Peter Thiel as a Public Intellectual:
Peter Thiel is considered one of the greatest and most influential public intellectuals of our time, with a profound impact on society.

Purpose of the Conversation:
The dialogue aims to focus on Peter Thiel’s perspectives as a public intellectual, departing from the usual chatty and drawn-out interviews. The goal is to replicate a quick and insightful conversation between Peter and Tyler, exploring various topics.

Tyler’s Questions for Peter:
Addressing the issue of technological stagnation, Tyler asks Peter how we can overcome the Great Stagnation and reignite technological progress.

Stagnation and the Divide Between Bits and Atoms:
Peter Thiel distinguishes between the world of atoms (physical world) and bits (digital world). Stagnation has been observed in the world of atoms, while significant innovation has occurred in the world of bits. Factors contributing to this divide include regulations, cost differences, and over-determination.

Attempts to Overcome Stagnation:
Thiel believes in finding ways for people to succeed at the margin rather than seeking regulatory changes. The history of success or failure in specific areas influences innovation and discourages or encourages people from pursuing certain fields.

Potential Breakthroughs to End Stagnation:
Thiel sees opportunities at the boundary of information technology and atoms, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and fusion. The self-driving car is mentioned as a potential innovation that could impact the margins.

The Role of Human Agency and Complacency:
Thiel disagrees with the idea that the future is fixed and believes in the significance of human agency in shaping it. The decline of mainline Protestantism and changes in worldviews are discussed as potential factors influencing intellectual complacency.

Government’s Role and Private Sector Coordination:
Thiel expresses pessimism about government’s ability to reverse stagnation. He highlights the challenges of large-scale coordination and suggests that Silicon Valley startups and larger companies could play a role.

Energy Prices and Fracking:
Thiel acknowledges the recent collapse in energy prices, particularly oil, and its implications for fracking. The equilibrium price for fracking to remain viable is questioned.

Thiel’s View on the Fracking Industry:
At the time of the interview (2014), the fracking industry was booming, but Thiel questioned its innovation and returns compared to the IT sector. He believed that the success of fracking at higher oil prices might not hold up at lower prices, raising concerns about its long-term viability.

Intellectual Curiosity and Non-Conformity:
Thiel emphasizes the importance of asking challenging questions and seeking unconventional answers. He uses the example of the question, “Tell me something true that very few people agree with you on,” as an effective interview question. Thiel highlights the difficulty in expressing controversial ideas due to social conformity and fear of judgment.

Questioning the Education System:
Thiel acknowledges that criticizing the university system is no longer a radical idea. He cites an article where a writer expressed concern about the education system and received overwhelming support in the comments. Thiel suggests that truly controversial ideas are those he is reluctant to share due to potential backlash.

Monopoly as a Goal of Successful Businesses:
Thiel believes that the ultimate aim of every successful business is to achieve a monopoly. He argues that monopolies can lead to greater efficiency and innovation, benefiting consumers in the long run.

Tyler Cowen’s Interpretation of Thiel’s Thought:
Cowen proposes that Thiel’s ideas can be understood through the lens of “original sin,” a concept that emphasizes the inherent flaws and distortions in human nature. He suggests that Thiel sees society as deeply distorted, leading to conformist mediocrity and a suppression of divergent thinking. Cowen believes that a small group of people can see through these distortions and become successful entrepreneurs or political truth-tellers.

Thiel’s Response to Cowen’s Interpretation:
Thiel agrees with Cowen’s analysis to some extent, but he places original sin more in society than in individuals. He emphasizes the reality and power of society as a collective entity that shapes individual behavior and outcomes.

Social Convention and Innovation:
Peter Thiel observes that strict adherence to social convention can hinder innovation and creativity. He believes that individuals who question and challenge conventional wisdom are often the driving force behind progress. Thiel suggests that certain individuals, particularly those with mild Asperger’s, may be less susceptible to social pressure, allowing them to pursue their unique ideas.

