Peter Thiel (Facebook Board of Directors) – American Dream Reconsidered (Oct 2016)
Chapters
00:00:15 Globalization, Technology, and Progress: A Discussion
Introduction: The discussion focused on three concepts: globalization, technology, and progress. Globalization is defined as copying things that work, spreading knowledge horizontally. Technology is defined as new knowledge, progressing vertically. Progress involves a combination of inventing new things and spreading them globally.
Globalization Mechanisms: The mechanisms for globalization include the movement of people (immigration), goods (trade), money (capital and banking), and communications (internet). These four vectors facilitate the spread of knowledge, ideas, and inventions.
Challenges of Globalization: Thiel argues that globalization has faced several challenges in recent years, including: The rise of economic nationalism and protectionism, which limit the free flow of goods and services. The backlash against immigration, which restricts the movement of people and ideas. The increasing concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few individuals and corporations, which hinders the spread of prosperity.
The Future of Globalization: Thiel believes that globalization will continue to be a major force in the world, but it will need to be reformed to address the challenges it faces. He advocates for a more open and inclusive globalization that benefits all people, not just the wealthy and powerful.
Conclusion: Thiel’s insights on globalization, technology, and progress provide a thought-provoking perspective on these complex issues. He emphasizes the importance of copying things that work, spreading knowledge, and inventing new things to drive progress. He also highlights the challenges facing globalization and calls for a more open and inclusive approach to ensure that the benefits of globalization are shared by all.
00:07:05 Globalization: Progress and Pitfalls in a Complex World
Technology: Peter Thiel acknowledges that not all forms of technology are beneficial. Examples of potentially harmful technologies include nuclear weapons and environmentally destructive technologies.
Globalization: Globalization can also have negative aspects. It can lead to homogenization, intellectual stagnation, and the formation of oppressive one-world states. The free movement of people can facilitate the spread of terrorism and undesirable individuals.
Current Crisis of Globalization: In recent years, globalization has faced challenges and criticisms. People are questioning its effectiveness and whether it truly benefits everyone. Concerns arise about the unequal distribution of globalization’s benefits, enabling corruption, and the lack of tangible improvements.
Tyler Cowen’s Argument: Economist Tyler Cowen argues that globalization enhances cultural diversity and pluralism. He believes that increased globalization leads to a more diverse and vibrant cultural landscape.
Japan’s Copying of the West: Japan serves as an example of a country that extensively imitated the West. Japan’s rapid adoption of Western technologies and practices led to its emergence as a formidable economic competitor. However, this copying also created intense competition and challenges for Western industries.
00:12:03 Japan's Shift Away from Globalization: Implications for Technology and Society
Japan’s Shift Away from Imitation: Japan’s interest in globalization and imitation has declined over the past 15 years. Reduced interest in the United States, English language, and even golf. Shift away from globalization and imitation raises questions about America’s societal worth and the value of its emulation.
The Changing Role of Imitation in Globalization: Japan’s extreme focus on copying for over a century has ended, suggesting issues in Japan or America. Concerns arise about whether America is still producing innovations worthy of emulation.
China and India as Potential Economic Powers: China and India’s larger populations compared to Japan create a different dynamic. Copying by China and India, combined with their larger size, could lead to geopolitical shifts. America’s historical advantage in technological progress may be key to staying ahead.
Globalization and Technology: Globalization and technology have historically been contrasted. The past 200 years have witnessed a balance between globalization and technological advancement.
00:17:58 Technological Progress and Globalization in the 19th and 20th Centuries
1815-1914: A period of globalization and technological progress, known as the 19th century. World War I in 1914 led to a reversal of globalization and less technological progress.
1971-Present: Globalization restarted in 1971 with Kissinger’s visit to China. Rapid globalization for the past 45 years, but limited technological progress, primarily in software and computers. Information technology, computers, software, internet, and mobile internet became synonymous with technology.
Technology Definition: Technology involves doing new things, with a circular definition based on new occurrences. In the 1960s, technology included computers, rockets, supersonic jets, desert irrigation plans, new medicines, and various advancements. Today, technology is often associated with information technology and computer science.
