Coming Together or Falling Apart: The Dual Crisis or Opportunity of Synthetic Biology and AI:
Mustafa Suleiman’s new book, “The Coming Wave,” addresses the convergence of synthetic biology and AI, warning of their potential dual impact as a crisis or an opportunity.

Trend of Increasing Utility and Decreasing Cost:
Suleiman highlights the historical trend of technologies becoming more useful and cheaper over time, citing examples from the hand axe to microchips.

Ambitious Book Drawing From Diverse Disciplines:
Suleiman’s book reflects his broad intellectual interests and extensive reading, including works by Benedict Anderson and others outside the typical Silicon Valley entrepreneur’s reading list.

Collaborative Writing Process and Deep Research:
Suleiman collaborated with his friend and co-author, Michael Barsker, to develop the ideas presented in the book, drawing inspiration from historical examples and anecdotes.

Analogies with the Cold War: Proliferation and Containment:
Suleiman draws parallels between the coming wave of synthetic biology and AI and the Cold War, emphasizing the role of technology in enabling states to serve citizens, pursue military goals, and advance nationhood.

Homo Technologicus and Geopolitical Competition:
Suleiman emphasizes the human tendency to use tools, referring to the concept of “homo technologicus,” and explains how geopolitical competition drives the development and use of these technologies.

Geopolitical Incentives for Technological Access:
Technological advancements are driven by a range of incentives, including political, military, commercial, and the desire to address global challenges such as hunger, healthcare, and climate change. These incentives create a strong demand for rapid access to and experimentation with new technologies.

Containment Strategies in a Complex Context:
Containment strategies for emerging technologies face challenges due to the geopolitical context of competing interests and incentives. The recent Cold War with China highlights the tension between the desire for access to advanced technologies and the concerns about their potential misuse.

Containment Targets: Technologies or Companies:
The question arises whether containment efforts should focus on the technologies themselves, the companies that own and develop them, or both. The distinction between technologies and companies can be blurred, as companies often play a crucial role in shaping the development and use of technologies.

The Techno-prudential Moment:
The current technological landscape differs from past technological advancements due to the involvement of private actors and the widespread availability of open-source resources. Cutting-edge technologies, such as AI, are becoming accessible to a broader range of individuals and organizations, leading to concentrated forms of power.

Concentrated Power and Asymmetric Access:
While technological advancements have democratized access to certain tools and resources, they have also created concentrated units of power in the hands of individuals and organizations. This asymmetry of power raises concerns about the potential misuse of technologies and the need for responsible stewardship.

AI and Social Media:
AI will have the ability to act and communicate, unlike previous technologies. Some believe that social media has softened us and distracted us from the potential risks of AI.

Social Media and AI:
Suleiman argues that social media has made us more alert to the potential consequences of AI. The chaos of social media has raised concerns about misinformation, filter bubbles, and the influence of ranking algorithms. These concerns can be used to approach AI with more scrutiny and caution.

AI Training and Social Media:
AI is trained on trillions of words from various sources, including social media. Social media content is a small part of the training data. Larger AI models have become more controllable and less likely to produce toxic or biased content.

Technical Safety in AI:
Suleiman’s AI company, Pi, prioritizes technical safety. Pi is designed to be incredibly safe and resistant to prompt hacks. Focusing on technical safety can produce a distinct and safe AI experience.

Regulation and Technological Advancements:
Suleiman believes regulation is outdated and ineffective for containing new technologies like AI and synthetic biology. He argues that regulation is often slow, inflexible, and unable to keep up with rapid technological changes. Instead, Suleiman proposes a 10-step plan that involves a combination of market forces, self-regulation, and international cooperation.

Regulation as a First Step:
Regulation is necessary, but not enough to address the challenges posed by new technologies like AI and synthetic biology. Cultural pressure, social concerns, movements, and industry self-regulation will also play important roles.

Self-Regulation Precedents:
The aviation industry’s cross-industry collaboration led to improved safety and became a model for other industries. The black box recorder facilitated the sharing of failure and safety information among competitors, leading to industry-wide improvements.

Challenges of Climate Change:
Climate change presents a complex challenge due to the need to forego benefits and address global coordination. Similar to AI and synthetic biology, climate change requires balancing the benefits and risks of technological advancement.

Incentivization and Ayn Randian Capitalism:
The Turing test has shifted from focusing on what AI can say to what it can do. The value of AI systems is measured by their ability to generate real-world profits. Incentivization through profit can drive innovation and progress.

Inequality and Taxation:
Inequality has been exacerbated by the technological revolution, with stagnant wages for the bottom 60% in the US. Taxation can be used to redistribute wealth and address inequality. Radical taxation proposals may be necessary to mitigate the acceleration of inequality.

Public Benefit Corporations:
Public benefit corporations have a legal obligation to consider the consequences of their actions on non-customers and wider stakeholders. Inflection, Mustafa Suleiman’s company, is structured as a public benefit corporation.

Suleiman’s Goals and Intentions:
Suleiman’s goal is to defend the public interest and strengthen the nation state. He believes that the nation state should be enhanced, not torn down.

Strengthening the Nation State:
Suleiman proposes more aggressive taxes on corporations to address inequality. He also suggests investing in education, research, and infrastructure to prepare for the coming technological wave. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong democratic process to address the challenges and opportunities presented by new technologies.

Pre-Regulatory Oversight:
Nation states should oversee and scrutinize the development pace of AI technologies. Tech companies must proactively provide code access to democratic governments for verification. Voluntary commitments at the White House demonstrate industry willingness for pre-regulation.

Addressing the Revolving Door Issue:
The revolving door between government and tech poses a risk to nation states. Free labor market dynamics incentivize public servants to seek higher-paying private-sector jobs. Increasing compensation for public servants can mitigate the revolving door issue. Public servants often lack love and respect in countries like America.

Minister for Technology and AI:
Cabinets should include a minister specifically for technology and AI. This minister would be a first-class citizen in decision-making processes. The minister’s role is to ensure technology considerations are adequately addressed.

Governments’ Reliance on Commissioning Technology Services:
Governments have become accustomed to commissioning technology services from external providers. This reliance on external services leads to a loss of institutional muscle for understanding the details of the commissioned technology. Consequently, governments lose the ability to effectively control and contain the technology they use.

The Need for Internal Technical Expertise:
To truly control and contain technology, governments must possess technical expertise within their own ranks. This expertise enables governments to understand the details of the technology they commission and make informed decisions about its use. Relying solely on external expertise, such as government CTOs, is not sufficient due to their limited power and influence within the government.

Investing in Government Technical Expertise:
Investing significantly in developing technical expertise within the government is essential. This investment would ensure that governments have the necessary knowledge and skills to effectively control and contain technology. It would also enable governments to make more informed decisions about technology procurement and use.

Mustafa Suleiman’s Book Launch:
Mustafa Suleiman’s new book is being launched in the US next week. The book is also expected to be shortlisted for the VFT award.

Conclusion:
The author emphasizes the importance of governments possessing technical expertise to effectively control and contain technology. The author calls for significant investment in developing technical expertise within governments. Mustafa Suleiman’s new book on the topic is being launched soon.