Background of Ho Rui Hua Leadership in Asia Public Lecture: The Ho Rui Hua Leadership in Asia public lecture series was established in memory of Mr. Ho Rui Hua, a former Singapore ambassador and businessman. The lecture series aims to inspire students and the public by inviting accomplished individuals to share their experiences and insights. The inaugural speaker was Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, followed by other prominent leaders.
Yong Peng Hao’s Speech: He expressed gratitude to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong for accepting the invitation to deliver the seventh lecture. He highlighted the challenges and promises that remain constant despite changing circumstances. He praised Mr. Lee Hsien Loong’s ability to connect with young Singaporeans. He introduced Mr. Lee Hsien Loong’s educational background and political career. He mentioned SMU’s 15th anniversary and Singapore’s 50th year of independence. He acknowledged the contributions of the pioneer generation, including Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and his parents. He mentioned the outpouring of grief and gratitude following the passing of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew. He recalled Mr. Lee Kuan Yew’s speech on entrepreneurship in the United States and the need for a change in culture and mindset to encourage entrepreneurship in Singapore. He introduced Mr. Lee Hsien Loong’s lecture entitled “Singapore, the Past, the Present, and the Future,” which takes a holistic view of Singapore at an inflection point.
00:06:38 Singapore: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next 50 Years
Singapore’s Challenges: * Singapore is entering a period of slower economic growth as regional neighbors reach similar levels of development. * The millennial generation has different expectations and values compared to previous generations. * The PAP faces the challenge of leadership succession and navigating a more diverse and politically involved society.
Importance of Population Growth: * Singapore’s economy needs to continue growing to improve the lives of its citizens and create better jobs. * Stagnation or decline in economic growth could lead to social problems such as unemployment and restlessness. * Over a 25-year period, demographic changes can have a significant impact on Singapore’s population and economy. * A higher total fertility rate (TFR) would result in more babies being born and a larger population.
Conclusion: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasizes the importance of focusing on the economy in the short term and population growth in the long term to ensure Singapore’s continued success and prosperity.
00:14:02 Singapore: Managing Growth, Demographics, and Identity in the Coming Decades
Economic Growth: Singapore’s economy has experienced remarkable growth over the past 50 years, with a 40-fold increase in size and a 13-fold increase in GDP per capita. However, growth has been gradually slowing as the economy matures and reaches its limits. Economic growth can be attributed to both workforce growth and productivity growth, with roughly half of the growth coming from each source in the last three decades. The recent decade has seen a decline in productivity growth, but the economy has been sustained by workforce growth and foreign workers. Singapore faces limits to its ability to rely on foreign workers for economic growth and must find a balance between growth and the impact on housing, public transport, and competition for jobs. The realistic GDP growth estimate for the next 10 years is 2% to 4%, with half coming from employment increase and half from productivity increase.
Population and Identity: The fertility rate in Singapore has been a concern, with the current TFR of 1.2 being lower than the replacement rate of 2.1. A shrinking population and an aging society could lead to a stagnant or declining economy and a pessimistic and status quo-oriented society. Singapore’s success over the past 50 years has been rooted in its collective will to succeed and its sense of nationhood. Over the next 50 years, Singapore will need a strong sense of identity and pride to overcome challenges and sustain its success.
00:24:32 Singapore's Productivity Imperative and Demographic Challenges
Productivity and Economic Growth: Raising productivity is a global challenge, and Singapore is no exception. Increasing productivity requires societal, economic, and business transformations, involving new companies, turnover, and uncertainty. Productivity improvement requires long-term commitment and effort.
PSA Example: PSA, Singapore’s port operator, automated its container terminals to enhance efficiency. Automated rail gantry cranes controlled from an office replaced human operators in container yards. This automation increased productivity, allowing one operator to manage multiple cranes.
Technology and Job Displacement: Technology displaces jobs across various industries, including white-collar jobs. Computers and apps automate tasks like loan assessments, medical diagnoses, and engineering calculations. Even professions like law and piloting are affected by automation. Up to half of existing jobs may be taken over by computers in the next 20 years.
SkillsFuture Initiative: Singapore launched SkillsFuture to prepare workers and businesses for the future economy. The initiative provides training and reskilling opportunities throughout individuals’ lives. This adaptability ensures that workers can change skill sets as jobs evolve.
