Peter Thiel (Facebook Board of Directors) – Big-Tech’s Failures and Self-Hatred (Jul 2020)
Chapters
00:00:10 COSM Technology Summit: Exploring the Interconnected World of Emerging Cutting-Edge Technology
Welcome and Introduction: Steve Burei, president of Discovery Institute, welcomed attendees to the inaugural COSM Technology Summit. COSM stands for “world,” and the summit explores the interconnected world of emerging cutting-edge technology. Attendees are encouraged to be cosmonauts and explore not only the technology but also the deeper philosophical questions it raises.
Summit Goals: To explore cutting-edge technology and the deeper philosophical questions it raises, such as implications for jobs, global competitiveness, and human creativity. To provide a platform for leading national experts to share their viewpoints and engage in discussions. To encourage attendees to ask tough questions and engage in back-and-forth discussions.
Appreciation for Speakers and Sponsors: Burei thanked the speakers who traveled from out of town and the sponsors who supported the summit financially, despite it being a first-time event. He recognized the Gold sponsor, Microsoft, and other sponsors listed in the packet provided to attendees.
Call for Engagement and Open Dialogue: Burei encouraged attendees to address questions to speakers, ask tough questions to their table mates, and engage in respectful discussions. He emphasized the importance of open dialogue and encouraged attendees to express their disagreements respectfully.
00:03:33 Exploring Innovation, Creativity, and Artificial Intelligence
Discovery Institute’s Background and Mission: Discovery Institute was founded in 1991 by Bruce Chapman and George Gilder. Headquartered in Seattle, the organization aims to advance a culture of purpose, creativity, and innovation. The institute believes in a purposeful universe and emphasizes the power of human creativity to solve problems. It also supports limited government and free markets as catalysts for innovation.
George Gilder’s Introduction: George Gilder, a co-founder of Discovery Institute, is known for his thought-provoking ideas and books. He has authored numerous books on topics such as wealth, poverty, technology, and the information economy. Gilder’s recent bestseller, “Life After Google,” explores the future of technology and society.
The Importance of Creativity and Opportunity: Gilder emphasizes the significance of pursuing opportunities rather than solving problems. He believes that focusing on problems leads to mediocrity and stifles innovation. Creativity, according to Gilder, is unpredictable and essential for economic progress.
Machines and Human Creativity: Gilder discusses the relationship between machines and human creativity. He asserts that machines cannot replace human creativity, but can amplify and extend human capabilities. Machines, as tools, enhance productivity and create new employment opportunities.
The Promise of Machines: Gilder highlights the potential benefits of machines in the modern economy. He believes that machines will not dominate or usurp humans but will empower them to be more productive and employable. Gilder emphasizes the importance of recognizing the distinct roles of machines and human minds.
Exploring Connectomes: Gilder introduces the concept of connectomes, which represent the connections in network systems. He points out that the internet has surpassed a zettabyte in total global connections and has several zettabytes of storage attached to it.
00:12:05 The Future of Technology: Centralization vs. Decentralization
Delusion of Silicon Valley: Human brain operates on 12-14 watts while the global internet consumes gigawatts, challenging the idea of a close relationship between the two. Hardware advancements are crucial for software technologies, and we’re at a point where printed circuit boards and cards may be eliminated.
Contrarian Ideas for the Future: Decentralization: The pendulum of centralization and decentralization swings back and forth. After centralization in 1969 and decentralization in 1999, we’re back to centralization in 2019. Thiel believes a shift back towards decentralization, more privacy, and libertarianism is possible. AI vs. Crypto: Crypto is seen as libertarian, while AI is centralized and totalitarian. Communist China’s embrace of AI and dislike of crypto highlights the potential dangers of AI. Thiel suggests Silicon Valley’s fascination with AI stems from its alignment with left-wing centralized ideology.
Progress in Technology: The rate of scientific and technological progress is often measured imprecisely. Consensus in Silicon Valley and academia suggests rapid progress, leading to utopian or dystopian visions of the future. Thiel proposes a contrarian view that progress may not be as fast as advertised. The advancement of bits (computers, internet, software) has outpaced atoms (physical world) in recent decades. Thiel suggests progress has slowed in many engineering fields since the 1970s due to regulation and other factors. The risk now is that progress in the world of bits is also slowing down. Silicon Valley’s charisma has diminished in recent years as the pace of innovation has decelerated.
