Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore Prime Minister) – Singapore Management University Ho Rih Hwa Lecture (Jun 2015)


Chapters

00:00:38 Singapore, Past, Present, and Future
00:06:38 Singapore: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next 50 Years
00:14:02 Singapore: Managing Growth, Demographics, and Identity in the Coming Decades
00:24:32 Singapore's Productivity Imperative and Demographic Challenges
00:38:38 Singapore's Aging Population: Challenges and Solutions
00:44:07 Singapore's Identity and Common Purpose in a Globalized World
00:55:15 Forging Unity in Singapore: Challenges and Opportunities
00:58:05 Singapore's Future: Challenges and Opportunities

Abstract

Navigating a Future of Transformation and Identity: Singapore’s Journey



1. Singapore’s Leadership Legacy and Aspirations

The Ho Rui Hua Leadership in Asia Public Lecture Series, established in memory of Mr. Ho Rui Hua, former Singapore ambassador and businessman, serves as a testament to Singapore’s commitment to leadership and visionary thinking. Through speakers like the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, the lecture series aims to inspire students and the public towards a future of innovation and growth. This initiative aligns with Singapore’s significant milestones, such as its 15th Anniversary and 50th Year of Independence, which offer opportunities to reflect on progress and honor the contributions of pioneering leaders like Mr. Lee Kuan Yew.



2. Lee Hsien Loong’s Perspective on Singapore’s Evolution

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, a Cambridge and Harvard alumnus with an extensive political career, brings unique insights into Singapore’s evolution. His lecture, focusing on Singapore’s past, present, and future, provides a holistic view of the nation’s challenges, particularly at its current inflection point. He emphasizes the need for confronting economic growth limitations and addressing the complexities of an aging population.



3. Economic Growth: A Balancing Act

Singapore’s journey from a Third World nation to a First World economy is a remarkable narrative of transformation. The economy has experienced remarkable growth over the past 50 years, with a 40-fold increase in size and a 13-fold increase in GDP per capita. However, this journey now faces the challenges of a maturing economy and slowing productivity. A realistic growth projection of 2% to 4% hinges on balancing foreign workforce needs and societal impacts, highlighting the necessity for a 2% productivity increase to sustain this growth.

Productivity and Economic Growth: Raising productivity requires societal, economic, and business transformations, involving new companies, turnover, and uncertainty. PSA, Singapore’s port operator, is an example of productivity enhancement through automation, such as automated rail gantry cranes controlled from an office replacing human operators in container yards. Technology displaces jobs across industries, even white-collar jobs like loan assessments, medical diagnoses, and engineering calculations. Up to half of existing jobs may be taken over by computers in the next 20 years. Singapore launched the SkillsFuture initiative to prepare workers and businesses for the future economy by providing training and reskilling opportunities throughout individuals’ lives.



4. The Essence of Identity and Nationhood

Singapore’s past success is rooted in its collective will and sense of nationhood. Maintaining this strong sense of identity is crucial for navigating future challenges. It requires a collective commitment to preserving the uniqueness of being Singaporean and fostering a community spirit resilient to the tests of time and global influences.



5. Demographic Dynamics: Addressing Fertility and Aging

The twin challenges of a low fertility rate and an aging population are pivotal concerns for Singapore. To counter the economic and social implications of a shrinking workforce and an inverted population pyramid, the nation needs proactive measures to encourage childbirth and support aging citizens, ensuring their financial security and social engagement.

Singapore’s Ageing Population: Singapore’s population aged 65 and above has doubled in the past 15 years to 440,000 and is projected to double again to 900,000 in the next 15 years. The population of working-age citizens has peaked at 2.2 million and is expected to decline in the coming years, resulting in a decrease in the ratio of working people to retirees from 8:1 to 2:1 in the next 15 years. Implications include an increased tax burden on the working population, challenges in maintaining a prosperous economy, and concerns about military defense. The government promotes active aging, community support, accessible homes, and financial assistance to address these challenges.



