Introduction:
* Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited the Council on Foreign Relations for a special session to discuss U.S.-Singapore bilateral relations and broader regional issues.
* His extensive experience engaging with the United States was highlighted, including his military service, political career, and tenure as Prime Minister since 2004.

U.S.-Singapore Bilateral Relations:
* The Prime Minister expressed his desire to start the conversation by addressing bilateral relations between the United States and Singapore.
* The relationship has been strong and positive, with extensive cooperation in various fields such as trade, investment, security, and education.
* Both countries have a shared interest in maintaining peace, stability, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.

Regional Challenges:
* Prime Minister Lee acknowledged that the region is facing several challenges, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and global health crises.
* He emphasized the importance of cooperation and dialogue among regional countries to address these challenges effectively.
* He also highlighted the need for countries to adapt to a rapidly changing global environment and embrace technological advancements.

U.S. Role in the Region:
* The Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for the United States’ continued engagement in the region and its commitment to maintaining a stable and peaceful environment.
* He viewed the United States as a crucial partner in addressing regional challenges and promoting economic growth and prosperity.
* He emphasized the significance of the United States’ leadership in shaping the regional order and ensuring a rules-based international system.

Conclusion:
* Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s visit to the Council on Foreign Relations provided a valuable opportunity for dialogue on bilateral relations and regional challenges.
* The discussion highlighted the importance of cooperation, dialogue, and shared interests between the United States and Singapore in addressing regional issues.
* The Prime Minister’s insights and perspectives on the region’s evolving landscape and the role of the United States were significant contributions to the discussion.

Asia’s Economic Progress and Interconnections:
Asian economies are generally thriving, with China, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries experiencing growth. Regional integration efforts within ASEAN are underway. India, under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, is gaining momentum in economic development and seeking international partnerships.

China’s Expanding Influence:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative aims to promote regional prosperity and infrastructure development. Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) provides financing for infrastructure projects. China’s growing influence requires a stable and constructive accommodation within the regional and global system.

Evolving US Role in Asia:
The changing strategic landscape demands America’s active engagement in Asia. North Korea, maritime disputes, and the need to accommodate China’s growing influence require US participation. America’s role in maintaining peace, providing security, and opening markets is crucial. The US needs to decide its level of engagement, whether it wants to deepen economic relations or seek a different balance.

US Withdrawal from TPP and China’s Role:
America’s withdrawal from the TPP has led to disappointment among TPP advocates like Singapore. Regional countries are exploring options to build on the TPP framework without the US. China’s role in the region could be influenced by America’s withdrawal from TPP and its broader “America First” approach. China may strengthen bilateral relationships and expand its influence in the region.

Balancing Power between US and China:
Singapore’s late leader, Lee Kuan Yew, emphasized the balance of power between the US as the greatest trading partner and China as the greatest security partner. Maintaining a stable and gradually evolving relationship with China is crucial for regional stability. A tense relationship between the US and China could create challenges for regional countries. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is viewed positively in Singapore and the region, as it promotes growth and infrastructure development.

Overall View:
Lee Hsien Loong discusses the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s growing power, and the geopolitical dynamics in the South China Sea.

BRI:
BRI is a framework for Asian countries to participate in infrastructure, financing, and connectivity projects. BRI has the potential to foster regional prosperity, but it should not compromise the region’s existing open links with other parts of the world.

China’s Growing Power:
China’s GDP is projected to match that of the United States within the next decade or two. China possesses significant financial resources and global influence. The United States cannot treat China as a middling power with limited armed forces and global influence.

South China Sea:
The East China Sea dispute between China and Japan is historically contentious, with the potential for military escalation. The South China Sea dispute involves multiple claimant states in Southeast Asia, but none want to escalate tensions with China due to their extensive economic and political ties. The United States has an interest in freedom of navigation and international law in the South China Sea, which aligns with Singapore’s interests.

ASEAN’s Consensus-Based Approach:
ASEAN operates on the principle of consensus rather than majority rule. Each member state retains its sovereignty and independence. ASEAN positions are formed when there is an alignment of interests and a consensus of views among the members. In cases of differing opinions, ASEAN agrees to disagree and continues discussions.

Strategic Diversity Among ASEAN Members:
Member states have distinct threat assessments, fundamental interests, and geopolitical positions. Indonesia and the Philippines are archipelagic states with unique maritime concerns. Laos is landlocked and shares a land border with China, influencing its perspective. Vietnam has a long history with China, including invasions, wars, and periods of coexistence. Myanmar’s coastline is on the Andaman Sea, and its relationships with China and India are significant.

Singapore’s Unique Position:
Singapore is the smallest member of ASEAN, except for Brunei. It has a Chinese ethnic majority but is a multiracial country, not a Chinese country. Singapore’s perspectives differ from its neighbors due to its unique identity.

Challenges in Addressing Regional Issues:
ASEAN faces difficulties in addressing regional issues due to diverse perspectives among its members. The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar exemplifies this challenge. ASEAN discussed the crisis but struggled to take concrete action due to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states.

Xi Jinping’s Leadership and Vision:
Xi Jinping has solidified his position and introduced a new leadership lineup in the Politburo and Central Military Commission. His “Xi Jinping thought” has been inscribed in the constitution, establishing his preeminent leadership.

China’s New Era:
Xi Jinping has declared the start of a new era for China, extending beyond his two terms and aiming to reach 2050. The focus has shifted from “standing up” under Mao and “getting wealthy” under Deng to “getting strong” under Xi.

Economic Health of China:
Singapore, as a major foreign investor in China, observes both strengths and weaknesses in the Chinese economy. There is a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem, especially in technology, with companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei rivaling global giants. However, structural issues such as SOEs, taxes, and the hukou system need to be addressed. The right combination of political and economic leadership is crucial for managing necessary economic transformations.

Risk of Military Confrontation with North Korea:
There is always a risk of miscalculation, particularly with North Korea’s recent actions. The United States needs to carefully consider its response to avoid escalating tensions.

North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missiles:
North Korea has more nuclear weapons and powerful missiles than before, raising the stakes in the current situation. However, this does not qualitatively change the picture since there has always been some risk involved.

Response to North Korea:
The United States needs to apply pressure on North Korea while also engaging in dialogue. Diplomacy is crucial, and China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan must be involved. Without the support of South Korea, decisive action against North Korea is difficult.

Dialogue vs. Confrontation:
Dialogue is essential, but it is uncertain if an outcome can be reached before a confrontation occurs.

Managing Ethnic Diversity in Singapore’s Cabinet:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong selects good people for his cabinet, aiming for a multi-ethnic representation. Multiracialism is a core tenet of nation-building in Singapore, and the leadership team reflects this diversity.

Trump Administration’s Asia Strategy:
The Trump administration is still developing its Asia strategy but has sent reassuring messages. Secretaries Mathis, Tillerson, Vice President Pence, and NSA advisor McMaster have visited the region and affirmed the US’s commitment to engagement. Singapore looks forward to hearing the same message from President Trump during his upcoming visit.

Chinese Party Congress Takeaways for Southeast Asia:
Southeast Asia expects China to continue in its current direction based on the outcomes of the Party Congress. The leadership team is as expected, with President Xi Jinping firmly in control. Southeast Asia seeks to expand cooperation with China while adjusting to the new power balance.

ASEAN Unity on the South China Sea:
There have been difficulties achieving consensus on the South China Sea issue within ASEAN, especially regarding a code of conduct. Singapore’s Prime Minister sees better prospects for ASEAN unity going forward, which is crucial for forging a diplomatic solution.

ASEAN’s Perspective on the South China Sea:
ASEAN countries have diverse strategic perspectives due to differing claims and interests in the South China Sea. Consensus among the 10 ASEAN countries is challenging, but they share a desire for peace, stability, and a code of conduct with China. Negotiating a code of conduct with China will be a lengthy process.

Trade with China:
TPP is no longer viable, and it is not the right time to start new ambitious trade negotiations. The US should focus on maintaining existing trade and investment links with China and avoid harming them. A new trade alignment may be possible in the future under different circumstances.

US-China Relations:
The US and China should focus on establishing a shared frame of reference and mutual understanding. Quick deals may not lead to fundamental breakthroughs or long-term sound relationships. It is important to have a clear understanding of each other’s positions and a line of communication. The 19th Party Congress and the meeting between President Trump and President Xi could provide a basis for future cooperation. The Chinese have a strategic view, while American presidents are limited by their inability to commit their successors. The US should set the tone and establish an understanding with China during the four-year term.

Singapore’s Interest in the Arctic:
Singapore has joined the Arctic Council as an observer to stay informed about developments in the region. The potential opening of the Northeast Channel, a shorter route from Europe to the Far East via the Arctic, is of strategic importance to Singapore as a major port in Southeast Asia.

Climate Change and Singapore:
Singapore is experiencing the effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and potentially longer periods of drought. The country is closely monitoring these changes and taking steps to mitigate their impact.

U.S.-Singapore Trade:
Singapore has not experienced significant concerns with doing business in the United States, but it monitors counter-trade measures and investment restrictions. Past cases involving CFIUS restrictions have been resolved through discussions with previous administrations.

TPP and U.S. Strategic Position in the Region:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong maintains his view that the TPP had strategic benefits beyond its economic value. The failure of the United States to follow through with the TPP has resulted in the loss of these benefits and may impact American credibility in negotiations.

India’s Role in the Strategic Relationships between China and the United States:
India has the potential to play a larger role in the region, given its significant population and growing economy. The dynamics of the relationship between India, China, and the United States are complex and evolving.

Singapore’s Role in Regional Architecture:
Lee Hsien Loong emphasizes the disparity between China’s economic and international influence compared to India. He believes India plays a constructive and important role in the architecture of the region. The East Asia Summit includes Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, India, Australia, and New Zealand to promote regional cooperation. The RCEP trade agreement also includes India to encourage its active participation and balance the overall picture. President Trump’s proposed strategic policy speech on the Indo-Pacific is the right approach, but India’s response and engagement are yet to be seen. Singapore hopes India’s “Act East” policy will lead to greater integration into the region. The East Asia Summit is the primary forum for embodying the idea of an Indo-Pacific community, and Singapore hopes President Trump can attend in future years.

Singapore’s Role in Cross-Strait Dialogue:
Singapore’s role in facilitating cross-strait dialogue is limited. Singapore hosted the CIMA meeting in 2015 as a neutral venue for both sides. The lack of progress in resuming dialogue stems from differences in perspectives and trust between China and Taiwan. The 1992 consensus served as the basis for China’s engagement with Taiwan’s KMT, but Tsai Ing-wen’s preference for different wording creates challenges.

China-Taiwan Relations:
China’s firm stance against any shift from the 1992 consensus on Taiwan complicates efforts to find a solution. China views any change in wording as a slippery slope toward Taiwanese independence. Tsai Ing-wen’s commitment to her base makes it challenging for her to embrace the 1992 consensus. The current impasse between China and Taiwan leaves little room for progress or improvement in relations. China’s military buildup adds to the tensions in the region.

Climate Change Concerns:
Singapore recognizes climate change as a significant global issue. Singapore played an active role in shaping the Paris Agreement consensus. Bilateral discussions with the United States on climate change have not taken place at the prime ministerial level, but environmental officials may have engaged on the matter.

Political Transitions in Singapore:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong acknowledges that no party can stay in power indefinitely. He emphasizes that he does not want to hasten a transition of power in Singapore before it is necessary.

Singapore’s Role in Climate Change:
Singapore will do its part in reducing emissions, even though its small size means its impact on the climate is limited. Singapore aims to peak its emissions by 2030 and has set a target of reducing emissions by 36% from 2005 levels by 2030.

Haze in Southeast Asia:
The haze in Southeast Asia is a direct pollution problem rather than a climate change issue. ASEAN countries are working together to address the haze problem, with Indonesia taking significant steps to reduce forest fires and associated haze. Forest fires in Indonesia and other countries can release gigatons of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the emissions of a country like Germany.

Climate Change Implications of Forest Fires:
Forest fires release large amounts of CO2 emissions, contributing to global warming. The CO2 emissions from forest fires are not beneficial and do not serve any purpose.

Lee Hsien Loong’s Thoughts on His Retirement:
Lee Hsien Loong intends to retire as Prime Minister before the age of 70. He has a team of strong leaders in the Cabinet who will work together to determine the next leader.