Changing Narrative of Technological Progress: In 2014, there was a strong belief in the future of technology, with innovations like Google Glasses and self-driving cars being touted as game-changers. By 2019, however, this narrative had shifted significantly, with little talk of these innovations and a sense that progress had slowed down.
Technology Stagnation: The definition of “technology” has narrowed to primarily encompass information technology, particularly software and the internet. This shift has led to a slowdown in overall technological progress, as other areas such as rockets, aviation, and biotechnology have seen less advancement.
Dominance of Big Tech: The consolidation of the tech industry into a few large companies has made it more challenging for new companies to break through. This dominance has contributed to a decline in innovation, as smaller companies are often more agile and willing to take risks.
Potential Long-Term Stagnation: There is a risk that the current regime of big tech dominance and slow progress could continue for an extended period. This scenario would be similar to the life after television, where it took a long time for new technologies to emerge and gain widespread adoption.
Individual and Small Team Efforts: Ultimately, technological progress relies on individuals and small teams starting new companies and projects. Focusing on these individuals and teams, rather than relying solely on large corporations or historical trends, is crucial for driving innovation.
00:29:13 Silicon Valley and the Need for Decentralization
Life After Google: Thiel emphasizes the importance of human agency and the indomitability of the human spirit. He stresses that life goes on and that humanity continues to evolve despite technological advancements. Thiel believes that the focus should be on the positive impact of technology rather than solely on its negative aspects.
Monopoly and Regulation: Thiel acknowledges the antitrust and regulatory challenges faced by big tech companies. He argues that Silicon Valley needs to do a better job in addressing criticisms and demonstrating its positive contributions. Thiel cautions against excessive centralization and suggests that the alternative to Silicon Valley could be even more centralized Chinese communist tech companies.
Education Reform: Thiel compares the current university system to the Roman Catholic Church 500 years ago, criticizing its corruption and lack of innovation. He advocates for reform from the outside rather than within the existing system. Thiel suggests promoting alternative paths like the Thiel Fellowship program, which encourages students to stop out of college and start companies.
Deprogramming from the “Atheist Church”: Thiel criticizes the university system as an “atheist church” that promotes a centralized and dogmatic approach to education. He emphasizes the need to deprogram people from this cult-like mindset and encourage them to think independently. Thiel believes that this deprogramming is essential for fostering innovation and progress.
Future of Technology: Thiel highlights the potential of computers and technology to drive progress. He emphasizes the importance of programming and deprogramming in shaping the future of technology. Thiel suggests that the focus should be on creating a decentralized and more inclusive technological landscape.
Four Meanings of Education: Learning and information acquisition Investment in the future for a better outcome Consumption decision like a four-year party Insurance product to avoid societal cracks and financial burdens
Online Education and Its Limitations: Online education is valuable for learning but doesn’t correlate with the traditional educational system. Elite universities like Harvard and Stanford offer online classes without credit or degrees, indicating that education’s value lies beyond mere knowledge acquisition.
Zero-Sum Tournament Mentality: Elite universities operate like exclusive nightclubs, deriving their value from excluding people rather than imparting knowledge. Online classes from these institutions may provide access to information but lack the status, selection, and exclusion factors that contribute to their prestige.
Hayek’s Perspective on Education: Hayek believed that education should prioritize practical knowledge and skills over theoretical knowledge. He argued that education should focus on teaching individuals how to think and solve problems rather than memorizing facts.
Education’s True Value: Education should be viewed as a means to acquire knowledge and skills that can be applied to solve real-world problems and contribute to society. The focus should be on practical knowledge and critical thinking rather than memorizing facts and seeking status symbols.
00:42:57 Centralized Control of Money and Decentralized Cryptocurrencies
PayPal’s Origins: PayPal was inspired by the book “The Sovereign Individual” and the idea of decentralizing sovereignty and money. PayPal aimed to liberate people’s money from the control of central monetary authorities.
Bitcoin as the Real Decentralized Currency: Bitcoin is the realized form of the decentralized currency envisioned during PayPal’s early days. Thiel believes Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, attended a financial cryptography conference in Anguilla in early 2000.
