Peter Thiel (Facebook Board of Directors) – Thiel (Feb 2017)

Chapters

Abstract

Reassessing Progress: A Critical Examination of Conservatism, Technology, and Societal Stagnation

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With technological advancements abounding yet unfulfilled promises looming, the conservative movement finds itself at a crossroads, re-evaluating its principles amid rapidly changing realities. This article explores the perspectives of prominent thinkers like Bill Buckley and Peter Thiel, examining conservatism’s response to societal disillusionment, technological stagnation, and economic challenges. It scrutinizes missed opportunities since the 1960s, Thiel’s critique of governmental policies, and their implications for the political and economic landscape. Ultimately, this analysis delves into the reasons behind the current stagnation in progress and the conservative movement’s response, uncovering the intricate relationship between technology, politics, and societal expectations.

Reaffirming Essential Truths:

At its core, conservatism emphasizes the reaffirmation of timeless principles, as championed by Bill Buckley. His call to challenge prevailing ideologies aims to spark impulses for change. This aspect underscores the conservative movement’s dedication to its foundational values, even in the face of changing times and unpopular opinions. It echoes Buckley’s plea to challenge established norms and bring “hammer blows against the bell jar” of dreamers.

Questioning Received Wisdom:

A vital component of conservatism involves the willingness to reassess assumptions in light of new realities. This principle, rooted in the legacy of Ronald Reagan, advocates for policies that blend timeless principles with contemporary contexts. It suggests a dynamic, adaptive approach to practical politics, acknowledging that the changing landscape of politics may necessitate adjustments to principles. Reagan’s hypothetical policy adjustments in today’s context are explored, emphasizing the need for adaptation and flexibility in the face of changing circumstances.

Technological Progress and Disillusionment:

Peter Thiel, a prominent voice in technology and innovation, highlights the stark contrast between past optimistic technological expectations and today’s reality. His insights mirror a broader societal disillusionment, as the dreams of flying cars and groundbreaking medical cures from the 1960s and 1970s remain unfulfilled. Thiel’s friend’s skepticism and hope for non-existence to avoid an unpleasant afterlife are discussed. The prevailing mood of uncertainty and dissatisfaction in the United States regarding the future is mentioned. The need for reflection on expectations and assumptions about technology and science is emphasized.

Missed Opportunities and Stagnant Progress:

This section analyzes the gap between past optimism and current reality. The stagnation in scientific and technological progress, evident in areas like transportation, energy, and medicine, has led to a sense of disillusionment. Key indicators include stagnant transportation speeds, the failure of energy innovation, and the slow pace of medical advancements.

Transportation:

Previously promising modes of transportation, such as flying cars, have failed to materialize, with travel speeds remaining unchanged since the 1960s. The decommissioning of the Concorde, a supersonic passenger jet, in 2003 marked a decline in aviation speed. Moreover, airport security systems have become increasingly time-consuming, further slowing down travel.

Energy:

The United States has yet to recover from the oil shock of the 1970s, with real energy prices comparable to the worst period of the Carter era. The nuclear industry has stagnated, and nuclear engineering is no longer a promising field of study. Alternative energy sources, such as cleantech, have failed to deliver on their promises and have become associated with financial losses.

Commodity Goods:

A famous bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich in the 1980s showed that commodity prices decreased in that decade. However, since 1993, commodity prices have been rising, indicating a reversal of the earlier trend. Food prices have escalated, and the green revolution of the 1950s and 1960s has stalled, leading to food shortages and contributing to events like the Arab Spring.

Medical Innovation:

The number of drugs going through the FDA approval process has decreased significantly in the past 20 years. Expectations for medical advancements have diminished, and ambitious goals like defeating cancer by the Bicentennial in 1976 have not been achieved.

Conservative Movement’s Response and Energy Issues:

The conservative response to these challenges emphasizes preserving core truths while adapting to new circumstances. This approach extends to energy and commodity issues, where the failure in innovation has led to higher prices and economic challenges, mirrored by the stagnation in the nuclear industry and the shortcomings of cleantech alternatives. Thiel’s support for the fracking revolution as a necessary alternative to failed renewable energy initiatives is mentioned. He acknowledges the risk of environmental regulations outlawing fracking and emphasizes the need to ensure logistical feasibility. While Thiel sees fracking as a necessary improvement, he questions whether it represents absolute technological innovation.

