Overview of the Discussion:
In this conversation, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a renowned philosopher and essayist specializing in uncertainty, engages in a dialogue about the current era of uncertainty and its historical context.

Addressing Uncertainty:
Taleb emphasizes that uncertainty has always been a defining feature of human existence, and the current era is not exceptional in this regard.

The Illusion of Predictability:
He cautions against the tendency to perceive one’s own time as more unpredictable than previous eras, highlighting the filtering effect of time that makes the past appear more orderly than the present.

Historical Perspective on Pandemics:
Taleb draws attention to the common occurrence of pandemics throughout history, citing examples like Boccaccio’s writings during the Black Death. He expresses surprise that such a significant event took so long to happen in recent times.

The Black Swan Event:
Taleb considers the lack of major disruptions between the First and Second World Wars as a “Black Swan” event, given the increased connectivity and potential for global crises.

Republishing Works:
Taleb explains his decision to republish his works under the title “Uncertain” or “Incerto” in Italian, highlighting the significance of addressing uncertainty in our current era.

Incerto Series:
He mentions the expansion of his “Incerto” series to include five volumes, with one volume dedicated to technical aspects of uncertainty.

The Decision to Republish Works:
The author’s decision to republish all of their works stemmed from the realization that the ideas presented in “The Black Swan” were not fully explored. The author views all of their works as a single book with an extended appendix of technical papers, making it easier to manage and present their ideas.

Predictability and Unpredictability:
The author emphasizes that the future is not entirely unreadable and that certain aspects can be predicted. Events with a high dependence on rare occurrences, such as wars and pandemics, exhibit a degree of unpredictability. Innovation and technological advancements can also be considered unpredictable.

Black Swan Events:
The concept of the Black Swan is used to describe events that are completely unpredictable and have significant consequences. The internet and the digital revolution are examples of Black Swan events. Pandemics, on the other hand, are considered predictable events due to their historical occurrence and the increased vulnerability of modern society to them.

Asymmetry of Evidence:
The author highlights the logical problem associated with Black Swans, where the absence of evidence for an event does not confirm its non-existence. The statistical and scientific aspects of this asymmetry were not fully explored before the author’s work.

Domains of Uncertainty:
The author introduces the idea of separating domains based on the impact and consequences of uncertain events. Mediocrity domains involve events with extreme consequences but low impact, while extremist domains involve events with existential threats.

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty:
The author emphasizes the complexity of making decisions under uncertainty compared to certainty. The example of a potentially intoxicated pilot highlights the difficulty in making decisions when faced with uncertain information.

Uncertainty and Decision Making:
When faced with uncertain situations, opt for options with a higher potential for positive outcomes.

Negative and Positive Black 1:
We undervalue positive black 1 because we lack knowledge. To innovate, we need tools from the future, but having them already means we’ve achieved the innovation.

Antifragility and Disorder:
Antifragility focuses on how systems respond to disorder and unpredictability. If the potential upside outweighs the downside, unpredictability can be beneficial. Positioning oneself in trial-and-error situations can lead to positive outcomes.

Antifragile Businesses and Innovation:
Certain businesses thrive on uncertainty and luck, such as those involved in innovation. Example: Viagra was an unexpected blockbuster drug that improved the lives of older men.

Positioning for Uncertainty:
Position oneself to benefit from randomness and luck by adopting an anti-fragile approach.

Corriere della Sera and Antifragility:
The author quoted Corriere della Sera in his book Antifragile. The center of The Black Swan revolves around Dino Guzzati’s Il Deserto di Tartari.

Transforming Uncertainty into a Positive Viewpoint:
The author emphasizes the importance of embracing uncertainty and viewing it as an opportunity for growth and innovation.

Biological Adaptation and Mistake Rate:
Evolution benefits from disorder and uncertainty in reproduction. Mistakes or mutations can lead to positive adaptations and increased fitness. An optimal error rate is necessary to balance the benefits and costs of mistakes.

Trial and Error in Research and Business:
Research and business involve trial and error, where mistakes can lead to new discoveries and innovations. Asymmetric uncertainty can lead to anti-fragility, where mistakes don’t cost much but occasional successes can yield significant gains.

Organisms’ Response to Stressors:
Organisms deal with environmental uncertainty through stressors. Upregulation of genes and systems occurs in response to stressors, enhancing resilience and adaptation.

Anti-Fragility and Disorder:
Anti-fragile systems benefit from disorder and uncertainty, becoming stronger and more resilient. Fragile systems are harmed by disorder and uncertainty.

