Prince Turki Al Faisal (Saudi Arabia Former Government Official) – Davos 2015 – Iraq and Syria The Strategic Context (Feb 2015)
Chapters
00:00:16 Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Shifts in Iraq and Saudi Arabia Due to Security Emergencies
Iraq’s Current Situation: Iraq is facing a complex security emergency involving various parties, including the coalition, Shiite militias backed by Iran, the Iraqi army, and the Kurdish Peshmerga, all fighting against ISIS. Nearly a third of Iraq remains under ISIS control, highlighting the challenges in coordinating efforts to liberate these areas.
Challenges in the Fight Against ISIS: Dr. Ayad Allawi emphasizes the need for coordination among different parties and reconciliation with the people in ISIS-occupied regions, which is crucial for the long-term success of the liberation battle. The two main approaches to fighting ISIS are military action to reduce their strength and political reconciliation to address underlying issues that contribute to their support.
Lack of Coordination and Political Challenges: The lack of sufficient coordination among various parties involved in the fight against ISIS hampers progress and prolongs the battle. The political process in Iraq has been inadequate, leading to the marginalization of certain sectors in society and fueling resentment that ISIS exploits.
Global Concerns: The British Foreign Secretary’s assessment that it may take a year or two to push ISIS out of Iraq raises concerns about the world’s ability to sustain the ongoing conflict.
00:03:52 ISIS: A Complex Issue Requiring a Multifaceted Solution
Iraq’s Political Context and the Rise of ISIS: Ayad Allawi criticizes the foreign policies of Iran and the United States for supporting Nouri al-Maliki’s oppressive rule in Iraq, leading to sectarian tensions and marginalization of Sunnis.
ISIS as a Symptom of Deeper Issues: Allawi argues that the emergence of ISIS is rooted in the oppressive policies of al-Maliki and Bashar al-Assad in Iraq and Syria, respectively.
Addressing the Root Causes: To effectively combat ISIS, Allawi emphasizes the need to address the underlying problems in Iraq and Syria, including sectarianism and the marginalization of certain groups.
The Role of International Community: Allawi highlights the importance of holding the Iraqi government accountable for its actions and calls for international support in ensuring accountability.
Limitations of Air Raids and the Need for Multi-Pronged Approach: John Baird emphasizes the need for a multi-pronged approach to combat ISIS, including capacity-building for local forces, inclusive governance, tackling sectarianism, and cutting off funding and foreign fighter recruitment.
The Challenge of Engaging Sunnis: Baird acknowledges the need to address the grievances of Sunni communities in Iraq, recognizing the importance of fostering a sense of attachment to the state.
International Support for Peshmerga: Baird clarifies that there are Canadian trainers and ammunition support for the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, while acknowledging that more can be done.
Intelligence Sharing: Rowsch N. Shaways emphasizes the significance of intelligence pooling and sharing to effectively combat Daesh.
00:14:48 Complexities of Combating ISIS in Iraq: A Regional Perspective
Weaknesses and Strengths of ISIS: ISIS is spreading beyond Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen. The fight in Iraq is crucial to defeating ISIS, but international help has been insufficient. Engaging the Sunni tribes is essential for gaining support and fighting ISIS effectively. The militias backed by Iran are committing atrocities against Sunnis, alienating them further.
Factors Contributing to ISIS’s Rise: Dismantlement of the state, army, police, and intelligence in Iraq rendered the country incapable of combating extremism. De-Baathification and sectarianism fueled regional powers’ intervention in Iraq. Iran has significant influence in Iraq, supporting militias and controlling the political environment. The army lost its national character and lacked motivation to fight due to political interference.
Challenges in Defeating ISIS: Lack of a unified coalition against ISIS, with different groups operating in Iraq and Syria. European reluctance to bomb ISIS in Syria, despite their involvement in the coalition in Iraq. The Iraqi government under Abadi prefers Iranian contribution to fighting ISIS over Arab involvement.
00:22:35 Clash of Civilizations: ISIS and the Struggle Against Global Extremism
ISIS: A Clash of Civilizations: Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud views the fight against ISIS as a battle for civilization against an obscene enemy that kills, rapes, enslaves, and teaches children violence.