Demographic Challenges: Singapore’s population profile has a significant impact on its economy, society, and security. Favorable demographics post-independence led to economic growth and prosperity. Fertility rates have declined, leading to an aging population and slowing population growth. Singapore’s population is now growing at its slowest pace in the last 10 years.
Implications of Demographic Shift: A shrinking workforce and a growing number of retirees strain the economy and social support systems. The government is implementing policies to encourage childbearing and address the demographic imbalance.
00:38:38 Singapore's Aging Population: Challenges and Solutions
Singapore’s Ageing Population: Singapore’s population aged 65 and above has doubled in the past 15 years to 440,000 and is projected to double again to 900,000 in the next 15 years. The population of working-age citizens has peaked at 2.2 million and is expected to decline in the coming years. As a result, the ratio of working people to retirees will decrease from 8:1 to 2:1 in the next 15 years.
Implications of Ageing Population: Increased tax burden on the working population to support growing retirement and healthcare expenses. Challenges in maintaining a prosperous and vibrant economy with a shrinking workforce. Concerns about who will defend the country in the military as the population ages.
Impact of Ageing Population: More sandwiched families supporting both children and elderly parents. Increased demand for healthcare and social services. Need to ensure that the elderly age well and live fulfilling lives.
Government’s Response: Promoting active ageing and community support to keep seniors socially engaged. Making homes friendly and safe for seniors to live independently. Providing financial support through CPF, Silver Support, and other schemes to ensure financial security in retirement.
00:44:07 Singapore's Identity and Common Purpose in a Globalized World
Demographic Challenges: Singapore’s low birth rate remains a fundamental issue, despite efforts to encourage marriage and childbearing. The government has implemented policies to support families, such as affordable preschool, maternity leave, and pro-family work arrangements. While there has been a slight increase in marriages and births, more needs to be done to address the long-term population decline.
Identity and Sense of Belonging: Singapore needs to strengthen its national identity and sense of belonging among its citizens. Globalization poses a threat to Singapore’s identity, as citizens become more cosmopolitan and adaptable to living in different countries. The government needs to promote a sense of unity and shared purpose, while also preserving Singapore’s unique culture and traditions.
Risks of Division: Singapore faces the risk of internal division along fault lines, such as race, religion, and economic status. The government needs to foster social cohesion and inclusivity to prevent the formation of exclusive identity groups. It is crucial to maintain a strong sense of national identity that transcends individual differences and unites Singaporeans as one people.
Importance of Home: Singaporeans need to feel a deep sense of connection to their homeland and consider Singapore as their true home. The government needs to create opportunities and a supportive environment for Singaporeans to thrive and contribute to the nation’s success. Preserving Singapore’s unique identity and culture is essential to maintaining a sense of belonging among its citizens.
Maintaining National Unity: Singapore must navigate the challenges of globalization and internal divisions to preserve its national unity and sense of purpose. The government needs to implement policies that promote social cohesion, inclusivity, and a shared sense of identity among all Singaporeans. By fostering a strong sense of belonging and pride in being Singaporean, the nation can continue to progress and thrive in the face of future challenges.
00:55:15 Forging Unity in Singapore: Challenges and Opportunities
Traditional Fault Lines and Potential New Ones: Lee Hsien Loong highlights Singapore’s traditional fault lines of race and religion and potential new fault lines such as LGBT issues, rich versus poor, and external forces like Jihadist terrorism. The threat of a terrorist attack could deepen societal divisions and split the multi-religious society.
Influence of Big Powers: Singapore’s multi-ethnic composition and its citizens’ ethnic ties and business interests in various countries make it susceptible to foreign influence. This influence can sway Singapore’s policies and priorities away from its own interests.
The Importance of a Strong Singaporean Identity: Lee emphasizes the need for a strong sense of Singaporean identity to maintain unity and pride among citizens. He stresses the duty and responsibility to uphold Singapore’s values and interests for both current and future generations.
Shared Experiences and Bonding: The key to strengthening Singapore’s identity lies in shared experiences that foster a sense of camaraderie and unity among its citizens. Schools, national service, and living in HDB flats and estates are important avenues for fostering these shared experiences.
00:58:05 Singapore's Future: Challenges and Opportunities
Values and Identity: Shared experiences, such as crises and celebrations, reinforce core values like meritocracy, multiracialism, justice, and equality. Singapore aims to be a place where the human spirit can thrive and where tomorrow is always brighter.
