Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore Prime Minister) – Asia Future Summit (Oct 2023)
Chapters
00:00:01 China-US Relationship: Growing Rivalry and Domestic Challenges
Domestic Factors Influencing US-China Relations: Both countries perceive each other as adversaries or strategic challengers. The US sees China as a growing power aiming to surpass it, while China sees the US as attempting to restrain its progress. There is a lack of trust between the two countries, leading to precautionary measures that further increase suspicion and negative reactions.
Impact of Domestic Mood on US-China Relations: In the US, election politics and a broad national sentiment contribute to the perception of China as a unique and formidable challenger. In China, there is concern about the world and the US attempting to suppress its rise.
Impact of US-China Relations on the Global Stage: The US and China are engaged in technological competition, with China making significant advancements. The global order is shifting, with China seeking a greater role and the US trying to maintain its dominance. Countries are forced to navigate between the two powers, creating a more complex and challenging geopolitical landscape.
Conclusion: The US-China relationship is a defining factor in shaping the future of the world. The current trends of distrust and strategic competition are worrying and could lead to further deterioration. The domestic mood in both countries, influenced by political factors and national sentiment, contributes to the challenges in improving relations.
China’s Growing Influence in Asia: China’s economic growth and strategic presence have significantly impacted Asian perspectives. It is the largest trading partner for most Asian countries, including US allies like Japan and Australia. The US and China are competing strategically, while Asian countries seek to develop relationships with both without being pressured or coerced.
Navigating the US-China Rivalry: Countries in Asia want to maintain links with both the US and China, balancing security and economic interests. They recognize that China will continue to be a major player in the region and seek to co-prosper with it. China’s ability to grow its influence without alienating other countries will be crucial for regional stability.
The US Presence in Asia: The US has been a dominant force in Asia since World War II and remains welcome in the region. It has provided space for countries to grow, compete peacefully, and avoid being dominated or suppressed. The Americans’ long-term presence and sensitivity to regional concerns contribute to their continued acceptance.
Climate Change: Cooperation and Challenges: Climate change is a serious existential threat requiring global cooperation and technology development. Cooperative efforts include developing carbon trading markets, infrastructure for green energy trade, and transitioning to renewable energy sources. The challenge lies in cutting carbon emissions, which requires collective action and balancing individual responsibilities with historic contributions to the problem. Resolving the question of who owes whom compensation for historic emissions and addressing the concerns of countries with significant fossil fuel reserves are complex issues that need to be addressed.
00:12:43 Geopolitics, Climate Change, and Singapore's Role
Question 1: Danny Khoa, Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, seeks advice on how third countries can facilitate a resolution between the US and China.
Answer: PM Lee suggests that third countries should maintain stable relations with both the US and China, emphasizing that cooperation is essential for accommodating China’s growing influence.
Question 2: Zhu Feng, a professor from Nanjing University, asks how China and the US can maintain manageable and peaceful relations.
Answer: PM Lee proposes that China and the US should acknowledge their differences, reduce tensions, and avoid misunderstandings, especially during election seasons.
Question 3: Wong Wei Kong, the moderator, asks how small countries like Singapore can contribute to addressing climate change.
Answer: PM Lee acknowledges Singapore’s small contribution to global emissions but emphasizes the importance of collective action and sharing best practices to combat climate change.
Participation in International Climate Change Discussions: Singapore actively participates in international climate change discussions and negotiations, including at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Development of Carbon Markets: Singapore is co-chairing and working on developing carbon markets, including establishing rules and standards to ensure the integrity and effectiveness of these markets.
Singapore’s Efforts to Create Respectable Carbon Markets: Minister Grace Foo has announced the creation of regulations for carbon markets in Singapore, ensuring their credibility and preventing greenwashing.
Importance of Global Cooperation: Singapore’s contributions to international climate change efforts are significant, but the effectiveness of these efforts relies on the participation and actions of many countries, especially the largest emitters.
China’s Application to Join the CPTPP: The Prime Minister acknowledged China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Geopolitical Implications of China’s CPTPP Application: China’s application has raised questions and discussions due to geopolitical considerations, given the current geopolitical tensions between China and some CPTPP member countries.
00:26:40 China's membership in the CPTPP: Challenges and Considerations
China’s CPTPP Membership: China’s application to join the CPTPP is not surprising. China initially perceived the TPP as a strategy to set high standards against them. As China gained a better understanding of the CPTPP, they saw potential advantages in joining and influencing the process. China’s membership decision will depend on consensus among CPTPP members, considering economic, geopolitical, and strategic factors. The absence of the United States in the CPTPP is a significant challenge, making it unlikely for China’s membership in the near future.
Tensions with China: The Terex incident in 2016 did not involve China but rather Hong Kong Customs Authorities. Singapore handled the incident with attention, sensitivity, and propriety. Singapore hopes to avoid similar incidents in the future.
