G20’s Role in Stability:
The G20, representing countries with the highest GDP, has been recognized for its role in addressing global crises. It has focused on finding solutions rather than placing blame during the COVID-19 pandemic. The G20 has emphasized prioritizing the health and welfare of humanity.

Saudi Arabia’s Response to COVID-19:
Saudi Arabia implemented stringent measures to stem the impact of COVID-19. The Kingdom took the initiative to host a G20 summit via virtual facilities. Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest percentages of deaths from COVID-19 globally. It provides healthcare services to all residents, including undocumented individuals.

Concerns about US-China Tensions:
Prince Turki Al Faisal expressed concern about escalating tensions between China and the United States. He emphasized the need for unity in efforts to combat the common enemy of COVID-19. Blame and finger-pointing should be avoided during the crisis, and efforts should focus on finding a cure.

Redefining Stability:
Anwar Gargash highlighted the significance of the current global public health crisis. He noted that the world has faced economic crises but not a global health crisis of this magnitude. The world is unprepared for the challenges posed by the pandemic.

Regional Impact of the Crisis:
The COVID-19 crisis has created a multifaceted crisis affecting public health, economy, food security, labor, and energy. The Gulf region faces substantial fiscal problems due to the crisis.

UAE’s Response to the Crisis:
The UAE has adopted a proactive approach to address the crisis without a predefined plan or roadmap. Extensive testing has been a key strategy, with 1.4 million tests conducted out of a population of 9 million. Daily testing identifies asymptomatic individuals, contributing to effective containment.

State Capacity and Efficacy:
The efficacy in dealing with the crisis is determined by state capacity, including institutions, planning, and capabilities. States with strong state capacity have performed better, regardless of ideology.

Shift from Global to National Focus:
During the crisis, there has been a shift from a regional or global mindset to a more national focus. Even within the Gulf region, countries have prioritized national programs over regional cooperation.

Importance of State Efficacy:
State efficacy has played a crucial role in addressing the crisis, while regional and global cooperation have taken a backseat. The myth of collective action has been exposed, with countries prioritizing national interests.

Globalization and the Gulf Frontier State Model:
Anwar Gargash believes that globalization will face questions and challenges in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. He emphasizes the need for Gulf states to find a more sustainable model beyond the frontier state model, which they have been trying to move away from for years.

Labor Reforms in the Gulf:
Gargash acknowledges the issue of expat labor in the Gulf region, particularly blue-collar workers. He suggests that the region may need to consider structural reforms to address unemployment and the dependence on foreign labor. The Gulf countries are major employers of Arab labor worldwide, and changes in labor policies could have significant regional impacts.

US-China Angle and Regional Implications:
Raghida Dergham directs the discussion towards the US-China angle and its potential impact on the Arab region. She asks General David Petraeus to address how the US-China relationship might affect the region and whether it would remain bilateral or have broader implications.

Perceptions of Stability and the Evolving Landscape:
Assessing the redefinition of stability in the wake of the pandemic and identifying key questions to guide future conclusions. Acknowledging the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the pandemic’s long-term effects.

Uncertainty and Potential Titles for the Current Situation:
“Two to Three Years to a New Normal”: Acknowledging the transition to a different normal due to changes in business and consumer behavior. “It Depends”: Emphasizing the reliance on various factors in shaping the eventual outcome. “Less Open, Less Prosperous, and Less Free”: Considering the potential consequences as predicted by an economic expert.

Requirements for Ending the Crisis:
Highlighting the significance of a vaccine or therapeutic treatment in resolving the pandemic. Drawing parallels to HIV and emphasizing the importance of treatment in enabling normal life.

Relaxing Restrictions and Ensuring Public Confidence:
Emphasizing the need for expanded testing and contact tracing to safely relax restrictions. Stressing the necessity of consumer confidence for economic recovery. Proposing a digital credential system to demonstrate COVID-19-free status.

