Peter Thiel (PayPal/Palantir Co-founder) – Peter Thiel (Nov 2022)
Chapters
00:00:02 The Decline of Classical Liberalism and the Rise of the Anti-University
University as the Antonym of Diversity: Thiel suggests that the antonym of diversity is the university. He sees the postmodern multiversity as a threat to traditional universities, characterized by nihilism, relativism, and totalitarianism.
Campus Wars and Culture Debates: Thiel has been involved in campus wars and culture debates for over 35 years, starting with the Stanford Group.
Exposing the “I, Rigoberta Menchu” Book: Thiel recounts an incident from his time at Stanford, where he exposed the tendentious nature of a book chosen for a multicultural course. The book, “I, Rigoberta Menchu,” portrayed a Guatemalan peasant woman oppressed in various ways, which Thiel found preposterous.
Rigoberta Menchu’s Nobel Peace Prize: Thiel was surprised to learn that Rigoberta Menchu won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1992, realizing he had unintentionally contributed to her victimization by highlighting her book.
Challenges of Classical Liberalism: Thiel expresses concern about the challenges faced by classical liberalism, often feeling like they are fighting a losing battle. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding strawman arguments and seeking common ground with opponents.
The Need for a Different Approach: Thiel proposes a different approach to address the challenges faced by classical liberalism, rather than relying solely on traditional methods.
00:06:25 Assessing True Progress in Science and Technology
Defining Technological Progress: Thiel defines technology as tools that improve efficiency and productivity.
Questioning STEM Propaganda: Thiel challenges the prevailing narrative of exponential progress in science and technology.
Decisive Blow to Humanities and STEM: If it can be shown that science and technology are not delivering the promised progress, it would undermine the value of both humanities and STEM.
Difficulty in Evaluating Progress: Thiel highlights the compartmentalized and specialized nature of modern universities, making it challenging to evaluate progress objectively.
Indirect Indicators of Slowed Progress: Thiel cites economic indicators, such as the lack of improvement in living standards among younger generations, as evidence of slowed progress.
Evaluating Breakthroughs: Thiel emphasizes the importance of assessing the significance and impact of technological breakthroughs.
00:10:57 Technological Stagnation and the Challenge of Achieving 4% GDP Growth
Technological Stagnation: Peter Thiel argues that technological progress has stagnated for the past 50 years, despite the rapid advancements in information technology. This stagnation is evident in the lack of progress in fields like nuclear engineering, aero-astro-engineering, and other engineering disciplines.
Thought Experiments: Thiel proposes two thought experiments to illustrate the significance of technological progress. The first experiment suggests that solving macroeconomic problems, such as achieving 4% GDP growth, could be possible by eliminating environmental and immigration rules. The second experiment involves appointing a commission to measure technological change, potentially leading to the exaggeration of progress for political and economic benefits.
Lying about Technological Progress: Thiel criticizes the Clinton administration’s approach of using hedonic adjustments to exaggerate technological progress in the 1990s, which helped balance the budget. He argues that such lying is intellectually dishonest and undermines the pursuit of truth.
Counter-Arguments and Humanities vs. Sciences: Thiel acknowledges the counter-argument that the sciences have made significant progress, but he argues that they may be as defective as the humanities. He suggests that evaluating the humanities is easier than evaluating the sciences, as the results of the humanities are more visible and tangible. Thiel believes that majoring in the humanities is better for undergraduates because it prepares them for the reality of unemployment, while majoring in the sciences deludes students into believing they will be taken care of by the natural goodness of the universe.
00:17:21 Technological Pessimism and the Dystopian Turn
The Dystopian Turn of Science and Technology: Thiel suggests that the slowdown in technological progress since the 1970s can be attributed to a shift in the perception of science and technology towards a more dystopian and destructive view.
Reasons for the Shift: Factors such as extra government regulation, the picking of low-hanging fruit, and cultural changes may have contributed to the slowdown.
Technological Dual-Use and Nuclear Power: Thiel emphasizes the dual-use nature of many technologies, where they can be used for both beneficial and destructive purposes. The example of nuclear power is given, where the transfer of nuclear technology to India resulted in the development of nuclear weapons, raising concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Environmental Concerns and the Brakes on Progress: The environmental movement gained momentum in the 1970s due to concerns about the negative consequences of rapid technological advancement. The perception of technology as potentially destructive led to a desire to slow down progress and implement regulations to mitigate potential risks.
