Introduction and Setting:

Larry Fink and Masayoshi Son are both chairmen, founders, and CEOs, conversing virtually despite traditionally meeting in Davos for such talks. They discuss technology’s transformative impact on lives, using their virtual meeting as an example.

Global Uncertainties:

Fink highlights the ongoing uncertainties brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, asking for Son’s perspective on the year 2020 and his outlook for 2021.

Long-term vs. Short-term Outlook:

Son states that he is optimistic in the long run, especially with the roll-out of vaccines and antibodies. However, he expresses short-term pessimism due to the ongoing loss of lives and the slow vaccination process, particularly citing Japan’s situation.

Technology’s Accelerating Role:

Fink notes that the pandemic has accelerated technological changes, influencing global economies, work environments, educational systems, and medical applications. Son’s optimism aligns with this point, as technology enables such virtual interactions and holds promise for future transformations.

Accelerated Transformations:

Masayoshi Son notes that technology’s transformative impact on various sectors is accelerating. The shift is drastic, driven by companies using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to revolutionize industries like lifestyle, education, and medicine.

Remote Working and Efficiency:

Son observes that video conferencing tools like Zoom have become essential. He finds them even more efficient than traveling for overseas meetings, emphasizing how the pandemic has drastically changed the way we work.

AI in Education and Medicine:

AI is having a significant impact on education and medicine. In education, AI helps to monitor and improve the performance of students and teachers, increasing efficiency. In medicine, AI is accelerating drug discovery, including medications for COVID-19.

AI and Industry Disruption:

Son provides statistics on the number of ‘unicorn’ companies (valued at over $1 billion), half of which are from the US and a large portion from China. Many of these companies use AI as a tool for industry disruption. He also notes that only one unicorn company is from Japan, highlighting the global disparity in technological adoption.

Geographical Distribution of Tech Influence:

Son emphasizes the rapid growth of technological influence in China alongside the already dominant U.S. influence. He remarks that young entrepreneurs from these countries are disrupting traditional industries at an unprecedented scale.

The Miracles of Technology:

Larry Fink considers some technological advancements to be ‘miracles’ that enable society to cope with current challenges. He stresses that without such technology, the global situation during the pandemic would be far worse.

Internet’s Industry Disruption:

Son offers an example of the internet’s disruptive power, noting that ten years ago, companies like Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon were not in the top 10 by market cap, but now they dominate the list. The Internet has notably disrupted the advertisement and retail industries, which account for significant portions of GDP.

Logistics and GDP:

Lastly, Son provides data on the logistics industry, citing its considerable contribution to GDP: 11% in the U.S. and 15% in China. This information suggests another ripe sector for future technological disruption.

Mass Production of Autonomous Vehicles:

Masayoshi Son emphasizes that mass production of fully autonomous vehicles is slated to begin in just two years. These vehicles will be produced without a steering wheel, signaling a shift from experimental stages to commercialization.

Cost Efficiency:

The speaker projects that within a few years after mass production starts, the cost per mileage for using autonomous vehicles will be cheaper than owning and operating a personal car. He suggests that people will no longer need to own cars, pay for insurance, or find parking, which will be a paradigm shift.

Impact on Logistics:

Son predicts that autonomous vehicles will revolutionize logistics, reducing costs by one-tenth in developed countries. This will lead to cheaper, quicker, and more convenient product deliveries, drastically changing the logistics and transportation industries.

Evolution of Transportation:

Drawing a parallel between the shift from horse-based to gas-powered transportation, the speaker views the transition to autonomous vehicles as the next significant evolution. He refers to the autonomous vehicle as a “supercomputer on wheels,” capable of revolutionizing work and entertainment on the go.

Safety and Traffic:

Son believes that autonomous vehicles will be much safer than human-driven cars, significantly reducing or even eliminating accidents. Traffic jams could also become a thing of the past, as these vehicles would communicate with each other for seamless flow.

Future Prohibitions:

He anticipates that human-driven cars could be banned from highways and metropolitan areas within the next 50 years due to the safety risks they pose. This is analogous to how horses were gradually phased out from city roads and highways.

Industry Leaders’ Perspectives:

According to key CEOs and technologists Son has spoken with, the next frontier in technology is not smartphones, but autonomous vehicles. He posits that this will become the biggest industry, describing it as a “miracle.”

Broader Technological Implications:

While the focus is on autonomous vehicles, Son also hints at how advancements in AI and genome editing could impact other sectors like healthcare, opening doors to previously unimaginable solutions like predicting and editing genetic diseases.