ISIS’s Global Reach: ISIS’s recruitment and operations span across multiple countries, highlighting the need for intelligence sharing and cooperation to combat the threat.
Spillover of Violence: ISIS’s activities in Iraq and Syria have led to spillover violence in Europe, Yemen, Libya, and the Middle East, raising concerns about a worsening scenario in 2015.
Terrorism as a Global Struggle: John Baird recognizes terrorism as a global phenomenon that requires a global response, comparable to the struggles against fascism and communism in the past century.
Addressing ISIS’s Propaganda: Baird emphasizes the need to combat ISIS’s propaganda and efforts to radicalize individuals, in addition to military efforts in Iraq and Syria.
Kurdistan’s Aspirations: Rima Maktabi observes a perception in Kurdistan that recent events in Iraq may facilitate the establishment of a Kurdish state, alongside Sunni and Shiite federations.
Unity Through Justice and Equality: Ayad Allawi stresses the importance of justice and equality for all ethnic and religious groups in Iraq as the basis for unity, as reflected in the Iraqi constitution.
00:28:01 Regional Kurdish Statehood Aspirations in Post-Constitution Iraq
Kurds’ Desire for a State: Kurds, a significant population in the region, aspire to establish their own state, reflecting their right to self-determination. However, the Iraqi Kurds have chosen to work towards a united and democratic Iraq through the Iraqi constitution.
Iraq’s Unity and the Kurdish Role: Kurdish figures actively participate in the government in Baghdad, demonstrating their commitment to a unified Iraq. Kurds seek to be recognized as true partners within Iraq, fostering a better relationship with the Baghdad government.
Challenges to Kurdish Statehood: The timing is not right for a Kurdish state due to the potential for conflict and regional instability. Iraq’s complex ethnic and sectarian composition requires unity to maintain peace and stability.
Historical Example of Kurdish Leadership: Salah al-Din al-Ayubi, known as Saladin, was a Kurdish ruler who unified the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula under the Ayyubid dynasty. His rule was welcomed and respected, highlighting the potential for peaceful coexistence and leadership.
Inclusive Governance and Kurdish Representation: An Iraq with equal political rights and obligations for all components can foster unity. The example of a Kurdish president in Iraq demonstrates the possibility of inclusive governance.
Confronting Barbaric Evil: The focus should be on addressing the barbaric evil of terrorism, rather than pursuing divisive policies.
ISIS’s Spread and Strategy: ISIS is expanding its reach, not just losing control in Syria and Iraq. The group attracts individuals motivated to die for their cause. ISIS thrives in areas with weak or non-existent law and order.
Factors Fueling ISIS’s Growth: Sectarianism and lack of pluralism contribute to ISIS’s recruitment efforts. Political and social problems in various countries create fertile ground for ISIS’s activities. Regional powers’ involvement in conflicts adds complexity and challenges to efforts against ISIS.
Need for a Comprehensive Strategy: Developing a structured and comprehensive strategy is vital to effectively confront ISIS. Such a strategy must address ISIS’s presence and activities not only in Iraq and Syria but globally. The strategy should involve addressing the root causes that contribute to ISIS’s appeal and recruitment.
Collective Action and Reforms: A collective approach is necessary, involving cooperation from countries in the Arab world, the Islamic world, and the broader international community. Measures such as stopping the flow of foreign fighters, implementing political reforms, and providing support to affected regions should be undertaken.
Addressing Systemic Issues: To effectively combat ISIS, it is crucial to address underlying problems such as weak governance, sectarian divisions, and socioeconomic inequalities. Strengthening institutions, promoting inclusive governance, and addressing grievances can help prevent the growth of extremist ideologies.
Audience Questions: Bewar from Kurdistan questioned the idea of Iraqi unity, suggesting that it may be the root of the country’s problems, and asked for tools to promote genuine unity and happiness among all Iraqis. Sara Alawi asked His Royal Highness Turkey Al-Faisal how accountability will be implemented for the Iraqi government, given the international community’s dismissive attitude towards Iraq in recent years.