Leadership in Diplomacy: Singapore’s 4G leaders are well-equipped to handle diplomatic challenges with China. They have experience in managing complex relationships and navigating geopolitical tensions. Singapore’s diplomatic approach aims to maintain good relations with both China and Taiwan. Singapore’s leaders will continue to engage in dialogue and cooperation to prevent escalation of tensions.
00:31:51 Singapore's Path to Excellence: Resilience, Unity, and Leadership
Challenges and Opportunities for Singapore: Singapore’s leaders, as a team, must maintain the country’s position in the world, nurture friendly relationships, and address emerging issues. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong expresses confidence in the ministers’ readiness to take over, ensuring a smooth transition.
Singapore’s Journey to Good Governance: PM Lee reflects on the circumstances that led to Singapore’s success under Lee Kuan Yew’s leadership. The international situation was dire, but Singapore worked hard and seized opportunities to maximize its chances. The PAP’s dominance in Parliament allowed for focused development, nation-building, and leadership cultivation.
The Role of the Left-wing Opposition Party: The left-wing Opposition Party’s decision to boycott Parliament and abandon the field to the PAP inadvertently contributed to Singapore’s political stability. This allowed the PAP to expand, take over, and establish absolute control in Parliament.
Focus on Development and Nation-Building: Singapore’s leadership was able to concentrate on development, growth, and nation-building without political distractions. This trend continued into the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, resulting in Singapore’s remarkable success.
Current International Situation and 4G Leadership: The current international situation is challenging, and the 4G leaders will need to adapt and respond effectively. PM Lee suggests that Lee Kuan Yew’s thoughts and approach may serve as a guide in navigating these difficult times.
00:35:50 Singapore: Navigating Change and Maintaining Success in a Shifting World
Singapore’s Garden of Eden: Singapore has achieved a virtuous cycle of trust between the government and the people, resulting in high-quality public service and effective governance. This virtuous cycle is unique to Singapore’s history and path and cannot be replicated easily in other countries. It is essential to maintain this trust and keep Singapore’s political and public systems clean.
Adapting Policies to Changing Times: Singapore’s policies must adapt to the changing global environment and the challenges of the modern world. The country can no longer afford to focus solely on education, healthcare, and housing, as it did during its rapid growth period. Social support and training are now necessary to help individuals transition to new jobs and skills and prevent a divided society.
Learning from the Past: Singapore’s leaders must draw inspiration from the ideals and objectives of past leaders like Mr. Lee Kuan Yew but adapt their strategies to the current situation. There is no direct answer from the past that can be applied to today’s challenges. Singapore’s leaders must think independently and find solutions that align with Singapore’s long-term goals and aspirations.
Conclusion: Singapore’s success is a result of a unique set of circumstances and policies that have fostered trust and effective governance. However, the country cannot rely solely on past strategies and must adapt its policies to meet the challenges of the modern world. Singapore’s leaders must draw inspiration from the past while thinking independently to find solutions that will ensure the country’s continued success.
00:40:13 Challenges and Solutions in Cross-Strait Relations
PM Lee’s Advice to Youths on Career Paths: PM Lee believes that young people should pursue their passions and interests, but also recognizes the importance of perseverance and hard work in achieving success. He emphasizes the value of a gap year as an opportunity for exploration and personal growth.
PM Lee’s Views on Cross-Strait Relations: PM Lee reiterates that the status quo in cross-strait relations depends on the concept of One China and the 1992 Consensus. He warns against any actions that could lead to a misunderstanding or mishap between the parties involved (US, China, and Taiwan). He recalls the EP-3 incident in 2001 as an example of a potentially dangerous situation that required delicate diplomacy to resolve. PM Lee highlights the dynamic and unpredictable nature of cross-strait relations, emphasizing the need for caution and careful handling of the situation.
Former Myanmar President Thein Sein’s Suggestion: President Thein Sein stresses the importance of direct dialogue between Taiwan and mainland China to find a solution to their differences. He recalls Singapore’s role as a meeting place for cross-strait talks in 1993 and 2015. He urges countries concerned about the situation, both in Asia and globally, to encourage Taiwan and mainland China to engage in dialogue and find a resolution. President Thein Sein calls on attendees of the conference to join him in advocating for this dialogue.
00:48:55 Questions to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong
Dialogue and Understanding: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasizes the significance of dialogue and mutual understanding among countries. Singapore has hosted successful meetings to facilitate dialogue between parties. The country is willing to continue providing a platform for discussions and fostering positive progress.
Singaporeans’ Grasp of International Relations: Singaporeans have extensive exposure to international news and travel, making them well-informed about global affairs. However, day-to-day concerns often take precedence, leaving limited attention for foreign policy issues. Ensuring domestic support for foreign policy stances is crucial for their sustainability.
