Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore Prime Minister) – Bloomberg Interview (Feb 2020)

Chapters

Abstract

Navigating the US-China Rivalry: Singapore’s Strategic Perspective

Abstract

The escalating US-China rivalry poses significant geopolitical challenges, particularly for Southeast Asian nations like Singapore. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore provides a nuanced perspective on this complex dynamic, addressing key issues such as technology bifurcation, security concerns around Huawei, and the delicate balancing act between the US and China. Additionally, he discusses ASEAN’s role in this shifting landscape, Singapore’s relationship with both superpowers, the situation in Hong Kong, and the contentious South China Sea disputes. This article, structured in an inverted pyramid style, synthesizes Lee’s insights and Singapore’s strategic approach to navigating these multifaceted challenges.

Introduction

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore offers a nuanced and pragmatic perspective on the escalating US-China rivalry, acknowledging the intricate implications for Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries. His approach underscores the importance of strategic balance, recognizing the need to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape with care and foresight.

Technology Bifurcation and Security Concerns

Lee voices concerns over the potential technology bifurcation along US and Chinese lines, highlighting the increased costs and hindered technological progress that might ensue. He stresses the importance of interoperability and the practical challenges such as carrying multiple devices for different countries. In the context of Huawei and security concerns, Lee adopts a pragmatic stance, emphasizing the need for thorough evaluation and risk assessment rather than outright bans, acknowledging that vulnerabilities exist in all systems.

Recent Developments in the US-China Trade War and Technology Bifurcation

Singapore, as a free-trading hub, maintains amiable relations with both the US and China. However, the ongoing US-China trade war presents challenges, compelling nations to make difficult choices. Prime Minister Lee warns of a potential technology bifurcation due to the US-China conflict, which could result in higher costs, slower technological progress, and reduced interoperability. Singapore has set operational requirements for telecommunication companies regarding the use of Huawei’s equipment, focusing on cost, performance, and security requirements. The country’s approach emphasizes careful evaluation and implementing appropriate security measures rather than outright bans, acknowledging vulnerabilities in complex computer systems.

Security Cooperation and Balancing Interests

Singapore collaborates closely with both the US and China on security matters. Despite China being Singapore’s largest trade partner, the nation conducts assessments based on facts and risks, potentially leading to different conclusions compared to the US. The telecommunications sector particularly highlights the pressure Singapore faces to choose between the US and China. Moreover, instances may arise where Singapore is pressured to publicly address security issues.

US-ASEAN

Summit and Asia’s Significance

Singapore’s strategic position in the US-China dynamic is further highlighted during the US-ASEAN summit, where President Trump will meet with ASEAN leaders in Las Vegas in March. This meeting is an opportunity to discuss cooperation and demonstrate the significance of Asia and Southeast Asia to the United States.

Balancing US and China Relations

Navigating the relationships with the US and China is a balancing act for Singapore. Lee acknowledges Singapore’s long-standing partnership with the US while also underscoring its deep relationship with China, its largest trading partner. He advocates for independent assessments and decision-making rather than following either superpower blindly.

ASEAN’s Diplomatic Maneuvering

In the context of ASEAN’s relations with China, Singapore has witnessed strengthened ties due to increased investments, tourism, and the desire to benefit from China’s economic success. Simultaneously, Singapore values its relationship with the United States equally and has not shifted its focus away from America. This illustrates ASEAN’s broader strategy of maintaining independence and making choices based on national interests.

Economic Ties and Regional Dynamics

This section delves into the economic ties between China and Southeast Asian countries, spurred by China’s investments and outbound tourism. However, it also addresses Singapore’s strong relationship with the US, which remains vital despite the recalibration due to China’s growing influence. The complex situation in Hong Kong and the ongoing negotiations for a code of conduct in the South China Sea are also explored, illustrating the region’s intricate geopolitical dynamics.

Navigating the South China Sea and Hong Kong’s Challenges

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee believes that China has a vested interest in freedom of navigation due to its global integration and trade reliance. Negotiating a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is complex, requiring careful definition of disagreements and claims. Singapore continues to engage in negotiations, emphasizing dialogue over conflict. Regarding Hong Kong, the city faces significant challenges, including high housing prices and economic shifts relative to China, such as the emergence of Shenzhen as a significant competitor. The “one country, two systems” model faces strain, requiring restraint, judgment, and forbearance from both Hong Kong and China.

Singapore’s Global Economic Role

Singapore’s position as a free-trading hub and a key player in global supply chains is emphasized, along with the challenges posed by the current trend of supply chain diversification. Lee anticipates a “China plus one” strategy among companies diversifying their manufacturing operations, with Singapore playing a supportive role in China’s regional expansion.

Addressing Misinformation and Trade Talks

Singapore combats fake news through laws requiring platforms to post government-provided corrections, maintaining public order and transparency. The US-China phase two trade talks underscore the deeper issues that need to be addressed beyond the initial agreements. Singapore’s role in the changing global economy involves supporting China’s regional presence through financing, hosting regional headquarters, and collaborating on projects. Lee Hsien Loong also acknowledges the transition of Singapore from an Asia-West entrepot to a more Asia-focused entrepot, emphasizing the importance of maintaining connections with America and Europe, and avoiding a closed Asian bloc.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Lee Hsien Loong stresses the need for both the US and China to make fundamental adjustments in their approaches to resolve their trade and economic disputes sustainably. Singapore’s role in facilitating China’s regional expansion and fostering global cooperation is underscored. The article also addresses the issue of fake news, with Singapore’s laws aiming to tackle deliberate untruths online with implications for public policy or order. This approach focuses on requiring social media platforms to post government-provided corrections, allowing for expeditious court challenges to determine the truthfulness of the claims.

Lee acknowledges the existence of foreign operations, such as alleged Russian interference in elections, which aim to exacerbate social conflicts and stoke disorder. He emphasizes the need to recognize these vulnerabilities and address them, rather than being overly optimistic or naive about their potential impact. Transparency in dealing with fake news is crucial, ensuring that corrections are posted alongside original claims, allowing individuals to make informed judgments. Lee believes that the truth will ultimately emerge through this transparent process.

In his concluding remarks, Lee reiterates his plan to step aside as Prime Minister at the age of 70, which is in three years. He leaves it to the public to judge his period of leadership, expressing hope that his efforts will be reported accurately. Thus, the article encapsulates Singapore’s strategic perspective on navigating the complex and evolving US-China rivalry, highlighting the country’s diplomatic, economic, and security considerations in this challenging geopolitical environment.

Notes by: MythicNeutron