Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore Prime Minister) – Shangri-La Dialogue Opens (Jun 2019)


Chapters

00:00:00 Keynote Address and IISS Research Program Evolution
00:15:20 China and the United States: Navigating the Changing World Order
00:29:48 Avoiding US-China Conflict in a Globalized World
00:36:05 US-China Tensions and Domestic Pressures
00:38:35 Reforming the Global Economic Architecture
00:44:10 BRI: Opportunities and Challenges for Regional Integration
00:48:52 Power Dynamics, Conflict Avoidance, and the Role of Small Countries in US-China
00:59:50 Navigating Trust and Security Challenges in the Era of 5G Networks
01:11:23 Challenges of Great Power Diplomacy
01:13:47 US Experience in Asia and Implications for Regional Stability

Abstract

Shaping Global Dynamics through Strategic Autonomy, Regional Cooperation, and Technology Security

In an era marked by shifting global dynamics, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has significantly adapted its research program to provide pivotal insights for policymakers and experts. A paramount development is the comprehensive assessment of European strategic autonomy, proposing an investment of US$288 billion to US$357 billion for NATO defense capabilities. Concurrently, the IISS delves into the intricacies of Iran’s influence networks and pioneers a methodology to gauge cyber power. In Asia-Pacific, the IISS scrutinizes domestic politics’ impact on regional policies, with Japan’s significant contribution enhancing the institute’s scope. At this historical juncture, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s keynote address underscores the criticality of understanding Southeast Asia’s past to navigate the present strategic landscape. Lee emphasizes ASEAN’s formation, post-Cold War developments, and the nuanced relationship between the US and China, reflecting on strategic distrust, the lack of an ideological divide, and the complexities of economic interdependence. This intricate web of global relations underscores the importance of multilateral cooperation, as seen in the reform needs of the WTO and Singapore’s advocacy for multilateralism. The article further explores regional cooperation dynamics, including the Belt and Road Initiative and Indo-Pacific strategies, while addressing the challenges and opportunities in US-China relations from the perspective of smaller countries. Finally, it delves into Singapore’s cautious approach to 5G network security and China’s evolving relations with Asian countries, highlighting the nuances of being a great power and the enduring US influence in Asia.

Main Ideas and Expansion

IISS Research Program Evolution

The IISS’s evolution reflects its commitment to providing essential data and analysis for informed decision-making. This encompasses a broad spectrum of areas including strategic autonomy, cyber power, and regional geopolitical dynamics. The research program has expanded to provide policymakers, corporate leaders, and experts with data and analysis on these issues, enabling them to make informed decisions and navigate the complex global landscape.

European Strategic Autonomy Cost Assessment

The financial implications of European strategic autonomy are substantial, with investments needed to fill capability gaps for NATO defense. This highlights Europe’s increasing focus on self-reliance in defense and security. The assessment found that NATO members need to invest between $288 billion and $357 billion to fill capability gaps and defend against a state-level military attack. This investment would allow a NATO-Europe force to prevail in a limited regional war against a peer adversary.

Iran’s Influence Networks Analysis

Understanding Iran’s influence networks offers insights into its operations and strategic directions, critical for regional stability and global security strategies. The IISS will publish a strategic dossier on Iran’s influence networks, providing a refined analysis of their command and control mechanisms and strategic directions. This analysis will help policymakers and security experts better understand Iran’s regional and international ambitions and develop effective strategies to address them.

Cyber Power Measurement Methodology

The development of a cyber power measurement methodology is a leap forward in assessing national cyber capabilities, reflecting the growing importance of cybersecurity in international relations. The IISS is developing a methodology to measure cyber power, assessing countries’ standing and determining necessary actions to enhance capabilities. This methodology will provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating cyber power and assist policymakers in developing strategies to strengthen their cyber capabilities and protect their national interests in cyberspace.

Asia-Pacific Research

The IISS’s focus on Asia-Pacific, including the Belt and Road Initiative and North Korea’s nuclear challenge, underscores the region’s strategic significance in global geopolitics. The IISS is examining the impact of domestic politics in Southeast Asian countries on regional and international policies. A major assessment of the Belt and Road Initiative’s geoeconomic, trade, investment, energy, and geopolitical implications is underway. This research will provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region and help policymakers navigate the complex challenges and opportunities it presents.

Japan Chair and Senior Fellow Appointment

Japan’s investment in the IISS enhances the institute’s research capabilities in Asia-Pacific, indicating Japan’s active role in shaping regional security dialogues. The appointment of a Japan Chair and Senior Fellow to the IISS underscores Japan’s commitment to contributing to regional security and stability. This appointment will strengthen the IISS’s research capacity in Asia-Pacific and provide valuable insights into the region’s strategic dynamics.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s Keynote Address

Lee’s address at a global turning point draws attention to the historical context of Southeast Asia, offering a lens through which to understand current strategic challenges, especially with respect to US-China relations. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s keynote address at the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue provided a comprehensive historical perspective on Southeast Asia’s involvement in the “great game of nations” and current strategic dynamics. He highlighted the region’s history of rivalry, conflict, and proxy wars, as well as its remarkable progress through dialogue, cooperation, and integration.

ASEAN’s Formation and Impact

The formation of ASEAN and its role in fostering regional cooperation and economic prosperity exemplifies the power of diplomatic initiatives in achieving stability and growth. ASEAN’s formation in 1967 marked a significant step towards regional cooperation and economic prosperity in Southeast Asia. The organization has played a vital role in promoting peace, stability, and economic development in the region.