Prince Turki Al Faisal’s Response: The current Iraqi government came to power through the combined efforts of Iraqis and the international community, with Nouri al-Maliki’s main support coming from Iran, the United States, and European governments. When that support diminished, a national unity government was formed, including former opponents of Nouri al-Maliki, with the goal of improving the situation in Iraq. Prince Turki Al Faisal emphasized the importance of holding the current government accountable for its actions, as events in Iraq have regional and international repercussions.
00:43:41 International Perspectives on Regional Challenges in the Middle East
What Iraq Needs to Do: Iraq needs to prioritize confronting the evil of Daesh, and it needs to have a government that governs for all Iraqis. Iraq needs to make more progress with the Sunni population and reduce any sympathy they may have for Daesh. Iraq needs to implement the roadmap that all political groups have agreed to.
The Role of Intelligence Sharing: Intelligence sharing between Iraq and its allies is not happening, and this is a major obstacle to combatting Daesh. There is no will to pull the information, and the international allies are not party to the information.
Regional Influence: The empty chair at the conference was seen as representing Iran, which refused to send a representative. Saudi Arabia has extended a hand of friendship to Iran, but Iran has not shown seriousness in meeting Saudi concerns. Iran’s support for Assad, influence in Iraq, and material support for terrorism are seen as negative and destabilizing.
The Iranian Regime: The current Iranian regime is playing a very negative and destructive role in the region. Their material and tangible support for Assad has led to tens of thousands of people being killed. Their influence in Iraq has been incredibly negative. Their material support for terrorism throughout the region is incredibly destabilizing.
Extending a Hand to Iran: Saudi Arabia and other countries would extend a hand to the government in Tehran if they choose to take a different approach to foreign relations. However, Iran’s current approach is seen as part of the problem, not part of the solution.
00:52:24 Iraq's Challenges and the Need for Regional Stability
Challenges Facing Iraq:
Terrorism Humanitarian crisis with displaced people and refugees Decrease in oil prices Inherited challenges
Iraq’s Needs: Political stability Mutual understanding between political factions and constituents Cooperation with regional and global countries
Regional Stability and Dialogue: Regional stability is crucial for Iraq’s peace The undermining of Iraq led to instability in the region, including Syria and Egypt A regional conference is needed for open dialogue and addressing anxieties
Potential Consequences of Regional Instability:
Further escalation of violence and conflict Engulfment of countries in regional turmoil
Pillars for Regional Solutions:
Non-interference and respect for sovereignty Balanced benefits and trading benefits
Abstract
Unraveling the Complexities of Iraq’s Security, Political Landscape, and Regional Dynamics
*Combating ISIS and the Pursuit of Stability in Iraq*
In the intricate security environment of Iraq, where multiple forces including coalition troops, Shiite militias, the Iraqi army, Peshmerga, and ISIS vie for dominance, the lack of coordination emerges as a critical impediment to effective action against ISIS. Nearly a third of Iraq remains under ISIS control, highlighting the challenges in coordinating efforts to liberate these areas. The military approach, while essential, proves insufficient on its own; political reconciliation and addressing grievances are equally crucial. This sentiment is echoed by British Foreign Secretary’s estimation that expelling ISIS from Iraq could take up to two years, a time span that poses significant challenges for sustained global involvement. Dr. Ayad Allawi emphasizes the need for coordination among different parties and reconciliation with the people in ISIS-occupied regions, which is crucial for the long-term success of the liberation battle.
*The Broader Context: Ayad Allawi and Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud’s Perspectives*
Ayad Allawi offers a unique lens, referring to ISIS as “fathers” to underline their oppressive role and attributing the complexity in Iraq partly to U.S. and Iranian maneuvers to retain Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister. This, he argues, exacerbated sectarian tensions and led to the rise of ISIS. Contrastingly, Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud announces a unification program by the new Iraqi government, highlighting a move towards reconciliation.
