Peter Thiel (Facebook Board of Directors) – Make Ticker Tape Parades Great Again (Dec 2021)

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Abstract

“Peter Thiel’s Critique of Modern Society: A Deep Dive into Collectivism, Epistemic Closure, and the Future of Innovation”

In a comprehensive analysis of contemporary socio-political and economic trends, entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel articulates a profound concern for the shift towards collectivism and anti-individualism in the 21st century. Thiel, known for his heterodox perspectives, identifies a pervasive epistemic closure in various spheres – from science and journalism to economic policies and global governance. He highlights the suppression of dissent, especially in the context of COVID-19 policies and scientific discourse, and laments the erosion of intellectual diversity, citing instances like the controversy surrounding Stanford Professor Jay Bhattacharya and the decline of journalistic truth-telling. Furthermore, Thiel delves into the implications of such trends on global geopolitics, innovation, and the importance of individual action, offering a sharp critique of current practices and a call for a return to foundational values of liberty and open debate.

Article Body:

Suppressing Dissent and The Erosion of Scientific Discourse:

Peter Thiel critically assesses the current state of scientific discourse, emphasizing the dangers of suppressing heterodox thought. He cites the petition against Stanford Professor Jay Bhattacharya, who questioned the efficacy of mask mandates, as a prime example of ideological polarization and the stifling of scientific debate. Thiel underscores the necessity of nuanced discussion and the alarming trend of silencing contrarian viewpoints, especially evident during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Illustrating this point, Bhattacharya’s article questioning the effectiveness of mask-wearing triggered a frenzied reaction on Stanford’s campus. A petition demanding the university suppress Bhattacharya’s ability to speak and share his research gained traction. Bhattacharya, known for his rational and scientific approach, found himself embroiled in a highly nuanced and technical debate rather than a clash of ideologies. The lack of high-quality studies supporting mask mandates and the attempt to silence Bhattacharya suggest the possibility of his viewpoint being accurate.

Moreover, Thiel’s interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci in November reveals Fauci’s acknowledgment that the CDC only recommends masking in specific situations, further highlighting the dogmatic nature of COVID-19 policies.

Universities and large corporations promote a culture of avoiding triggers, causing self-censorship and limiting free speech. The consequence of this culture is a lack of critical questioning, course correction, and problem-solving.

Epistemic Closure in Various Domains:

Thiel explores the concept of epistemic closure across different fields. He criticizes the dogmatic approach of modern “science,” pointing out the irony in scientists’ self-perception as rationalists while often displaying a refusal to engage in open debate. This trend extends to economics, as seen in the declining influence of Milton Friedman’s principles and the rise of Modern Monetary Theory. Thiel connects this to broader cultural and political narratives, highlighting the failure of nation-building in Afghanistan and the reluctance of American journalists to report honestly about the Soviet Union in the 1930s.

Thiel sees science becoming increasingly dogmatic and unstable, akin to the Catholic Church during the Middle Ages. The rapid policy shifts and contradictions surrounding COVID-19 are examples of this dogmatic instability.

Thiel also questions the wisdom of crowds, arguing that majorities are not always right. He points to biblical instances of the crowd being wrong and asserts that both reason and revelation suggest skepticism toward crowd wisdom.

Thiel contends that science must strike a balance between excess dogmatism and excess skepticism. He believes that the current scientific landscape is dominated by dogmatism, leading to the suppression of debate and evidence. This has led to the misuse of the term “science” to silence criticism and promote fields like climate science or political science as scientifically valid despite their uncertain nature.

Epistemic closure occurs when institutions refuse to acknowledge evidence that contradicts their existing beliefs. The Federal Reserve, responsible for maintaining the currency, exhibited epistemic closure by denying the reality of rising inflation. Inflation is a common-sense issue that individuals can observe in their daily expenses, making the Fed’s denial particularly striking. When institutions like the Fed fail to acknowledge reality, it raises questions about their credibility and competence. Ignoring problems leads to a lack of accountability and hinders finding solutions.

