Overall Introduction:
This is a summary of a presentation given by Subhashish Kaushal, a professor at McGill’s Faculty of Engineering and Director of the Trottier Institute for Sustainability in Engineering and Design (TICED). The presentation was part of the Fundacio 3E speaker program, which promotes energy literacy and sustainable engineering.

Speaker Background:
Subhashish Kaushal welcomed attendees from various Montreal universities and introduced himself as the director of TICED. He highlighted the collaboration between McGill and Fundacio 3E over the past five years, sharing core beliefs in energy literacy, integrative design, and non-emitting energy sources.

Michel Gelina’s Address:
Michel Gelina, president of Fundacio 3E, addressed the audience, emphasizing the importance of energy literacy and teamwork among engineers, urban planners, and architects to reduce energy consumption. He presented three sub-beliefs guiding Fundacio 3E’s work:
1. Energy literacy is essential for effective management.
2. Energy literate professionals can design environments that reduce energy footprints.
3. Transition to non-emitting energy sources and utilization of passive energy sources are desirable.

Vaclav Smil’s Introduction:
Subhashish Kaushal introduced Vaclav Smil, a distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a renowned interdisciplinary researcher and author. He highlighted Vaclav’s achievements, including being listed among the top 100 global thinkers, receiving the Order of Canada, and winning the OPEC Research Award.

Conclusion:
Vaclav Smil was invited to the podium to deliver his talk on energy literacy and sustainability, which was highly anticipated by the audience.

Fossil-Fueled Civilization:
We are heavily dependent on fossil fuels for energy. In 1990, 90% of global primary energy supply came from fossil fuels. In 2023, fossil fuels still account for 87% of global energy supply.

Slow Energy Transitions:
Energy transitions take a long time due to various factors. Scale matters: large-scale transitions are more challenging. Power density matters: fossil fuels are energy-dense and difficult to replace.

Energy Efficiency and Innovation:
Rational energy use is more effective than pursuing new technologies. Innovation is often overvalued, and we still rely on technologies from the 1880s.

Renewable Energy Growth:
In the past 25 years, renewable energy sources have grown from 10% to 13% of global energy supply. New renewables (wind, solar, and modern biofuels) currently account for 2.5% of global energy supply.

Challenges of Rapid Renewable Energy Expansion:
Doubling the share of new renewables in the next 25 years would still result in a modest 5% share. Tripling the rate of new renewable energy introduction would only achieve a 7.5% to 8% share.

Historical Context:
Energy transitions in major countries are typically gradual and take decades. Small nations can transition more rapidly, but large nations face significant challenges. China’s reliance on coal is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

Scale and Increasing Complexity:
The transition from one energy source to another takes longer as the scale of the energy system increases. As the base of energy consumption grows, adding an extra 5% of a new energy source requires a larger absolute quantity.

Wood to Coal:
Globally, it took 35 years to transition from 5% to 25% of coal as the primary energy source. The high energy density of coal compared to wood made the transition easier.

Coal to Oil:
The transition from 5% to 25% of oil took 40 years. Oil has a higher energy density than coal and is a portable fuel, making it more versatile. However, oil distribution is uneven, requiring import for many countries, and its use requires sophisticated technologies.

Oil to Natural Gas:
The transition from 5% to 25% of natural gas has taken 55 years and is still ongoing. Natural gas has a higher energy density than coal but is less portable. The transition to natural gas is limited by the availability of specialized technologies, such as gas turbines, and the infrastructure required for its distribution.

Increasing Sophistication:
As societies move from traditional to modern energy sources, the technical requirements for energy conversion become more sophisticated. This complexity limits the rate at which new energy sources can be adopted.

Conclusion:
The transition from one energy source to another is a complex process that takes time, especially as the scale of the energy system increases and the technologies involved become more sophisticated.

Coal’s Dominance:
Coal has been the fastest-growing energy source in the past 20 years. China’s coal production has increased from 1 billion tons to almost 4 billion tons in the past 25 years.

Fossil Fuels’ Current Status:
For the first time in history, oil, coal, and gas are almost at the same level, each accounting for about 30% of the global energy mix. This balance is due to significant investments in each of these fossil fuels.