Career Impact: Computer science has been a promising engineering field due to rapid progress in recent decades. Other engineering fields, such as mechanical, industrial, chemical, nuclear, and aerospace, have experienced slower progress.
Developing vs. Developed Countries: In the 1960s, the world was divided into first world (technologically progressing) and third world (stagnant) countries. Today, developing countries copy the developed world, leading to a pro-globalization convergence theory. The developing-developed dichotomy implies reduced expectations for future generations in developed countries.
Globalization vs. Technology: The last 40 years have seen tremendous globalization but limited technological advancement. The developed world is viewed as where inventions have already happened, resulting in lower expectations for future progress. This situation reflects a pro-globalization but anti-technology dichotomy.
Alexis de Tocqueville’s Observations: Alexis de Tocqueville identified two types of regimes: democracy and aristocracy. He noted the differences between the two systems and the impact they have on the organization of human affairs.
00:23:11 The Interplay Between Globalization and Technology: A Discussion
The Costs of Globalization: Governance: As democracies grow larger, the impact of an individual’s vote diminishes, leading to feelings of powerlessness and disconnection. Global institutions often face criticism for being undemocratic, leading to concerns about representation and accountability. Technology vs. Globalization: Peter Thiel argues that technology is more important than globalization. Technological progress drives innovation and prevents stagnation. Excessive focus on globalization without technological advancement can lead to a point where all ideas have been copied, and there’s no more innovation. New York City vs. Silicon Valley: New York City represents globalization, with finance as its dominant industry. Silicon Valley represents technology, with a focus on innovation and invention. Talented individuals face a choice between pursuing careers in finance or technology.
Peter Thiel’s Personal Journey: Thiel’s educational background includes philosophy, law, and a brief stint as an attorney in New York City. He left New York after seven months and three days to work in an investment bank. Thiel’s interest in innovation and technology eventually led him to Silicon Valley, where he co-founded PayPal. Thiel’s Reflections: Thiel acknowledges that he wasn’t fully aware of the themes of globalization and technology during his early career. He describes his high school and college years as hyper-competitive, emphasizing the need to excel and succeed. Thiel’s personal experiences shaped his views on the importance of technology and innovation.
00:31:03 Globalization and the Illusion of World Dominance
Hyper-Competitive Culture: Peter Thiel reflects on the intense competition he experienced throughout his education and early career, from junior high school to law school and a prestigious law firm in Manhattan. He highlights the relentless pursuit of external validation and status, driven by the desire to beat others and achieve success.
Questioning the Value of Competition: Thiel had a quarter-life crisis in his mid-twenties, leading him to question the significance of the competitive achievements he had attained. He realized that even if one wins the competitions, it might not necessarily align with what truly matters or brings fulfillment.
Globalization’s Deceptive Promise: Thiel suggests that globalization perpetuates the illusion that individuals can rule the world by moving to influential cities like New York. However, once in these competitive environments, people discover that many others have been told the same story, making it much harder to achieve the desired outcome.
Technology vs. Globalization: Thiel distinguishes between the competitive dynamics of globalization and technology. He sees globalization as more competitive due to its emphasis on copying and sameness, which intensifies competition. In contrast, an ideal technological landscape would involve diverse pursuits, allowing individuals to explore different dimensions of knowledge and innovation.
00:34:26 America's Technological Slowdown and the Need for Greatness
Stuart Warner’s Observations: He recalls a friend with a dangerous car, symbolizing a sense of freedom and adventure. He admires the Empire State Building, built in 14 months, as a testament to America’s past technological achievements. He mentions other examples of rapid construction, like the Golden Gate Bridge and the Manhattan Project, highlighting America’s capacity for greatness. He expresses concern that America seems to have lost its sense of ambition and is no longer challenging itself to do extraordinary things.
Peter Thiel’s Agreement: Thiel agrees with Warner’s observations and considers the issue of technological slowdown outside of IT to be complex and over-determined. He believes that the question “why” is difficult to answer in this context due to multiple contributing factors.
00:37:06 Importance of Innovation and Challenges in Artificial Intelligence
Nature vs. Nurture Explanation for Slowed Innovation: Some argue that the easy inventions have already been discovered, leading to a slowdown in innovation. Thiel prefers cultural explanations, emphasizing the role of risk aversion, regulation, and education in shaping innovation.
