Introduction and Context:

The primary speaker is Lee Kuan Yew, founding father and former Prime Minister of Singapore. In an interview with Charlie Rose, Lee discusses his perspective on the global issue of terrorism and its implications for Singapore.

Global Nature of Terrorism:

Lee emphasizes that terrorism is not just an American problem but a global one. He insists that the issue has deep roots that have been “brewing” for over 30 years. He observes that Singapore is not immune to the threat, signifying its universal impact.

The Changing Face of Islam in Southeast Asia:

Lee argues that the nature of Islam in Southeast Asia has shifted over the past 30 years. Due to the influx of petrodollars, there has been a marked increase in proselytizing, mosque building, and teaching of Wahhabism—an austere form of Islam. This change has led to Southeast Asian Muslims adopting a more Arabian-centric view of their religion.

The Role of Global Religious Fervor:

Lee explains that the rise in religious fervor, initially stoked by countries like Saudi Arabia, has set the stage for individuals like Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden seeks out those who are vulnerable and feel the need for redemption, recruiting them to become jihadists. This is where, according to Lee, the world’s problems with terrorism begin.

Perception of Atrocities:

According to Lee, radical fundamentalists view any act of cruelty against Muslims anywhere as an affront to all Muslims globally. They do not see these incidents as isolated but as part of a larger struggle to assert Islam’s right to supremacy.

America as the Prime Target:

America is considered the chief enemy for multiple reasons: its strength as a nation, its relationship with Israel, and its military presence in Muslim countries. The objective of figures like Bin Laden is not just retaliation but to establish Taliban-like regimes, particularly in Gulf states, to assert control over oil and eventually create a global Muslim caliphate.

Impact on Singapore:

Lee reveals that Singapore was a target for massive bombings planned in December 2001. Targets included embassies of various countries and other sites frequented by Americans. The rationale? Merely allowing American aircraft and ships to use Singapore’s ports made the country a “lackey” of the United States, deserving of punishment.

Through this dialogue, Lee Kuan Yew offers a nuanced understanding of the complex factors contributing to the rise of terrorism, illustrating its truly global scope.

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Impact of the Iraqi War on Terrorism:

Lee Kuan Yew discusses the impact of the Iraq War on terrorism with the interviewer, presenting a nuanced view. He suggests that the war has both aided and hindered the fight against terrorism. While the war may have diverted attention and resources from other conflicts, it has also concentrated terrorist activities in Iraq, reducing pressure elsewhere. The speaker draws from an expert’s analysis to share that terrorists have focused on Iraq as an opportunity for attacks, consequently reducing activities in Southeast Asia.

Views of Terrorism Expert Rohan Gunaratnam:

Rohan Gunaratnam, a terrorism expert who moved to Singapore, initially opposed the Iraq War, viewing it as a distraction. However, upon reviewing the situation, he acknowledges that it has inadvertently limited terrorist activities in Southeast Asia. He suggests that terrorists are planning “something big” but are currently focused on Iraq.

European Perspective on Terrorism:

Lee Kuan Yew sheds light on the European perspective on counterterrorism, specifically mentioning his interactions with Jacques Chirac. European leaders, including the British, French, Germans, and Italians, largely believe that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is crucial for effectively fighting terrorism. The belief is that as long as this issue remains unresolved, it will continue to fuel extremism.

U.S. Role in Israeli-Palestinian Conflict:

European leaders seem to think that the United States must take the lead in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue. They are unlikely to fully cooperate on counterterrorism efforts unless the U.S. takes a more proactive role in this particular conflict.

By navigating through various perspectives, Lee Kuan Yew emphasizes the complexity of the global struggle against terrorism. He presents an intricate picture that goes beyond simplistic narratives, underscoring the multi-faceted challenges involved in counterterrorism efforts.

Predicted Economic Growth in Asia:

Lee Kuan Yew comments on the robust economic growth in Asia, particularly in India and China. The Prime Minister of India aims for 7-8% annual growth, while China is growing at a rate of 8-9%. He acknowledges that many experts predict China will replace Japan as the world’s second-largest economy by 2020.

