Peter Thiel (Facebook Board of Directors) – The World According to Thiel | Hoover Institute (Feb 2020)
Chapters
00:00:07 China's Continued Revolutionary Communism
China and the Failure of Democracy: Peter Thiel discusses the prediction of China’s transition to democracy around 2015 based on its economic growth, similar to patterns seen in South Korea and Taiwan. Thiel explains that China learned from the West’s mistakes, particularly the fall of the Berlin Wall, and adopted perestroika (economic reform) without glasnost (political openness). China has maintained this trajectory despite reaching a per capita GDP of close to $10,000, the point at which democracy was expected to emerge. Thiel draws a parallel between China and the French Revolution, suggesting that China aims to avoid a “Thermidor” or a period of moderation and return to normalcy, unlike the French and Russian Revolutions. Thiel interprets Chao Enlai’s famous statement about the French Revolution as a declaration that China will remain committed to revolutionary communism, resulting in ongoing genocidal policies under Xi Jinping.
Silicon Valley and the Thiel Fellowship: Thiel critiques Silicon Valley’s culture, describing it as deranged and characterized by a lack of skepticism and a belief in absurd ideas. He argues that the Thiel Fellowship, which encourages young people to drop out of college and start businesses, is a reaction to this culture and an attempt to promote independent thinking and risk-taking. Thiel believes that the fellowship allows young people to escape the indoctrination and groupthink prevalent in traditional educational institutions.
The State of the World and the Future: Thiel expresses concern about the future of democracy and freedom, particularly in the context of China’s rise and the decline of the United States. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the nature of power and the need for people to take responsibility for their own lives and futures. Thiel calls for a reassertion of American power and influence in the world, arguing that the United States must play a leadership role in promoting democracy and freedom.
Hayek and Friedman on Economic Freedom: Friedrich Hayek argues that a planning authority cannot possess the information necessary to run an economy, and competitive markets are essential for determining prices. Milton Friedman suggests that greater economic freedom leads to pressure for political freedom, as seen in China’s Tiananmen Square incident.
Peter Thiel’s Views on China: Peter Thiel believes China’s totalitarian regime may exhaust itself due to demographic challenges and people’s unwillingness to have children in such a society. He acknowledges that China may be able to achieve economic growth by copying Western models without complete political or economic freedom. Thiel downplays the impact of artificial intelligence as a game-changer, viewing it as a continuation of the computer revolution with more powerful Leninist controls.
Competing Narratives about China: One narrative portrays President Xi as centralizing power effectively with technology, making him the most successful dictator in history. Another narrative highlights China’s aging population, slowing economy, gender imbalance, and defensive position due to freedom movements in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Peter Thiel’s Conspiracy Theory: Thiel proposes that China is psychologically undermining the West by inducing two perspectives: China is either far behind or far ahead of the West. This extreme optimism and pessimism lead to inaction and denial, preventing the West from taking appropriate action. Thiel suggests that the reality is closer, with both strengths and weaknesses on both sides, and the competition will be long and challenging.
00:10:57 Challenges and Solutions to Zombie Socialism in the United States
China and US Relations: China’s growing strength has made other countries, such as Japan and Vietnam, more wary and drawn them closer to the US. China seeks to project both weakness and strength, which creates psychological impact but is logically inconsistent. The US serves as the center of resistance against China’s influence.
Socialism’s Resurgence: After the success of democratic capitalism and the Mont Pelerin Society’s principles, socialism is re-emerging with figures like Bernie Sanders. Sanders’ socialism is different from traditional socialism as it focuses on opposing zombie institutions rather than implementing a comprehensive socialist agenda.
Addressing the Root Causes of Socialism: The root causes of socialism’s resurgence lie in the generational problem of young people struggling to acquire capital. Runaway student debt and the difficulty of getting onto the housing ladder contribute to this issue.
Non-Socialist Solutions: Thiel proposes non-socialist solutions to these problems, such as internalizing the costs of student debt onto universities and making it easier for people to own homes.
Socialism’s Weakness: Thiel believes that socialism’s main strength is its critique of bad institutions. If Sanders becomes serious about implementing socialist policies, it would be as disastrous as Jeremy Corbyn’s attempt in the UK. Sanders cannot get elected due to the impracticality of his policies.