Importance of Innovation: Thiel believes that stagnation in innovation is disappointing and unacceptable. He highlights areas like Alzheimer’s research and clean energy where progress is crucial. Thiel argues that economic growth and the functioning of representative democracy depend on continued innovation.
Political Implications of Innovation: Without growth, the representative system of democracy becomes gridlocked and fails to meet the needs of citizens. Thiel draws parallels to the 1930s, where economic stagnation led to the rise of fascism and communism.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its Potential: Thiel acknowledges the recent milestones in AI, such as Deep Mind beating the GO program and Deep Blue defeating Kasparov in chess. He notes the expansive definition of AI and the focus on economic and political implications. Thiel emphasizes the significance of AI’s potential to surpass human intelligence, likening it to an alien invasion.
Economic and Political Questions Surrounding AI: Thiel differentiates between the economic questions about job displacement and the political questions about AI’s potential dominance over humans. He suggests that the initial focus should be on understanding AI’s intentions and ensuring its friendliness.
00:46:01 Mimesis and Innovation: Balancing Imitation and Originality
Imitation: Imitation is a fundamental aspect of human nature and is essential for civilization. It is how language, culture, and education are transmitted. However, imitation can also lead to conformity and a loss of individuality.
Asperger’s: In Silicon Valley, a mild form of Asperger’s can be an advantage for entrepreneurs. Asperger’s individuals may be less likely to conform and more likely to pursue their own unique ideas. Business schools, on the other hand, tend to attract highly imitative individuals who lack original ideas.
Intellectual Pleasure: Thiel enjoys the intellectual stimulation of working in Silicon Valley. He is exposed to a wide range of interesting ideas and has the opportunity to work with talented people. Thiel believes that intellectual pleasure is more important than financial gain.
00:56:07 Challenges and Opportunities in Interdisciplinary Innovation
Interdisciplinary Entrepreneurship: Entrepreneurship often involves interdisciplinary thinking and requires a broad understanding of various domains. Successful entrepreneurs like Mark Zuckerberg have expertise in product, management, and global trends. Being an entrepreneur may not suit those with narrow academic specializations due to the wide range of knowledge required.
Big Data in Medicine: The healthcare industry, particularly primary care medicine, is embracing big data. Digitization and accumulation of patient data have led to data-driven diagnosis, intervention, and prognosis. The reliance on big data raises epistemological questions about knowledge commitments and metaphysical questions about cause and effect. The intuitive judgment of physicians may be sidelined due to risk-averse and insurance purposes.
Innovation Trends: Peter Thiel cautions against blindly following technology trends as they often represent crowded and poorly defined innovations. Buzzwords like “educational software,” “healthcare IT software,” “SAS software,” “big data,” and “cloud computing” should be met with skepticism. Thiel emphasizes the need to understand the underlying challenges and seek solutions that address the core issues. In healthcare, the focus should be on biological interventions rather than purely IT-based solutions.
01:00:38 The Challenges and Hopes for the American Dream in a Globalized World
Technology and Healthcare: Thiel believes that while technology can aid doctors in double-checking diagnoses, the focus on bits (data) can distract from finding actual cures for diseases like dementia and Alzheimer’s, which require interventions at the atomic level.
Doctors and Computers: Thiel emphasizes the importance of complementary roles between doctors and computers. Doctors should use their intuition, while computers can help with double-checking and diagnosing rare conditions. However, he cautions against doctors becoming mere appendages to machines, leading to a lack of independent thinking.
American Dream and Globalization: Thiel questions the relevance of the American dream in a globalized world, where communication and interaction among people worldwide have increased. He wonders if the concept still holds significance or has become obsolete due to globalization.
American Exceptionalism: Thiel considers American exceptionalism a double-edged sword. It can motivate people to achieve more opportunities and freedom but can also lead to complacency and a belief that America doesn’t need to improve. He warns against excessive self-esteem or exceptionalism, which can become an excuse for inaction.
Optimism and Pessimism: Thiel advocates for a moderate approach between optimism and pessimism. Extreme optimism leads to laziness and inaction, while extreme pessimism offers no motivation for improvement. A balanced perspective allows for individual agency and responsibility.