Personal Experience with Conformity:
Thiel shares his own experience of growing up in a highly competitive environment, where he felt pressure to conform to societal expectations. He underwent a “quasi-conversion experience” in his mid-20s, realizing the flaws in the conventional value system and the need to challenge it.

Different Modalities of Challenging Convention:
Thiel identifies two ways of challenging convention: The “Asperger way” involves being oblivious to social convention and pursuing one’s interests relentlessly. Another approach involves becoming aware of the constraints imposed by convention and consciously breaking free from them.

The Changing World and Neurodiversity:
Tyler Cowen suggests that the contemporary world is becoming more diverse and shaped by individuals who are different, leading to more unexpected changes. Thiel expresses concern that conformity may still be more prevalent today than in the past, with less space for eccentric scientists and professors.

Judging Talent and Undervalued Traits:
When selecting individuals for his Thiel fellowships or companies, Thiel looks for combinations of unusual traits. He seeks individuals who are both stubborn and open-minded, idiosyncratic yet capable of working well in teams.

Social Functioning and Execution:
Thiel emphasizes the importance of assessing an individual’s ability to function socially and execute their ideas successfully. He suggests that a long prehistory of collaboration and teamwork can be a positive indicator of an individual’s ability to navigate social dynamics.

Straussian Reading of “Zero to One”:
Tyler Cowen mentions that someone asked Thiel about the Straussian reading of his book “Zero to One” and Thiel responded that the Straussian reading would be “don’t be an entrepreneur.” This highlights the tension between societal expectations for conservative career choices and the need for individuals to break free from convention to pursue entrepreneurial ventures.

Entrepreneur as a Vague Term:
Thiel expresses skepticism about the term “entrepreneur” due to its broad and unclear definition. He compares it to general aspirations like becoming rich or famous, lacking specific direction.

Straussian Reading of Zero to One:
Thiel’s book, Zero to One, offers advice on building a business, but it can also be interpreted as discouraging people from pursuing entrepreneurship. The core advice to start a monopoly-oriented business may discourage those without such ideas, leading to the argument that not all should start businesses.

Starting Good Businesses vs. More Businesses:
Thiel emphasizes the importance of starting good businesses rather than simply increasing the number of businesses in general. He believes in focusing on quality over quantity and discouraging the creation of bad businesses.

Tech Bubble Comparison:
Thiel does not see a tech bubble similar to the one in 1999-2000, as the public is not as involved. He is less concerned about a bubble today compared to the dot-com era.

Advice for a Well-Educated Worker:
Thiel is hesitant to provide general advice for a well-educated worker in their mid-30s. He warns that a general answer would likely be incorrect, as it would be followed by too many people, making it ineffective.

IT Workforce Shortage:
Thiel observes a shortage of skilled workers in the IT industry. He suggests that individuals with talent can acquire training in software and coding relatively quickly to fill this gap.

Career Choices:
Peter Thiel encourages more individuals to pursue computer programming and petroleum engineering as viable career options, despite societal perceptions that may undervalue these fields.

Stagnation in Innovation:
Thiel believes that stagnation in innovation is prevalent in various domains, including technology, science, and artistic endeavors. He acknowledges the difficulty in measuring qualitative aspects of innovation, such as artistic output. Thiel posits that Hollywood produces fewer great movies compared to past decades, while TV shows have experienced an upsurge in popularity. He suggests that technological and scientific innovations may also be experiencing a decline, though this is challenging to quantify.

Japan’s Cultural Innovation:
Thiel’s recent trip to Japan revealed a surprising observation: Japan may be the least conformist and imitative country in the world. He challenges the common perception of Japan as a hyper-imitative culture, suggesting that it now exhibits a vibrant and innovative aesthetic culture. Despite economic challenges, Japan continues to produce interesting and creative cultural output.

Japan’s Changing Attitude Towards the West:
Japan is no longer eager to copy the West as it did during the Meiji restoration or in the 1950s. The country has seen a decline in English learning and a decrease in interest in Western trends. Golf courses are being shut down and converted to other uses, reflecting a shift in cultural preferences.