6. The Marathon of Productivity and Skills Development

In the face of technological advancements and global uncertainties, Singapore must prioritize productivity and skills development. Initiatives like SkillsFuture are pivotal in equipping Singaporeans for a rapidly changing job market, emphasizing the importance of continuous learning and adaptability.



7. Population Dynamics and Societal Impact

Singapore’s historical demographic profile, once a driver of economic success, is now marked by a shift towards an aging populace. This shift necessitates strategic responses, including immigration policies, pro-natalist measures, and significant healthcare investments, to maintain a balanced and vibrant society.

Demographic Challenges: Singapore’s low birth rate remains a fundamental issue, despite efforts to encourage marriage and childbearing. The government has implemented policies to support families, such as affordable preschool, maternity leave, and pro-family work arrangements, but more needs to be done to address the long-term population decline. Globalization poses a threat to Singapore’s identity, as citizens become more cosmopolitan and adaptable to living in different countries. The government needs to promote a sense of unity and shared purpose, while also preserving Singapore’s unique culture and traditions.

Traditional Fault Lines and Potential New Ones:

Lee Hsien Loong highlights Singapore’s traditional fault lines of race and religion and potential new fault lines such as LGBT issues, rich versus poor, and external forces like Jihadist terrorism.

The threat of a terrorist attack could deepen societal divisions and split the multi-religious society.

Influence of Big Powers:

– Singapore’s multi-ethnic composition and its citizens’ ethnic ties and business interests in various countries make it susceptible to foreign influence.

– This influence can sway Singapore’s policies and priorities away from its own interests.

The Importance of a Strong Singaporean Identity:

– Lee emphasizes the need for a strong sense of Singaporean identity to maintain unity and pride among citizens.

– He stresses the duty and responsibility to uphold Singapore’s values and interests for both current and future generations.

Shared Experiences and Bonding:

– The key to strengthening Singapore’s identity lies in shared experiences that foster a sense of camaraderie and unity among its citizens.

– Schools, national service, and living in HDB flats and estates are important avenues for fostering these shared experiences.



8. Identity Formation in a Globalized World

As Singaporeans become increasingly globalized, maintaining a distinctive national identity becomes more challenging. The government’s focus on reinforcing a sense of common purpose and belonging is critical to prevent societal divisions along potential fault lines such as ethnicity, language, or social issues.

Risks of Division: Singapore faces the risk of internal division along fault lines, such as race, religion, and economic status. The government needs to foster social cohesion and inclusivity to prevent the formation of exclusive identity groups. It is crucial to maintain a strong sense of national identity that transcends individual differences and unites Singaporeans as one people. Singaporeans need to feel a deep sense of connection to their homeland and consider Singapore as their true home. The government needs to create opportunities and a supportive environment for Singaporeans to thrive and contribute to the nation’s success. Preserving Singapore’s unique identity and culture is essential to maintaining a sense of belonging among its citizens.

Values and Identity:

– Shared experiences, such as crises and celebrations, reinforce core values like meritocracy, multiracialism, justice, and equality.

– Singapore aims to be a place where the human spirit can thrive and where tomorrow is always brighter.

Tests and Bonding:

– Hard times and crises present opportunities for bonding and strengthening the Singapore spirit.

– Examples of shared grief and resilience include the passing of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and the loss of school children and teachers in a training trip.

Proud Moments:

– Moments of pride include the SEA Games, where Singaporeans conducted themselves with class and sportsmanship, even when faced with challenges.

– Ashley Liu’s sportsmanship in the marathon exemplifies the values of Singaporeans.

Spontaneous Shows of Pride:

– The Singapore spirit is not manufactured by the government but is embraced and created by Singaporeans themselves.

– People stand up for these values in their daily lives, making Singapore a distinctive nation that people are proud to belong to.



9. Charting a Course for a Resilient Future

Singapore’s journey ahead is laden with challenges but also brimming with opportunities. Addressing economic, demographic, and identity concerns with astute leadership and collective resolve is key to ensuring a prosperous and cohesive future. By fostering a strong Singaporean spirit, embracing innovation, and nurturing inclusive policies, Singapore can look forward to a future that honors its past while boldly embracing the new horizons ahead.


Notes by: Alkaid