Milton Friedman’s theory that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and his critique of 1960s-1970s economic policies were widely accepted. Today, his ideas seem almost forgotten, and a new monetary theory, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), has gained popularity. Economics can be politicized, and twisting economic theories can lead to strange outcomes. MMT’s emphasis on money printing and deficit spending gained traction during the Obama era. Economics is not an exact science, and there is always some slippage. The credit system’s impairment during the 2008 financial crisis offset the inflationary effects of extra money printing. MMT ignores the velocity of money, which affects inflation. Central banks face a dilemma between stopping money printing to curb inflation and risking recession due to COVID-19 restrictions. This dilemma may lead central banks to adopt theories like MMT to justify their actions. The lack of dissent within the Fed raises concerns about the validity of its decisions.

Davos: A Place Without Dissent:

Thiel criticizes the World Economic Forum in Davos, saying that it lacks dissenting views and fails to seek truth. He believes the center-left politically correct ideology dominates Davos and that the pursuit of efficiency and global governance comes at the cost of individuality and heterodox views.

China’s Transformation and Innovation Deficit:

Thiel offers a critical view of China’s shift from a communist regime to a more totalitarian model, drawing parallels with Putin’s Russia. He questions China’s ability to foster genuine innovation, likening it to Japan’s experience in the 1980s. This leads to a discussion on the geopolitical implications of China catching up with the U.S. technologically, without leading in innovation.

China’s Shift from Communism to Totalitarianism:

Thiel argues that China has shifted from a communist regime to a worse communist regime under Xi Jinping. He believes that China’s current system is far more totalitarian, with individuals, especially successful ones like Jack Ma, being suppressed. Thiel asserts that the Chinese development path since 2013 is very different from its previous trajectory, with Xi prioritizing his personal power rather than the well-being of the country as a whole.

Ray Dalio’s View on China’s Human Rights Violations:

Peter Robinson discusses Ray Dalio’s defense of China’s human rights violations, comparing China to a family with strict parents. Thiel disagrees with Dalio’s perspective, arguing that China’s system is more totalitarian and that its economic success does not justify its human rights abuses.

The Decline of Individualism in the United States and the Role of Journalism:

Reflecting on the decline of individualism in the U.S., Thiel and Peter Robinson discuss the transition from a society celebrating individual achievements to one embracing collectivism. Thiel emphasizes the importance of truth-telling in journalism, critiquing the lack of honest reporting on critical issues like the situation in Afghanistan, and advocating for a more gonzo journalism approach.

In the context of Afghanistan, Thiel highlights the misconception of the nature of science and journalism. He argues that the chaotic retreat from Afghanistan was a result of 20 years of epistemic closure and tactical mistakes. The withdrawal was influenced by lies about nation-building and progress, exemplified by absurd examples like the State Department funding art lessons on Duchamp’s The Toilet. Dissenting voices, such as President Trump’s blunt assessment of Afghanistan as an “expletive country,” were ignored.

Thiel also criticizes the lack of truth in journalism, especially in the case of American journalism during the Soviet Union’s 30s. He points out that many journalists lied to the public, presenting a rosy picture of communism while ignoring the atrocities. A few journalists, like Malcolm Muggeridge, told the truth about the horrors in Russia, but their voices were often drowned out. In the case of Afghanistan, the media largely avoided discussing the failures and corruption, engaging only in politically correct and polite conversations.

Renewal and Individual Action:

In his conclusion, Thiel advocates for individual action as a means of societal renewal. He encourages talented individuals to consider politics or government roles to counteract the current lack of capable leadership. Thiel’s advice to undergraduates reflects his belief in the power of individual choice and the potential impact of starting companies or engaging in political activism.



In this wide-ranging critique, Peter Thiel not only dissects the prevailing trends of collectivism, suppression of free speech, and epistemic closure in various domains but also provides a roadmap for renewal through individual action and open debate. His insights offer a stark reminder of the importance of intellectual diversity and the role of individual agency in shaping a vibrant, truth-seeking society.

Notes by: Random Access