Prince Turki Al Faisal’s Observations:
The ongoing U.S. presidential election has captured global attention, with the result yet to be determined. The election process in the United States is viewed as an impressive display of people power. The candidates, both Biden and Trump, have backgrounds relevant to the Middle East. Biden has extensive experience in the region as a senator and vice president. Trump, as a businessman and president, has interacted with the Middle East and made Saudi Arabia his first international destination.

Biden’s Potential Approach:
Biden would need to address recent developments in the Middle East, including Iran’s involvement. The focus would likely be on diplomacy and multilateralism, potentially leading to a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) revival. The U.S. commitment to the Middle East may be strengthened through deeper engagement with regional partners.

Trump’s Potential Approach:
Trump’s Middle East policy has been characterized by “America First” and a preference for bilateral agreements. His administration initiated the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab countries. If re-elected, Trump may continue his transactional approach to regional issues.

General Petraeus’ Assessment:
The U.S. presidential election outcome will have significant implications for the Middle East. Both candidates have expressed a desire to maintain the U.S. presence in the region. The Middle East remains a vital area for U.S. interests, including energy security, counterterrorism, and stability.

Kevin Rudd’s Commentary:
The Middle East is undergoing a “strategic realignment,” including the rise of China and Russia’s influence. The U.S. needs to adopt a “strategic reset” approach to its role in the region. This involves maintaining military capabilities while also engaging diplomatically with regional powers.

Middle East Issues:
The situation in Iraq remains precarious despite a new prime minister’s efforts to address challenges. Syria and Yemen continue to face instability and civil conflicts, with Saudi Arabia being a victim of missiles launched from Yemen by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Lebanon’s situation is also a work in progress.

COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia has implemented strict measures to combat the coronavirus since February or March. The country has seen a decline in the number of cases, arrests, and active cases due to strict regulations on mask-wearing, social distancing, and travel restrictions. The kingdom is gradually opening up, and foreign pilgrims have recently been allowed to enter the holy city of Mecca under strict regulations.

Geopolitical Players:
Three key players shape the future: the United States, China, and groupings of third parties responding to power shifts.

American Political Stability:
Despite the 2020 presidential election turmoil and Trump’s claims of voter fraud, the American democracy has historically demonstrated resilience and self-correction. The US political system acts as a self-rectifying stabilizer, ultimately achieving equilibrium.

US Economic Strength:
Rumors of America’s economic demise are exaggerated. The US economy has shown a remarkable capacity for reinvention and rebuilding. The stability of political institutions, economic robustness, and continued technological innovation ensure the US will remain a significant player.

China’s Recovery:
Despite the COVID-19 outbreak, China’s economy has begun to recover in the second and third quarters. However, economic growth remains state-driven, presenting potential fragilities.

China’s Perception of US Weaknesses:
China may overestimate the perceived weaknesses in the American political and economic systems due to the current political challenges in the US. This misperception could lead to unintended consequences and challenges in maintaining strategic stability.

Geopolitical Uncertainty:
The world is currently in a state of strategic pause, waiting to see the outcome of the US political process and the robustness of its economic recovery. The global response to the new American president will determine whether America remains globally engaged. The rest of the world is hedging its bets, with Southeast Asia as a classic example.

Great Power Rivalry:
In an era of renewed great power rivalries, the future will largely be authored by those powers. The US and China are the biggest competitors but also each other’s largest trading partners. China’s remarkable V-shaped recovery contrasts with the US’s still-unresolved election.

Middle East Dynamics:
Both Biden and Trump have strong relationships in the Middle East, and the landscape would not change dramatically if Biden returned to the White House. The Abraham Accords, recognizing Israel by the UAE and Bahrain, are a significant achievement, preventing West Bank annexation. The big difference globally, however, is the coronavirus pandemic and its fallout.

Regional Challenges:
Iran continues its quest for hegemony over the Shia Crescent, from Iran through Iraq and Syria to southern Lebanon. Iraq’s impressive prime minister faces challenges in providing basic services and curbing Iranian influence. The situation in Lebanon and Syria, with Iran-backed militias, is a concern.