Tests and Bonding: Hard times and crises present opportunities for bonding and strengthening the Singapore spirit. Examples of shared grief and resilience include the passing of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and the loss of school children and teachers in a training trip.
Proud Moments: Moments of pride include the SEA Games, where Singaporeans conducted themselves with class and sportsmanship, even when faced with challenges. Ashley Liu’s sportsmanship in the marathon exemplifies the values of Singaporeans.
Spontaneous Shows of Pride: The Singapore spirit is not manufactured by the government but is embraced and created by Singaporeans themselves. People stand up for these values in their daily lives, making Singapore a distinctive nation that people are proud to belong to.
Tackling Challenges: The economy, population, and national identity are key challenges facing Singapore. Strategies for addressing these challenges include a strong economic team, SkillsFuture, immigration management, active ageing, encouraging marriage and parenthood, and nurturing values and common experiences.
Leadership: Good leadership at all levels is essential for Singapore’s success. Leaders need a sense of responsibility, commitment to Singapore and Singaporeans, and the ability to win support and rally the country together.
A Brighter Future: The goal is to create a future where the next generation enjoys a good life and looks forward to an even brighter future for themselves and their children.
Abstract
Navigating a Future of Transformation and Identity: Singapore’s Journey
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1. Singapore’s Leadership Legacy and Aspirations
The Ho Rui Hua Leadership in Asia Public Lecture Series, established in memory of Mr. Ho Rui Hua, former Singapore ambassador and businessman, serves as a testament to Singapore’s commitment to leadership and visionary thinking. Through speakers like the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, the lecture series aims to inspire students and the public towards a future of innovation and growth. This initiative aligns with Singapore’s significant milestones, such as its 15th Anniversary and 50th Year of Independence, which offer opportunities to reflect on progress and honor the contributions of pioneering leaders like Mr. Lee Kuan Yew.
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2. Lee Hsien Loong’s Perspective on Singapore’s Evolution
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, a Cambridge and Harvard alumnus with an extensive political career, brings unique insights into Singapore’s evolution. His lecture, focusing on Singapore’s past, present, and future, provides a holistic view of the nation’s challenges, particularly at its current inflection point. He emphasizes the need for confronting economic growth limitations and addressing the complexities of an aging population.
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3. Economic Growth: A Balancing Act
Singapore’s journey from a Third World nation to a First World economy is a remarkable narrative of transformation. The economy has experienced remarkable growth over the past 50 years, with a 40-fold increase in size and a 13-fold increase in GDP per capita. However, this journey now faces the challenges of a maturing economy and slowing productivity. A realistic growth projection of 2% to 4% hinges on balancing foreign workforce needs and societal impacts, highlighting the necessity for a 2% productivity increase to sustain this growth.
Productivity and Economic Growth: Raising productivity requires societal, economic, and business transformations, involving new companies, turnover, and uncertainty. PSA, Singapore’s port operator, is an example of productivity enhancement through automation, such as automated rail gantry cranes controlled from an office replacing human operators in container yards. Technology displaces jobs across industries, even white-collar jobs like loan assessments, medical diagnoses, and engineering calculations. Up to half of existing jobs may be taken over by computers in the next 20 years. Singapore launched the SkillsFuture initiative to prepare workers and businesses for the future economy by providing training and reskilling opportunities throughout individuals’ lives.
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4. The Essence of Identity and Nationhood
Singapore’s past success is rooted in its collective will and sense of nationhood. Maintaining this strong sense of identity is crucial for navigating future challenges. It requires a collective commitment to preserving the uniqueness of being Singaporean and fostering a community spirit resilient to the tests of time and global influences.
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5. Demographic Dynamics: Addressing Fertility and Aging
The twin challenges of a low fertility rate and an aging population are pivotal concerns for Singapore. To counter the economic and social implications of a shrinking workforce and an inverted population pyramid, the nation needs proactive measures to encourage childbirth and support aging citizens, ensuring their financial security and social engagement.
Singapore’s Ageing Population: Singapore’s population aged 65 and above has doubled in the past 15 years to 440,000 and is projected to double again to 900,000 in the next 15 years. The population of working-age citizens has peaked at 2.2 million and is expected to decline in the coming years, resulting in a decrease in the ratio of working people to retirees from 8:1 to 2:1 in the next 15 years. Implications include an increased tax burden on the working population, challenges in maintaining a prosperous economy, and concerns about military defense. The government promotes active aging, community support, accessible homes, and financial assistance to address these challenges.
