Motion: This House believes that the current growth crisis is a result of technological stagnation in a risk-averse society.

Speakers:
Garry Kasparov: Former world chess champion, political activist, and author Peter Thiel: Co-founder of PayPal, founder of Palantir Technologies, and venture capitalist Mark Shuttleworth: Entrepreneur, space tourist, and founder of Ubuntu Ken Rogoff: Economist, former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, and author

Moderator:

Ian Gordon: Director of the Oxford Martin School

Key Points:
The debate centers around the idea that the current economic growth crisis is caused by technological stagnation and a risk-averse society. Kasparov and Thiel argue in favor of the motion, while Shuttleworth and Rogoff oppose it. Kasparov emphasizes the need for disruptive innovation and argues that society has become too risk-averse. Thiel discusses the importance of entrepreneurship and investment in high-risk, high-reward ventures. Shuttleworth highlights the role of education and science in driving innovation and economic growth. Rogoff presents a more cautious perspective, emphasizing the need for stability and prudent risk management.

Audience Interaction:
After the initial speeches, there is a 20-minute cross-examination session where the speakers question each other. The debate is followed by a Q&A session where the audience can ask questions to the speakers.

Voting:
At the end of the debate, the audience votes with their feet by walking through doors marked “I” (in favor) or “No” (against) to determine the outcome.

Inventions that Shaped Our Modern World:
Electricity, internal combustion, airplanes, satellites, vaccinations, antibiotics, integrated circuits, computers, internet, cell phones, and smartphones have significantly impacted the world. However, the nature of inventions and innovations has changed over time.

Modern Innovations vs. Past Inventions:
Time Magazine’s list of best inventions includes the iPhone in 2008, iPad in 2010, and Ares rocket in 2009. While these innovations have brought convenience, they are incremental rather than revolutionary. People still use Edison’s electric bulb, internal combustion engines (despite their harmful effects), and burn more coal in the 21st century than in the 19th century.

Incremental Inventions vs. Pole of Life:
Many believe that incremental improvements are sufficient for progress. However, Kasparov argues that these small advancements are not comparable to inventions that have had a profound impact on humanity, such as the pole of life.

Origin of Modern Innovations:
The origins of modern innovations often date back several decades. Mobile phones first saw a call in 1973. The technological foundation of the internet was developed by DARPA in the 1960s. Professor Kleinrog’s theoretical work on packet switching was written in 1962.

Technological Slowdown and Society:
There has been a slowdown in major areas of human progress, such as life expectancy, energy production, and speed of travel, due to our risk-averse society.

The Cost of Social Progress:
While social progress has been achieved, it has come at the cost of technological innovation.

The Shift in Focus:
Society’s focus has shifted from innovation to social issues, resulting in a decline in funding and support for scientific and technological advancements.

The Rise of Financial Engineers and Lawyers:
The focus on risk aversion has led to an increase in financial engineers and lawyers, rather than scientists and engineers.

Political Avoidance of Real Issues:
Politicians avoid addressing real issues and focus on public speeches rather than private thinking, leading to a lack of progress on important societal challenges.

The Need for Risk-Taking:
Risk-taking is an essential part of success in a capitalist society, and without it, we will continue to face the same problems.

Call to Action:
It is time to reconsider our approach and take risks to build a better and brighter future.

Defining the Argument:
Proponents argue that the slowdown in technological progress and risk aversion contribute to the financial crisis.

Government’s Role in Risk-Taking:
Governments have always been risk-averse and responded to public fears. Historical programs like space flight and the internet were driven by fear, not optimism.

Democracies and Government Mandates:
Democracies respond to citizens’ fears, making it difficult to obtain mandates for change. Consumption patterns need to change to address real threats, not just government investment.

Companies and Innovation:
Companies are not innovators; individuals are. Entrepreneurs, inventors, and explorers are often unconventional and unpopular. Celebrating unconventional individuals is necessary for driving technological change.

Historical Perspective:
Past triumphs and disasters are often romanticized, while short-term issues dominate headlines. Inventions have always happened despite challenges and distractions. The collapse of the internet in 2000 did not halt entrepreneurship, science, or discovery.

Opportunities for Innovation Today:
Collaboration, research tools, and funding are more accessible than ever. Despite negative headlines, inventions are being made that will define the future.

Counterargument: Declining Wages and Changing Perceptions:
Wages have not kept up with technological progress in recent decades. Majority of people in the Western world are pessimistic about the next generation’s well-being. Innovation alone cannot compensate for the lack of progress in key areas.

Technological Stagnation and Energy Regression:
There has been significant progress in computers over the last 40 years, but a lack of progress and retrogression in energy production. Energy prices, particularly oil prices, have quintupled since the 1973 oil shock, indicating a technological failure in offsetting resource depletion. This combination of technological advancement in computers and stagnation in energy has created a Red Queen’s race scenario, where people must run faster just to stay in place.

