IISS Research Program Evolution:
The IISS research program has adapted to provide policymakers, corporate leaders, and experts with data and analysis for informed decision-making. The IISS conducted a study on European strategic autonomy, assessing the cost of closing defense capability gaps to defend European NATO territory against a state-level attack. The study concluded that European NATO members would need to invest between US $288 billion and US $357 billion to achieve this level of defense capability.

Iran’s Influence Networks:
The IISS is developing a strategic dossier on Iran’s influence networks, providing a refined analysis of their command and control mechanisms and the nature of strategic directions given.

Measuring Cyber Power:
The IISS is developing a methodology to measure cyber power, assessing countries’ standings and determining their needs to move up in rankings or become cyber powers of the first rank.

IISS Asia-Pacific Work:
The IISS conducts research on domestic politics’ impact on regional and international foreign policies in Southeast Asia. The IISS is assessing the geoeconomic, trade, investment, energy, and geopolitical implications of the Belt and Road Initiative, including the digital Silk Road. The annual regional security assessment covers issues such as the nuclear challenge posed by North Korea.

High-Level Attendance and Special Guests:
The Shangri-La Dialogue attracts high-level attendance, including China’s State Counsellor and Defence Minister, General Wei Feng He, and defense ministers from the UK and Australia. Singapore is praised for its diplomatic entrepreneurship and global reputation for strategic thinking.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s Keynote Address:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is invited to deliver the keynote address, given his reputation for strategic thinking and masterly surveys of Asia-Pacific issues. His address is highly anticipated, especially in light of current international fragilities and the need for a cool-headed approach.

Southeast Asia’s History of Colonial Rivalries:
The British, Dutch, Spanish, French, and Americans competed for control of Southeast Asia. No single colonial power dominated the region, resulting in complex geopolitical dynamics.

The Pacific War and Japanese Occupation:
Imperial Japan invaded Southeast Asia in 1941, leading to the Pacific War. Singapore experienced three years and eight months of Japanese occupation, causing oppression and suffering.

Cold War Tensions in Southeast Asia:
The region was divided between communist and non-communist states, with Vietnam serving as a proxy battlefield. China supported communist insurgencies and promoted armed revolution in non-communist countries.

ASEAN’s Formation and Significance:
In 1967, non-communist countries in Southeast Asia formed ASEAN, eschewing conflict and opting for dialogue and cooperation. ASEAN facilitated regional integration, economic growth, and links with advanced countries.

Post-Cold War Developments and Regional Prosperity:
The US emerged as the sole superpower, and Southeast Asia entered a new phase. Indochinese wars ended, communist countries opened up, and Vietnam joined ASEAN. The region benefited from US dominance in the Asia-Pacific, expanding trade, and international frameworks like the WTO and UNCLOS.

China’s Economic Growth and Global Impact:
China’s economy has grown rapidly, transforming it from a minor economic player to a major participant in regional and global affairs. China’s GDP per capita has grown significantly, making it the second largest economy in the world. China’s economic transformation has been from a centrally planned economy to a market-driven one, lifting millions of people out of poverty. China’s manufacturing and production capabilities have lowered costs for global producers and created a vast market for various goods. China’s success has benefited the world by preventing a failing state that could have caused armed revolution and destabilized the global community.

China-US Bilateral Relationship:
The US-China bilateral relationship is the most important in the world. China’s growth has significantly altered the relationship, with China now posing economic and political challenges to the US.

China’s Development and Global Benefits:
China’s development has benefited the world by creating a production and manufacturing base, lowering costs for consumers, and providing a huge market for various goods. China’s success has prevented a scenario where a closed and underdeveloped China would have exported problems, such as armed revolution and social unrest, to the world.

China’s New Reality:
China’s growth has shifted the world’s strategic balance and economic focus, requiring adjustments for both China and other countries.

China’s Responsibilities:
China must recognize its new situation as a stronger and more developed country. China should uphold and contribute to the global system that has benefited it, promoting globalization and rules-based international order. China needs to act in its enlightened long-term interests, beyond a transactional and mercantilist approach.