Critique of Western Society:
Thiel views Japan’s changing attitude as a critique of Western society. He suggests that the West has become less desirable for Japan to imitate.

Overrated and Underrated Elements of Western Society:
Thiel considers John Maynard Keynes to be overrated, although not as much as in the past. He views New York City as massively overrated due to the decline of the finance boom and increasing regulations.

Long Short Blue State Trade:
Thiel recommends being long California and short New York in a long short blue state trade. This reflects his belief that inward-focused states like California and Texas will perform better than globalization-dependent states like New York and Virginia.

Globalization in Decline:
Thiel predicts that globalization will slowly decline in the coming years. He sees 2007 as the peak year of both the finance boom and globalization, drawing parallels to 1913.

Globalization’s Impact on Trade:
Before 2007, trade increased at a rate three times higher than world GDP. Post-crisis, trade and world GDP grew at about the same rate, indicating a potential peak in globalization-driven growth.

Japan and France:
Thiel suggests undervaluing Japan and being relatively long on it. He is skeptical about France but acknowledges that it might be undervalued due to its anti-globalization stance and potential tax rate reduction.

China’s Growth and Investment:
Thiel finds it challenging to evaluate China’s economic growth due to its export-driven nature and capital controls. He notes that discussions about China overtaking the U.S. have decreased in recent years. Thiel believes that China may be underestimated but emphasizes the difficulty of investing there without strong connections to the Chinese Communist Party.

Brazil’s Inward-Looking Culture:
Brazil tends to be inward-looking, with Brazilian music commonly played on buses instead of American pop music. Facebook’s expansion illustrates this inward-looking nature, as it faced challenges in penetrating Brazil compared to English-speaking countries and smaller European countries where English is prevalent. Brazil’s unique language, Portuguese, contributes to its self-contained nature.

Brazil’s Economic History and Ties to Globalization:
There have been four periods of hyper-bullish sentiment towards Brazil’s economy in the past 150 years, often linked to its potential for integration into globalization. However, these periods of optimism have been followed by disappointment when the expected benefits of globalization failed to materialize.

The Case of OGX and Challenges in Brazil’s Energy Sector:
The story of OGX, an energy company that experienced a dramatic rise and fall, highlights the challenges associated with Brazil’s inward-looking approach. OGX’s offshore oil concessions, initially seen as a promising investment, faced difficulties due to the lack of Brazilian oil service companies and potential fraud. Such cases underscore the complexities of Brazil’s economic integration and the need for realistic assessments of its potential.

Facebook’s Expansion and Brazil’s Inward-Looking Nature:
Facebook’s expansion patterns provide further evidence of Brazil’s inward-looking nature. The company faced greater challenges in penetrating Brazil compared to other countries due to language barriers and cultural differences.

Company Names:
Peter Thiel emphasizes the importance of company names, stating that they can be predictive of future success or failure. He cites “PayPal” as a positive example, suggesting it conveys friendliness and assistance. He criticizes “Napster” as a negative example, implying it sounds like an illicit activity. He praises “Airbnb” for its innocent and non-threatening image, contrasting it with “Uber,” which he associates with a potentially negative connotation.

Life Expectancy:
Thiel discusses his maximum likelihood estimate of when he will die, acknowledging that it depends on advancements in life expectancy. He extrapolates from historical data that he could potentially live to be 100 to 110 years old, but recognizes the uncertainty and variability in this prediction. Thiel highlights the importance of innovations in life expectancy and emphasizes that stagnation in progress could lead to lower life expectancy gains.

Favorite Novel:
Thiel names “Lord of the Rings” as his classic favorite novel, appreciating its epic and imaginative qualities. He also mentions “The Master and Margarita” by Bulgakov as a more intellectual favorite, finding it intriguing for its portrayal of the devil in Stalinist Russia.