US Coal-Fired Power Plants:
The decline of coal-fired power plants in the US is primarily due to the age of these plants, rather than the availability of cheap natural gas. These plants were built in the 1950s and 1960s when electricity consumption was rapidly increasing.

China’s Energy Transition:
China’s transition to renewable energy sources is often presented as a success story. However, the country still heavily relies on coal. Despite China’s investments in renewable energy, coal remains the dominant energy source.

The Role of Technology:
The idea that technology can rapidly transition the world from fossil fuels to renewable energy is unrealistic. Technology is a science about technique, and it encompasses all tools and methods used to transform the natural world. The transition from one energy source to another takes decades, and the old rules of energy transition still apply.

China’s Rapid Expansion and Embedded Energy Situation:
China’s rapid economic growth and massive investments in coal-fired power plants resulted in an installed capacity of 60 gigawatts annually. Approximately 80% of China’s electricity generation comes from coal, leading to a significant reliance on fossil fuels. The country faces challenges in phasing out coal due to the substantial investments made in coal infrastructure and the need for stable electricity supply.

The Rise of India and Its Coal Dependence:
India is following a similar path to China, building numerous coal-fired power plants to meet its growing energy demands. India’s coal has a high ash content, requiring more fuel consumption and fly ash management. India’s energy choices are limited due to its lack of domestic natural gas and crude oil resources.

The Dominance of Crude Oil and the Mobility Revolution:
Crude oil remains the dominant energy source for mobility due to its high energy density. Increased mobility, particularly air travel, has become a significant factor in global energy consumption. Low-cost air travel has enabled widespread movement of people, leading to a rise in tourism and global connections.

The Challenges of Sustainable Aviation:
Solar and wind energy are not suitable for powering aircraft due to their low energy density. The aviation industry faces difficulties in transitioning to sustainable energy sources, hindering the decarbonization of air travel.

Increasing Vehicle Mass and Embedded Energy:
The trend towards larger, heavier vehicles, including SUVs and pickup trucks, has increased energy consumption and negated the efficiency gains of improved engines. The use of materials with higher embedded energy, such as aluminum and plastic, further contributes to the increased energy intensity of vehicles.

The Complexities of Energy Transition:
The transition to sustainable energy sources involves multiple challenges, including the embedded energy associated with material substitution and the need to address the mobility requirements of a globalized world. Balancing energy needs, environmental concerns, and economic realities is a multifaceted task that requires careful consideration and innovative solutions.

Energy Intensity of Materials:
Vaclav Smil emphasizes the high energy intensity of modern materials, including silicon for electronics, composite fibers, and titanium. He highlights the significant energy required to produce these materials, often involving complex processes and substantial energy inputs.

Capacity Factors and Intermittency of Renewable Energy:
Smil contrasts the high capacity factors (percentage of time operating) of conventional power plants, such as coal-fired and nuclear, with the low capacity factors of wind and solar power. Wind turbines in Europe typically have a capacity factor of around 25%, while American wind turbines have a capacity factor of about 30%, meaning they are not generating electricity for a significant portion of the time. Solar power in Germany, despite being the hub of solar energy in Europe, has an average load factor of only 11-12%, and even in Spain, it is around 16-17%.

Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Infrastructure:
Smil criticizes the environmental impact of renewable energy infrastructure, such as wind turbines, which require large amounts of concrete, steel, diesel fuel, and plastics for their construction. He points out the short lifespan of these structures compared to conventional power plants and the challenges associated with recycling or repowering them.

Limitations of Renewable Energy Predictions:
Smil emphasizes the difficulty in accurately predicting the availability of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, on a seasonal or annual basis. He highlights the need for significant reserve capacity to ensure reliable electricity supply when these intermittent sources are not generating sufficient power.

Conclusion:
Smil’s analysis underscores the challenges associated with relying solely on renewable energy sources, highlighting their energy-intensive nature, low capacity factors, environmental impact, and the need for reliable backup systems.

Wind Energy Limitations:
Winnipeg is an ideal location for wind turbines due to its high winds. However, during peak electricity demand in cold winters, wind turbines often fail due to a lack of wind. Manitoba relies heavily on hydroelectric power and has limited interconnection capacity with other regions, making it challenging to source electricity from elsewhere.

Challenges of Scaling Up Renewable Energy:
Storing large amounts of electricity from renewable sources, such as solar and wind, remains a significant technological hurdle. Without large-scale, affordable energy storage, transitioning to renewable energy requires substantial backup capacity from traditional sources.

Historical Context of Technological Advancements:
The modern world owes its existence to innovations from the 1880s, including the development of electricity generation, steam turbo generators, transformers, and electric motors. Internal combustion engines, invented in the same era, have formed the foundation for modern transportation and industry. Contemporary innovations, often attributed to individuals like Elon Musk, are often derivatives of these foundational technologies.

The Importance of Fundamental Research:
Maxwell’s theoretical work on electromagnetism laid the groundwork for advancements in communication technology. Hertz’s experiments confirmed Maxwell’s theories and paved the way for practical applications like radio and television. The evolution of electronics from vacuum tubes to solid-state devices demonstrates the incremental nature of technological progress.

Limits to Innovation:
Innovation alone cannot overcome certain physical limitations, such as the difficulty of storing large amounts of electricity. The rate of technological progress is often exaggerated, and radical breakthroughs are rare.

Introduction of the Solid State Transistor:
Lilienfeld’s 1924 patent for the solid state transistor laid the foundation for subsequent technological advancements.

Evolution from Transistor to Microprocessor:
The development of the transistor led to the invention of integrated circuits in the late 1950s. The integration of multiple circuits resulted in the creation of microprocessors in the 1970s by Intel.

Interconnectedness of Technological Innovations:
The development of computers and cell phones relied on the existence of microprocessors. Technological innovations are interconnected and dependent on each other.

Appreciation for Underlying Technologies:
Smil emphasizes the importance of recognizing and appreciating the fundamental technologies that support modern innovations.

Haber-Bosch Synthesis: A Critical Invention for Food Production:
Smil highlights the significance of the Haber-Bosch synthesis of ammonia, which prevents the deaths of 45% of the global population. The Haber-Bosch process addresses the nitrogen deficiency in the global ecosystem.

Challenges in Nitrogen Recycling:
The recycling of animal and human waste to replenish soil nitrogen is labor-intensive and inefficient.

The Haber-Bosch Synthesis of Ammonia:
Fritz Haber’s brilliant invention in 1909 allowed for the synthesis of ammonia from nitrogen and hydrogen, revolutionizing agriculture and food production. This process enabled the production of fertilizers, which led to a significant increase in crop yields and the ability to feed a growing global population. Without the Haber-Bosch synthesis, approximately 45% of the current human population would not have enough nitrogen to grow food.

The Importance of Nitrogen:
Nitrogen is a fundamental element for life, as it is a key component of proteins and amino acids. Proteins are essential for the growth and functioning of all living organisms. Despite its abundance in the atmosphere, nitrogen is not readily accessible to plants and animals.

China and India’s Reliance on Ammonia:
China and India, with their vast populations and limited agricultural land, heavily rely on fertilizers produced through the Haber-Bosch process to sustain their food production. Without this process, a significant portion of their populations would not have access to sufficient food.

The Haber-Bosch Synthesis as the Greatest Invention:
Vaclav Smil argues that the Haber-Bosch synthesis of ammonia is the greatest invention in human history, as it has enabled the survival and flourishing of billions of people. He emphasizes that this process is far more significant than modern technological advancements like the iPhone.

Lack of Awareness about the Haber-Bosch Synthesis:
Despite its profound impact, the Haber-Bosch synthesis is largely unknown among the general public, even among educated Westerners. This lack of awareness highlights the need for greater appreciation and understanding of the fundamental scientific and technological innovations that underpin modern society.

The Importance of Steel:
Vaclav Smil also highlights the critical role of steel in modern society. He argues that steel is more important than ever before, as it is essential for the production of virtually everything we use in our daily lives. From construction materials to transportation and manufacturing, steel is a fundamental building block of modern civilization.

Steel’s Importance in Infrastructure and Manufacturing:
Steel is a crucial material in various sectors, including construction, transportation, and manufacturing. It is used in the construction of buildings, bridges, wind turbines, and aircraft. Steel is also essential for producing photovoltaic systems and electrical furnaces.

Challenges in Sustainable Iron Production:
The primary method of iron production involves the use of coal to make coke, which is a carbon-intensive process. Direct iron reduction methods exist, but they are currently limited in scale compared to traditional methods. The production of 1.2 billion tons of pig iron annually poses a significant challenge in terms of finding sustainable alternatives to coal.

Biofuels and the Changing Landscape of the Prairies:
Biofuels, such as rapeseed, are increasingly being cultivated on the prairies. Rapeseed has become the number one crop in terms of value, surpassing wheat. The shift towards biofuels highlights the need for sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels.

Conclusion:
Steel is a vital material for modern society, but its production poses challenges in terms of sustainability. Innovations in iron production and the adoption of biofuels offer potential solutions to address these challenges.

Ethanol from Corn:
Ethanol production from corn has been mandated in the United States. Corn in the US has the highest yield globally, averaging 10 tons per hectare. The energy density of corn ethanol is calculated as 150 gigajoules per hectare per year. Dividing this energy by the number of seconds in a year and the area of one hectare, the power density is found to be only 0.5 watts per square meter.

Comparison to Fossil Fuels:
Fossil fuel production, such as oil wells in Saudi Arabia, has a much higher power density, around 10,000 watts per square meter. This means that a small number of wells can produce a significant amount of energy, while biofuels require vast areas of land.

Palm Oil as a Biofuel:
Palm oil has a higher energy density than rapeseed, making it a more efficient biofuel. However, palm oil production is associated with tropical deforestation and environmental concerns.

Land Use Implications:
To produce enough ethanol to power aviation in the US, all available land would need to be planted with corn, leaving no room for food production. Even with palm oil, which has a higher energy density, it would be challenging to meet the demand for biofuels without causing environmental damage.

Solar Energy as a Superior Option:
Solar energy has a much higher power density than biofuels, averaging 170 watts per square meter. As solar energy efficiency continues to improve, it becomes an increasingly attractive option for meeting energy demands.

The Potential of Solar Energy:
Solar energy has a significant potential for electricity generation, with an estimated 20 watts per square meter of available energy. By improving solar efficiency to 40% and utilizing locations with high capacity factors, such as deserts, large-scale solar plants can be developed.

The Need for Transmission Lines:
To utilize solar energy effectively, high-voltage transmission lines are required to transport electricity from remote solar plants to areas of high demand. Building transmission lines is a time-consuming and expensive process, with costs ranging from half a million to several million dollars per kilometer.

NIMBY Concerns:
The construction of transmission lines often faces opposition from local communities due to aesthetic and environmental concerns, leading to lengthy approval processes.

The Case of Germany:
Germany’s experience with offshore wind farms highlights the challenges of integrating renewable energy into existing grids. The cost of connecting offshore wind farms to the onshore grid can be as high as the cost of the wind farm itself. The need for backup power generation to cover periods of low renewable energy production adds to the complexity and cost of integrating renewables.

Challenges of Integrating Solar Power:
Germany’s experience with solar power illustrates the challenges of managing intermittent renewable energy sources. During periods of high solar generation, surplus electricity can lead to grid instability, requiring the shutdown of other power sources. The lack of sufficient energy storage options necessitates the maintenance of large backup power reserves to ensure reliable electricity supply during periods of low solar generation.

Energy Density and Decentralized Energy:
Smil argues that decentralized energy sources like solar, wind, and biomass are not viable options for powering megacities due to their low energy density and the vast land area required to generate sufficient energy.

Rational Use of Energy:
Smil emphasizes the need for rational energy use rather than energy conservation, highlighting the inefficiency and irrationality of current energy practices, such as driving large SUVs with low fuel efficiency and excessive use of LEDs.

Food Waste:
Smil draws attention to the alarming rate of food waste in Western countries, particularly in the US, Canada, and the EU, where an average of 40% of food produced is wasted. He emphasizes the energy and resources embedded in food production and the need to reduce waste.