Domestic Support for Singapore’s Foreign Policy: Singapore enjoys domestic support for its foreign policy positions, as evident in the strong stand taken on Ukraine. Straw polls indicate that Singaporeans understand the importance of standing up for sovereignty and UN Charter principles. Maintaining domestic support is essential for a sustainable foreign policy.
India’s Role in the Region: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong highlights the growing importance of India in the region. India’s role as a regional player is expected to expand in the future. The specifics of India’s expected role and areas of cooperation are not discussed in detail.
Vision for ASEAN’s Future: The Prime Minister expresses his vision for ASEAN’s future, but the specific details of this vision are not provided. No concrete steps or strategies to achieve this vision are outlined during the discussion.
00:53:11 ASEAN: Challenges and Opportunities in a Changing Global Order
Singapore’s Challenges with Misinformation: Singapore faces the challenge of countering misinformation and disinformation spread through various channels like WhatsApp, Telegram, and in different languages. The government uses POFMA (Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act) to flag untruths published online and ensure people are aware of false information. Singapore’s openness to information and its bilingual nature make it difficult to completely block out misinformation from the rest of the world.
India’s Role in the Region: India aspires to play a major role in the region and has actively engaged in international organizations like G20 and the Global South. India’s rapid growth and young population give it the potential to be a significant player in the world. India has its own strategic interests and calculations and is not solely a participant in the Quad or aligned with the consensus of other countries.
ASEAN’s Vision: ASEAN has a formal vision for 2040, which aims to create a group of countries that can overcome bilateral difficulties, cooperate economically, integrate regionally, and make their voice heard on the international stage. ASEAN members aim to work together and find value in the organization, despite different perspectives and challenges, such as varying claims on the South China Sea.
Abstract
Navigating the Complexities of Global Politics: The Interplay of China-US Relations, Climate Change, and Singapore’s Diplomatic Role
In the intricate web of global politics, the relationship between China and the United States emerges as a focal point, characterized by mutual distrust and competitive dynamics. This article delves into the multifaceted aspects of this relationship, exploring domestic factors influencing China-US tensions, the ripple effects of China’s growing influence in Asia, and the pivotal role of climate change as a platform for cooperation and contention. Additionally, it highlights Singapore’s strategic position in these dynamics, emphasizing its contributions to climate change initiatives, its nuanced approach to geopolitical tensions, and its role in fostering dialogue and understanding amidst global challenges.
Domestic Factors and China-US Relations:
The strained relations between China and the US are significantly influenced by domestic factors. In China, there is a perception of the US attempting to suppress its growth, while the US views China as a rising power challenging its global dominance. Election politics in the US and nationalistic sentiments in China further exacerbate these tensions. Both countries perceive each other as adversaries or strategic challengers, leading to precautionary measures that further increase suspicion and negative reactions. The domestic mood in both countries, influenced by political factors and national sentiment, contributes to the challenges in improving relations.
China’s Growing Influence and US-China Rivalry:
China’s expanding economic and strategic presence in Asia has profound implications for the region. Countries in Asia are navigating a delicate balance, seeking to maintain ties with both the US and China. The effective management of China’s rise is contingent on its own diplomatic strategies and the adaptability of Asian countries in balancing their relationships. China’s economic growth and strategic presence have significantly impacted Asian perspectives. It is the largest trading partner for most Asian countries, including US allies like Japan and Australia. The US and China are competing strategically, while Asian countries seek to develop relationships with both without being pressured or coerced.
Climate Change: A Platform for Cooperation and Challenges:
Climate change stands as a critical global issue, demanding concerted efforts for mitigation. Cooperation is seen in developing green technologies and carbon markets, yet challenges persist, notably in emission reductions and the debate over historical responsibilities. This impasse underscores the complexity of international cooperation on environmental issues. Climate change is a serious existential threat requiring global cooperation and technology development. Cooperative efforts include developing carbon trading markets, infrastructure for green energy trade, and transitioning to renewable energy sources. The challenge lies in cutting carbon emissions, which requires collective action and balancing individual responsibilities with historic contributions to the problem. Resolving the question of who owes whom compensation for historic emissions and addressing the concerns of countries with significant fossil fuel reserves are complex issues that need to be addressed.
Geopolitics and the US-China Relationship:
Countries worldwide are urged to maintain stable relations with both China and the US, fostering dialogue to ease tensions. A key aspect of this involves recognizing the One China policy and refraining from analogies to other international conflicts like Ukraine. Third countries should maintain stable relations with both the US and China, emphasizing that cooperation is essential for accommodating China’s growing influence. China and the US should acknowledge their differences, reduce tensions, and avoid misunderstandings, especially during election seasons.
The APEC Meeting Between Xi and Biden:
The meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at APEC offers a platform for acknowledging differences and easing tensions. Their long-standing relationship might facilitate better understanding and communication, which is crucial in an election season fraught with heightened rhetoric.