Teal Foundation and American Universities: Thiel expresses his concerns about the current state of American universities. He believes they often stifle creativity and innovation, leading to the establishment of the Teal Foundation and its Teal Fellowships. These fellowships aim to support research and foster a more conducive environment for groundbreaking ideas.
01:09:13 Higher Education: Insurance Policy and Tournament
Tuition Costs and Student Debt: Universities have experienced a bubble-like increase in tuition costs, leading to a surge in student debt. From 2000 to 2015, student debt increased by a factor of four, reaching $1.3 trillion. The high cost of education raises questions about its worth and whether it justifies the debt burden.
Education as an Investment or Consumption Good: Peter Thiel initially viewed education as a combination of an investment and a consumption good, causing confusion among students. He now believes it’s a mix of an insurance product and a tournament, two seemingly contradictory concepts.
Insurance Product: Many students pursue higher education as an insurance against falling through societal cracks, even if the investment return is uncertain. Parents save and students take on debt to ensure a college degree as a safety net. This raises questions about why societal gaps are widening, leading to a growing need for educational insurance.
Education as a Tournament: Elite universities operate as tournaments, driven by exclusion and selectivity. The value of these institutions lies in their exclusivity, similar to a Studio 54 nightclub. Expanding enrollment would undermine their prestige and value, leading to potential backlash from students, faculty, and alumni.
01:13:43 Past Books, Present Insights: Reassessing the Future Through History
Books About Past Predictions of the Future: Peter Thiel recommends reading past books that predicted the future to gain insights into why those predictions failed. “The American Challenge” by Zervan Schreiber predicted rapid technological acceleration, leading to a shorter workweek and more paid vacation by the year 2000, but these predictions proved incorrect. “The Great Illusion” by Norman Angell from 1911 argued that a world war would be senseless due to global interconnectedness, yet it still resonates today despite its failure to foresee the outbreak of World War I.
Thiel’s First Computer and Current Tech Preferences: Thiel’s first computer was a TRS-80 in 1979 or 1980. He currently uses standard Dell computers with Microsoft software. He owns an Apple iPhone.
Importance of Cities and Urban Network Effects: Thiel emphasizes the importance of cities, which he considers more natural political entities than states or countries. Cities have powerful network effects and are often more robust than countries. Thiel questions why cities like San Francisco with strong network effects can continue to thrive despite poor governance.
Universities’ Future and Online Learning: Thiel acknowledges the complex challenges facing brick-and-mortar universities. He suggests that universities need to adapt to changing circumstances and explore ways to make education more affordable, accessible, and relevant. Thiel believes that universities should focus on providing students with the skills and knowledge they need to succeed in the modern economy.
01:21:37 The Complex Role of Failure in Silicon Valley
Online Learning vs. Traditional Education: Online universities have been overstated as a replacement for traditional universities because the status and recognition of a degree are often more valuable than the learning itself. There are questions about whether online learning can approximate the community and interaction of a classroom.
Challenges Faced by Universities: Universities face a challenge of delivering enough value to students despite rising tuition costs. The large amount of student debt raises questions about the return on investment in higher education.
Reasons for Rising Higher Education Costs: One partial explanation is that universities have been able to charge more due to the high demand for college education, resulting in inelastic demand. However, this trend may be reaching a breaking point, leading to potential changes in the higher education system.
The Experience Machine Thought Experiment: Robert Nozick’s experience machine is a hypothetical device that can provide any desired pleasure or experience through virtual reality. The question is whether one would choose to spend their life in such a machine, and Peter Thiel’s response is that he would not.
The Importance of Reality in Technology: Thiel believes that the most powerful internet businesses are those that make cyberspace relatively real, not those that create a totally disconnected alternate universe. Virtual reality and augmented reality technologies will likely be most impactful when they complement the real world, rather than serving as escapist fantasies.
The Value of Failure: Thiel challenges the Silicon Valley mindset that portrays failure as intrinsically worthwhile. He argues that failure is often destructive and demotivating, and while resilience is important, failure should not be sought after.
