addressing challenges like the energy crisis. He encourages a mindset of embracing change and investing in research and development to foster technological breakthroughs.

Black Swan Scenarios:
Khosla raises the possibility of unexpected solutions for climate change, such as using more coal-powered plants to clean up the air.

The Problem of Cement:
Cement production is a major source of CO2 emissions due to the high temperatures required to produce it.

Carbon Sequestration:
Khosla expresses skepticism about conventional carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) methods, such as capturing CO2 from coal plants and storing it underground, due to their potential energy inefficiencies and costs.

A New Approach:
Khosla introduces a novel approach proposed by a Stanford professor, which involves using CO2 as a feedstock to make building materials, such as limestone.

The Potential Solution:
Khosla sees promise in this approach as it could potentially utilize large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere while simultaneously reducing the environmental impact of cement production.

The 90% Chance:
Vinod Khosla’s initial skepticism about a successful solution has shifted to a 90% confidence in its potential. However, he emphasizes that certainty is still lacking.

Carbon Sequestration through Biomass:
Khosla highlights a method where the right feedstock for plants can capture carbon dioxide and store it in the soil, leading to increased soil carbon while reducing atmospheric carbon.

A Million-Year Crude Production Cycle:
Khosla recounts a conversation with an Exxon scientist who pointed out that crude oil originates from biomass over millions of years. This triggered an idea for a biofuel that could achieve the same result in a shorter timeframe.

Removing Oxygen from Biomass:
Khosla describes a straightforward chemical process for creating a biofuel by removing oxygen from biomass, resulting in a hydrogen and carbon composition similar to hydrocarbons.

Increasing Combustion Efficiency:
Khosla mentions an idea to improve fuel efficiency by modifying fuel injectors to introduce supercritical fluid into the cylinder instead of fuel, potentially doubling combustion efficiency.

Black Swans for Batteries:
Khosla emphasizes the need for a battery “black swan” to make electric cars scalable and to enable the full potential of wind and solar energy.

Solving Carbon Problems:
Khosla stresses that addressing the four main carbon sources – oil, coal, cement, and steel – is crucial for combating climate change. He advocates focusing on these issues rather than numerous inconsequential solutions.

Evaluating Solutions:
Khosla outlines key criteria for evaluating solutions, including relevant cost, scale, and adoption.

The Chindia Price:
Khosla introduces the “Chindia price” as a benchmark for assessing the viability of renewable solutions. A solution must be economically competitive with fossil fuels in India and China without subsidies to be considered a meaningful solution.

Distributed Exponential Scaling:
Khosla highlights the importance of distributed exponential scaling models, inspired by the internet and computing industries, for effective scaling of climate change solutions.

Cost Trajectory:
Technologies must have a declining cost with scale to be viable. Wind does not have a declining cost with scale due to limited real estate site options. Photovoltaics can achieve declining costs through multiple generations of technology. It is important to consider the relative proportion of module costs, feedstock/land costs, and construction costs when evaluating total cost.

Carbon Trajectory:
Early-stage technologies often have high carbon emissions due to short lives, low efficiencies, and energy-intensive production processes. It is important to consider the carbon trajectory of a technology to ensure that it aligns with long-term climate goals. Natural gas may provide an initial decline in carbon but lacks a significant long-term improvement.

Scalability:
Scalability is critical for technologies to have a meaningful impact on global energy needs. Geothermal energy is limited in scalability due to its site-specific nature. Solar energy requires a significant amount of land for large-scale electricity production but can be transmitted over long distances.

Adoption Risk:
Adoption risk refers to the likelihood that a technology will be widely adopted by consumers and industries. Electric cars face adoption challenges due to high costs and limited driving range. The Tata Nano, a $2,500 car in India, has a higher potential for adoption due to its affordability and potential for high sales volume. Biofuels may be more easily adopted if they can produce a crude oil equivalent that is attractive to existing oil companies and consumers.

Optionality:
Optionality refers to the ability of a technology to adapt to changing circumstances and future developments. Biofuels offer optionality due to their diverse feedstock options and potential for integration with existing infrastructure.

Options for Biofuel Production:
Biofuels offer a range of options, with increasing volume and decreasing cost as desired. Food-based biofuels are economically unviable and should be avoided.

Potential for Liquid and Electric Fuels:
Various fuel options exist, indicated in green on the graph, increasing the probability of success. Hybrids and electric cars are not discounted, with batteries and black swans being high priorities.

Competition Between Biofuels and Batteries:
The graph shows a potential competition between biofuels and battery technologies. Slow battery development will lead to increased liquid fuel usage, while rapid battery development will favor electric vehicles.

Importance of Capital Formation:
Capital formation is crucial for scaling innovation. Short innovation cycles, short investor return cycles, and eventually unsubsidized market competition are important factors for scalability.

Addressing India and China’s Markets:
The goal is to make biofuels economically viable in India and China’s fast-growing markets without relying on subsidies or regulations.

Sustainable Development:
Vinod Khosla emphasizes the importance of improving carbon productivity, the amount of carbon emissions per dollar of GDP, to achieve sustainable development. He argues that focusing solely on carbon reduction is ineffective and advocates for building capacity for carbon sequestration, reduction, and efficiency improvements through technological advancements.