Population and Economic Scale:

Lee Kuan Yew argues that China’s large population, at around 1.3 billion, compared to Japan’s 120 million, positions it to have a GDP at least five times that of Japan in 50 years, just considering its coastal provinces. He mentions that the ratio of China’s population to Japan’s is about 11 times, emphasizing the scale at which China can operate.

Market Participation:

China and India have made strategic decisions to join and adhere to global markets. Lee Kuan Yew notes that although China’s adherence to international property norms is not yet full, it’s heading in that direction as it is in their interest. India, observing China’s growth, also shifted its course about a decade ago after finding itself lagging due to 40 years of economic planning.

Historical Perspective:

Lee Kuan Yew suggests that the global economic landscape may return to a balance reminiscent of the 1700s, before the full onset of the Industrial Revolution, when China was the world’s biggest economy. However, he argues that the world has changed, pointing out the existence of a unified Europe and America.

Geographical Shift in Economic Power:

Lee Kuan Yew sees the center of economic gravity shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific, owing to the rapid economic development in Asia. This shift will have “enormous” consequences, including the growing importance of Asia in global economic forums like the G7.

The overarching message is that Asia, specifically China and India, is experiencing significant economic growth, and this growth is set to alter the global economic landscape substantially. According to Lee Kuan Yew, these shifts will have enormous consequences, both in terms of economics and geopolitics.

China’s Global Economic Influence:

Lee Kuan Yew remarks that China isn’t concerned about whether it is invited to global financial forums like the G7, as its actions, particularly with its currency, the Renminbi or Yuan, already have a significant impact on the world stage.

Inevitability of China’s Rise:

According to Lee Kuan Yew, China’s growth is not just the result of short-term economic factors. It is, rather, an “inevitability” arising from its large population, wise market decisions, and a strong focus on science and technology. This strategic approach ensures China’s ongoing ascent regardless of temporary economic fluctuations.

Personal Observations on China:

Lee Kuan Yew shares his experience visiting China in 1976, during the last days of the Mao era. Despite the uniformity in dress and expression at that time, he sensed China’s “tremendous brain power” and realized the challenge it could pose to Singapore.

Entrepreneurial Zeal vs Bureaucratic Talent:

Reflecting on a past visit to China, Lee Kuan Yew notes the strong entrepreneurial spirit he observed there. He contrasts this with Singapore’s approach, where the best and brightest often go into government and bureaucracy. He questions if this focus away from entrepreneurship could be a mistake for Singapore in the face of China’s emerging power.

In summary, Lee Kuan Yew discusses China’s inevitable rise in global economics, driven by strategic decisions, a large population, and a focus on technology and science. He also notes the significant entrepreneurial spirit in China and contrasts this with Singapore’s more bureaucratic talent pool, pondering the implications for his own country.

State Building and Common Destiny:

Lee Kuan Yew asserts that a strong government had to precede economic development in Singapore. He emphasizes the importance of national cohesion and a “sense of common destiny” as prerequisites for a functioning society. The government’s role was to ensure this cohesion and to prevent societal breakdown.

American Economic Adaptability:

Lee Kuan Yew acknowledges his shift in perspective about economic governance. Initially influenced by British ideas of stability, he later admired the American economy’s ability to adapt and innovate. This adaptability, he suggests, is the secret to America’s economic resilience.

Cultural Legacy and Government:

Yew discusses the cultural values shared between China and Singapore, where scholars have traditionally been highly prized. In both nations, the “cream of the crop” tends to go into government service. Despite this, he notes that China has enough bright individuals to also fuel entrepreneurship.

The Succession Issue:

Discussing his son’s role as the new Prime Minister, Yew tackles the question of nepotism and influence. He states that his son is highly capable and would have been made Prime Minister even if he wasn’t his son. He emphasizes that his son’s strong will is a critical asset for leadership.

Strong Leadership in Crisis:

Reflecting on his tenure, Yew argues that the first 10 years required a strong hand to prevent the country from falling apart due to “racial strife, religious hatreds, and old feuds.” During this period, the government redeveloped the city and disrupted ethnic enclaves to foster national unity.

