Overview:
The Royal Society for Asian Affairs (RSAA) hosted a lecture by Prince Turki al-Faisal, who discussed Afghanistan’s significance and the events leading up to the Taliban’s previous seizure of power. The lecture was organized in collaboration with the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies and Arabian Publishing.

Speakers:
Speaker 04 welcomed the audience and introduced Prince Turki al-Faisal as the guest speaker. He acknowledged the presence of distinguished guests, including former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and former UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.

Lord Curzon’s Remark:
In 1906, Lord Curzon, the RSAA’s founding president, predicted that Afghanistan would remain a vital and important issue for the society in the future. This prediction proved accurate, as Afghanistan has been the subject of numerous discussions at the RSAA over the past 100 years.

Relevance of the Lecture:
The lecture was particularly timely given the recent developments in Afghanistan, including the Taliban’s seizure of power. Prince Turki al-Faisal’s expertise on the region and the period leading up to the Taliban’s previous seizure of power made him a well-suited speaker for the occasion.

Hugh Leach’s Memory:
The lecture was held in memory of Hugh Leach, a British soldier, diplomat, and author who served in the Middle East and Central Asia for over 25 years. Leach was devoted to the RSAA and left a legacy that will help ensure its continued success. A book of memories about Hugh Leach will be published later in the year by Arabian Publishing.

Invitation to Prince Turki al-Faisal:
Speaker 04 formally invited Prince Turki al-Faisal to the stage to deliver his lecture.

Book Launch Speech:
Prince Turki al-Faisal expresses gratitude to the Royal Society for Asian Affairs and co-author Michael Field for their contributions to the book. He remembers Juleech, who shared views with his late uncle, Kamal Adham, and acknowledges the benefits he gained from their experiences.

Saudi Arabia’s History and Development:
Saudi Arabia has a long history with people migrating due to its arid climate but has seen a reversal of this trend, becoming a destination for people from around the world seeking opportunities. The population has grown significantly since Prince Turki’s birth in 1945, from 3.04 million to over 35 million, with 11 million non-Saudis. He emphasizes the role of stability, security, and wise investment of oil revenue in the Kingdom’s development.

Saudi Arabia’s Constitutional and Social Progress:
The country has progressed constitutionally, with the Basic Law revised in 1993 to define the authorities and separate the king, Majlis-i-Shura, and judiciary. The Succession Council was added by King Abdullah, ensuring a clear line of succession. Women’s rights have expanded, including the right to vote, stand for elections, be guardians of themselves, and hold positions in government and diplomatic roles. Women now outnumber men as university graduates and work in various fields without salary prejudice.

Vision 2030 and Economic Transformation:
Vision 2030 aims to reduce dependence on oil, engage the population as a main resource, and diversify the economy. Government departments and ministers are held accountable through KPIs and public reporting during the budget year. Tourism has been opened up, with online visas available.

Crown Prince Mohammed’s Interpretation of Sharia Law:
The Crown Prince has clarified the interpretation of Sharia law in Saudi courts, adhering to the Quran and the Prophet Muhammad’s sayings. This eliminates outdated practices and allows modern perspectives on human interaction.

Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Goals and Energy Transition:
The Kingdom aims to become a hub for travelers, international corporations, and industries. It seeks to be a global provider of clean energy, including hydrogen, solar, and wind, while also improving fossil fuel extraction through research. Prince Turki highlights the irony of President Biden’s request for more oil production while simultaneously aiming to eliminate fossil fuels.

Saudi Arabia’s Struggles with Terrorism and Regional Conflicts:
Saudi Arabia has faced terrorism from various groups, including Palestinian factions, Al-Qaeda, and Fahish (Daesh). The Kingdom has successfully addressed these threats through a holistic approach involving intelligence, law enforcement, and collaboration with friendly countries. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia supports the legitimate government against the Houthi rebellion backed by Iran, which has led to a civil war. The UN Security Council condemned the rebellion and imposed an embargo on arms supplies to the Houthis, but Iran continues to escalate its support. Saudi Arabia seeks a negotiated peace in Yemen and has proposed a plan backed by the international community, except for Iran and the Houthis. The Houthis, emboldened by their removal from the terrorist list by President Biden, have launched attacks on Marib and civilian targets in the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia also faces regional challenges in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, including Israel’s ongoing aggression against the Palestinian people.

