Welcome and Introductions: Wade Roush, chief correspondent and San Francisco editor for Xconomy, welcomed attendees to the second annual robotics forum. Curt Carlson, president and CEO of SRI International, gave opening remarks, emphasizing the excitement surrounding robotics and SRI’s contributions to the field.
SRI’s History and Achievements: SRI has a rich history in technology and robotics, creating the first intelligent robot and forming several companies through partnerships. Notable examples include Siri, which was acquired by Apple, and the development of intelligent interfaces for future devices.
Addressing Jobs and Innovation in Robotics: The impact of robotics on jobs and innovation is a pressing concern. SRI hosted a discussion with global leaders to address this topic, with no clear answers yet emerging. The potential for abundance in opportunities and personalized production is highlighted as a key area of interest.
Event Sponsors and Supporters: Xconomy expressed gratitude to SRI International for hosting the event and to Silicon Valley Bank as the event sponsor. Robo-Business Leadership Summit, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, and several other organizations are acknowledged for their support.
Xconomy’s New Initiative: Xconomy launched Experience, a consumer-oriented section of the magazine, to provide insights into technology trends and apps for a broader audience.
Framework for the Event: The event focused on how robotics will transform the economy by expanding beyond manufacturing into human-centered workplaces like offices and hospitals. The aim is to highlight business opportunities for innovators and entrepreneurs in this rapidly evolving field.
High Unemployment and Economic Uncertainty: Unemployment remains high at 8%, despite a decline from its peak of 10% in 2009. The economy is not creating new jobs fast enough to keep up with population growth. Economic indicators such as corporate profits and stock market records contrast with the grim employment situation, raising concerns among economists.
Automation and Displacement of Workers: Scholars like Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have raised concerns about workers losing the race against automation. The debate about the changing nature of work and workers’ inability to keep up is becoming mainstream in economics. Media outlets like 60 Minutes, The Economist, The New York Times, and Wired have highlighted the impact of automation on employment.
Historical Precedents and New Opportunities: Technological advancements have historically outpaced training and education, but new revolutions have also created millions of jobs. The robotics industry has not yet effectively addressed the concerns about automation’s impact on employment. There is a need to highlight the potential for new industries and jobs created through robotics.
Rethinking American Manufacturing: American manufacturing has consistently increased productivity. Rod Brooks, from Rethink Robotics, will discuss how to rethink American manufacturing in the context of automation and changing work dynamics.
00:11:49 Recent Trends in Manufacturing Innovation
Low-Cost Labor and Manufacturing: American manufacturing has pursued low-cost labor, starting in Japan after World War II. Rising living standards in countries like Japan, Korea, and Taiwan led to the movement of manufacturing to new locations with cheaper labor. Eventually, China became the destination for low-cost manufacturing, but labor costs have also increased there.
Manufacturing in the US: The search for low-cost labor has become more challenging, leading to a resurgence of manufacturing in the US. Factors such as advancements in technology, venture capital investments, and innovative individuals have contributed to this trend.
Challenges in Manufacturing: Traditional industrial robots used in manufacturing are often dangerous and require extensive programming. Making manufacturing accessible to ordinary users has not been a priority in the industry.
Baxter the Robot: Rethink Robotics developed Baxter, a robot designed to be easy to use and safe for human interaction. Baxter represents an effort to make manufacturing more accessible and user-friendly.
Easy to Train: Baxter can be trained to perform simple tasks by physically moving its arms and pressing buttons. No complex programming or menu selection is required. The robot infers the task based on the user’s actions.
Safe to be Around: Unlike traditional industrial robots, Baxter is safe to work alongside human workers. It has built-in safety features to prevent accidents.
Vision-Based Object Tracking: Baxter uses cameras in each hand to track objects on a conveyor belt. It can pick up and place objects of different shapes and sizes. It can adapt to changes in the speed and direction of the conveyor belt.