Post-Cold War Developments and China’s Growing Role

The post-Cold War era and China’s rise as a major economic player have significantly altered the global strategic landscape, necessitating a recalibration of international relations. The end of the Cold War and China’s rapid economic growth have transformed the global strategic landscape. China’s growing economic and military power has shifted the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. This has necessitated a recalibration of international relations and a rethinking of security strategies.

Strategic Distrust in US-China Relations

The lack of strategic trust between the US and China presents a major obstacle to peaceful coexistence, influenced by differing political systems, economic interdependence, and domestic pressures. The lack of strategic trust between the US and China is a major obstacle to peaceful coexistence. This mistrust is rooted in differing political systems, economic interdependence, and domestic pressures. The US views China as a strategic competitor and a potential threat to its global dominance. China, on the other hand, sees the US as trying to contain its rise and prevent it from becoming a global power. This mutual distrust makes it difficult to find common ground and resolve disputes peacefully.

US Presence in Asia

The US has had a presence in Asia since the war, maintaining a powerful military presence with its 7th Fleet. Despite its dominance, the US has been welcomed in Asia, gaining friends due to its generous policies and broad-mindedness. This environment has allowed the US’s friends and neighbors in the region to grow, prosper, and compete peacefully for decades. It is challenging for one large country to choose another large country as a role model, yet there is valuable experience to be learned from the US’s approach in Asia since the war.

Multilateral Cooperation and WTO Reforms

The call for WTO reforms and the emphasis on multilateral cooperation reflect the evolving nature of international trade and the need for a more inclusive and effective global trade system. The call for WTO reforms and the emphasis on multilateral cooperation reflect the evolving nature of international trade and the need for a more inclusive and effective global trade system. The WTO is facing challenges due to the rise of protectionism, the growing importance of digital trade, and the need to address global imbalances. Reforms are needed to make the WTO more responsive to these challenges and to ensure that it remains a relevant and effective forum for global trade negotiations.

Challenges in US-China Relations

China’s Domestic Focus:

China’s leaders primarily focus on domestic issues, such as uneven growth, rural poverty, an aging population, and rising expectations for a better quality of life. Both the US and China are sensitive about being perceived as weak, which affects their ability to negotiate.

Historical Context of Sino-Western Relations:

China’s history with the West, particularly the May 4th Movement in 1919, shapes its leaders’ reluctance to accept unequal treaties. In 1919, China was forced to accept decisions against its interests at the Versailles Peace Conference, triggering protests and a nationalist movement.

Political Challenges to US-China Accommodation:

The zero-sum dynamic between the US and China makes it difficult to construct an agreement acceptable to both parties. Both countries need to reach an accommodation to focus on their pressing domestic priorities and avoid troubled relations.

Singapore’s Perspective on Global Cooperation in the Face of Growing Hostility and Instability

Reforming and Strengthening Multilateral Institutions:

Multilateral institutions, such as the WTO, need reform to address the challenges of the modern world. Bilateral negotiations often favor larger countries and limit win-win opportunities. Strengthening multilateral institutions can help small countries like Singapore navigate the complex global landscape.

Building Regional and International Cooperation:

Deepening economic cooperation among countries enhances shared prosperity and collective security. Regional trade agreements, such as the CPTPP and RCEP, can incrementally build support for lower trade barriers and higher standards. The CPTPP and RCEP have different footprints and standards, catering to different regional interests.

The Importance of the CPTPP:

The CPTPP preserves most of the negotiated terms of the TPP after the US withdrew. More countries have expressed interest in joining the CPTPP, including South Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. China is observing the CPTPP and may consider joining in the future.

The Potential US Return to the CPTPP:

A future US administration may recognize the economic and strategic benefits of rejoining the CPTPP. The US played a leading role in designing the CPTPP, and its return would strengthen the partnership.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP):

The RCEP includes key countries in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and India. The RCEP standards are less ambitious than the CPTPP due to the diverse range of participants. The RCEP aims to minimize perceptions of exclusion and foster cooperation among countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Lee Hsien Loong’s Views on Regional Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific

ASEAN’s Role in Regional Cooperation:

ASEAN has provided a platform for dialogue and cooperation among 10 diverse countries in Southeast Asia. ASEAN has deepened ties, maintained peace, and enabled its members to project a stronger external presence as a group. ASEAN operates on consensus and makes progress in various areas, but it is influenced by external forces.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI):

Singapore supports the BRI as a positive engagement mechanism for China in the region and beyond. Singapore participates in the BRI, promoting financial and infrastructure connectivity and providing professional and legal services. The BRI’s success depends on economically sound projects that benefit partners and an open and inclusive approach that avoids creating a closed block centered on China.

Balancing Ties with China and Other Countries:

Asian countries need to strengthen ties with China while also growing relationships with the US, Europe, Japan, and others. The BRI should integrate China with the world and strengthen globalization, not divide the world into spheres of influence.

Openness, Transparency, and Sustainability in the BRI:

China has recently emphasized the openness, environmental sustainability, and debt sustainability of BRI projects. These statements are positive steps, but their implementation will determine their effectiveness.

Indo-Pacific Cooperation Initiatives:

Various concepts of Indo-Pacific cooperation have been proposed, but they are less developed than the BRI. Singapore supports open and inclusive regional cooperation initiatives that deepen regional integration and strengthen existing ASEAN-centered arrangements. These initiatives should avoid creating rival blocs, deepening fault lines, or forcing countries to take sides.


Notes by: Ain