Introduction:
Prince Turki al-Faisal highlights the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, emphasizing the importance of implementing UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, which call for “land for peace.” He criticizes Israeli intransigence and America’s support for it, pointing out that the Arab Peace Initiative remains unimplemented.

Regional Conflicts:
Prince Turki al-Faisal discusses the turmoil in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, attributing it to Iranian influence and the presence of Iranian-backed militias. He emphasizes the role of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad and Shia militias in Syria, and the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq. He criticizes Iran’s extraterritorial ambitions and its support for terrorism.

Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Efforts:
The Prince highlights Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic efforts in the region, such as mediating between Ethiopia and Eritrea and promoting peace between Djibouti and Somalia. He also mentions the challenges posed by illegal migration and smuggling from neighboring countries.

Iran’s Hegemonic Ambitions:
Prince Turki al-Faisal discusses Iran’s hegemonic aspirations, emphasizing the persecution and oppression faced by Arab, Kurdish, Belushi, and other minorities within Iran. He criticizes the Iranian regime’s response to popular dissent and its support for terrorism.

Afghanistan and Historical Ties:
The Prince emphasizes Saudi Arabia’s historical ties with Afghanistan, recalling the recognition of the Kingdom of Hejaz and the Sultanate of Naguib by Afghanistan in 1925. He mentions visits by Afghan leaders to Saudi Arabia and the concern felt by the Saudi leadership when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979.

Taliban Leadership and Social Policies:
In response to a question, Prince Turki al-Faisal expresses concern that the Taliban leadership may find itself too far ahead of some of its own leading members, particularly in terms of social policies. He acknowledges that the Taliban has expanded and diversified over the years, but warns against assuming that they have changed significantly.

Origins and Ideology of the Taliban:
The Taliban’s ideology is rooted in the Deobandi school of Hanafi sect in Sunni Islam, which emphasizes strict adherence to Islamic rules and Sharia. Deobandi school originated in India during the British Raj as a response to British colonialism. The Taliban’s interpretation of Islam is strict and includes restrictions on women, Sufi practices, and reverence for graves and saints.

Differences between Wahhabi and Deobandi Schools:
The Deobandi school emphasizes pan-Islamic identity and adherence to a top imam, while the Wahhabi school allows local leaders to be given authority without pan-Islamic interpretation. The Taliban’s adherence to the Deobandi school is often mistakenly associated with Wahhabi influence, which is not the case.

Recent Developments and Inconsistencies:
The Taliban’s public statements have included promises of an inclusive government, women’s education, and work opportunities. However, reports from outside Kabul suggest a different implementation, resembling the previous Taliban government’s strict Sharia regulations.

International Response and Recommendations:
The international community should hold the Taliban accountable for their public statements and not engage with them until they demonstrate concrete implementation of these promises. Key countries with influence on the Taliban, including Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China, should pressure the Taliban to fulfill their commitments. Humanitarian assistance should continue and be expanded by the world community to support the Afghan people.

Saudi Arabia’s Broken Relationship with the Taliban:
Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic ties with the Taliban due to its relationship with Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden, who was responsible for many terrorist activities in the Kingdom.

Prince Turki’s Negotiations with Mullah Omar:
Prince Turki was sent to Afghanistan in 1998 to convince Mullah Omar to hand over Bin Laden to Saudi Arabia. Initial discussions led to an agreement to set up a joint committee to explore how Bin Laden could be handed over in accordance with Islamic principles.

Taliban’s Failure to Honor Assurances:
Despite the agreement, the Taliban did not follow through, and Bin Laden continued his terrorist activities. The embassy attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam by Al-Qaeda prompted missile attacks by President Clinton on Kandahar. Mullah Omar denied making any promises to hand over Bin Laden or set up a committee, instead blaming Saudi Arabia and advocating for fighting the United States.