Hopes for Iraq’s Progress:
Despite the difficulties, Iraq has an impressive leader and a superb cabinet. There is hope that Iraq can address its issues and move forward, benefiting from its two rivers and oil reserves.

Petraeus’s Observations on US and Global Politics:
He agrees with the notion that the future lies in Asia due to significant middle-class growth. There may be divided government in the US, with Republicans holding the Senate and Democrats controlling the House. The outcome of the US presidential election will impact certain parts of the world, especially those where presidents have strong relationships. The COVID-19 pandemic’s resurgence in the US could negatively affect the economy in the fourth quarter. The economic recovery may take a W-shaped or K-shaped trajectory, with some sectors continuing to thrive while others struggle.

Petraeus’s Discussion of the Pandemic’s Impact:
Dealing with the pandemic remains a health crisis, and without addressing it, economic recovery cannot fully occur. There is uncertainty about the shape of the economic recovery, and it may not follow a V-shaped or backward square root pattern. A K-shaped recovery is a possibility, where those already doing well continue to prosper, while those in hard-hit industries suffer disproportionately.

Discussion on the Abrams Accords and Saudi Arabia’s Stance:
Raghida Dergham raises the topic of the Abrams Accords and Saudi Arabia’s potential involvement. Prince Turki Al Faisal clarifies that he speaks only for himself and not on behalf of the Saudi government. He reiterates Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the two-state solution as outlined in the Arab Peace Initiative, initially proposed by King Abdullah in 2002. Prince Turki emphasizes that the Arab Peace Initiative remains the official position of the kingdom and is the only viable solution to the conflict between Israel and Arab states. He acknowledges that both President Trump and a potential President Biden have strong relationships in the Middle East.

Prince Turki’s Concerns About Biden’s Middle East Policy:
Prince Turki Al Faisal expresses concern that Arab quarters, particularly Palestinians, may be overly optimistic about President Biden’s approach to the Middle East. He anticipates that Biden will not significantly deviate from Trump’s policies on Jerusalem, Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords, potentially disappointing those expecting a different approach.

Biden’s Stance on the JCPOA:
Biden has indicated his intention to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, but with additional conditions. The specific conditions are yet unknown, but Biden has mentioned Iranian missile production and malign activities as factors to be addressed. The balancing act between returning to the JCPOA and addressing these concerns remains a significant challenge.

David Petraeus’ Perspective on the Abraham Accords:
Petraeus applauds the Abraham Accords as a positive step for the region and the involved countries. He emphasizes the need for a realistic assessment of the accords, recognizing that they do not address the core issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Potential Differences Between Biden and Trump’s Iran Policies:
Petraeus highlights the differing views between Biden and Trump on the JCPOA and Iran. He acknowledges the difficulty in reconciling Iran’s stance on nuclear activities and malign behavior with the potential conditions Biden may impose for re-entering the agreement.

Chinese Initiatives with Iran:
Petraeus mentions rumored Chinese initiatives with Iran that could potentially provide a way around the current U.S.-imposed sanctions. These initiatives, if realized, could have significant implications for the relationship between Iran and the United States.

China’s Priorities:
China considers the Middle East and Gulf region as a significant priority due to its hydrocarbon dependency. However, it is not China’s top priority, as the country is focused on domestic renewable energy conversion and reducing strategic vulnerability through partnerships with Russia.

China’s Strategy:
China’s strategy in the region is to maintain friendly relations with all countries and avoid conflicts. It seeks to secure its long-term energy security through partnerships with Gulf countries and co-investments with their sovereign investment funds.

China’s Historical Ties with Iran:
China has a long-standing relationship with Iran, with close military and military-to-military links dating back to the early days of the Iranian Revolution. This relationship includes military supplies and collaborations.

China’s Position in a Gulf-Iran Conflict:
In the event of a conflict between Gulf monarchies and Iran, China is likely to remain neutral publicly to avoid direct involvement in security policy conflicts. However, it is possible that China may provide non-public support to Iran due to its historical ties and strategic interests.