Abstract
Globalization and Technology: A Critical Examination of Progress, Pitfalls, and Paradigms
In a world increasingly characterized by the twin phenomena of globalization and technological advancement, it’s essential to scrutinize their interplay and implications. This article delves into the multifaceted aspects of these two forces, analyzing the dynamics of globalization – the horizontal spread of knowledge and practices – and technological progress – the vertical creation of new knowledge. We explore the mechanisms driving globalization, such as the movement of people, goods, money, and information, and consider the claim that globalization’s pace has slowed in recent decades. Simultaneously, we examine the potential negative consequences of these phenomena, ranging from cultural homogenization to economic and political challenges, while also considering the views of various thinkers like Peter Thiel, Tyler Cowen, and Alexis de Tocqueville.
Globalization and Technological Progress: The Dual Engines of Modernity
Globalization and technology have been the dual engines driving the modern world, shaping societies and economies. Globalization, characterized by the copying of successful models and the horizontal spread of knowledge, has been a powerful force in bridging geographical and cultural divides. Yet, it’s argued that this process has experienced a slowdown, raising questions about its future trajectory.
Technological progress, in contrast, involves the creation of new knowledge and innovation, often seen as the backbone of economic and social advancement. The United States has historically led in this domain, maintaining its edge through continual innovation. However, recent decades have seen a shift, with technological advances being largely confined to the digital field, raising concerns about a slowdown in broader, transformative innovations.
Globalization’s Mechanisms and Consequences
The mechanisms driving globalization – immigration, trade, capital flows, and the internet – have transformed the global landscape, facilitating unprecedented levels of interaction and exchange. However, these processes are not without their drawbacks. The potential for negative consequences, such as the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the environmental impacts of fossil fuels, and the homogenization of cultures, cannot be overlooked. These issues highlight the need for a critical assessment of globalization’s trajectory and its equitable distribution of benefits.
Shifting Dynamics: Japan, China, and India
Japan’s recent shift away from globalization, as evidenced by declining interest in Western practices like English language and golf, poses critical questions about the desirability of American societal models. Meanwhile, the potential for China and India, with their vast populations, to eclipse the economic power of the US if they successfully emulate and catch up technologically, underscores the ongoing global economic realignment.
The Dichotomy of Developed vs. Developing Nations
The historical dichotomy between the technologically advancing ‘First World’ and the stagnant ‘Third World’ has evolved into a narrative of developing countries emulating the developed ones. This convergence theory, however, implies a certain stagnation in the developed world, potentially signaling a reduced expectation for future progress and an anti-technology stance.
The Interplay of Democracy, Globalization, and Technology
Alexis de Tocqueville’s observation of two regimes – democracy and aristocracy – provides a lens through which to view the tensions inherent in globalization and technological progress. The growth of large democracies and undemocratic global institutions, like the European Union, raises concerns about representation, accountability, and the impact on innovation.
Centers of Globalization and Technology: New York vs. Silicon Valley
The contrast between New York as a center of globalization and Silicon Valley as a hub of technology and innovation encapsulates the trade-off faced by talented individuals. This dichotomy also reflects the broader tension between engaging in the global race for dominance and pursuing impactful technological projects.
Globalization, Technology, and Progress: Insights from Peter Thiel
Globalization is defined as copying things that work, spreading knowledge horizontally, while technology is defined as new knowledge, progressing vertically. Thiel argues that globalization has faced challenges, including economic nationalism, backlash against immigration, and concentration of wealth. He advocates for a more open and inclusive globalization that benefits all people.
The Complexities of Technology, Globalization, and Their Potential Downsides
Not all forms of technology are beneficial, with examples like nuclear weapons and environmentally destructive technologies. Globalization can lead to homogenization, intellectual stagnation, and the formation of oppressive one-world states. Tyler Cowen argues that globalization enhances cultural diversity and pluralism. Japan’s extreme focus on copying for over a century has ended, raising questions about America’s societal worth and innovation.
Globalization and Technological Progress: A Changing Dynamic
Japan’s shift away from imitation and globalization raises questions about America’s societal worth and the value of its emulation. China and India’s potential to eclipse the US economically, due to their large populations and ability to emulate and catch up technologically, underscores the ongoing global economic realignment. Globalization and technology have historically been contrasted, but the past 200 years have witnessed a balance between the two.