Example of Restaurant Industry:
High bankruptcy rates in the restaurant industry drive innovation and dynamism. Bankruptcy allows businesses to fail early and make way for new entrants, leading to a healthier industry overall.

Distinguishing Black Swans from Probable Events:
Black swans are events assigned zero probability or treated as having zero probability. Events with non-zero probabilities, such as pandemics, are not black swans. The impact of an event can vary depending on the perspective; what is a black swan for one party may not be for another.

Uncertainty and Black Swans:
Uncertainty is subjective and depends on an individual’s knowledge and perspective. A “black swan” event is one that is unexpected, rare, and has significant impact. For some individuals, an event may not be a black swan due to their knowledge or involvement, while for others, it may be a black swan due to their lack of information or analytical tools.

The Butcher, the Turkey, and Robust Societies:
For a butcher, the existence of a black swan is not surprising, while for a turkey, it is an unexpected event. A robust society is one that can withstand and adapt to black swan events. Decentralization is a key characteristic of a robust society, as it allows for diverse and flexible responses to unexpected challenges.

Italy’s Historical Context:
Italy has experienced periods of decentralization and centralization throughout its history. Prior to unification in the 19th century, Italy was characterized by frequent wars among city-states, but with relatively low casualties due to the involvement of professional soldiers. Following unification, Italy experienced significant casualties in World War I, highlighting the importance of building a robust society that can withstand large-scale conflicts.

The Robustness of City-States:
City-states are more robust and stable than centralized nation-states. They can withstand shocks and political turmoil better due to their decentralized nature. Italy’s decentralized history and lack of coups are examples of city-states’ resilience.

Centralization’s Double-Edged Sword:
Centralization streamlines processes but exacerbates problems, making them more severe and pervasive. Centralized entities, when they collapse, do so catastrophically, unlike decentralized systems that experience less severe failures. Steady income can indicate future bankruptcy for companies, as it signifies reliance on a fixed contract, while fluctuating income provides resilience.

Pseudo-Stability and Its Detection:
Stability is not always genuine, and pseudo-stabilities can exist, leading to sudden collapses. Detecting these pseudo-stabilities is crucial to anticipate potential breakdowns.

The Allure of Italy:
The speaker’s love for Italian language, culture, food, films, and literature is rooted in his Mediterranean heritage and sensibility. He finds Italian authors like Alberto Moravia particularly relatable due to shared cultural values.

The Perils of Salary Dependence:
People who rely on salaries are trapped in a lifestyle dictated by their income, fearing the loss of status and material possessions. This group, often found in the middle class, can be politically dangerous as they may support policies that preserve their jobs, even if they are detrimental to society. Guaranteed income, if implemented carefully, can help people become entrepreneurs and take financial risks.

STEM Education and Personal Choice:
The younger generation should be equipped with tools and skills, but they should be allowed to pursue their interests and passions. Educational systems should foster individual exploration and creativity, allowing students to find their own path.

Writing on Own Terms:
Nassim Taleb writes on his own terms, combining autobiography, tales, fictional characters, scientific discourse, and philosophy in his inserto series. He rejects the traditional structure and categorization of books, preferring to write freely without conforming to publisher expectations. Taleb believes in writing on one’s own terms, creating a unique style that distinguishes their work from others.

Avoiding Imitation and Maintaining Rigor:
Taleb criticizes the tendency for writers to imitate the style of successful authors, leading to a lack of individuality and indistinguishable writing. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigor in scientific research, appreciating the mathematical proofs and theorems found in STEM disciplines. Taleb criticizes fields like psychology and economics for lacking rigor, despite their attempts to adopt the scientific method.

Reading Recommendations:
Taleb recommends reading his inserto series in Italian, including books like “Antifragile,” “The Bed of Procrustes,” “Fooled by Randomness,” “The Black Swan,” “The Big Slave,” and “Robustness and Fragility.” He suggests reading history for pleasure, including works like “History of Private Life” and Jules Verne’s novels. Taleb enjoys reading books on a variety of subjects, including history, philosophy, science, and literature.

Scientific Method and Rigor:
Taleb expresses his appreciation for the peer review system in scientific research, emphasizing the need for rigor and following established methods. He acknowledges the rigor found in mathematics and physics but criticizes the lack of rigor in fields like psychology and economics. Taleb believes that scientific research should follow the rigorous models of STEM science, rejecting less rigorous approaches that lack mathematical proof and rigorous assumptions.