Lifestyle Choices:
Smil criticizes the irrationality of certain lifestyle choices, such as long-distance flights for vacations and exposing Norwegian babies to tropical sun in Thailand, highlighting the environmental consequences and the availability of closer alternatives.

Energy Efficiency in Buildings:
Smil stresses the importance of energy efficiency in buildings, particularly the use of triple windows with gas and reflective coatings, as a means of reducing energy consumption.

Inefficiency in Energy Use:
Vaclav Smil points out the inefficient use of energy in Canada, which could be reduced by a third without compromising living standards. Canada’s energy consumption is threefold higher than other developed countries due to wasteful practices like outdoor lighting left on all night.

Rapid Electric Train Systems:
Smil emphasizes the need for rapid electric trains in Canada, which are more efficient and environmentally friendly than diesel or coal-powered trains. Canada has cheap hydroelectricity and produces excellent trains, yet it lacks rapid electric train networks. This lack of infrastructure is a significant disadvantage, especially considering the efficient train systems in other countries, including China and Japan.

Rational Use of Energy:
Smil advocates for the rational use of energy, which involves optimizing energy consumption instead of relying solely on conservation measures. He highlights the potential for significant energy savings by implementing rational practices, reducing the impact of global warming.

Challenges of Global Warming:
Smil acknowledges the global warming challenge but emphasizes that focusing on rational energy use can mitigate the problem. While Canada’s efforts to reduce emissions are important, the global nature of the issue requires a worldwide commitment to address climate change effectively.

Global Cooperation for Climate Action:
Smil highlights the Montreal Protocol as a successful example of global cooperation to address an environmental issue (CFCs). He emphasizes the need for a similar global commitment to tackle CO2 emissions, which is a more complex challenge due to its widespread sources.

The Global Energy Problem:
Fossil fuels cannot be entirely eliminated because developing countries like India and China will continue to increase their energy consumption. The solution to global energy problems is not primarily technical because technical solutions alone cannot keep CO2 emissions below the critical level of 500 ppm.

Energy Efficiency:
Technical solutions such as improving energy efficiency can save energy, but they are not sufficient to solve the problem on a global scale. Even if all countries used the most efficient energy converters, it would only save about 15-25% of energy, which is insufficient given population growth and increasing consumption.

The Importance of Behavior Change:
The primary solution to the energy problem lies in changing human behavior and consuming less. Convincing people to consume less energy is challenging and requires economic incentives, such as increasing energy prices.

Comparison of Energy Costs:
In developed countries like the US, families typically spend less than 20% of their disposable income on energy, while in many developing countries, families spend 40-60% of their income on energy. In Europe, energy costs are still higher than in the US, with families spending around 20% of their disposable income on energy.

Historical Context:
In Europe after World War II, families spent 50-60% of their disposable income on food, while in China, it was around 50%. Today, food costs have decreased significantly, but energy costs have not.

Conclusion:
To solve the global energy problem, a combination of technical solutions and behavior change is necessary. Governments need to implement policies that encourage energy conservation and reduce energy consumption.

The Cost of Energy and Food:
The current low prices of energy and food in North America are unsustainable. Prices should reflect the actual cost of production in energy terms, including the embodied energy in goods and services. If prices were higher, people would be more careful about wasting energy and food.

The Importance of Food Production:
Food production is the most important form of energy production, more important than electricity or gasoline. The state-of-the-art ecosystem is not very good for food production, and yields have been flattening in recent years. More inputs, such as irrigation and fertilizer, are needed to increase yields, which is not sustainable in the long term.

Hope for the Future:
Synthetic genomics offers hope for solving the food production problem by engineering plants and bacteria to produce food more efficiently. However, this technology is still in its early stages and will take time to develop.

Engineering People:
Once we have the ability to engineer plants and bacteria, we may also start engineering people on a large scale. This could have both positive and negative consequences and should be approached with caution.

Nuclear Energy in France:
France has been successful in transitioning to nuclear energy, which now provides over 70% of the country’s electricity. This transition has helped France to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and improve its energy security.

The Future of Nuclear Energy:
Nuclear energy has the potential to play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. However, there are still concerns about the safety and waste disposal of nuclear energy, which need to be addressed before it can be widely adopted.