Religious Influence:
Thiel expresses a preference for the New Testament over the Old Testament, acknowledging the subject to interpretation. He emphasizes the complexity and ambiguity of Christ’s teachings, suggesting that many of his statements were indirect and parabolic to avoid persecution. Thiel draws a connection between Christ’s teachings and the Straussian interpretation of Christ, highlighting the need for caution and secrecy in expressing certain ideas.

Future Focus:
Thiel acknowledges that he does not set a rigid top-down agenda for his thinking. He prefers to let ideas and questions emerge naturally, allowing them to shape his focus in the coming year or two.

Entrepreneurship and Innovation:
Thiel emphasizes the importance of focusing on substance rather than status, avoiding the temptation to seek respectability at the expense of softening one’s message. He advises against following a set agenda and instead engaging with interesting people and exploring new technologies to gain diverse perspectives and change one’s mind. Thiel highlights the difficulty of creating vertical progress (innovation) compared to horizontal progress (globalization), emphasizing the unique and idiosyncratic nature of innovation. He suggests aligning one’s passion with one’s skills and identifying areas where others are not active to increase the chances of success.

Advice for Nonprofits and Political Advocacy Groups:
Thiel poses the “contrarian non-profit question”: What great cause is no one championing? He suggests that successful nonprofits should focus on addressing issues that are neglected or overlooked by others, thereby creating a unique and impactful niche. Thiel emphasizes the need for nonprofits to be bold and willing to take risks, as well as to measure their success based on their ability to achieve meaningful change.

Audience Q&A:
Thiel responds to questions from the audience on creating vertical progress, suggesting that passion, skill alignment, and identifying underserved areas are key factors. He also discusses the importance of being contrarian in the nonprofit sector, focusing on neglected causes and taking risks to achieve meaningful change.

Unpopular Causes and Counterfactual Sense of Mission:
Peter Thiel believes in supporting unpopular causes, assuming that popular causes receive adequate funding. He emphasizes the importance of pushing good, worthwhile, but unpopular causes, despite the challenge of marketing and securing funding. Nonprofits often support conventional causes that receive funding, even if many other organizations could do the same. Thiel suggests maintaining a counterfactual sense of mission, ensuring that the organization’s work would not be done by anyone else if they didn’t do it.

Social Entrepreneurship and Meaningful Contributions:
Thiel differentiates mission-oriented businesses, which have a counterfactual sense of importance, from social entrepreneurship. He cautions against using the term “social” ambiguously, as it can mean either good for society or good as perceived by society. Thiel criticizes the trend of Me Too clones, where social entrepreneurship loses its raison d’etre due to imitating popular causes.

Response to a Question on Meaning and Contribution for Individuals of Modest Cognitive Ability:
Thiel refrains from answering the question about individuals he admires with average or modest intelligence, fearing that he might offend people. He suggests that there are many things people with modest cognitive abilities can do that are striking and important.

Unexplored Career Opportunities:
There are many unexplored vocational careers that offer good earning potential but are often considered uncool or lacking prestige. The average plumber makes about the same as the average medical doctor. Thiel emphasizes the importance of considering these unfashionable career paths as they can provide significant opportunities for success. Smarter people may be more susceptible to trendy and fashionable thinking, leading them to overlook these underexplored career options.

The Future of Human Evolution and Societal Structure:
Thiel is presented with a bold statement about the future of human evolution and society, involving privately funded and managed for-profit cities. These cities would be built in partnership with but independent from governments. The question is posed to Thiel and Dr. Cohen about what is needed to gain their support for this vision.

Thiel’s Response:
Thiel acknowledges the potential benefits of such a concept but emphasizes the importance of evaluating its feasibility from a business perspective. He expresses excitement about the possibility of reopening the frontier, suggesting a desire to explore new and transformative ideas.

Micro-States:
Thiel is interested in the concept of private cities or micro-states as a way to innovate on society. Cowen is skeptical of the feasibility of truly independent micro-states and believes that larger political units with pockets of diversity may be more conducive to liberty.