Social Engineering:

Yew highlights the deliberate social planning that has shaped Singapore. Residential areas and schools are racially and ethnically mixed to prevent ghettos or enclaves. He indicates that societal differentiation in Singapore occurs mostly by income, affecting one’s housing and standard of living.

The transcript reveals Lee Kuan Yew’s complex views on governance, economic development, and societal harmony, providing a lens into the strategies that have shaped modern Singapore.

Early Lessons from Singapore’s Struggles:

Lee Kuan Yew attributed his insights and tough governance style to his observations of Singapore’s early challenges. Constant riots and economic disparities, especially among Malayans living in poverty-stricken areas, led him to conclude that a strict and disciplined approach was necessary to achieve stability and prosperity.

Adaptation to Changing Times:

Lee acknowledged that Singapore has evolved, citing its more relaxed stance on things like chewing gum and movies. He noted that this change is in line with Singaporeans becoming more cosmopolitan due to high rates of travel and exposure to different cultures.

Singapore in a Changing World:

Lee emphasized that Singapore needs to remain competitive given the rapid growth of China and India. In his view, Singapore succeeded historically by being an efficient alternative to the inefficiencies of larger countries. Now, as China and India grow, Singapore needs to adapt but will remain relevant as a hub of excellence.

Future Growth Projections:

While the growth rate of Singapore is projected to be 4-5%, Lee was optimistic about riding on the economic growth of China and India. He pointed out that not only Singapore but the whole of Southeast Asia would be lifted up by these “two huge locomotives.”

Advice for the U.S.:

Lee advised that America should not fear the rise of China and India, but rather seize it as an opportunity. He suggested that the U.S. could capitalize on its long-standing connections and technological advancements to engage with these rising powers, albeit without imposing its way of life on them.

Sociopolitical Change in Developing Countries:

Lee Kuan Yew indicated that countries are undergoing inevitable changes, particularly citing an example of increased urbanization. From his first visit to an unnamed country in 1976, the population has shifted from being primarily rural (80%) to increasingly urban. He predicts more significant changes in governance as societies become more connected and well-informed.

The Role of Cities in Governance:

Discussing the role of cities like Shanghai and New York, Lee emphasized that political power is often centralized, as in Beijing for China or Washington for the U.S. However, the nature of this centralization varies according to the constitution of each country. For instance, he notes that while Shanghai may be avant-garde in culture and lifestyle, its political style is determined by Beijing.

Challenges and Opportunities for Singapore’s Youth:

Lee Kuan Yew pointed out that young Singaporeans face a plethora of choices today, which he identified as both an opportunity and a challenge. He stressed the importance of education, particularly in English, as a world language, and advocated for a deep understanding of Chinese politics and culture, seeing China as the most significant growth story of the 21st century.

Language and Cultural Preparedness:

In the context of future opportunities, Lee advised young people to have at least a conversational command of Mandarin. He sees this as crucial for interacting with China, the likely dominant force in the global landscape, emphasizing the need not just for language skills but also a comprehensive understanding of Chinese culture and politics.

Importance of Language:

Lee Kuan Yew emphasizes the global importance of English as a lingua franca, highlighting that it will continue to be the key to new knowledge. He also touches on the idea that while Spanish may be important politically within the U.S., Mandarin could have greater global significance in the future.

Base of Operations:

Lee suggests that even though China is becoming increasingly important, he would still choose Singapore as his base. He values Singapore for its mix of traditional and modern elements, making it a good place to bring up a family with “orthodox old world values.”

Education:

Lee highly values quality education, mentioning renowned institutions like Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard as ideal choices. However, he acknowledges that quality education can also be found in other places.

American Century:

Lee is optimistic about the United States, stating that he believes America will continue to be the world’s most dynamic economy for the next 50 to 100 years, not just economically but also in terms of military and technological power.

Challenges for America:

Lee suggests that while America is envied for its wealth and lifestyle, it should aim to be less “apprehensive,” referring to the concerns some global citizens have about American influence overwhelming other cultures.