00:21:01 Science and Technology in a Dystopian Age
Thiel’s Discomfort with mRNA Vaccines: Peter Thiel expresses discomfort with the mRNA vaccines due to their proximity to gain-of-function research, which is suspected to be a euphemism for bioweapons programs. He suggests that the lack of celebration for the scientists who developed the mRNA vaccine stems from people’s unease with its potential dystopian implications.
Dystopian Themes in Science Fiction: Thiel highlights the prevalence of dystopian themes in science fiction published in the last 40 years. He questions whether this reflects a deep law of nature or is a reflection of the current dystopian cultural mindset.
Technological Progress and Dystopian Limits: Thiel believes that technological progress has reached a dystopian limit, where advancements lead to the creation of destructive machines. This phenomenon is evident in the computer world, where the focus on AI and AGI carries potential negative consequences.
00:23:12 Technological Pessimism and the Rise of Totalitarianism
MIRI’s New Strategy: MIRI, a leading AI research organization, announced a shift in focus from aligning AI with human values to helping humanity die with dignity. This decision reflects pessimism about the possibility of solving the AI alignment problem and a belief that survival is unattainable.
Nick Bostrom’s Vulnerable World Hypothesis: Bostrom’s hypothesis identifies various dangers created by science and technology and proposes a four-part program for achieving stabilization. This program includes restricting technological development, limiting human diversity, establishing preventive policing, and implementing effective global governance.
Counterarguments to Bostrom’s Hypothesis: The counterargument is that totalitarianism is far more dangerous than science and technology. Classical liberalism emphasizes the need to balance the risks of science and technology with the dangers of one-world totalitarian states.
Growth and Regulation: Economic growth is crucial for solving global problems, but government regulations often hinder technological progress. Regulations are often driven by cultural factors and fear, such as the FDA’s increased power after the Thalidomide incident.
Discussion: A discussion ensued on the role of government regulations in hindering technological progress, with differing opinions on the impact of nuclear power regulations and the FAA’s role in aviation technology stagnation. The speakers agreed on the need to address micro-regulatory issues and roll back unnecessary regulations.
Hijacked Progress: Peter Thiel believes that the concept of progress has been hijacked, making it less clear how to quantify what progressives are.
Nuclear Power Obstruction: Thiel emphasizes the importance of nuclear power, highlighting its 45-year stagnation despite its obvious benefits. He suggests that the opposition to nuclear power extends far beyond the Overton window, indicating a significant societal resistance.
Question on Progress and Return: A student poses a question about framing progress in terms of return, drawing a parallel to religious reactionaries who seek progress but avoid sounding like it.
Thiel’s Confusion: Thiel expresses confusion about the exact meaning of the student’s question, acknowledging that there is something about progress that has been hijacked.
00:34:35 Progressive Change or Regressive Change: The Paradox of Modern Political Discourse
Change vs. Progress: Peter Thiel notes a shift from the term “progress” to “change” in political discourse. “Hope and change,” Obama’s initial 2008 campaign slogan, was changed to “the change we need” due to negative poll results. The word “change” often implies non-progressive or regressive changes.
Reclaiming Progress: Thiel emphasizes the importance of reclaiming the concept of progress and asking how the next generation can improve upon the current one. He believes the left’s lack of belief in progress creates an opportunity to reclaim this ground.
Critique of Classical Liberalism: Thiel criticizes classical liberalism for its shortcomings, despite its past golden age. He compares it to Marxism, suggesting that true liberalism has been tried and found wanting. Thiel believes a critical examination of classical liberalism is necessary to identify its flaws and progress beyond it.
Humanities and the Future: Hollis Robbins, Dean of Humanities at the University of Utah, acknowledges Thiel’s relative argument about studying humanities. Robbins seeks to balance optimism and pessimism in discussions about the future, recognizing the need to study the past while looking toward the future.
Defining Success: Robbins poses the question: “What does success look like?” in the context of the pessimistic discussion.
00:38:21 Optimism, Pessimism, and the Human Condition
Optimism and Pessimism: Peter Thiel dislikes psychology and therapy, believing they have been overused and can lead to bad forms of psychotherapy. He sees extreme optimism as denial and extreme pessimism as acceptance, both leading to sloth and laziness. A healthy attitude is somewhere in between, acknowledging the challenges while rejecting totalitarianism or destruction. Individual human agency and the indomitability of the human spirit are crucial.
Fascism and the State: Thiel believes that the state’s influence has increased significantly, with elements of fascism present in society. He acknowledges the existence of conferences and platforms for discussion, but notes that many topics can still lead to trouble. The internet has become more controlled by the state, but some parts remain freer than 20 years ago.
