Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Scholar) (Mar 2020)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Scholar Investor) – Skin in the Game | Art of Manliness Podcast (Mar 2020)

Chapters

00:00:00 Skin in the Game: Ethics, Competence, and Honor

Book’s Central Theme:
Taleb’s life’s work and writings aim to investigate luck, randomness, and decision-making under opacity, addressing areas not covered by science.

Skin in the Game:
Taleb introduces the concept of skin in the game, emphasizing the importance of bearing risks and consequences for one’s decisions and actions. He criticizes those who transfer the downside to others while benefiting from uncertainty and asymmetry.

Asymmetry and Ethics:
Skin in the game goes beyond economic incentives and disincentives, exploring the ethical and fundamental aspects of being human. Taleb argues that true honor lies in taking risks and not exporting the downside to others.

Selection and Rot:
Anything not subjected to selection pressures will rot. Academics judged by other academics, not by survival mechanisms, can lead to deterioration in their field. Restaurants judged by clients are subjected to survival mechanisms and produce better food.

Ethics and Competence:
Competence and ethics are inseparable. Trusting someone implies trusting their skills and their integrity.

Traditional Honor and Skin in the Game:
Traditional honor aligns with the principles of skin in the game, emphasizing risk-taking and accountability. In contrast, BS vendors lack skin in the game, don’t understand the world, and take no personal risks.

Virtue Signaling Without Risk:
Virtue signaling without risk-taking lacks true virtue. Examples include hotels saving money by not washing towels while preaching environmentalism and university officials delivering virtue-laden speeches without taking risks for their statements.

Incentives and Honor:
Honor-driven actions are not motivated by incentives but by a sense of duty and responsibility. Helping others is not done for personal gain but for the collective good.

The Boundaries of Human Existence:
Modernity has created artificial boundaries between humans, leading to a misconception that death is the end. In reality, one’s existence extends beyond their own life, encompassing family, descendants, tribe, humanity, and the environment.

00:10:36 Scaling Ethics and Skin in the Game

Scaling Ethics and Skin in the Game:
Brett McKay suggests that scaling game theory requires considering the well-being of entities beyond oneself, including the planet and future generations. The concept of skin in the game emphasizes the importance of taking personal risks and having consequences for one’s actions. McKay argues that true courage involves taking risks for the collective good rather than for selfish reasons. Laws and regulations can address certain asymmetries, but relying on traditional notions of honor and ethical codes can be more effective in promoting responsible behavior.

Scarcity, Scaling, and Group Dynamics:
Eleanor Ostrom’s research on fishermen illustrates how group dynamics change with scale. In smaller groups, cooperation and resource protection are prevalent, but as the group expands, competition and resource depletion increase. Universal ethical codes become impractical and incoherent beyond a certain group size. Different ethical codes can coexist within a multi-scale society, with varying obligations towards different groups.

Hierarchy of Ethical Treatment:
McKay proposes a hierarchy of ethical treatment based on proximity and relationships. While universalism demands equal treatment for all, prioritizing the well-being of family and close friends is natural and ethical. This concept of thick blood versus thin blood acknowledges that different levels of obligation exist within different social circles.

Soul in the Game and the Saints:
Beyond skin in the game, McKay introduces the idea of soul in the game, referring to individuals who consistently give more than they take. These rare individuals, often found in all walks of life, prioritize the collective good and take risks for the improvement of life on Earth. They are distinct from revolutionaries, who often claim to act for the collective but may have selfish motivations.

The Lindy Effect:
The Lindy effect is a concept that suggests the future life expectancy of a non-perishable item is proportional to its current age. McKay relates the Lindy effect to ideas and technologies that have survived and thrived over time, suggesting that they have inherent qualities that make them more likely to persist in the future. The Lindy effect can be used to assess the potential longevity and relevance of ideas, technologies, and cultural artifacts.

00:21:11 Relationships Between Technology, Longevity, and Anti-Fragility

00:24:46 Ideas About Rules, Asymmetries, and Ethics

Abstract

The Essence of Responsible Decision-Making: Ethics, Risk, and Survival

Examining the Intersection of Ethics, Honor, and Rationality in an Uncertain World

Abstract:

In a rapidly evolving world, where decisions under uncertainty shape the future, the principles of ethics, honor, and rationality intertwine to form the bedrock of responsible decision-making. This article delves into Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Skin in the Game,” Brett McKay’s “scaling ethics,” and the broader implications of the Lindy effect, exploring how these concepts influence individual and collective actions, shape societal norms, and address contemporary challenges like Salafi Islam.