Simple User Interface: The goal is to make Baxter easy to use for ordinary factory workers. Complex engineering tasks are handled by the robot, not the user. The interface is designed to make simple tasks easy to show the robot.
Adapts to Different Hands: Baxter does not have universal hands. Users can customize the fingers or use 3D-printed fingers. The robot uses a camera to recognize its own fingers and adapt its object recognition accordingly.
Real-World Application: Baxter is being used in a plastic factory in Pennsylvania to pack plastic objects into boxes. It is also being used in a plastics factory in Connecticut.
00:24:34 Factory Workers and the Future of Robotic Innovations
Robots Augmenting Factory Workers: Robots are not replacing factory workers in the US but rather augmenting them, enabling them to perform more tasks due to the shortage of replacement workers. The aging population in the US and China means fewer young people are entering the workforce, leading to a decline in the number of factory workers. Robots are making it easier for older workers, like Mildred, to continue working in factories by reducing the need for heavy lifting and repetitive tasks.
Implications of Aging Populations: The aging population in the US, Europe, and China will significantly impact society and the economy. The percentage of adults below retirement age is decreasing, leading to a shortage of workers to provide elder care and other services. Demographics will significantly change society, requiring new inventions and solutions to address the needs of an aging population.
Potential Inventions and Innovations: There is room for inventions beyond robotics, such as advanced 3D printers capable of mixing plastic and metal, high-speed volume 3D printing, and integrating electronics into 3D printed objects. Investing in tooling companies could be a promising opportunity, as tooling is labor-intensive and currently difficult to do in the US.
00:29:53 Manufacturing Infrastructure and Business Models in the Age of Robotics
Tooling: Baxter, the robot, is made in the US, but tooling had to be done in China due to the lack of tooling capabilities in the US. 3D printing could be a potential solution for creating tooling in the US.
CAD Software: Current CAD software lacks the ability to include parametric information, which could improve the portability of designs and their interfaces with robots. CAD software needs to be integrated with manufacturing information to streamline the manufacturing process.
Infrastructure: The manufacturing industry lacks the necessary infrastructure, such as access to tooling and quick scale-up capabilities, compared to other industries like the computer industry. The lack of infrastructure can lead companies to seek manufacturing solutions overseas.
Scale-Up and Supply Chain: Flextronics, a major manufacturing company, faces challenges in quickly scaling up its workforce and managing the dynamic supply chain required for high-volume manufacturing in the US.
New Business Models: As technology advances in robotics, supply chain management, 3D printing, and CAD software, new business models will emerge in the manufacturing industry. The IT industry has experienced continuous changes in business models, and similar changes can be expected in manufacturing. An example of a new business model in manufacturing could involve companies designing products, outsourcing manufacturing to specialized factories, and focusing on marketing and customer service.
00:34:21 New Business Models and Ecosystem for Innovation
New Business Models: Current business models involve sending designs to factories in China for production and shipping to the US. Future business models could involve selling designs directly to retailers who then distribute them to local factories for production and distribution to consumers, shortening the supply chain. Robotic tools that can be trained by ordinary people will drive changes in business models, leading to a dynamic and evolving landscape.
Supply Chain Optimization: New tools and technologies will create opportunities for companies to optimize their supply chains. Supply chain optimization companies, big data companies, and other players will emerge to address these opportunities.
Ecosystem of Players: Just as the IT space involved a combination of players, the robotics industry will also require collaboration and cooperation among various stakeholders. This ecosystem includes robotics companies, retailers, factories, and consumers.
Maker Movement and Innovation: The maker movement, characterized by individuals building and creating, is gaining traction. The maker movement and the involvement of individuals from different backgrounds can foster innovation and creativity. This trend resembles the early days of the IT industry, where amateurs and professionals worked together to drive progress.
Balancing Innovation and Practicality: While innovation is essential, it is important to strike a balance with practicality and feasibility. Some ideas may be overly ambitious or unrealistic, requiring a combination of creativity and pragmatism to achieve success.