U.S.-China Entanglement: Thiel expresses concern about the U.S.’s relationship with China, emphasizing the risk of becoming similar to one’s enemies. He cautions against copying China’s surveillance and totalitarian AI practices in the U.S. He believes the situation is still better in the U.S. compared to China, but there are areas where the state’s influence has gone too far.
Diversity and the University: Thiel views universities as the antonym of diversity, as they often promote conformity. Through the Thiel Fellows Program, he has encouraged people to drop out of university, aiming to cultivate human potential. He believes that the program has taught him valuable lessons about individual initiative, resilience, and the importance of diversity of thought.
00:42:36 Rethinking University Education and Elitism
Thiele Fellows Program: The Thiele Fellows program is intended to foster human potential differently from traditional universities. The program accepts a small number of students annually and has had uneven results, but even the average outcome has been positive. Students who leave the program can still return to college later, as universities prioritize high graduation rates.
Critique of Universities: Thiel expresses concern about the state of universities, stating that many tracks offered do not lead to meaningful outcomes. He highlights the lack of teleology or clear purpose in university education, leading to widespread anxiety among students. According to Thiel, only two majors, computer science and petroleum engineering, offer reasonable job prospects outside of academia.
Elite Egalitarianism: Thiel suggests that elite universities employ extreme egalitarianism as a defense mechanism to avoid addressing their failures in serving students. This egalitarian approach discourages students from aiming for exceptional achievements, absolving the university of its responsibility to cultivate leaders. Thiel sees egalitarianism as an excuse for a failed elitism, where universities fail to fulfill their role in shaping society’s leaders.
Abstract
The Paradox of Progress: A Critical Analysis of Peter Thiel’s Perspectives on Technology, Liberalism, and Universities
In an era where relentless pursuit of progress and innovation shape every facet of society, Peter Thiel presents a contrarian view that dissects the foundations of modern ideologies, technological advancements, and academic institutions. His multifaceted critique explores the stagnation of technological progress, the challenges facing classical liberalism, and the perceived homogeneity within universities.
Technological Stagnation and Economic Implications
Thiel contends that true technological progress has been stagnant since the 1960s, particularly in fields like aerospace and nuclear engineering, where physical manipulation of the world is essential. Modern technology, with its focus on information technology, has not brought about significant improvements in living standards for younger generations. This slowdown in innovation contributes to macroeconomic issues such as low GDP growth and high deficits. Thiel criticizes the illusion of progress often propagated by governments and institutions, hindering genuine advancements and distorting reality.
Furthermore, Thiel defines technology as tools that improve efficiency and productivity. He challenges the narrative of exponential progress in science and technology, emphasizing the need for objective evaluation and assessment of technological breakthroughs. If it can be shown that science and technology are not delivering the promised progress, it would undermine the value of both humanities and STEM. The compartmentalized nature of modern universities makes it challenging to evaluate progress objectively. Thiel cites economic indicators, such as the lack of improvement in living standards among younger generations, as evidence of slowed progress.
Factors such as extra government regulation, the picking of low-hanging fruit, and cultural changes may have contributed to the slowdown. Thiel emphasizes the dual-use nature of many technologies, where they can be used for both beneficial and destructive purposes. The example of nuclear power is given, where the transfer of nuclear technology to India resulted in the development of nuclear weapons, raising concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The environmental movement gained momentum in the 1970s due to concerns about the negative consequences of rapid technological advancement. The perception of technology as potentially destructive led to a desire to slow down progress and implement regulations to mitigate potential risks.
The Dystopian Turn and Environmental Influence
The destructive potential of science and technology in the 20th century, including world wars and nuclear weapons, shifted societal attitudes towards skepticism about the inherent goodness of human progress. This viewpoint gained momentum with the environmental movement in the 1970s, highlighting the negative consequences of unchecked technological advancement. Increased regulation and caution in pursuing progress affected societal attitudes and slowed technological advancement. Thiel suggests that the slowdown in technological progress since the 1970s can be attributed to a shift in the perception of science and technology towards a more dystopian and destructive view.
Humanities vs. Sciences: A Case for Broader Understanding
Thiel advocates for studying the humanities over the sciences in undergraduate education. The humanities offer a clearer understanding of the limitations of knowledge, whereas the sciences can foster a false sense of certainty and progress. This leads to intense competition and disillusionment among students and academics. Thiel argues that technological progress has stagnated for the past 50 years, despite advancements in information technology. He proposes thought experiments to illustrate the significance of technological progress and criticizes the Clinton administration’s approach of using hedonic adjustments to exaggerate technological progress. Thiel acknowledges counter-arguments about progress in the sciences but argues that they may be as defective as the humanities. He suggests that majoring in the humanities is better for undergraduates because it prepares them for the reality of unemployment, while majoring in the sciences deludes students into believing in the natural goodness of the universe.