Saudi Arabia’s Renewed Break with the Taliban:
Prince Turki, upon his return, advised the Saudi leadership to break ties with the Taliban, which was carried out. The link between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda persisted, and a later mediation effort by Saudi Arabia failed due to the Taliban’s refusal to sever ties with Bin Laden.

Engagement with the Taliban for Inclusive Governance:
The international community should engage with the Taliban to ensure they implement their promises of inclusive government and women’s rights.

Western Allies’ Loss of Trust and Moral High Ground:
The chaotic and poorly executed evacuation from Afghanistan has eroded trust and support among Western allies. The West needs to regain moral standing by demonstrating commitment to its values and supporting the Afghan people.

Addressing Afghanistan’s Failed State Status:
The international community must prevent Afghanistan from becoming a failed state and support the departure of Afghan intellectuals who need to leave. Waiting for the situation to deteriorate further could have severe consequences.

Dealing with the Kabul Evacuation:
Prince Turki al-Faisal refrained from offering direct advice to governments regarding the chaotic evacuation from Kabul. He emphasized the need for self-assessment and improvement within the United States and its allies to prevent similar situations.

Taliban’s Commitment to Global Community:
Prince al-Faisal stressed the importance of actions over words when evaluating the Taliban’s intentions to become part of the global community. He acknowledged reports of some successful evacuation flights but expressed uncertainty about their continuity.

Saudi Arabia’s Future Outlook:
The focus shifted to a question regarding Saudi Arabia’s potential transformation by 2030 or 2040. Prince al-Faisal was asked to envision how the Kingdom and the broader region might differ from their current state.

United Nations Reform:
Prince Turki al-Faisal believes the United Nations needs to be reformed to better implement its Security Council resolutions. He proposes that any resolution passed by the Security Council should not be subject to veto power when it comes to implementation. This would prevent high principles and ideals expressed in resolutions from being undermined by individual countries’ veto power.

Afghanistan Withdrawal:
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan has led to speculation about a new era of transactional multilateralism in global politics. Some believe the Gulf region will hedge their bets in response to the U.S. withdrawal, assuming it signals a diminished American role as an offshore guarantor of regional stability.

Abraham Accords:
The recent photograph of the Crown Prince with Sheikh Tamim and Sheikh Tahnoon from the Emirates has been seen as a sign of increasing cooperation and solidarity in the region. Some see this as a response to the perceived U.S. withdrawal from the region and an attempt to create a more independent regional order.

Changing US Foreign Policy:
Prince Turki al-Faisal discusses the changes in US foreign policy under former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, with a focus on their differing approaches to international alliances and burden-sharing. Trump’s “America First” policy and criticism of allies for not contributing enough to their own defense led to concerns among Gulf states like Saudi Arabia. Biden’s commitment to multilateralism and support for Saudi Arabia’s defense against foreign aggression is seen as positive, but the withdrawal of Patriot missiles from the country raises questions about the strength of that commitment.

Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Efforts:
Saudi Arabia is engaging with traditional allies like the US, UK, Europe, and new partners such as Russia, China, India, and others to strengthen its position in the changing world order. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is another important platform for Saudi Arabia to engage with the Islamic world. The kingdom’s foreign minister has undertaken extensive travel in recent months to build relationships and seek support from various countries.

Seeking International Support:
Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic efforts aim to ensure that it has friends and allies who will support it in times of crisis. The kingdom values the United States’ commitment to its defense but is concerned about the withdrawal of Patriot missiles amidst ongoing attacks from Yemen and Iran. Saudi citizens and officials seek greater reassurance from the US regarding its commitment to defending the kingdom against foreign aggression.

Forever Wars and the Changing Context:
The speaker raises the question of whether President Biden’s declaration that a “forever war” can end through unilateral action is realistic, given the ongoing struggle between those seeking open societies and those seeking to close them down. In this new context, the speaker suggests that there are “right wars” and “wrong wars,” citing the liberation of Kuwait as an example of a just war that united the world against territorial aggression.