Democracy and Innovation:
Thiel expressed disillusionment with democracy as a source of innovation in 2009, suggesting that democracy and capitalism may not be compatible. In an updated view, Thiel argues that we do not live in a true democracy but rather a system dominated by unelected technocratic agencies. Thiel questions how an advanced technological society can function in a more Republican or Democratic manner.

Sclerotic Agencies and Alternatives:
Thiel criticizes the Federal Reserve and other agencies for their sclerotic and non-functioning nature. However, he acknowledges that the alternatives, such as congressional involvement in Fed policy, may be even worse.

New Zealand as a Democratic Model:
Cowen suggests New Zealand as a potential model of a democratic country due to its adaptability and lack of constitutional constraints. Thiel agrees that smaller countries can have advantages in terms of adaptability and change.

Importance of Culture and Size:
Thiel emphasizes that the form of government is not the only factor determining the success of a society. He highlights the importance of culture, size, and the ability to change quickly.

Globalization’s Future:
Thiel predicts globalization’s decline and suggests relocating to a remote location halfway between New Zealand and Tahiti.

Government Investment in Technology:
Thiel critiques the US government’s poor investment in science and technology. He highlights the decline in technocratic competence, especially since the 1970s. Thiel emphasizes the need for government officials to possess a solid understanding of science and technology.

Solyndra Bankruptcy:
Thiel criticizes the government’s investment in Solyndra, a solar energy company that went bankrupt. He argues that basic geometry could have demonstrated the technology’s inefficiency.

Libertarian Utopia and Money:
Thiel downplays the significance of specific currencies, like Bitcoin or PayPal, in his vision of a libertarian utopia. He emphasizes the importance of real economic factors and regulations over monetary issues. Thiel favors linking money to something tangible, such as the equity market, rather than solely relying on fiat currency.

Indonesia’s Underrating and Terrorism:
Thiel suggests that Indonesia’s diversity may be better addressed with decentralization. He recognizes the complexity of the terrorism issue in Indonesia and calls for more intelligent and innovative solutions.

Lifespan Extension:
Thiel views life as inherently valuable and prefers to live longer, regardless of his life mission. He finds the idea of death inherently undesirable.

Life Extension:
Thiel expresses surprise at the lack of enthusiasm for life extension, arguing that people should want to live longer for its own sake. He criticizes the common psychological approach to mortality, which oscillates between acceptance and denial, leading to inaction.

Inequality:
Thiel questions the premise that inequality is rising globally, suggesting that it may be increasing in the US but not worldwide. He sees globalization as a more significant factor in inequality than technology. Thiel argues that many proposed remedies for inequality, such as higher marginal tax rates, are worse than the disease, leading to unintended consequences and potentially harming the middle class more than the wealthy. He suggests focusing on stagnation, rather than inequality, as the root cause of people’s dissatisfaction.

AI and Technological Progress:
Thiel expresses skepticism about the imminent arrival of artificial intelligence, believing it is further away than commonly thought. He criticizes the conventional narrative that rapid technological progress is leading to job displacement and inequality, arguing that the impact of AI may be overstated. Thiel points to self-driving cars as an example of a technology that, while significant, would not be transformative if phased in over a decade.

Changes in the Practice of Science:
Thiel laments the decline in the practice of science, attributing it to the politicization of the system. He argues that the influx of government funding in the 1930s to 1960s came at the cost of subtly politicizing the scientific ecosystem. Thiel believes that good scientists, who are interested in the truth, have been replaced by individuals skilled in writing government grant applications. He emphasizes the difficulty for the public to fully appreciate this corruption due to the extreme specialization of science and the self-reinforcing expert communities that have emerged.

Excessive Invocation of Science:
Thiel warns against the excessive invocation of science as an incantation or a way to bluff. He points to fields like political science and social science as examples where the word “science” is used excessively, suggesting skepticism is warranted in such areas.

Happiness of the Super Rich:
Thiel acknowledges that measuring the happiness of the super rich is subjective. He suggests that while they may have fewer worries about money, they also face challenges in relationships due to excessive wealth. Thiel questions the premise that subjective happiness should be the most important metric for evaluating things.