The Demise of Nuclear Energy in the West:
Nuclear energy has seen a significant decline in the West, with no new power plants built in the United States in the past 25 years. The existing nuclear plants are aging, and plans to replace them have fallen short. Countries like Japan, which heavily relied on nuclear energy, have scaled back their operations post-Fukushima.

The Rise of Nuclear Energy in Unstable Regions:
Countries like North Korea, South Korea, China, and Iran are actively building nuclear power plants. These regions pose significant safety concerns due to their political instability, dense populations, and lack of proper safety measures. A nuclear accident in these areas could have catastrophic consequences.

The Future of Nuclear Energy:
The current state of nuclear energy is dire, with the West abandoning it and unstable regions taking the lead. The author questions the wisdom of allowing these countries to continue building nuclear plants, given their safety records and political instability. The author emphasizes the need for caution and careful consideration when it comes to the future of nuclear energy.

Nuclear Power: A Successful Failure:
Vaclav Smil views nuclear power as a “successful failure.” It has been successful in providing a significant amount of electricity, more than hydro and new renewables. However, it has been a failure in terms of expansion and development, with many countries abandoning nuclear power.

Challenges of Nuclear Power:
The high cost of building nuclear power plants is a major challenge. The NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) problem, where communities are reluctant to host nuclear waste storage facilities, is another obstacle. The long-term safety and disposal of nuclear waste remain significant concerns.

Nuclear Power’s Future:
Smil believes the future of nuclear power is questionable due to these challenges and the increasing competitiveness of other energy sources. He highlights the example of France, a strong advocate of nuclear power, which is now reducing its reliance on nuclear energy.

Innovation and the Human Race:
Smil questions the role of innovation as the sole solution to global challenges. He emphasizes that often, things we worry about are solved, while things we overlook catch us by surprise.

Hopeful Signs:
Smil finds hope in unexpected historical events, such as the peaceful collapse of the USSR and the avoidance of World War III. He also highlights the abundance of natural resources, including oil and natural gas, and the advancements in engineering that are making extraction more efficient and cost-effective.

Running Out of Resources:
Smil argues that we are not running out of mineral resources as previously feared. He points to the vast reserves of natural gas in the US and Canada, made accessible through fracking and improved engineering techniques.

Conclusion:
Vaclav Smil offers a nuanced perspective on nuclear power, recognizing its successes and challenges. He emphasizes the need to address the issues surrounding nuclear waste and cost to ensure its long-term viability. Smil also cautions against over-reliance on innovation as a solution to global problems and highlights the importance of learning from unexpected historical events.

Water Concerns:
Vaclav Smil expresses serious concerns about water scarcity, particularly in regions like China, India, and parts of Europe. He cites satellite data showing how the North China Plain and Gangetic Plain are sinking due to excessive groundwater extraction. Smil emphasizes the need to address water management and conservation issues to prevent further depletion of water resources.

Economic Worries:
Smil raises concerns about the state of the global economy, particularly the excessive printing of paper money, such as the $1 trillion per year in the US. He criticizes the reliance on quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates, questioning the long-term sustainability of such economic policies. Smil expresses fears that the fundamental economic principles will eventually catch up and lead to challenges in the future.

Social Conditions:
Smil discusses social issues, such as high unemployment rates among young people in the Western world, and the potential for social unrest and instability. He questions the sustainability of current economic and social systems, considering the mounting challenges and inequalities.

California Drought:
Smil highlights the severity of the drought in California, noting that it is the worst in 1,200 years, based on tree ring analysis. He emphasizes the need for more responsible water usage and conservation measures to address the exceptional drought conditions.

Wasting Resources:
Smil criticizes the rampant waste of resources, including food and water, in modern societies. He suggests that in times of toughness, societies can survive with much less by reducing consumption and embracing simpler lifestyles.

Historical Perspective:
Smil provides a historical perspective, recalling the living conditions in the 1960s and 1970s, when energy consumption and resource usage were significantly lower. He argues that societies can pull back to a more sustainable level of resource consumption without compromising quality of life.

Conclusion:
Smil concludes by expressing hope that societies can find a balance between economic growth and resource conservation, recognizing that there is still room to reduce waste and live more efficiently.