—

1. The Ethical Asymmetry: Taleb’s “Skin in the Game”

Taleb’s pivotal work, “Skin in the Game,” illuminates the ethical asymmetry in decision-making. He exposes a class of antifragile individuals who thrive on uncertainty while transferring risks to others. Taleb’s work aims to investigate luck, randomness, and decision-making under opacity, addressing areas not covered by science. He introduces the concept of “skin in the game” and highlights the need for individuals to bear the consequences of their decisions to ensure ethical behavior.

Central to his thesis is the interplay between ethics and competence, especially in trust-centric professions. Taleb contrasts traditional notions of honor with modern “BS vendors” who lack personal accountability, advocating for risk-bearing as a hallmark of genuine virtue. His critique extends to virtue signaling in corporate and academic spheres, where risk-free rhetoric undermines true virtue.

2. Scaling Ethics: Brett McKay’s Vision

Brett McKay’s concept of “scaling ethics” amplifies the discussion. He underscores the need to consider actions’ impacts beyond the individual, advocating for a collective benefit perspective. Drawing from ancient virtues, McKay argues that true courage lies in risk-taking for the greater good. He introduces “soul in the game,” highlighting individuals driven by purpose beyond personal gain. McKay acknowledges the complexity of ethical codes across societal scales, suggesting that a universal ethical standard is unattainable in diverse societies.

Laws and regulations can address certain asymmetries, but relying on traditional notions of honor and ethical codes can be more effective in promoting responsible behavior. Eleanor Ostrom’s research on fishermen illustrates how group dynamics change with scale. In smaller groups, cooperation and resource protection are prevalent, but as the group expands, competition and resource depletion increase. Universal ethical codes become impractical and incoherent beyond a certain group size. Different ethical codes can coexist within a multi-scale society, with varying obligations towards different groups.

3. The Lindy Effect: A Guideline for Longevity and Rationality

The Lindy effect offers a fascinating perspective on survival and rationality. It posits that the longer something has survived, the longer it will continue to exist. This principle is not only applicable to technologies and ideas but also to ethical and rational decision-making. In alignment with Taleb’s views, the Lindy effect implies that having skin in the game enhances understanding of long-term consequences, promoting creations meant to last beyond the present.

Broadway shows that have survived for a long time are more likely to continue to run. This effect is due to skin in the game, which is the idea that people are more likely to invest in something that they have a personal stake in. Life expectancy decreases with age, but for technologies, the opposite effect is observed. Technologies that have survived a long time are more likely to continue to exist in the future. Write for posterity, not just for the present. Think in terms of what has survived the test of time. Write something that is valid and understandable today, and that would have been interesting to people in the past.

4. Timelessness and Anti-Fragility: Lessons from Religion and Writing

The concept of timelessness in writing and the anti-fragility of religious beliefs provide additional layers to this discourse. Timeless writing, devoid of transient elements, resonates across generations. Similarly, religion imbues communities with shared values, enabling them to navigate uncertainties resiliently. These paradigms illustrate how enduring principles and beliefs contribute to collective survival and rationality.

Religion can make people or communities of people anti-fragile, which means that they are able to benefit from disorder and uncertainty. This is because religion provides people with a sense of meaning and purpose, which helps them to cope with difficult times.

5. Rationality, Ethics, and Minority Rule: A Complex Interplay

Rationality is often defined in terms of survival. It is difficult to determine what is rational without knowing the outcome in advance. The world is too complex to rely solely on reason. Surviving instincts and rules that may seem irrational can be rational from a ruin standpoint, which is the avoidance of extinction.

The collective ethic of a society is not simply the sum of the preferences of its members. It is often determined by the intolerance of a small minority of people who impose their ethical views on the majority. This asymmetry is what determines ethics in society.

Minority groups with strong ethical beliefs can have a disproportionate influence on society’s ethics. This can be seen in the example of dietary laws, where a small number of kosher people can influence the availability of kosher food for the entire population.

Salafi Islam is a radical form of Islam that has been growing in recent years. It is important to address Salafi Islam from within Islam itself, rather than trying to suppress it from the outside. Stopping funding for Saudi Arabia, which has played a role in the spread of Salafi Islam, can also be an effective measure.

—

This article, synthesizing the profound ideas of Taleb and McKay, serves as a clarion call for embracing ethical responsibility in our personal and collective decisions. It underscores the necessity of aligning our actions with timeless principles, thus ensuring that our choices contribute positively to the enduring tapestry of human civilization.

Notes by: Flaneur

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Scholar Investor) – Skin in the Game | Art of Manliness Podcast (Mar 2020)

Chapters

Abstract

Related posts: