Asia’s Dynamic Growth:
Asia has witnessed impressive economic growth, with China and India as key players. Southeast Asian countries are progressing in economic integration, while India is expanding its manufacturing and seeking global markets. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and AIIB aim to boost regional prosperity and connectivity.

Issues in Asia:
North Korea remains a pressing concern, along with maritime and territorial disputes. The changing strategic landscape requires accommodating a growing China in a constructive manner.

America’s Role:
Lee Hsien Loong questions America’s future involvement in Asia given its long-standing influence in the region. He emphasizes the importance of America’s continued engagement, especially in addressing issues like North Korea.

Comfort from US Officials:
Lee Hsien Loong expresses confidence in US officials’ understanding of regional issues based on their recent statements. He anticipates similar messages from President Trump during his upcoming visit.

America’s Importance:
Lee Hsien Loong stresses the significance of clarity in America’s stance, as both friends and foes need to know where the country stands. He highlights Singapore’s long-standing friendship with the US and hopes for its continuation.

Engagement, Not Disengagement:
Lee Hsien Loong finds comfort in the absence of discussions about disengaging from Asia within the US administration. He recognizes a perceived feeling in the administration that America may not be getting its fair share of benefits from its engagements.

America’s Desire for Rebalance:
America seeks a rebalance in terms of blood and treasure, market rules, and influence in the world. The world has changed, and America wants an adjustment.

Understanding America’s Dependence on the World:
US officials recognize that America’s fate depends on global developments. America’s open and generous approach has contributed to global stability and prosperity, benefiting others, including the US.

US Push for Open Markets:
America has been the most open market in the world, enabling stability and prosperity. There is a push for other countries, especially China, to adopt similar openness. Gradual change is necessary to avoid negative consequences.

Changes in America’s Approach to Asia:
The changes in US approach to Asia are a result of the election process. The new administration’s policies and actions will create new expectations and results. Some things will be done, and some will be undone.

TPP and Changing Global Trade Dynamics:
The United States’ withdrawal from the TPP has forced other TPP countries to adjust and make the best of the new situation. Negotiations are ongoing among the remaining 11 TPP members to salvage some progress based on their previous work. Had the United States not joined the TPP negotiations, a deal would have likely been reached that looked different from the one they ultimately agreed on. The withdrawal of the United States has complicated the TPP agreement, as it was structured with the US as the anchor participant, and changes to the document could unravel the entire scheme.

China’s Role in the Region:
China is closely monitoring America’s withdrawal from the TPP and the “America First” rhetoric, and is concerned about the implications for its bilateral relationship with the US. China’s long-term perspective and stable governance contrast with the rapid political changes in the US, making it difficult for China to establish a stable relationship with the US. Despite these concerns, China will continue to pursue its objectives assiduously and quietly, making friends and influencing people in the region. Other countries in the world will seek to balance their relationships with the US and China, given the changing dynamics of power and influence.

Balance of Power and Security:
Singapore’s late leader, Lee Kuan Yew, emphasized the importance of maintaining a balance of power between China as Singapore’s largest trading partner and the US as its primary security partner. The changing global order and the US’s withdrawal from the TPP may make it more challenging to maintain this balance, as countries reassess their relationships with the US and China.

Chinese Influence in the Region:
China’s increasing strength and influence require collaboration on various issues, including climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, and North Korea. A stable and evolving relationship with China, allowing them to grow their influence benignly, is ideal. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is seen as a positive framework for stability and security in the region, offering infrastructure, financing, and connectivity. Countries in the region are eager to participate in BRI but want to maintain open external links and avoid becoming overly dependent on China.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and U.S. Response:
The BRI poses a challenge to the U.S. as China’s economic and global influence grows significantly. The U.S. needs to find a constructive way to respond to China’s growing power and influence. BRI is viewed as a constructive way for China to expand its influence benignly.

South China Sea and East China Sea Tensions:
The East China Sea dispute between China and Japan is rooted in historical issues and could escalate due to a mishap or miscalculation. The South China Sea situation is different, as Southeast Asian claimant states have extensive relationships with China and do not want to jeopardize them over the dispute. This sets a limit to how far tensions can boil over, but also affects the expected outcomes.

U.S. Role in the South China Sea:
The U.S., as a non-claimant state, has interests in freedom of navigation, international law, stability, and security in the region. Singapore shares these interests and expects the U.S. to consider them in its policies and actions.

ASEAN’s Consensus-Based Approach:
ASEAN operates on consensus, not a unified stance. Member countries maintain sovereignty and come together when interests align. Strategic perspectives vary due to diverse geopolitical positions and histories.

Myanmar’s Complex Situation:
ASEAN’s involvement in Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis is challenging. Respect for sovereignty limits direct intervention. ASEAN issued statements and provided humanitarian assistance.

China’s 19th Party Congress: Xi Jinping’s Continued Leadership
Xi Jinping’s leadership solidified, marking a new chapter. Enshrinement of Xi’s words, not necessarily his office.

Implications for Regional Dynamics:
Unclear how Xi’s continued leadership will impact regional dynamics. Xi’s policies and actions will shape China’s role in the region.

Xi Jinping’s Consolidated Position:
Xi Jinping has strengthened his position within the Chinese leadership, with his thoughts inscribed in the constitution and a new line-up in the core leadership of the Politburo and the Central Military Commission.

Start of a New Era:
Xi’s leadership marks the beginning of a new phase for China, referred to as Xin Shi Dai or the new era, which is envisioned to extend beyond his two terms and reach 2050, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the revolution.

The Shift from “Stand Up” to “Get Strong”:
Xi’s era is characterized by a shift in emphasis from Mao’s “Stand Up” and Deng’s “Get Wealthy” to “Get Strong.” This indicates a focus on building a powerful and influential China on the global stage.

Xi’s 14 Points:
Xi outlined his vision for China’s future in his 14-point speech, emphasizing the importance of party leadership, economic growth, environmental considerations, improving people’s lives, international strength, and a strong military.

Uncertainties and Expectations:
The balance, tone, and wisdom with which Xi implements these elements remain uncertain. Observers will closely monitor how he navigates the various aspects of China’s development and its role in the international arena.

Generational Differences:
The older generation, having experienced the Cultural Revolution and hardships, values peace and stability. The younger generation, raised in a more prosperous era, may have different aspirations and priorities.

China’s Economic Progress and Its Uncertain Future:
Lee Hsien Loong observes that China has made significant progress since 1980, transitioning from a warrior-dominated society to one with a diverse range of professions, including engineers, poets, and artists. However, he raises the question of whether the younger generation, who have not experienced the turbulence of the past, might become more assertive and seek to display China’s strength on the global stage.

Singapore’s Investment in China and Its Observation of the Economy:
Singapore is one of the largest foreign investors in China, allowing Lee Hsien Loong a unique perspective on the health of the Chinese economy. He notes the energy and vibrance of China’s start-up companies and the quality of talent and innovation in cities like Beijing, Zhongguanchun, and Shenzhen. He compares the atmosphere to that of Silicon Valley and highlights the competitiveness of Chinese companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei.

Structural Issues Facing China’s Economy:
Despite the economic progress, China still faces structural issues that need to be addressed. Lee Hsien Loong mentions the need to deal with state-owned enterprises (SOEs), tax policies, the hukou household registration system, the agricultural sector, and the management of exchange rates, banks, and loans. He acknowledges that these issues are complex and require time to resolve.

Competence in Economic Management and Political Considerations:
Lee Hsien Loong expresses confidence in the competence of China’s economic managers and their understanding of economic principles. However, he emphasizes the need for the right combination of political and economic leadership to prioritize and implement necessary structural reforms. He hopes that Xi Jinping’s second term in office will provide an opportunity for more comprehensive reforms, but recognizes that the leader’s priorities and strategic preoccupations may influence the pace of change.

Risk of Confrontation with North Korea:
Lee Hsien Loong acknowledges the risk of miscalculation leading to military confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea. While North Korea has made strong statements, they are not suicidal and have a history of using threats to their advantage. The stakes are higher due to North Korea’s increased nuclear arsenal and powerful missiles. Applying pressure and engaging in dialogue with North Korea is crucial, but it requires collaboration with China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan. Dialogue is a reasonable proposition, but reaching an outcome before confrontation is uncertain.

Ethnic Diversity in Singaporean Cabinet:
Lee Hsien Loong prioritizes choosing good people for his Cabinet, aiming for a multi-ethnic representation that reflects Singapore’s society. Multiracialism is a core tenet of nation-building in Singapore, and the leadership team reflects that diversity.

Trump Administration’s Asia Strategy:
The Trump administration is still developing its Asia strategy, but they have communicated their commitment to the region. Secretaries Mathis, Tillerson, Vice President Pence, and NSA advisor McMaster have visited the region and reassured partners that the U.S. is not disengaging. Lee Hsien Loong expresses anticipation for President Trump’s visit and hopes to hear a similar message of continued engagement.

Chinese Party Congress Takeaways for Southeast Asia:
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Differences in Strategic Perspectives Among ASEAN Countries:
ASEAN countries have different strategic perspectives, especially regarding the South China Sea. Some are claimant states (Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia), while others have a stake in freedom of navigation and international law (including Singapore). Some landlocked countries adjacent to China have a different perspective due to their economic ties with China.