Classical Liberalism’s Struggle and Lack of Diverse Thought
Thiel expresses concern over the erosion of traditional university values due to classical liberalism’s failure. He urges attention to the lack of diverse thought and suppression of dissenting viewpoints in academia, exacerbated by postmodernism, nihilism, relativism, and totalitarianism. To maintain intellectual integrity, he emphasizes avoiding strawman arguments and caricaturing opponents’ positions. Thiel suggests that the postmodern multiversity, characterized by nihilism, relativism, and totalitarianism, is a threat to traditional universities. He has been involved in campus wars and culture debates for over 35 years, including the Stanford Group. Thiel recounts exposing the tendentious nature of a book chosen for a multicultural course, “I, Rigoberta Menchu,” which portrayed a Guatemalan peasant woman’s oppression, leading to her Nobel Peace Prize in 1992.
Universities: The Antithesis of Diversity?
Thiel provocatively describes universities as the antithesis of diversity, criticizing them for homogeneity of thought and a lack of diverse perspectives. He recounts his involvement in campus wars over Western culture and multiculturalism, particularly at Stanford University. His critique extends to the current state of universities, which he believes fail to prepare students adequately for leadership roles and meaningful careers outside academia.
Peter Thiel’s Approach to Progress and Innovation
Thiel suggests that discussions about progress often pave the way for totalitarian structures to oppress those deemed as lagging behind. He proposes a shift in language to frame progress as a return to traditional values, appealing to religious reactionaries. He criticizes the term “progressive” for lacking a clear definition and questions whether classical liberalism has been genuinely implemented. Thiel warns against the dangers of slowing down scientific and technological progress in the name of caution, asserting that totalitarianism poses a greater risk. He is concerned about the state’s increasing influence in various aspects of society, including the internet, and the potential imitation of China’s surveillance and totalitarian AI systems. Thiel expresses discomfort with the mRNA vaccines due to their proximity to gain-of-function research, which is suspected to be a euphemism for bioweapons programs. He suggests that the lack of celebration for the scientists who developed the mRNA vaccine stems from people’s unease with its potential dystopian implications. Thiel believes that technological progress has reached a dystopian limit, where advancements lead to the creation of destructive machines. This phenomenon is evident in the computer world, where the focus on AI and AGI carries potential negative consequences.
Technological Progress and Totalitarianism
Thiel warns against the dangers of slowing down scientific and technological progress in the name of caution, asserting that totalitarianism poses a greater risk. He is concerned about the state’s increasing influence in various aspects of society, including the internet, and the potential imitation of China’s surveillance and totalitarian AI systems.
Elite Egalitarianism:
– Thiel suggests that elite universities employ extreme egalitarianism as a defense mechanism to avoid addressing their failures in serving students.
– This egalitarian approach discourages students from aiming for exceptional achievements, absolving the university of its responsibility to cultivate leaders.
– Thiel sees egalitarianism as an excuse for a failed elitism, where universities fail to fulfill their role in shaping society’s leaders.
The Thiel Fellows Program: Cultivating Potential Outside Universities
Through the Thiel Fellows Program, Thiel supports individuals who drop out of university to pursue their potential outside traditional educational institutions. The program focuses on identifying exceptional individuals who can excel beyond the university system, highlighting Thiel’s belief in the importance of individual human agency and the indomitability of the human spirit.
Critique of Universities:
– Thiel expresses concern about the state of universities, stating that many tracks offered do not lead to meaningful outcomes.
– He highlights the lack of teleology or clear purpose in university education, leading to widespread anxiety among students.
– According to Thiel, only two majors, computer science and petroleum engineering, offer reasonable job prospects outside of academia.
The Thiel Fellows Program:
– The Thiel Fellows program is intended to foster human potential differently from traditional universities.
– The program accepts a small number of students annually and has had uneven results, but even the average outcome has been positive.
– Students who leave the program can still return to college later, as universities prioritize high graduation rates.
Concluding Thoughts: Balancing Pessimism and Optimism
Thiel acknowledges the challenge of finding success amidst prevailing pessimism. He advocates for a balanced approach that involves studying the past and looking toward the future, avoiding both blind optimism and excessive pessimism. His critique of the overuse of psychology in society reflects his disdain for extremes of optimism and pessimism, which he views as forms of laziness preventing individuals from taking action.
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