Universities: Michelle Obama’s statement highlights the importance of education in creating opportunities. Thiel emphasizes the need for universities to be more responsible for their students’ outcomes.
00:16:38 Universities, Political Correctness, and Silicon Valley's Derangement
Universities as Investment vs. Consumption: Peter Thiel argues that universities are viewed as both investments and consumption goods. They offer a path to career success and social mobility, but they also function as elite social clubs where admission is highly competitive. He believes that many students attend top universities not primarily for education but to avoid falling through society’s cracks or to gain status.
Harvard as a Studio 54 Nightclub: Thiel criticizes the exclusivity of elite universities like Harvard and Stanford, comparing them to exclusive nightclubs. He believes that the focus on prestige and selectivity leads to a limited enrollment and a lack of access for many qualified students.
Political Correctness and Conformity: Thiel highlights the prevalence of political correctness and ideological conformity in universities, particularly in the law schools of top institutions. He points out the lack of diversity of political views among professors and the consequences for those who hold contrarian opinions.
Silicon Valley’s Shift from Free Markets to Wokeness: Thiel observes a significant change in the culture of Silicon Valley in recent years. He criticizes its increasing focus on social justice and political correctness, which he believes detracts from the original spirit of free markets and entrepreneurship that once defined the region.
Limited Progress in Technology and Science: Thiel expresses skepticism about the extent of innovation and progress in technology and science over the past 50 years. He argues that many of the advancements have been incremental and that we have yet to see truly groundbreaking and transformative innovations.
00:21:20 The Shifting Landscape of Innovation in the Digital Age
Innovation in the Digital Realm: The rapid advancements in computer software, internet, and mobile internet over the past quarter-century have driven significant progress in the digital world. However, there may be fewer innovation opportunities in these areas as the “easy ideas” have been explored.
Challenges in Other Areas: Innovation in other fields such as biotech and futuristic sciences is deceptively difficult due to regulations and complexities. Large companies tend to dominate these areas, making it challenging for startups and small companies to emerge.
The Role of Startups in Innovation: During early innovative boom phases, such as the dot-com boom in the 1990s, startups and small companies play a crucial role in driving innovation. The political and slow nature of large corporations often hinders their ability to innovate quickly.
The Political Landscape in California: California has undergone a significant political shift from a 50-50 Republican Democrat state to a predominantly Democratic state. This shift may be influenced by factors such as the highly educated workforce in Silicon Valley, which tends to lean towards Democratic ideals.
Brainwashing and Education: The high level of education in Silicon Valley may contribute to a certain level of “brainwashing” or ideological conformity. This could potentially impact the political views and attitudes of the workforce.
Critique of Elizabeth Warren: Thiel criticizes Warren’s proposal to break up tech giants, claiming it’s unhinged and could be used as an argument to destroy them if she were elected.
Europe’s Three Visions of the Future: Thiel identifies three possible futures for Europe: Islamic Sharia law with burqas for women. Chinese communist AI surveillance. Green movement with e-scooters and recycling. He argues that these limited options leave many people supporting the green movement despite its shortcomings.
Rethinking American Exceptionalism: Thiel criticizes the doctrine of American exceptionalism, comparing it to the monotheistic God of Islam and Judaism, arguing that it prevents meaningful comparison and measurement. He suggests replacing exceptionalism with the concept of greatness, which involves comparative assessment against the past and other countries.
Intellectual Battle and Political Action: Thiel discusses the history of the Mont Pelerin Society, a group of intellectuals who committed themselves to winning the intellectual battle of ideas rather than engaging in political action. He acknowledges that the intellectual battle is ongoing and that the Overton window has shifted leftward, leading to a narrower range of acceptable ideas. Thiel suggests that the current environment may be more conducive to unconventional and outside-the-box ideas, as the old gatekeeping mechanisms have weakened.
00:32:13 Liberty Versus History: Is There a Future Beyond the Overton Window
Ideas and the Overton Window: Thiel believes we are in a long bear market for ideas and the Overton window is narrow. He sees positive returns on ideas as greater than in the last 50 years due to the intellectual constraints of universities and society.