China’s Approach to Sanctions:
As China’s global power grows, it is becoming more inclined to disregard American-imposed sanctions that lack UN Security Council authorization. This reflects China’s self-perception of its power and interests, potentially providing a lifeline to Iran and other sanctioned countries.

China’s Growing Influence and Strategic Objectives:
China is actively pursuing economic and political influence in the Middle East through its pact with Iran and by leveraging its economic power to draw countries into its orbit. China aims to establish economic dependencies that lead to foreign policy compliance and alignment with its interests.

US Concerns and Potential Actions:
The US is closely monitoring China’s moves in the region and is determined to prevent China from becoming the dominant competitor. The US is unlikely to sit idly if China operationalizes its pact with Iran and increases its presence in the region. Potential US actions could include imposing sanctions on China or taking military action if China sells arms to Iran.

Iran’s Limited Response to US Actions:
Iran’s actions against countries signing the Abraham Accords have been limited, due to the US’s reestablished deterrence following the strike on Qasem Soleimani. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force is discouraging Shia militia actions against the US and its allies.

Negotiations with Iran:
President Trump has expressed his willingness to negotiate with Iran and has indicated that he expects a call from Iranian leaders if he wins the election. Unlike President Obama, President Trump is expected to be more forthcoming and open about his negotiating objectives.

Potential Challenges for China in Iran:
Iran’s economy is in shambles, and it will require significant investment for China to gain economic benefits. China may face difficulties in urging Iran to reduce its incendiary behavior in the region, which is necessary for stability and productive development.

Russia’s Regional Influence:
Russia’s influence in the region is not discussed in this segment of the presentation.

Lebanon:
Prince Turki Al Faisal and General David Petraeus discuss Hezbollah’s political strength in Lebanon post-explosion and its sponsorship by Iran. Hezbollah is seen as deeply entrenched in Lebanon with significant street power and influence extending from the south to the north. The traumatic events in Lebanon, including the explosion and demonstrations, have not significantly challenged Hezbollah’s influence.

Turkey:
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd highlights the domestic critique of President Erdogan’s overreach in Turkey. Erdogan’s domestic support has significantly declined, and there’s growing concern among Turkish intellectuals, the financial community, and military leaders about his policies. Rudd emphasizes the need to focus on the domestic circumstances in Turkey before analyzing the impact of its actions in various countries.

China:
Rudd discusses the economic recovery in China, but notes that the private sector is yet to fully recover due to lack of confidence in the domestic economic policy settings. He points out tensions within the Chinese leadership, particularly around Xi Jinping’s plan to secure reappointment and potentially remain leader for life. The foreign policy establishment in China is divided between traditional diplomats and the new wolf warrior diplomatic cadre, leading to internal disagreements.

Global Issues:
General Petraeus emphasizes the resurgence of geopolitics and the need to address global challenges collectively. He highlights the global pandemic, economic shutdown, geopolitical struggles, and climate crisis as major issues requiring global cooperation. Petraeus expresses hope that global leaders can recognize these shared problems and come together to resolve them, particularly in the context of the pandemic.

Summit Agenda:
The G20 Summit in November will address pressing issues including climate change, corona (COVID-19), and the global economy. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has played a significant role in providing support and relief during the pandemic.

Debt Relief and Energy Policy:
Saudi Arabia has encouraged the G20 to provide debt relief to poorer countries, demonstrating a commitment to alleviating their economic burden. The Kingdom has also advocated for a circular carbon economy, promoting the utilization of all energy sources, including hydrocarbons.

Upcoming Guests:
Next week’s guests on the show include notable figures such as Prince Hassan bin Talal, President of the Arab Thought Forum, and Boris Rogue, Vice-Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

Other Participants:
Former prime minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd, and General David Petraeus, former CIA director, also contributed to the discussion.

Gratitude and Farewell:
The host, Raghida Dergham, expressed gratitude to the participants for their support and friendship, concluding the session with a heartfelt farewell.