Singapore’s Role in Climate Change:
Despite its minimal emissions, Singapore is positioned to significantly influence sustainable practices and technology in the global fight against climate change. Its collaboration with other nations and expertise in sustainable practices contribute to broader global efforts. Singapore’s small contribution to global emissions is acknowledged, but the importance of collective action and sharing best practices to combat climate change is emphasized.
Singapore’s Active Involvement in Climate Change Efforts:
Singapore actively participates in international climate change discussions and negotiations, including at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The country is also co-chairing and working on developing carbon markets, establishing rules and standards to ensure their integrity and effectiveness.
The Creation of Respectable Carbon Markets:
Minister Grace Foo has announced the establishment of regulations for carbon markets in Singapore. These regulations aim to ensure the credibility and prevent greenwashing, safeguarding the integrity of carbon markets.
Singapore’s Role as a Meeting Place for Cross-Strait Dialogue:
Singapore’s willingness to facilitate dialogue between Taiwan and Mainland China exemplifies its commitment to peace and stability in the region. The nation’s role as a neutral meeting ground reflects its diplomatic ethos and understanding of geopolitical complexities.
Singapore’s Leadership and Policy Evolution:
From Lee Kuan Yew’s pivotal leadership to the current 4G leadership, Singapore’s approach to international and domestic challenges has been marked by adaptability and foresight. This includes evolving policies in education, healthcare, and social support to meet the changing needs of its population.
Singapore’s Virtuous Cycle and Adapting Policies:
Singapore has achieved a virtuous cycle of trust between the government and the people, resulting in high-quality public service and effective governance. This cycle, unique to Singapore’s history and path, requires constant maintenance and vigilance against corruption. The country’s policies must also adapt to the changing global environment and the challenges of the modern world, moving beyond a focus on education, healthcare, and housing to include social support and training for individuals in transition.
Singapore’s 4G Leadership in Uncertain Times:
Singapore’s 4G leaders must navigate the current challenging international situation with adaptability and effectiveness. They can draw inspiration from the ideals and objectives of past leaders like Lee Kuan Yew while thinking independently to find solutions aligned with Singapore’s long-term goals.
Youth Career Choices and Social Sustainability:
Prime Minister Lee emphasizes balancing passion with practicality in career choices, advocating for personal growth through experiences like gap years and underscoring the need for social sustainability in career development.
Taiwan and Cross-Strait Relations:
The delicate balance in cross-strait relations, hinging on the One China principle and the 1992 Consensus, is a critical aspect of regional stability. Prime Minister Lee urges caution to avoid escalations and misunderstandings, drawing parallels with historical incidents. Former Myanmar President Thein Sein stresses the importance of direct dialogue between Taiwan and mainland China, urging countries concerned about the situation to encourage this dialogue.
Dialogue and Understanding:
Singapore’s willingness to facilitate dialogue between Taiwan and Mainland China exemplifies its commitment to peace and stability in the region. The nation’s role as a neutral meeting ground reflects its diplomatic ethos and understanding of geopolitical complexities.
Singapore’s Foreign Policy and Media Landscape:
The understanding of geopolitics among Singaporeans, shaped by exposure to international news and domestic concerns, is crucial for sustaining a coherent foreign policy. The government’s efforts to balance open information access with combating misinformation through POFMA illustrate ongoing challenges in the media landscape.
India’s Growing Role and ASEAN’s Vision:
India’s aspirations for a significant regional role, as seen in its leadership of the G20, contrast with its economic metrics compared to China. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s vision for 2040 confronts internal challenges, such as differing perspectives on regional issues like the South China Sea, yet remains committed to regional cooperation and integration.
This article has explored the intricate dynamics of global politics through the lens of China-US relations, climate change, and Singapore’s strategic role. It underscores the importance of dialogue, understanding, and adaptability in navigating these complex international landscapes, highlighting Singapore’s contributions and the broader implications for regional and global stability. The US-China relationship is a defining factor in shaping the future of the world. The current trends of distrust and strategic competition are worrying and could lead to further deterioration.
Challenges with Misinformation in Singapore:
Singapore faces difficulties in combating misinformation spread through various platforms and languages. The government employs POFMA to flag false information online, but its openness to information makes it challenging to completely block out misinformation.
India’s Role in the Region:
India seeks to play a significant role in the region and actively participates in organizations like G20. Its rapid growth and young population have the potential to make it a major player, but it has its own strategic interests and calculations.
ASEAN’s Vision:
ASEAN has a formal vision for 2040, aiming to create a cohesive group of countries that overcome bilateral issues, cooperate economically, integrate regionally, and have a strong voice internationally. Despite differing perspectives and challenges, such as the South China Sea, ASEAN members are committed to working together.
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