Optimism and Pessimism: Thiel rejects extreme optimism and pessimism, emphasizing individual agency and the role of history and new ideas. He cautions against simplistic narratives of libertarian victories or definitive battles.
Greatness and the US-China Rivalry: Thiel agrees with George Kennan’s statement on the US measuring up to its best traditions to avoid destruction, but with caution. He emphasizes the differences between the Cold War and the US-China rivalry, occurring in an information age with deep economic connections. Thiel believes 2020 is unique, unlike previous years, requiring specific approaches rather than relying on simplistic templates.
Abstract
Navigating the Geopolitical Chessboard: Insights from Peter Thiel
The Dynamics of China’s Path and Global Influence
Peter Thiel, a prominent entrepreneur and intellectual, provides a nuanced analysis of China’s distinctive trajectory, particularly in the context of its failure to democratize despite significant economic growth. China’s path has defied expectations: it has achieved impressive economic growth, yet it remains an authoritarian state with no signs of political liberalization. Thiel attributes this to the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic learning from the Soviet Union’s collapse, opting for economic reforms without political openness. China’s per capita GDP, having reached $10,000, defies the expected emergence of democracy, especially under Xi Jinping’s leadership, instead moving towards greater authoritarianism.
Thiel draws historical parallels between China and the French Revolution, suggesting that the CCP aims to avoid a “Thermidor” scenario, a period of moderation post-revolution. This approach has led to sustained revolutionary zeal and, according to Thiel, genocidal policies. He further supports his argument with quotes from the Mont Pelerin Society’s icons, Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman, highlighting the unique blend of capitalist and socialist features in China’s governance.
AI, Demographics, and Control Systems in China
Thiel also explores the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in potentially bolstering China’s totalitarian regime through enhanced surveillance and control. He believes that AI, while a powerful tool, is not a game-changer in the field of control systems. He views it as a continuation of the computer revolution, enabling more powerful Leninist controls. Thiel also highlights China’s demographic challenges, including an aging population and gender imbalance, as potential catalysts for the regime’s downfall. Moreover, Thiel speculates on China adopting a hybrid control system, merging economic freedom in certain sectors with strict political control, to maintain stability.
Universities as Investment vs. Consumption:
Peter Thiel argues that universities are viewed as both investments and consumption goods. They offer a path to career success and social mobility, but they also function as elite social clubs where admission is highly competitive. He believes that many students attend top universities not primarily for education but to avoid falling through society’s cracks or to gain status.
Competing Narratives and Strategic Competition with the US
China’s global narrative, as Thiel observes, oscillates between portraying itself as lagging behind the West and being far ahead. He proposes that China strategically promotes these extremes to induce either complacency or despair in the West, hindering effective responses. Thiel emphasizes viewing the US-China relationship as a long-term strategic competition, warning against extreme views that could lead to inaction.
China’s Strategic Position and the Resurgence of Socialism in the US
Thiel perceives China’s strategic position as balanced against the US for the foreseeable future. He notes China’s contradictory messaging to the US, a psychological tactic to undermine resistance. Domestically, Thiel observes a resurgence of socialism in the US, exemplified by Bernie Sanders’ popularity, linking it to flaws in the capitalist system. He proposes non-socialist solutions, such as reforming student debt and housing policies, to address these challenges.
Harvard as a Studio 54 Nightclub:
Thiel criticizes the exclusivity of elite universities like Harvard and Stanford, comparing them to exclusive nightclubs. He believes that the focus on prestige and selectivity leads to a limited enrollment and a lack of access for many qualified students.
Political Correctness and Conformity:
Thiel highlights the prevalence of political correctness and ideological conformity in universities, particularly in the law schools of top institutions. He points out the lack of diversity of political views among professors and the consequences for those who hold contrarian opinions.
Critique of the Educational System and Silicon Valley
Thiel criticizes the role of universities in the student debt crisis and questions the value of their education. He compares the political correctness at top universities to North Korea’s oppressive regime. Additionally, Thiel notes a cultural shift in Silicon Valley, expressing skepticism about recent technological and scientific advancements and commenting on the shift from startups to larger companies due to various factors.
Silicon Valley’s Shift from Free Markets to Wokeness:
Thiel observes a significant change in the culture of Silicon Valley in recent years. He criticizes its increasing focus on social justice and political correctness, which he believes detracts from the original spirit of free markets and entrepreneurship that once defined the region.