Environmental Responsibility:

Lee critiques the American lifestyle for its impact on the environment. He cites Japan as an example of a nation that has successfully minimized consumption to become more energy-efficient per unit produced.

Asian Geopolitics:

Lee doesn’t foresee immediate conflict between major Asian nations like China, South Korea, and Japan. He mentions that China is currently in a mode of peaceful growth, focusing on economic development before tackling other geopolitical matters.

Global Engagement:

Finally, Lee advises American leaders to be more sensitive to global concerns and to engage in more humble and constructive dialogue with the rest of the world. He also emphasizes the need for the U.S. to be at the forefront of energy independence and environmental responsibility.

These insights provide a balanced perspective on globalization, the importance of educational and cultural foundations, and what the future may hold for the U.S. and other significant players on the world stage.

North Korean Interests:

Lee Kuan Yew discusses North Korea’s perception of its own interests, especially concerning its relationship with China. The North Koreans believe the Chinese prioritize their own benefits, even at the expense of North Korea. This belief was solidified when China developed friendly ties with South Korea, who could offer more advantages than the North.

China’s Motivations:

The role of China in North Korea’s survival is significant. China aids North Korea to prevent its collapse, which would result in a pro-American South Korea extending to China’s borders. China wants North Korea to exist but without nuclear weapons, presenting a complicated relationship.

Nuclear Deterrence and Respect:

There is an international perception that possessing nuclear capabilities earns a nation greater respect and attention. This creates a problematic incentive structure, especially for North Korea, who sees nuclear armament as a way to secure its own safety and international standing.

Internal Motivations for Nuclear Weapons:

North Korean leaders fear that their collapse would lead to them being tried for war crimes. The acquisition and retention of nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent to this outcome, making the international community more cautious in its dealings with the country.

Global Proliferation Concerns:

Lee Kuan Yew raises concerns about other countries wanting nuclear weapons, citing the examples of Iran and Pakistan. He casts doubt on any country that claims not to want nuclear capabilities, noting that if they can acquire them, they likely will, considering the status and protection that come with it.

Risks of Uncontrolled Nuclear Use:

The discussion ends with an inquiry into the likelihood of a nuclear bomb falling into the wrong hands. While not directly answered, the implication is that the international situation surrounding nuclear proliferation is complex and fraught with risks.

Overall, the conversation captures a multi-faceted view of North Korea’s relations, motivations for nuclear armament, and the broader implications for global security.

North Korean Relations:

Lee Kuan Yew discusses the complex relationship between North Korea, China, and South Korea. He points out that North Korea has realized that China prioritizes its interests, shifting alliances when it became advantageous to befriend South Korea. This has led to mistrust among North Korea towards its erstwhile communist ally, China. China keeps North Korea afloat to prevent a pro-American Korea at its border, but they would prefer North Korea without nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Deterrence and Risks:

Lee Kuan Yew raises concerns about the potential for North Korea to sell nuclear weapons or parts, as they are financially strapped. While North Korea might not use the weapon themselves—understanding the repercussions—they could sell it to other entities. This acts as a powerful deterrent and negotiation chip on the global stage.

U.S. Involvement in Iraq:

Lee Kuan Yew moves on to discuss the U.S. engagement in Iraq, emphasizing that the primary concern should be managing the situation in Iraq effectively to not lose international standing. He suggests that if the U.S. leaves Iraq in a more stable condition than it was, it would be considered a positive outcome, much like how America overcame the aftermath of the Vietnam War.

American Foreign Policy:

He points out the American tendency to intervene with “high-minded objectives” such as bringing democracy. He questions whether America has the patience for long-term goals like societal change, especially in places with complex histories like Iraq.

Learning from History:

Both speakers agree on the importance of learning from history to avoid repeating mistakes. The emphasis is on understanding historical contexts, like British involvement in Iraq in the 1920s, to better inform current foreign policy decisions.

Global Leadership:

Lee Kuan Yew argues that handling the Iraq situation wisely would maintain America’s status as a world leader. Despite international skepticism and challenges, effective action could reaffirm U.S. global standing.