Diminished Expectations and Deceleration of Progress:

The overall slowdown in progress has resulted in diminished expectations for the future, evident in the unfulfilled war on cancer and other medical advancements. Thiel attributes this deceleration to cultural shifts and regulatory overreach, notably in sectors like aerospace and biotechnology.

Deceleration of Technological Progress:

Thiel observed a 40-year deceleration in technological progress, with stagnation in various areas, including Alzheimer’s research and innovative industries.

Causes of the Deceleration:

One argument is that all the easy ideas have been discovered, leading to a natural decline in progress. Thiel favors the cultural explanation, suggesting that we stopped trying and pursuing innovation. Moreover, heavy regulation in industries like aerospace, biotechnology, and nuclear power stifled progress.

The Unregulated Computer Industry:

The computer industry, with minimal regulation, experienced tremendous progress during the same period. However, Thiel argues that computers alone cannot solve all our problems and that progress requires freedom in the physical world as well.

Environmentalism and the Cartesian Dualism:

Thiel sees a form of environmentalism that allows manipulation of virtual information but prohibits changes to the real, material world. This separation, or Cartesian dualism, limits the economic value of technological advancements.

Libertarianism and the Republican Party:

Thiel’s libertarian perspective gains relevance in the face of stagnation, prompting the Republican Party to adopt a more nuanced view, balancing optimism with pessimism. He proposes a shift from Jack Kemp’s optimism to Ron Paul’s pessimism. Thiel’s libertarian stances, such as a less strict war on drugs, stem from a pessimistic view of society, evident in the legalization of marijuana as a response to the failure of the war on cancer. He considers libertarianism as the pessimistic thread within the Republican Party, skeptical of government action, foreign wars, and various interventions.

Income Inequality:

Thiel emphasizes the need to correctly diagnose the causes of income inequality, attributing it to misguided government policies rather than actions from the right. He sees income inequality as a bigger problem in a stagnant world, where policies preventing economic growth also contribute to rising inequality.

Technological Deceleration and Implications:

Thiel’s critique extends beyond technology to various societal aspects, emphasizing the slow pace of progress in areas like infrastructure construction. He advocates for microeconomic reforms to foster innovation and address economic challenges.

Bubbles and Economic Crises:

The innovation slowdown has fueled economic bubbles, such as the tech and housing bubbles, leading to credit crises and downturns. These bubbles reflect unrealistic expectations of progress in a world where innovation is lagging.

Bubbles and Expectations:

Bubbles occur when people have unrealistic expectations of progress and economic growth, eventually bursting when these expectations are not met.

The End of Bubbles:

The current government borrowing bubble is unsustainable and will eventually end, leading to a different perspective on various issues.

Political Implications and Technological Stagnation:

The stagnant economic environment challenges political parties, especially the Republican Party, whose core constituencies could be affected by wealth redistribution in a stagnant economy. Thiel criticizes the current administration for policies that favor the wealthy and neglect the middle and upper-middle class. He also sees a lack of focus on technological and scientific progress, setting it apart from traditional socialist or communist ideologies.

Conclusion and Thiel’s Perspective:

Peter Thiel warns of a looming, unsustainable bubble, urging recognition and mitigation of its potential consequences. He critiques the Obama administration for policies like Obamacare, which he views as transferring wealth from the middle class to the wealthy. Thiel’s analysis covers a range of topics, including healthcare, income inequality, libertarianism, and the need for policy changes in areas like energy deregulation, FDA abolition, and zoning reform. He emphasizes the political and economic implications of government policies and the importance of a nuanced approach to societal challenges.

Overall Theme and Policy Suggestions:

Thiel’s analysis covers a range of topics, including healthcare, income inequality, libertarianism, and the need for policy changes in areas like energy deregulation, FDA abolition, and zoning reform. He emphasizes the political and economic implications of government policies and the importance of a nuanced approach to societal challenges.

Final Thoughts:

This exploration offers a critical reflection on the conservative movement’s approach to technological and societal stagnation. It underscores the importance of reassessing principles and policies in the face of changing realities, highlighting the need for innovation, adaptation, and a balanced perspective on progress and its challenges.

Notes by: datagram