Contrast to e-Gold: e-Gold was an early cryptocurrency that faced challenges due to criminal activity and central government attacks. Bitcoin’s architecture was designed to be more decentralized and resistant to central attack compared to e-Gold.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s Anonymity: Thiel believes Satoshi’s anonymity is crucial to Bitcoin’s history. Revealing their identity could lead to government interference or attacks.
China’s Competitive Threat: Chinese companies pose a competitive threat despite the Communist Party’s control. These companies excel at copying and scaling successful innovations from the West.
Creativity and Copying: Centralized totalitarian communism may not foster creativity, but it can facilitate copying. China’s strength lies in its speed and efficiency in copying Western innovations.
Importance of Innovation: Innovation is the key to maintaining a competitive edge, and the West still leads in this area. Protection of intellectual property and preventing exfiltration of information are essential for preserving Western advantages.
Technology and Thiel’s Investment Strategy: Thiel’s understanding of technology informs his investment strategy. He focuses on companies that are pushing the boundaries of innovation and have the potential to create transformative technologies.
00:51:31 Technological Influence on Social Dynamics
Dysfunctional Gender Relationships in the U.S. and the West: Peter Thiel believes that the popularity of Jordan Peterson stems from his politically correct approach to addressing the dysfunctional gender relationships prevalent in the U.S. and the West.
Technology as a Contributing Factor: Thiel acknowledges that certain aspects of technology, such as constant attention distraction, can contribute to social problems. However, he believes that the primary drivers of these issues are more complex and multifaceted.
Cultural Malaise and Stagnation: Thiel attributes the current social problems to a broader sense of cultural malaise, stagnation, and a lack of progress in society. This leads individuals to retreat into activities like playing video games or staying in graduate school, contributing to the perceived decline in personal relationships and societal fabric.
Solution: Economic Growth and Rejuvenation: Thiel proposes that the solution lies in restoring economic growth and progress. By revitalizing the economy, individuals will regain a sense of purpose and motivation, potentially alleviating the social and relationship issues that stem from cultural malaise.
Challenges and Opportunities: Thiel’s insights highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to addressing the current social challenges. While technology may play a role, the underlying issues are rooted in deeper cultural and economic factors. By addressing these fundamental problems, society can strive to foster healthier personal relationships and a more vibrant social fabric.
Abstract
The COSM Technology Summit: A Reflection on the Future of Innovation, Society, and the Human Brain
In the inaugural COSM Technology Summit, a compelling narrative unfolded, led by the insightful contributions of thought leaders and the ambitious mission of the Discovery Institute. This article, crafted in the inverted pyramid style, delves into the key themes and perspectives shared at the summit, highlighting the intricate dance between technology, human creativity, societal challenges, and the potential future paths of innovation.
Welcome and Introduction
Steve Burei, president of the Discovery Institute, welcomed attendees to the inaugural COSM Technology Summit. COSM stands for “world,” and the summit explores the interconnected world of emerging cutting-edge technology. Burei encouraged attendees to be cosmonauts and explore not only the technology but also the deeper philosophical questions it raises.
Leading the Charge: The Discovery Institute’s Vision
Steve Burei, president of the Discovery Institute, opened the summit with a strong emphasis on the institute’s core values: fostering a culture of purpose, creativity, and innovation. The Institute, since its inception in 1991, has championed the belief in a purposeful universe, the power of human creativity in problem-solving, and the unleashing of creativity through limited government and free markets. This foundational perspective set the stage for the summit’s discussions, underscoring the role of innovation in shaping our future.
George Gilder: Challenging Conventional Wisdom
George Gilder, a co-founder of the Discovery Institute, presented a paradigm-shifting viewpoint, focusing on pursuing opportunities rather than solving problems. He drew inspiration from Peter Thiel’s “Zero to One,” advocating for the creation of breakthrough technologies. Gilder’s emphasis on information theory, referencing Claude Shannon’s concept of information as surprisal, highlighted the irreplaceable role of human creativity in the age of machines.
The Internet and Connectomes: A New Perspective
Gilder’s exploration of connectomes, the networks underpinning systems like the internet, offered a novel lens to view technological growth. The internet, having surpassed a zettabyte in connections, exemplifies the rapid expansion and complexity of digital networks, paralleling the intricate nature of the human brain.