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6. The Marathon of Productivity and Skills Development
In the face of technological advancements and global uncertainties, Singapore must prioritize productivity and skills development. Initiatives like SkillsFuture are pivotal in equipping Singaporeans for a rapidly changing job market, emphasizing the importance of continuous learning and adaptability.
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7. Population Dynamics and Societal Impact
Singapore’s historical demographic profile, once a driver of economic success, is now marked by a shift towards an aging populace. This shift necessitates strategic responses, including immigration policies, pro-natalist measures, and significant healthcare investments, to maintain a balanced and vibrant society.
Demographic Challenges: Singapore’s low birth rate remains a fundamental issue, despite efforts to encourage marriage and childbearing. The government has implemented policies to support families, such as affordable preschool, maternity leave, and pro-family work arrangements, but more needs to be done to address the long-term population decline. Globalization poses a threat to Singapore’s identity, as citizens become more cosmopolitan and adaptable to living in different countries. The government needs to promote a sense of unity and shared purpose, while also preserving Singapore’s unique culture and traditions.
Traditional Fault Lines and Potential New Ones:
Lee Hsien Loong highlights Singapore’s traditional fault lines of race and religion and potential new fault lines such as LGBT issues, rich versus poor, and external forces like Jihadist terrorism.
The threat of a terrorist attack could deepen societal divisions and split the multi-religious society.
Influence of Big Powers:
– Singapore’s multi-ethnic composition and its citizens’ ethnic ties and business interests in various countries make it susceptible to foreign influence.
– This influence can sway Singapore’s policies and priorities away from its own interests.
The Importance of a Strong Singaporean Identity:
– Lee emphasizes the need for a strong sense of Singaporean identity to maintain unity and pride among citizens.
– He stresses the duty and responsibility to uphold Singapore’s values and interests for both current and future generations.
Shared Experiences and Bonding:
– The key to strengthening Singapore’s identity lies in shared experiences that foster a sense of camaraderie and unity among its citizens.
– Schools, national service, and living in HDB flats and estates are important avenues for fostering these shared experiences.
—
8. Identity Formation in a Globalized World
As Singaporeans become increasingly globalized, maintaining a distinctive national identity becomes more challenging. The government’s focus on reinforcing a sense of common purpose and belonging is critical to prevent societal divisions along potential fault lines such as ethnicity, language, or social issues.
Risks of Division: Singapore faces the risk of internal division along fault lines, such as race, religion, and economic status. The government needs to foster social cohesion and inclusivity to prevent the formation of exclusive identity groups. It is crucial to maintain a strong sense of national identity that transcends individual differences and unites Singaporeans as one people. Singaporeans need to feel a deep sense of connection to their homeland and consider Singapore as their true home. The government needs to create opportunities and a supportive environment for Singaporeans to thrive and contribute to the nation’s success. Preserving Singapore’s unique identity and culture is essential to maintaining a sense of belonging among its citizens.
Values and Identity:
– Shared experiences, such as crises and celebrations, reinforce core values like meritocracy, multiracialism, justice, and equality.
– Singapore aims to be a place where the human spirit can thrive and where tomorrow is always brighter.
Tests and Bonding:
– Hard times and crises present opportunities for bonding and strengthening the Singapore spirit.
– Examples of shared grief and resilience include the passing of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and the loss of school children and teachers in a training trip.
Proud Moments:
– Moments of pride include the SEA Games, where Singaporeans conducted themselves with class and sportsmanship, even when faced with challenges.
– Ashley Liu’s sportsmanship in the marathon exemplifies the values of Singaporeans.
Spontaneous Shows of Pride:
– The Singapore spirit is not manufactured by the government but is embraced and created by Singaporeans themselves.
– People stand up for these values in their daily lives, making Singapore a distinctive nation that people are proud to belong to.
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9. Charting a Course for a Resilient Future
Singapore’s journey ahead is laden with challenges but also brimming with opportunities. Addressing economic, demographic, and identity concerns with astute leadership and collective resolve is key to ensuring a prosperous and cohesive future. By fostering a strong Singaporean spirit, embracing innovation, and nurturing inclusive policies, Singapore can look forward to a future that honors its past while boldly embracing the new horizons ahead.
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