Challenges in Achieving Consensus on the South China Sea:
Achieving consensus among 10 countries with diverse perspectives is difficult. Consensus can be limited to broad statements like wanting peace, stability, and a code of conduct. There is no disagreement within ASEAN countries about wanting a code of conduct with China.

Negotiating a Code of Conduct:
The next step is to negotiate the Code of Conduct, which will take a long time. No sovereign country, especially a large one, easily commits to binding commitments, particularly when the status quo favors them. Reaching an agreement acceptable to both China and ASEAN countries will require several ASEAN chairmanships. Negotiations are expected to start next year but may not be completed within that timeframe.

U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region:
Lee Hsien Loong suggested that the Trump administration focus on maintaining existing cooperation and trade links with the region instead of initiating new ambitious trade negotiations. He advised against taking steps that could harm the substantial trade and investment ties already established. Lee expressed hope that in the future, a different configuration of circumstances might allow for a new type of trade deal.

U.S.-China Relations:
Lee emphasized the importance of establishing a shared frame of reference and mutual understanding between the U.S. and China, rather than attempting to solve problems immediately. He cautioned against making quick deals without a clear understanding of each other’s positions and a solid foundation for a long-term relationship. Lee suggested that President Trump and President Xi Jinping should establish a line of communication and develop an understanding of each other’s approaches and objectives.

Singapore’s Interest in the Arctic and Climate Change:
Lee explained Singapore’s interest in Arctic matters, particularly the potential opening of the North-East Channel as a shorter shipping route between Europe and the Far East. He highlighted the impact of climate change on Singapore, including rising sea levels and more extreme weather events, and the need for adaptation and mitigation measures.

Strategic Value of TPP:
Lee Hsien Loong emphasized the strategic significance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) beyond its economic benefits. It served as a means to strengthen the rationale for the U.S. to focus and engage in the Asia-Pacific region.

Impact of TPP’s Failure:
With the TPP not moving forward under the U.S. administration, Lee acknowledged the loss of potential upside and the need to move on. He raised concerns about the impact on American credibility in future negotiations due to the lack of follow-through on agreements.

India’s Role in the Region:
Lee sees India’s role as constructive and important in the regional architecture. He highlighted India’s inclusion in regional groupings like the East Asia Summit and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to balance the overall picture. India’s ability to reorient its focus from the subcontinent to the region, utilizing trade as a policy instrument, is yet to be seen.

Indo-Pacific Concept and East Asia Summit:
Lee welcomed President Trump’s intention to make a strategic policy speech on the Indo-Pacific region. However, he questioned the extent of India’s commitment to the concept and its willingness to play a more active role in the region. He highlighted the East Asia Summit as a forum that embodies the idea of an Indo-Pacific community and expressed hope for President Trump’s future participation.

Singapore’s Role in Cross-Strait Dialogue:
Lee acknowledged Singapore’s limited role in facilitating the cross-strait dialogue between China and Taiwan. He emphasized that Singapore provided a neutral venue for the Xi-Ma meeting in 2015. He attributed the current suspension of dialogue to fundamental differences in perspectives and trust between the two sides.

1992 Consensus and Taiwan’s Position:
Lee explained the 1992 consensus as the basis for China’s dealings with the Kuomintang (KMT) in Taiwan. He noted that President Tsai Ing-wen’s reluctance to use the same words and her preference for different formulations have led to a breakdown in trust. China’s stance is to maintain the 1992 consensus, fearing that accepting new terms could lead to a gradual shift towards Taiwanese independence.

Political Impasse Between China and Taiwan:
The Chinese government’s insistence on the “1992 Consensus” as a precondition for dialogue with Taiwan creates an impasse, as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen cannot accept it without losing credibility and support. The best outcome that can be hoped for in this situation is a standoff, preventing further escalation. China’s military buildup, including aircraft carriers, raises concerns about potential future conflicts.

Singapore’s Domestic Politics:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong acknowledges that no political party can remain in power indefinitely, including the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in Singapore. He emphasizes that he has no intention of stepping down prematurely but will not hold on to power beyond what is necessary.

Climate Change and Bilateral Dialogues:
Singapore has actively engaged in international discussions on climate change, including the Paris talks, to shape a global consensus. Prime Minister Lee has not held bilateral discussions with the United States specifically on climate change, but officials from both countries likely engage on the matter. Singapore’s focus with Indonesia is on addressing haze pollution from forest fires, which directly affects the region’s air quality and public health.

Leadership Transition in Singapore:
Prime Minister Lee reiterates his intention to step down before the age of 70, emphasizing that he is fostering a strong team within the Cabinet to determine the next leader. He acknowledges that this process may take some time as potential successors within the team work together to identify the most suitable candidate.