Prince Turki’s Views on the Gulf War:
The Gulf War was a “right war” with a clear objective: to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi forces. The international coalition successfully achieved this goal but did not pursue further military action.

The War on Terror:
The war on terror is a forever war due to the persistence of terrorism throughout history. The United States diverted its focus from capturing Osama bin Laden to invading Iraq, missing an opportunity to end the war.

Missed Opportunities to End the War on Terror:
The United States had the chance to end the war after eliminating Osama bin Laden. The coalition should have worked with Afghanistan to reduce its military presence following bin Laden’s death.

Current Situation in Afghanistan:
The Taliban remain in power and are allied with Al-Qaeda. The presence of ISIS in Afghanistan is a concern. The world community is uncertain how the Taliban will deal with these challenges.

Ethnic Composition of Taliban:
The Taliban is predominantly composed of Pashtuns, comprising approximately 95% of its members. Pashtuns make up around 40-43% of Afghanistan’s population. Other ethnic groups, such as Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras, are significantly underrepresented within the Taliban.

Challenges for Taliban-led Government:
The Taliban’s ethnic composition raises concerns about its ability to represent and govern a diverse country like Afghanistan. The lack of inclusion of other ethnic groups could lead to instability and resistance within the country. The Taliban must demonstrate a commitment to addressing the interests of all ethnic groups and not just the Pashtuns.

Historical and Cultural Diversity of Afghanistan:
Afghanistan has a complex ethnic and cultural composition with numerous ethnic groups, including ancient Greek-speaking communities. The diversity of Afghanistan requires a collective approach to governance that considers the interests of all ethnic groups.

Call for Inclusivity:
The Taliban must show sincerity in including various ethnic minorities in its government and policies. This inclusivity should extend to all regions and communities across Afghanistan. Recognizing and treating all citizens as fellow citizens, regardless of ethnicity, is crucial for stability.

Afghan Unity:
Despite the civil war’s bitterness, Afghans generally reject secession and emphasize their shared national identity. This unity is a source of strength and resilience for Afghanistan.

China’s Changing Role:
A question was raised regarding the impact of China’s changing role on the Taliban. This question will be addressed in subsequent discussions.

China’s Involvement in Afghanistan:
China provided assistance to the Mujahideen during the Jihad against the Soviet Union, despite its strained relationship with the Soviets at the time. Since the establishment of the government under President Karzai, China has been developing relations within Afghanistan and maintaining links with the Taliban, both during their opposition to the government and afterward. A Taliban delegation visited Beijing to meet with Chinese officials, indicating China’s intention to expand its influence in Afghanistan. China is interested in mining precious metals in Afghanistan and had an agreement with the previous government to do so, but it is on hold until the Taliban’s stance on the matter becomes clear.

Palestine and the Two-State Solution:
The Palestinian Ambassador to the UK, Hossam Zumlod, praised Prince Turki al-Faisal’s eloquence and support for Arab issues, particularly his insightful analysis of the Israel-Palestine conflict. The current situation in Palestine is challenging, with an intransigent Israeli government and unprecedented steps that threaten the two-state solution. The Biden administration supports the two-state solution but does not believe the conditions are currently suitable. Prince Turki al-Faisal was asked for his advice on how to proceed with the Palestinian file, given the boiling situation on the ground and the possibility of another confrontation. The Arab Peace Initiative, in which Prince Turki al-Faisal participated, has been ignored, adding to the complexity of the situation.

Two-State Solution:
Prince Turki al-Faisal emphasizes the importance of overcoming the rift between Hamas and Fatah, as it hinders the viability of the two-state solution. He believes that Israel’s refusal to engage in negotiations is partly due to this division. He does not expect the Biden administration to exert significant pressure on Israel to reach an accommodation with the Palestinians.

Biden’s Commitment to the Two-State Solution:
Biden has publicly stated his commitment to the two-state solution, but al-Faisal believes Biden is unlikely to expend political capital to bring about an agreement.

Role of Egypt in Bridging the Rift:
Egypt has been actively trying to mediate and resolve the rift between Hamas and Fatah, but their efforts have not yet been successful.