In summary, Masayoshi Son paints a compelling picture of the imminent impact of autonomous vehicles on society, from cost savings and increased efficiency to safety improvements and industry transformation.

Technological Disruptions:

Masayoshi Son acknowledges that the rapid advances in technology, which he views as miraculous, are also disruptive. These changes have the potential to upend traditional employment in sectors such as transportation.

Societal Inequality:

The other speaker raises concerns about the consequences of rapid technological change, specifically how it could exacerbate societal inequalities. They ask for suggestions on how governments and societies can move forward without creating more disparity.

Adaptation is Inevitable:

Son argues that technological evolution is unstoppable and that humans must adapt to it. He sees re-education and adaptation as essential for individuals to navigate the changing landscape. Son believes that the focus should not be on slowing down technology, but on equipping people to adjust.

Job Transformation:

Son draws a historical parallel with the transition from horse-powered to mechanized transportation, noting that while jobs were lost in the process, new opportunities also arose. He predicts that ‘dangerous, dirty, and tiring’ jobs will be replaced by what he calls ‘silver collar’ jobs, performed by robots.

The Role of ‘Silver Collar’ Jobs:

According to Son, these ‘silver collar’ robots will take over many of the blue-collar roles. This change, he argues, is positive as it will free humans from work that they do mainly for wages, rather than for joy or fulfillment.

Human-like Jobs:

With the advent of ‘silver collar’ roles, Son believes that humans will transition to more ‘human-like’ jobs that involve communication, discussion, art, and entertainment. He contends that these roles will not only be more fulfilling but also more valuable in the future.

A Glimpse of the Future:

The conversation closes on a humorous note, suggesting that even roles like CEOs could eventually be replaced by technology, to which Son doesn’t provide a counter-argument.

In summary, the discussion highlights the tension between the opportunities and challenges presented by rapid technological advancements. While Masayoshi Son sees the need for humans to adapt rather than curb technology, questions remain about societal inequality and job transformation.

Investment in Renewable Energy:

Masayoshi Son discusses his investments in renewable energy technologies, specifically mentioning the creation of solar parks. He points out that solar energy has become the cheapest form of electricity in countries with abundant sunshine.

Longevity and Cost-Effectiveness:

Son explains that while financial models usually calculate a 25-year period for project finance in solar parks, the actual lifespan of these solar installations can extend up to 80 years. This makes solar energy incredibly cost-effective in the long term as the ongoing costs are virtually nil after the initial 25 years.

Grid Infrastructure:

Son stresses the importance of a large, inter-country grid to fully utilize renewable energy sources like wind and solar. He suggests that having a well-connected grid allows for the consistent generation of energy, as wind and sun are always available somewhere.

Transmission Efficiency:

When questioned about the efficiency of electricity transmission over long distances, Son refers to the development of ‘hyperpowered’ grids. These grids can transmit power across thousands of miles with only a 2.5% reduction in transmission, especially if the entire system operates on Direct Current (DC) instead of alternating between DC and Alternating Current (AC).

Technological Developments:

Son highlights that advanced technologies are continuously being developed to support renewable energy, adding that existing ones like solar and wind are becoming increasingly cost-effective. This efficiency is critical for moving towards a net-zero carbon world.

The conversation affirms the role technology plays in creating a sustainable future, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of renewable energy sources like solar and wind, and the advances in grid infrastructure.

Current Centers of Innovation:

Masayoshi Son observes that the United States and China currently dominate the technological innovation landscape, particularly in the realm of AI. These two countries are responsible for around 80% of all AI patents, a figure that could be as high as 90% if more critical patents are considered.

Outlook for Other Countries:

Son projects that the U.S. and China will continue to be the main hubs of innovation for at least the next two decades. He expresses concern for Japan, pointing out that despite being the world’s third-largest economy, Japan has significantly fewer AI-based unicorns than even India. He calls on the Japanese government to rethink its strategy.

AI’s Role in Society:

Addressing concerns about the implications of AI for humanity, Son is optimistic. He argues that AI is fundamentally beneficial and cites its applications in reducing traffic accidents, enhancing connectivity among people, and even contributing to solutions for global challenges like climate change.

Final Remarks:

Son emphasizes that as long as AI is used for the good of humanity, which he believes is the case for the majority of applications, it is a positive force. He suggests that innovation will likely continue to be concentrated in the United States and China, and encourages focus on these regions for future technological developments.

The discussion underscores the prevailing influence of the U.S. and China in technological innovation while highlighting the need for other countries, like Japan, to catch up. It also casts AI in a positive light, as a technology with the potential to address various human challenges effectively.