The Human Brain vs. Technological Complexity
The summit also ventured into the complexity of the human brain, juxtaposing it against the global internet. The brain’s efficiency, operating on minimal power yet rivaling the vast data network of the internet, highlighted the limits of current technology and the remarkable capabilities of biological systems.
The Evolution of Hardware and the Microcosm Revolution
A significant topic at the summit was the convergence of technology and finance, forecasting the elimination of printed circuit boards and complex wiring. This imminent transformation anticipates the rise of microcosm chips, heralding a new wave of technological innovation.
Peter Thiel’s Contrarian Insights
Peter Thiel brought a contrarian perspective, focusing on the cyclic nature of technological advancement. He emphasized the potential shift from a centralized future back to decentralization, privacy, and individual empowerment. Thiel also critiqued the current state of Silicon Valley, highlighting a cultural shift towards pessimism and stagnation.
Education: A Multi-faceted Paradigm
The summit addressed the multifaceted nature of education, exploring its various interpretations – from learning to a zero-sum tournament. Thiel’s call for educational reform, particularly through initiatives like the Thiel Fellowship, underscored the need for alternative paths to success beyond traditional academia.
Online Education and Its Potential
The role of online education was acknowledged for its proficiency in providing learning opportunities. However, the challenge lies in disentangling the true value of education from its entrenched social and economic constructs. Thiel, in his unique perspective, highlighted the limitations of online education and questioned its true value. He compared elite universities to exclusive nightclubs, suggesting that their prestige is derived from exclusion rather than knowledge impartation. Thiel advocated for a shift away from the zero-sum tournament mentality in education and a focus on acquiring practical knowledge and critical thinking skills.
Cryptocurrencies: The Vision and Reality
PayPal’s initial vision, as shared at the summit, was to challenge government control over money and promote individual sovereignty. Bitcoin emerged as the embodiment of this vision, offering a decentralized, censorship-resistant currency. The comparison with e-Gold illustrated the unique strengths and challenges in creating a robust digital currency. Thiel believes Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, attended a financial cryptography conference in Anguilla in early 2000 and that Bitcoin is the realized form of the decentralized currency envisioned during PayPal’s early days. He also emphasized the importance of Satoshi’s anonymity, as revealing their identity could lead to government interference or attacks.
China’s Competitive Edge and Intellectual Property Concerns
The summit didn’t shy away from discussing the competitive threat posed by China’s rapid copying abilities, controlled by the Communist Party. The importance of protecting intellectual property was emphasized as crucial for maintaining the West’s technological edge. Chinese companies pose a competitive threat despite the Communist Party’s control, as they excel at copying and scaling successful innovations from the West. Centralized totalitarian communism may not foster creativity, but it can facilitate copying. China’s strength lies in its speed and efficiency in copying Western innovations. Innovation is the key to maintaining a competitive edge, and the West still leads in this area. Protection of intellectual property and preventing exfiltration of information are essential for preserving Western advantages.
Addressing Societal Issues: Beyond Technology
Finally, the summit explored the broader societal challenges, acknowledging that technology is not the sole driver of societal issues. Cultural malaise, stagnation, and a lack of progress were recognized as contributing factors. Solutions proposed included promoting economic growth and encouraging individuals to engage in meaningful activities beyond the digital field. Thiel attributes the current social problems to a broader sense of cultural malaise, stagnation, and a lack of progress in society. This leads individuals to retreat into activities like playing video games or staying in graduate school, contributing to the perceived decline in personal relationships and societal fabric. He proposes that the solution lies in restoring economic growth and progress. By revitalizing the economy, individuals will regain a sense of purpose and motivation, potentially alleviating the social and relationship issues that stem from cultural malaise.
Looking Ahead with Optimism and Caution
The COSM Technology Summit served as a melting pot of ideas, visions, and warnings. It highlighted the intricacies of the human brain, the transformative potential of technology, and the importance of preserving creativity and innovation in an increasingly complex world. While the challenges are many, the summit’s discussions fostered a sense of cautious optimism about the future, underlining the need for a balanced approach that values both human ingenuity and technological advancement.
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