Opportunities and Potential: The robotics industry presents numerous opportunities for building new technologies and products. The United States has the potential to play a leading role in this domain. By leveraging collaboration, creativity, and a diverse ecosystem of players, the US can drive innovation and economic growth in the robotics sector.
Abstract
The Future of Manufacturing: Robotics, Innovation, and Economic Shifts
Introduction: A Transformative Era for Robotics and Manufacturing
The Robotics Forum, hosted by SRI International, marks a pivotal moment in understanding the transformative role of robotics in modern manufacturing and the global economy. Curt Carlson, President and CEO of SRI International, opened the forum by emphasizing robotics’ growing significance, its potential impact on jobs, and innovation. The event, sponsored by Silicon Valley Bank and supported by various partners, provided a comprehensive platform for discussing the industry’s future.
SRI International’s Pioneering Role and the Rise of Intelligent Robotics
Carlson proudly reflected on SRI’s contributions to technology and robotics, notably the development of the first intelligent robot and the significant acquisition of Siri by Steve Jobs, highlighting its potential as an interface for intelligent devices. This legacy underscores the profound changes robotics is poised to bring to the technological landscape.
Event’s Framework: Robotics Transforming the Economy
Wade Roush, Xconomy’s Chief Correspondent, framed the event’s focus on robotics’ role in transforming the economy, extending its reach beyond traditional manufacturing to various workplace environments. This sets the stage for exploring robotics’ potential impact on business opportunities and job creation.
Economic Implications: Automation, Robotics, and the Workforce
Unemployment remains high at 8%, despite a decline from its peak of 10% in 2009. The economy is not creating new jobs fast enough to keep up with population growth. Economic indicators such as corporate profits and stock market records contrast with the grim employment situation, raising concerns among economists. Scholars like Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have raised concerns about workers losing the race against automation. The debate about the changing nature of work and workers’ inability to keep up is becoming mainstream in economics. Media outlets like 60 Minutes, The Economist, The New York Times, and Wired have highlighted the impact of automation on employment.
Despite economic recovery signs, high unemployment rates and technological advancements in automation and robotics have sparked intense debates. Scholars and media outlets are raising concerns about potential job displacement and the changing nature of work. However, historical technological revolutions have often led to new businesses and job creation, suggesting a more nuanced impact of robotics on the economy.
Rethink Robotics: Revolutionizing American Manufacturing
Rod Brooks, CEO of Rethink Robotics, advocates for rethinking American manufacturing. He points to the potential of robotics and automation in enhancing productivity and efficiency, which could lead to new job opportunities. Central to this vision is Baxter, Rethink Robotics’ innovative creation, designed to be user-friendly and safe for collaboration with human workers. Baxter’s intuitive operation and adaptability represent a significant shift from traditional industrial robots, making manufacturing more accessible and efficient.
Baxter the Robot: A New Generation of Industrial Robots
Baxter, Rethink Robotics’ groundbreaking creation, revolutionizes industrial robotics with its user-friendly design and collaborative capabilities. Unlike traditional industrial robots, Baxter is easy to train, safe to be around, and features vision-based object tracking. Its simple user interface allows ordinary factory workers to operate it, making complex engineering tasks accessible. Baxter’s adaptability extends to its hands; users can customize or 3D-print fingers, and the robot recognizes and adapts its object recognition accordingly. Baxter is already being utilized in plastic factories, packing objects into boxes.
Addressing the Aging Workforce and Expanding Factory Capabilities
The rapidly aging population in developed countries presents challenges for maintaining a productive economy and elder care. Robotics, like Baxter, can assist aging workers in factories, enabling them to be more productive and extending their work capabilities. This technological aid could be crucial in filling the gap created by the shortage of young workers entering factory jobs.