Financial and Technological Crises:
Credit and technology are both linked to the future, and crises occur when the future is not as expected. A credit crisis happens when the future is not as good as anticipated, leading to defaults and financial instability. A technological crisis occurs when technological progress no longer powers civilization, leading to abatement of progress and disappointment in expectations.

Bubble Proliferation and the Danger of Utopian Views:
There has been a proliferation of extraordinary bubbles in recent decades, including Japan in the 1980s, tech in the 1990s, housing, finance, and government in the 2010s. This proliferation is driven by people who still hold utopian views of the future, even when reality does not support these expectations. Bubbles are particularly dangerous when they occur in the context of a lack of technological progress.

Austerity vs. Inflation Hobson’s Choice:
Policymakers often view the 1930s as a prism for addressing economic crises, leading to a choice between austerity and inflation. In the 1930s, printing money led to a robust recovery due to technological progress, but this approach may not be effective in today’s context. Today, printing money can lead to inflation in the wrong places, such as commodities, while wages experience deflation, leading to a decline in real wages.

The Need for Innovation and Technological Advancement:
To escape the Hobson’s choice, there is a need to focus on innovation and technological advancement. Technology can provide solutions to address energy challenges, increase agricultural productivity, and lead to overall progress. By doing more with less, technology can help overcome the current stagnation and lead to a more sustainable and prosperous future.

The Changing Landscape of Innovation:
The speaker emphasizes the significance of distinguishing between basic science and its practical applications. Connectivity has evolved, affecting how people communicate and perceive their well-being. Rapid advancements in fields like neuroscience and artificial intelligence highlight the potential for ongoing innovation.

Technological Advancements:
The speaker mentions the example of chess-playing programs, showcasing the sophistication of artificial intelligence. Nanotechnology is another area where exciting developments are taking place, particularly in the creation of new materials.

Economic Considerations:
While economic growth is important, the speaker questions whether perpetual growth is necessary or desirable. Environmental concerns and social stability should be considered alongside economic progress. Government policies play a crucial role in supporting research and development, especially in areas where private sector involvement is limited.

The Importance of Basic Science and Research Funding:
Basic science, often driven by curiosity rather than immediate practical applications, has historically led to significant breakthroughs. Retrenchment in funding for basic science, such as through the National Science Foundation, is seen as problematic. The decline of organizations like Bell Labs and the Defense Department’s involvement in research is also concerning.

Policy Factors Affecting Innovation:
Monopoly policies can hinder innovation, and changes in patent policies have impacted the pace of innovation in the life sciences. A simpler tax system, such as a flat tax, is suggested as a means to promote innovation.

Speaker’s Personal Perspective:
The speaker expresses a desire for future generations to have better lives but questions the necessity of space travel as a measure of progress. The financial crisis is seen as a more pressing concern than obstacles to innovation.

Questions and Discussion:
A question is posed about the feasibility of returning to the 1972 oil price level or developing clean technologies that can achieve this goal. The speaker responds by emphasizing the need for sustained government investment in research to make oil obsolete. Another question addresses the value of inventions that have greatly improved human lives, such as running water and electricity.

Technological Advancements:
While technology has improved, politics have struggled to keep up with the rapid pace of change. Politicians reflect public opinion and may be unwilling to take risks. Significant inventions of the past, like those from the 1950s and 1960s, have had long-lasting impacts.

Government’s Role in Innovation:
Governments can facilitate technological progress. NASA’s budget of $750 billion over 55 years has yielded substantial returns. Space exploration can lead to practical technologies that benefit everyday life.

Space Exploration and Supersonic Flight:
The US relied on Soviet rockets in 2011, highlighting the global nature of innovation. Supersonic flights were envisioned in the 1950s and 1960s, but progress has been slow. Wealth provides a glimpse into the future, as seen with free phone calls.

Wealth and Technological Progress:
Wealthy individuals can experience technological advancements before they become widely available. The pace of technological change today may not be as dramatic as in the past, but it is still significant. Technological change is not the main factor behind current global economic challenges.

Understanding the Economic Transformation:
The discussion highlights the complacency in assuming that economic progress will continue as before, despite evidence of deceleration. The credit lending practices were based on the expectation of a better future that could repay past debts.

Wages Stagnation and Technological Advancements:
The panel addresses the question of why wages have not increased in the past 40 years, in contrast to the significant growth experienced in the previous 40 years. One explanation suggests that technology’s rapid pace and globalization have outpaced individuals’ ability to adapt their skills.

Crystal Growth Analogy:
The concept of “growing a crystal too quickly” is introduced to illustrate the potential consequences of rapid investment and spending. Such rapid growth can result in fragility and a lack of robustness.

Fake Growth and the Financial Crisis:
The panel points out that some of the past economic growth was “fake” and fueled by debt. This flawed growth contributes to the current financial crisis.

Sustainable Growth and Regional Disparities:
The discussion emphasizes the importance of time in fostering sustainable growth. The panel highlights the contrast in economic growth between developed regions like the US and emerging regions like Africa and Asia.