Recruitment and Prevention of Terrorism:
When asked about international efforts to curb recruitment for the Taliban, al-Faisal expresses uncertainty about the effectiveness of such measures. He notes that the Taliban’s ability to expand their support beyond the Pashtun may pose challenges to their long-term stability.

The Seesaw of Diplomacy:
Al-Faisal views diplomacy as a fluctuating endeavor, sometimes effective and at other times failing to achieve its intended goals. He cites a quote by historian Will Durant, who described history as “one damn thing after another,” to illustrate the unpredictable nature of diplomatic efforts.

Recent Events and the Decline of Diplomacy:
Al-Faisal’s response to a question about the perceived decline in the art of diplomacy is guarded and cautious. He acknowledges that diplomacy experiences periods of both success and failure.

Diplomacy:
Prince Turki al-Faisal believes that President Biden is committed to bringing back diplomacy. He notes that Biden’s withdrawal from Kabul was not very diplomatic. However, diplomacy has had some successes, such as ending the rift between Qatar and the GCC and resolving conflicts between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as Eritrea and Djibouti.

The Definition of a Diplomat:
Prince Turki al-Faisal’s late brother, who was his mentor in foreign affairs, gave him a definition of a diplomat: A diplomat is someone who says “yes” or “no” when they mean “maybe.” They say “maybe” when they mean “no.”

Conclusion:
Prince Turki al-Faisal is not sure whether present-day diplomats follow this definition.

Author’s Satisfaction with Current Book:
The author, having written six books, expresses contentment with his latest work, facing no doubts or reservations upon its completion. Unlike previous books, he feels confident in the completeness and honesty of the information presented in this one.

Candid Conversations with Prince Turki:
The author had open and honest conversations with Prince Turki, receiving direct and satisfactory answers to all his questions. He emphasizes that he did not avoid sensitive topics or questions that might embarrass Prince Turki.

Saudi Arabia’s Stance on the Taliban:
The author refutes the claim that Saudi Arabia supported the Taliban, highlighting its status quo nature and aversion to revolutionary movements. He argues that Saudi Arabia would not naturally support a movement like the Taliban and would likely have provided support through Pakistan if it had chosen to.

Questioning the Alleged Saudi Support for the Taliban:
The author challenges a statement in a well-known book that Saudi Arabia supplied trucks to the Taliban through Dubai. He finds it implausible based on Saudi Arabia’s political stance and suggests the possibility of private sector involvement.

Media’s Tendency to Blame Saudi Arabia:
The author criticizes the media’s tendency to attribute unexplained negative events to Saudi Arabia. He attributes this to Saudi Arabia’s lack of articulate spokespeople willing to publicly address such accusations.

Speaker 07’s Recommendation:
Speaker 07 wholeheartedly recommends Michael Field’s book on Saudi Arabia, finding it accurate and honest. He credits his conversations in Princess Turkey for the book’s authenticity.

Technical Difficulties:
The online audience experienced sound issues towards the end of the event. A recording of the event will be available on the Royal Society for Asian Affairs’ YouTube channel for those who missed certain comments.

Appreciation for the Speaker:
The Royal Society for Asian Affairs expressed gratitude to His Royal Highness for his valuable contributions.

Gifts of Appreciation:
Professor Peter Frankopan presented a signed copy of his book, On the Silk Roads, to His Royal Highness. The Royal Society for Asian Affairs presented a reproduction of an original drawing depicting the bestowal of the Grand Cross of the Bath from George V to Ibn Saud in 1935.

Gift from the King Faisal Center:
His Royal Highness, Prince Turki al-Faisal, presented a reproduction of a manuscript from the King Faisal Center to the Asia Society.

Family Members in the Audience:
His Royal Highness mentioned that two generations of his family, including his daughter and grandchildren, are studying in England.

Appreciation for the Event:
His Royal Highness expressed gratitude to the UK for hosting them and to the Royal Society for Asian Affairs for the wonderful hosting. He also thanked the audience for their presence and attentiveness.