Technological and Globalization Progress Over Time
From 1815 to 1914, globalization and technological progress advanced in tandem until World War I led to a reversal in this trend. Since 1971, the world has experienced rapid globalization with limited technological progress, primarily focused on software and computers. This period has seen information technology and computer science become synonymous with technology.
The Costs of Globalization
Governance challenges arise as democracies expand, leading to diminished voter impact and feelings of powerlessness. Global institutions often face criticism for being und emocratic. There is a crucial balance between technological progress and globalization. Technological innovation is vital to prevent stagnation, while excessive globalization without technological advancement risks reaching a point where all ideas have been copied, eliminating further innovation. The contrast between New York City and Silicon Valley exemplifies this balance. New York, with finance as its dominant industry, represents globalization, while Silicon Valley, focusing on innovation and invention, symbolizes technology. Talented individuals are thus faced with a choice between careers in finance or technology.
Peter Thiel’s Personal Journey
Peter Thiel’s journey, from his educational background in philosophy and law to his brief stint as an attorney in New York City, illustrates a transition towards innovation and technology. Leaving New York after just seven months and three days for an investment bank, Thiel’s interest eventually led him to co-found PayPal in Silicon Valley. Reflecting on his early career, Thiel acknowledges that he wasn’t fully aware of the themes of globalization and technology. His high school and college years were marked by a hyper-competitive atmosphere, emphasizing excellence and success. These experiences profoundly shaped his perspectives on technology and innovation.
Interdisciplinary Entrepreneurship, Big Data in Medicine, and Innovation Trends
Entrepreneurship often requires interdisciplinary thinking and a broad understanding of various fields. In the healthcare industry, particularly primary care medicine, there is an increasing embrace of big data for data-driven diagnosis, intervention, and prognosis. Thiel cautions against blindly following prevailing technology trends, which often represent crowded areas with poorly defined innovations.
Peter Thiel’s View on Technology, American Dream, and Universities
Thiel posits that while technology aids doctors in verifying diagnoses, an overemphasis on data (bits) can distract from finding tangible cures for diseases like dementia and Alzheimer’s, which require interventions at the atomic level. He underscores the complementary roles between doctors and computers. Thiel also questions the relevance of the American dream in a globalized world and views American exceptionalism as a double-edged sword. He advocates for a balanced perspective between optimism and pessimism and voices concerns about the current state of American universities, leading to the establishment of the Thiel Foundation and its Teal Fellowships.
Peter Thiel’s Critique of Modern Education
Thiel observes a bubble-like surge in university tuition fees, resulting in increased student debt. He initially perceived education as a blend of an investment and a consumption good but now views it as a combination of an insurance product and a tournament. Many students pursue higher education as a safeguard against falling through societal cracks, despite uncertain returns on investment. Elite universities function like tournaments, driven by exclusion and selectivity, with their value lying in exclusivity.
Concluding Thoughts: Balancing Globalization and Technological Progress
In conclusion, the intricate relationship between globalization and technological progress demands a nuanced understanding and balanced approach. As the world navigates the complexities of these twin phenomena, it’s crucial to foster environments that encourage innovation, while critically assessing and addressing the potential negative consequences of both globalization and technology. The future lies in finding synergies between these forces, ensuring equitable and sustainable progress for all.
Supplemental Updates
Peter Thiel’s Insights on Technology, Globalization, Cities, and Universities
Peter Thiel recommends revisiting past books that predicted the future to understand why those predictions failed. His first computer was a TRS-80, and he now uses standard Dell computers with Microsoft software, owning an Apple iPhone. Thiel highlights the significance of cities as more natural political entities than states or countries. He acknowledges the challenges facing brick-and-mortar universities, suggesting they need to adapt to changing circumstances to make education more affordable, accessible, and relevant.
Reflections on Higher Education, Virtual Reality, and the Value of Failure
The potential of online universities as replacements for traditional ones has been overstated, given the value and recognition of a physical degree. Universities face the challenge of providing enough value to justify rising tuition costs, raising questions about the return on investment in higher education. Thiel critiques the Silicon Valley mindset that glorifies failure, arguing that failure is often destructive and demotivating.
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