Robots: Empowering Ordinary Factory Workers and Implications of Aging Populations
Robots are revolutionizing the workplace, augmenting the capabilities of factory workers in the US and addressing the shortage of replacement workers due to the aging population. In addition to empowering older workers to continue working, robotics has broader implications for aging populations. The decreasing percentage of adults below retirement age raises concerns about providing elder care and other services. This demographic shift necessitates new inventions and solutions to meet the needs of an aging society. Beyond robotics, there is potential for innovations like advanced 3D printers capable of mixing plastic and metal, high-speed volume 3D printing, and integration of electronics into 3D printed objects. Investing in tooling companies, which are labor-intensive and challenging to operate in the US, could also yield promising opportunities.
3D Printing: The Next Frontier in Manufacturing
3D printing holds immense promise for revolutionizing manufacturing, despite its current limitations. Innovations in this field could include high-speed volume printing, integration of electronics, and the ability to create complex tooling. This area is particularly significant given the labor-intensive nature of manufacturing tooling, presenting a substantial opportunity for technological advancement.
Challenges and Opportunities in American Manufacturing
American manufacturing has historically pursued low-cost labor, leading to the movement of manufacturing overseas. However, rising labor costs and the search for low-cost labor have become more challenging, prompting a resurgence of manufacturing in the US. Factors such as technological advancements, venture capital investments, and innovative individuals have contributed to this trend. Traditional industrial robots used in manufacturing are often dangerous and require extensive programming, making them inaccessible to ordinary users.
Summary of a Discussion on Manufacturing Technology and Future Business Models
A discussion on manufacturing technology and future business models highlighted key issues and potential solutions. Baxter, the robot, is made in the US, but tooling had to be done in China due to the lack of tooling capabilities in the US. 3D printing could be a potential solution for creating tooling in the US. Current CAD software lacks parametric information, affecting the portability of designs and their interfaces with robots. The manufacturing industry lacks the necessary infrastructure and quick scale-up capabilities compared to other industries, leading companies to seek manufacturing solutions overseas. Flextronics, a major manufacturing company, faces challenges in quickly scaling up its workforce and managing the dynamic supply chain required for high-volume manufacturing in the US. As technology advances in robotics, supply chain management, 3D printing, and CAD software, new business models will emerge in the manufacturing industry.
Shifting Business Models and the Role of New Technologies
The convergence of technologies like robotics, 3D printing, and advanced CAD systems is leading to innovative business models, similar to the continuous evolution witnessed in the IT industry. This shift allows for more customization, small-batch production, and rapid prototyping, enabling products to be designed and produced closer to the point of sale, potentially reducing costs and shortening supply chains.
Supplemental Updates: Future Business Models and Ecosystem for Robotics
New Business Models:
– Current business models involve sending designs to factories in China for production and shipping to the US.
– Future business models could involve selling designs directly to retailers who then distribute them to local factories for production and distribution to consumers, shortening the supply chain.
– Robotic tools that can be trained by ordinary people will drive changes in business models, leading to a dynamic and evolving landscape.
Supply Chain Optimization:
– New tools and technologies will create opportunities for companies to optimize their supply chains.
– Supply chain optimization companies, big data companies, and other players will emerge to address these opportunities.
Ecosystem of Players:
– Just as the IT space involved a combination of players, the robotics industry will also require collaboration and cooperation among various stakeholders.
– This ecosystem includes robotics companies, retailers, factories, and consumers.
Maker Movement and Innovation:
– The maker movement, characterized by individuals building and creating, is gaining traction.
– The maker movement and the involvement of individuals from different backgrounds can foster innovation and creativity.
– This trend resembles the early days of the IT industry, where amateurs and professionals worked together to drive progress.
Balancing Innovation and Practicality:
– While innovation is essential, it is important to strike a balance with practicality and feasibility.
– Some ideas may be overly ambitious or unrealistic, requiring a combination of creativity and pragmatism to achieve success.
Opportunities and Potential:
– The robotics industry presents numerous opportunities for building new technologies and products.
– The United States has the potential to play a leading role in this domain.
– By leveraging collaboration, creativity, and a diverse ecosystem of players, the US can drive innovation and economic growth in the robotics sector.
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