Geopolitical Implications, Particularly the US-China Relationship:
Recognizing the geopolitical implications of the pandemic, especially on the US-China relationship. Advocating for leaders of both countries to set aside differences and collaborate on a global response. Encouraging the involvement of G7 and G20 in spearheading a global solution.

Global Cooperation and Assistance to Vulnerable Regions:
Acknowledging the lagging impact of the pandemic in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia. Highlighting the need for fiscal and monetary support in these regions. Proposing a return to multilateral institutions and international organizations for collective action.

Conclusion:
Emphasizing the need for global cooperation, information sharing, and vaccine discoveries to address the pandemic’s economic and geopolitical challenges.

Russia’s Postponed Crises:
Ongoing crises like Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and potentially Iran have been overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic. Lack of solutions for these crises is a weakness in the foreign policies of all countries, including Russia.

Russia’s Loss of Disarmament Influence:
Russia is losing its favored topic of disarmament as no one is interested in it currently. This makes it difficult for Russia to play a role in bringing peace and stability. The lack of interest in disarmament is a challenge for Russia.

Russia’s Internal Struggles:
Russia’s economy is struggling due to a combination of factors, including the coronavirus pandemic and the low price of oil. The Russian government is dealing with a decline in popularity and public confidence. Corruption and inequality are significant issues within Russia.

Russia’s Foreign Policy Challenges:
Russia’s relations with the United States are strained, and there is little prospect of improvement. Russia is also facing challenges in its relations with the European Union. Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Syria have damaged its reputation and relations with other countries.

Russia’s Future Prospects:
Russia is facing a number of challenges both domestically and internationally. The country’s leadership will need to address these challenges in order to ensure Russia’s stability and prosperity.

Post-Coronavirus Challenges:
Due to economic and health issues, major players like Russia, China, and the United States will have reduced resources and less capacity to resolve existing crises. The post-coronavirus period will not bring stability; instead, it will expose unresolved crises that will require urgent attention without clear solutions.

US-China Rivalry:
Andrei Fedorov predicts that the United States will emerge stronger from the crisis on the international stage, despite potential economic setbacks. The United States is building an anti-Chinese coalition and there is little prospect for finding common ground between the two countries on key issues.

Iran’s Turmoil and Regional Impact:
Raghida Dergham asks Fedorov to elaborate on his prediction of turmoil in Iran within the next month. Fedorov’s contacts in Iran suggest that internal tensions, including economic and political issues, are escalating and could lead to unrest. There is concern that the turmoil could spill over into the Gulf states or lead to a confrontation with the United States.

Iran’s Economic and Political Turmoil:
Iran is experiencing severe economic difficulties and negative public sentiment, leading to a need for an external crisis to divert attention. The most likely target for this crisis is the United States, due to historical tensions and ease of creating conflict. Andrei Fedorov suggests the end of May and beginning of June as a potential period of escalation, urging Gulf countries to be prepared.

Iran’s History of External Blame and Regional Ambitions:
Turki Al Faisal emphasizes Iran’s long-standing practice of blaming external factors for internal issues, particularly the United States and countries like Saudi Arabia. Iran has engaged in destabilizing actions in the region, including the recent attack on Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. Faisal highlights Iran’s extraterritorial ambitions and boasts of controlling Arab capitals, indicating their desire for regional dominance.

Gulf Countries’ Response:
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been dealing with Iran’s destabilizing actions for years. They have sought international support and cooperation to address the Iranian threat, including military assistance from the United States. GCC countries are urged to remain vigilant and prepared for potential Iranian attempts to destabilize the region.

De-escalation and Regional Cooperation:
Anwar Gargash emphasizes the need for de-escalation and cooperation among regional actors. He suggests that the shared experience of the COVID-19 pandemic may create an opportunity for countries to recognize the value of avoiding confrontation. Gargash stresses the importance of long-term thinking and practical solutions to address regional challenges.

De-escalation as a Regional Objective:
Anwar Gargash emphasizes that de-escalation is a realistic goal due to internal challenges faced by all countries. Financial and other issues demand internal focus, leading to a decrease in appetite for external escalation.