*Rima Maktabi, John Baird, and Rowsch N. Shaways: Diverse Insights*
Rima Maktabi questions the sole culpability of Nouri al-Maliki for Iraq’s woes, suggesting a multifaceted problem. John Baird, stressing a multi-pronged approach to tackle ISIS, highlights the new Iraqi government’s progress but urges more inclusive governance. Similarly, Rowsch N. Shaways critiques the effectiveness of funding and training provided to the Iraqi army since 2003, calling for improved intelligence sharing.
*ISIS’s Global Reach and the Struggle Against It*
ISIS’s expansion beyond Iraq and Syria marks a regional threat, emphasizing the fight in Iraq as pivotal. The challenges include Sunni alienation, Iranian-backed militia involvement, and the need for specialized Iraqi forces. The international response, deemed insufficient, raises concerns about the effectiveness of global strategies against ISIS. Engaging the Sunni tribes is essential for gaining support and fighting ISIS effectively. The militias backed by Iran are committing atrocities against Sunnis, alienating them further.
*ISIS as a Global Threat: A Clash of Civilizations*
Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud views the fight against ISIS as a global “clash for civilization,” underlining the group’s severe atrocities and the need for a comprehensive response. ISIS’s recruitment and operations span across multiple countries, highlighting the need for intelligence sharing and cooperation to combat the threat. John Baird recognizes terrorism as a global phenomenon that requires a global response, comparable to the struggles against fascism and communism in the past century. Baird emphasizes the need to combat ISIS’s propaganda and efforts to radicalize individuals, in addition to military efforts in Iraq and Syria.
*Historical and Political Foundations of Extremism*
The dismantlement of Iraq’s state apparatus post-2003 invasion, along with sectarian policies and regional interference (notably Iran’s), laid the groundwork for extremism’s rise in Iraq. The political landscape underscores the need for a new social contract focusing on inclusive policies and rebuilding national institutions. De-Baathification and sectarianism fueled regional powers’ intervention in Iraq. Iran has significant influence in Iraq, supporting militias and controlling the political environment. The army lost its national character and lacked motivation to fight due to political interference.
*Coalition Efforts and Civilizational Clash*
The coalition against ISIS, involving various countries, faces hurdles like European reluctance to bomb in Syria and Iraq’s rejection of Arab military contributions.
*ISIS’s Global Terrorism and the Kurdish Question*
John Baird likens ISIS to historical global threats, emphasizing the need for a worldwide counter-response. Meanwhile, the question of Kurdish statehood emerges amid Iraq’s instability, reflecting a global trend towards self-determination. However, the feasibility of a Kurdish state remains complicated due to regional dynamics.
*Addressing Kurdish Grievances and Aspirations*
The Kurds’ struggle for recognition and rights within Iraq highlights the need for a fair, inclusive Iraqi state. While Kurdish aspirations for statehood are acknowledged, the regional implications and historical context suggest a cautious approach.
*Unity, Diversity, and Regional Dynamics in Iraq*
The need for a unified Iraq, respecting its diverse ethnic and sectarian makeup, is paramount for stability. Sectarianism, regional proxy wars, and the role of external powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia add layers to the complex regional dynamics. The proposed regional conference aims to address these issues through dialogue and mutual respect.
* A Path Forward for Iraq and the Region*
Iraq’s journey towards stability and peace necessitates addressing both immediate security concerns and deeper political, social, and regional issues. The role of regional and global actors, the importance of inclusive governance, and the resolution of longstanding grievances are crucial for creating a sustainable, peaceful future for Iraq and its neighbors.
(Supplemental Updates Included)
*Questions and Answers in Iraq*
Questions from the audience highlighted concerns about the feasibility of Iraqi unity, accountability for the Iraqi government, and regional influences. Prince Turki Al Faisal responded by emphasizing the importance of accountability and addressing the concerns of the Sunni population.
*The Regional Influence of Saudi Arabia and Iran in Iraq*
Discussions focused on the negative role of Iran in the region, its support for Assad and terrorism, and the need for cooperation and dialogue between regional countries.
*Iraq Needs Stability and Regional Cooperation*
The conference emphasized the importance of stability in Iraq, mutual understanding, and regional cooperation to address terrorism, humanitarian crises, and other challenges facing the country.
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