Carbon Reduction Capacity:
Khosla introduces the concept of carbon reduction capacity building as a crucial factor in solving the climate change problem. He suggests investing in retrofitting existing buildings for energy efficiency and utilizing new capital to construct energy-efficient infrastructure, rather than focusing primarily on carbon reduction.

Critique of Environmental Campaigns:
Khosla criticizes certain environmental campaigns for promoting misleading and ineffective measures, such as using one sheet of toilet paper instead of two or promoting eco-bikinis. He emphasizes that these superficial actions do not significantly impact climate change and highlights the need for more substantial societal transformations.

Examples of Ineffective Projects:
Khosla cites examples of failed projects, such as the Oakland hydrogen fuel cell bus initiative, which resulted in significantly higher operating costs compared to diesel buses. He also criticizes the installation of photovoltaics on the Moscone Center in San Francisco, arguing that it was an unwise decision due to the city’s foggy climate, reducing the effectiveness of solar panels.

Energy Storage:
Khosla emphasizes the importance of energy storage, particularly for renewable energy sources like wind. He suggests exploring innovative storage solutions beyond batteries to enable the scalability of wind energy.

Critique of Zero Emission Buildings and Palm Oil:
Khosla criticizes the concept of zero-emission buildings, arguing that they lead to uneconomic scales due to the fragmentation of energy generation. He also highlights the limitations of food-based fuels, such as palm oil, due to their low yield and land use implications.

Non-Food Biomass Crops:
Khosla proposes exploring non-food biomass crops as a sustainable alternative to food-based fuels. He suggests that non-food crops can achieve significantly higher yields, potentially resolving land use concerns.

Degraded Land Restoration:
Khosla argues that degraded agricultural land can be restored to its original health through appropriate agronomic practices. This restoration can potentially provide a sustainable source of biomass for energy production.

Addressing Carbon Reduction:
Prius, a hybrid vehicle, is an expensive solution for carbon reduction, costing over a hundred dollars per ton of carbon removed. Painting a roof white can save more carbon dioxide and cost less than buying a Prius. Electric cars powered by coal-generated electricity won’t reduce carbon emissions.

Efficient Water Usage:
Average North American water consumption is high, ranging from 100 to 150 liters per person. Growing one kilogram of wheat requires 1,000 liters of water, while one kilogram of beef requires 15,000 liters. Reducing meat consumption can significantly save water and carbon emissions.

Environmental Pragmatism:
Vinod Khosla emphasizes the need for pragmatic solutions, avoiding both inaction and overzealous environmentalism. Exxon’s approach is more grounded in business realities, such as disciplined investment and market competitiveness. However, Exxon’s weakness lies in forecasting technological advancements that can disrupt the energy landscape.

Technological Innovation and Disruption:
Technology expands possibilities, transforming the unimaginable into conventional wisdom. The rapid adoption of computers and email demonstrates how technology can revolutionize societal norms. Khosla believes that technological innovations will surprise and challenge traditional industries like Exxon.

Technological Surprises:
Vinod Khosla highlights the difficulty in predicting technological changes, citing examples from the rise of the internet, the dominance of cell phones, and the financial crisis.

London’s Electric Connections:
Khosla presents a chart showing the number of electric connections in London from 1890 to 1899, indicating the early skepticism surrounding the adoption of new technologies.

Denial and Comfort Zones:
He emphasizes the human tendency to resist change and remain comfortable with familiar technologies, leading to an underestimation of the potential impact of new innovations.

The Dot-Com Bubble:
Khosla argues that the dot-com bubble was a financial phenomenon rather than a reflection of actual internet usage, as evidenced by the continued growth of internet traffic despite the stock market collapse.

Real-Life Use vs. Stock Prices:
He stresses the importance of focusing on real-world usage rather than stock prices when assessing the value of a technology, as stock prices can be distorted by market perceptions.

Railroad Bubble:
Khosla draws a parallel between the dot-com bubble and the railroad bubble in the 1830s, demonstrating that bubbles are a recurring phenomenon in technological advancements.

Main Tech, Not Cleantech:
Khosla believes that the focus should be on “main tech,” the infrastructure of society, rather than solely on cleantech. He emphasizes the importance of scalability, cost, and capital formation in the development of renewable energy technologies.

Four Areas of Focus:
Khosla identifies four areas of investment: the war on coal, the war on efficiency, the war on oil, and new materials, with water being a crucial new material.

Real-World Applications:
He provides examples of how renewable energy and clean technologies are already impacting our lives, such as electrochromic windows, bioplastics, and more efficient air conditioners.

Cost-Effectiveness:
Khosla predicts that renewable energy technologies will become cheaper than fossil fuels within the next five to six years, making them more accessible and competitive.

Increased Demand and Environmental Benefits:
He argues that as renewable energy becomes more affordable, demand will increase, leading to a reduction in carbon emissions and a shift towards low-carbon energy sources.

Addressing Deforestation:
Khosla advocates using biofuels as a tool to reduce deforestation by setting deforestation targets for exporting countries.

Agricultural Practices and Carbon Sequestration:
He proposes implementing sustainable agricultural practices, such as long crop rotations, to increase carbon sequestration in soils and restore degraded land for food production.

Carbon Negative Cement:
Khosla introduces the concept of carbon negative cement, which can make cities greener than forests by sequestering carbon during construction.

Autonomous Cars:
While he hasn’t delved deeply into the impact of autonomous cars, Khosla acknowledges the potential for them to affect transportation and parking.