Re-examination of Development Policies:
Gargash believes that countries will prioritize internal development policies over ambitious regional order-building. He sees a period of introspection and reevaluation of national priorities.

Iran’s Balancing Act:
Gargash suggests Iran will face internal and external pressures, including internal priorities and U.S.-Saudi actions. He believes that state capacity will be the ultimate winner in the current situation.

Humanitarian Outreach to Iran:
The UAE and Saudi Arabia provided humanitarian support to Iran during various crises, demonstrating a willingness to engage beyond political differences. Gargash downplays the political significance of these gestures, emphasizing the focus on addressing urgent challenges.

Prioritizing Stability in Foreign Policy:
Gargash advocates for caution in foreign policy during this period, emphasizing the need to stabilize and recover from regional and global disruptions. He believes escalation should be avoided, and that stability should guide foreign policy decisions.

Differing Perspectives on Regional Tensions:
Gargash acknowledges differing narratives regarding regional tensions, with Iran blaming the United States and the United States attributing responsibility to Iran’s actions.

Iran’s Provocative Actions:
Iran’s recent actions, including the downing of a U.S. drone, harassment of shipping, and attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, underscore Iran’s long-term objective of Shia Crescent hegemony and regional influence.

Economic and Pandemic Mismanagement in Iran:
Iran’s economy is in free fall due to economic sanctions and mismanagement. The pandemic response has been mishandled, leading to a significant spread of the virus.

Iran’s Reluctance for Direct Confrontation:
Despite its aggressive rhetoric, Iran is unlikely to directly provoke the United States, recognizing the U.S.’s improved defenses and strong presence in the region.

U.S. Election and Potential for Diplomacy:
Meaningful diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely before the November election. Post-election, there may be an opportunity to revisit the Iran nuclear agreement with revised terms.

Lebanon’s Plight and IMF Support:
Lebanon’s economy is on the brink of collapse due to corruption and mismanagement. The country needs a credible proposal to the IMF to secure support.

Iraq’s Challenges and New Prime Minister:
The newly designated Prime Minister in Iraq faces the task of forming a government that can address the country’s challenges, including the pandemic, militia influence, corruption, and the collapse in crude oil prices.

Russia’s Position on Syria:
There is no fundamental change in President Putin’s position towards President Assad. Turkey, Iran, and Russia are not seeking to overthrow Assad but are working together out of necessity to resolve the Syrian conflict.

Sanctions and Dissatisfaction:
Both Russia and Iran attempted to use the coronavirus pandemic to alleviate sanctions, but their efforts were unsuccessful, leading to growing anger in both countries.

Syria’s Headache for Russia:
Public support for Russia’s operation in Syria has dwindled to around 8%, compared to 70% at the start. The preliminary timetable for resolving the Syrian crisis has failed, with no political process or solution in sight. Russia’s strategy has shifted to supporting Bashar Assad in regaining control of the country.

Increased Military Assistance to Assad:
Russia is providing increased military assistance to Assad due to the lack of a political process and the growing Iranian influence in Syria.

Challenging Public Perception:
Russia dismisses public criticism of Assad and maintains its support for him. The absence of a political process leaves military assistance as the best option for Russia.

Iran’s Growing Influence in Syria:
Russia is concerned about Iran’s increasing control on the ground in Syria, which exceeds Russia’s own capabilities. Russia prefers Assad to regain control over the entire country, enabling Russia to maintain its influence and support Assad in managing the political process and elections.

Summary:
The world will face new challenges and resource constraints after the COVID-19 pandemic. Global solutions are necessary to address global crises like pandemics and economic downturns. The United States has spent three times its annual discretionary budget to support those affected by the pandemic, leading to future fiscal pressures. Countries should pool resources and approaches to resolve health and economic crises. The region should focus on de-escalation, problem-solving, and addressing the impact of the pandemic on policies and relations. Russia’s support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria has led to ongoing conflict and instability. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is committed to diversifying its economy and reducing its reliance on oil. The Beirut Institute has proven its worth in hosting valuable discussions and events.