Limited Progress in Technology and Science:
Thiel expresses skepticism about the extent of innovation and progress in technology and science over the past 50 years. He argues that many of the advancements have been incremental and that we have yet to see truly groundbreaking and transformative innovations.
Visions of the Future and American Exceptionalism
Thiel outlines three dominant future visions in Europe: accommodation with Sharia Law, Chinese Communist AI, and the Green Movement, with the latter gaining traction due to the absence of alternative visions. He questions American exceptionalism, advocating for a comparative approach to measure progress. Thiel underscores the significance of intellectual battles and the need for innovative ideas, emphasizing individual agency and the importance of the US-China rivalry in the information age.
Innovation in the Digital Realm:
The rapid advancements in computer software, internet, and mobile internet over the past quarter-century have driven significant progress in the digital world. However, there may be fewer innovation opportunities in these areas as the “easy ideas” have been explored.
Challenges in Other Areas:
Innovation in other fields such as biotech and futuristic sciences is deceptively difficult due to regulations and complexities. Large companies tend to dominate these areas, making it challenging for startups and small companies to emerge.
The Role of Startups in Innovation:
During early innovative boom phases, such as the dot-com boom in the 1990s, startups and small companies play a crucial role in driving innovation. The political and slow nature of large corporations often hinders their ability to innovate quickly.
The Chessboard of Modern Geopolitics
Peter Thiel’s insights paint a complex picture of the modern geopolitical landscape. His analysis of China’s unique path, the interplay of technological advancements and political dynamics, the critique of educational and economic systems, and the vision for the future highlight the intricacies of global politics. Thiel’s perspectives urge a balanced approach, encouraging innovative thinking and strategic action in navigating the challenges of our time.
The Political Landscape in California:
California has undergone a significant political shift from a 50-50 Republican Democrat state to a predominantly Democratic state. This shift may be influenced by factors such as the highly educated workforce in Silicon Valley, which tends to lean towards Democratic ideals.
Brainwashing and Education:
The high level of education in Silicon Valley may contribute to a certain level of “brainwashing” or ideological conformity. This could potentially impact the political views and attitudes of the workforce.
Critique of Elizabeth Warren:
Thiel criticizes Warren’s proposal to break up tech giants, claiming it’s unhinged and could be used as an argument to destroy them if she were elected.
Europe’s Three Visions of the Future:
Thiel identifies three possible futures for Europe:
– Islamic Sharia law with burqas for women.
– Chinese communist AI surveillance.
– Green movement with e-scooters and recycling.
He argues that these limited options leave many people supporting the green movement despite its shortcomings.
Rethinking American Exceptionalism:
Thiel criticizes the doctrine of American exceptionalism, comparing it to the monotheistic God of Islam and Judaism, arguing that it prevents meaningful comparison and measurement. He suggests replacing exceptionalism with the concept of greatness, which involves comparative assessment against the past and other countries.
Intellectual Battle and Political Action:
Thiel discusses the history of the Mont Pelerin Society, a group of intellectuals who committed themselves to winning the intellectual battle of ideas rather than engaging in political action. He acknowledges that the intellectual battle is ongoing and that the Overton window has shifted leftward, leading to a narrower range of acceptable ideas. Thiel suggests that the current environment may be more conducive to unconventional and outside-the-box ideas, as the old gatekeeping mechanisms have weakened.
Ideas and the Overton Window:
– Thiel believes we are in a long bear market for ideas and the Overton window is narrow.
– He sees positive returns on ideas as greater than in the last 50 years due to the intellectual constraints of universities and society.
Optimism and Pessimism:
– Thiel rejects extreme optimism and pessimism, emphasizing individual agency and the role of history and new ideas.
– He cautions against simplistic narratives of libertarian victories or definitive battles.
Greatness and the US-China Rivalry:
– Thiel agrees with George Kennan’s statement on the US measuring up to its best traditions to avoid destruction, but with caution.
– He emphasizes the differences between the Cold War and the US-China rivalry, occurring in an information age with deep economic connections.
– Thiel believes 2020 is unique, unlike previous years, requiring specific approaches rather than relying on simplistic templates.
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