Trade and Economic Changes:
China’s WTO accession in 2001 led to a significant increase in its share of world trade. The current trade arrangements and concessions are no longer suitable, requiring changes for greater reciprocity and parity with trading partners. China should prevent the breakdown of international trade frameworks and implement timely changes to align with its advanced development status.

Security and International Influence:
China’s growing military strength and aspiration to become a maritime power are natural, but restraint and legitimacy are crucial. China should resolve territorial and maritime disputes peacefully through diplomacy and compromise, following international law. By acting responsibly and benevolently, China can build its reputation and influence in the world.

Adjustment by the Rest of the World:
Countries must accept China’s continued growth and ambitions, including technological advancements. China should be encouraged to play a constructive role in supranational institutions like IMF, World Bank, and WTO. China’s expectations for a say in creating new international rules are reasonable, given its past exclusion from the process.

US-China Collaboration and System Update:
The US and China need to work together to integrate China’s aspirations within the existing system of rules and norms. New international rules should be created in areas like trade, intellectual property, cybersecurity, and social media, with China’s involvement. Mutual understanding and reconciliation of interests are essential for the success of this collaboration.

Issues and Impasse:
Multiple issues like cyber espionage, 5G technology, freedom of navigation, human rights, and trade have caused tensions between the US and China. The trade impasse between the two countries highlights the need for adjustments to address China’s evolving role in the global system.

Strained Diplomatic Relations:
Trade disputes between US and China, if prolonged, can lead to broader bilateral issues, impacting investments, technology, and people-to-people relations. Actions taken by one side are perceived as challenges by the other, potentially leading to a more divided and troubled world.

US Perspective:
Negative views of China in the US have intensified. China is seen as a revisionist power, taking advantage of the US economically and militarily. Consensus is growing to contain China before it gains further power. Sentiment among businesses and academia towards China has shifted from positive to negative.

Chinese Perspective:
Views in China are also hardening. China perceives US attempts to impede its legitimate ambitions and impose its political system. Nationalist fervour is evident, with rebroadcasts of old Korean War movies and patriotic songs about resisting America.

Trade and Economic Issues:
US businesses feel let down by China’s trade policies, which disadvantage foreign entities while giving Chinese businesses freedom in the US. Loss of goodwill from US businesses is a serious problem for China.

Conclusion:
Tensions between US and China are rising, with both sides hardening their stances and viewing each other with suspicion. The broader bilateral relationship is at risk, with far-reaching consequences.

A Mutual Lack of Strategic Trust:
Lack of strategic trust between the US and China poses a significant obstacle to peaceful accommodation and compromise. Both sides are reluctant to adopt a more positive and benign interpretation of each other’s intentions.

Differences from the Cold War:
There is no ideological divide between the US and China, as China has embraced market principles while maintaining communist political structure. China has extensive economic ties with the world and benefits from multilateral institutions, unlike the USSR during the Cold War. China does not seek to export communism, focusing on non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs.

Complex Alliances and Economic Interdependence:
US allies in Asia and other partners have China as their largest trading partner, creating a complex web of economic relationships. A new Cold War would lack clear divisions between friend and foe, making the creation of alliances similar to NATO or the Warsaw Pact impossible.

Potential Consequences of Conflict:
Unlike the collapse of the Soviet economy due to defense spending, China’s robust economy is unlikely to experience a similar fate. The US, as the strongest country with superior military capabilities and innovation, is not in decline or withdrawing from the world. A prolonged period of tension and uncertainty would harm international efforts to address issues like nuclear non-proliferation, climate change, and the Korean situation. Conflict would disrupt globalized markets, production chains, knowledge sharing, and progress.

Avoiding Conflict and Promoting Cooperation:
Despite the need for security establishments to plan for worst-case scenarios, political leaders have a responsibility to find solutions to prevent extreme outcomes. Both sides face domestic pressures, with the US experiencing deep political divisions and discontent.

China’s Domestic Issues:
China faces significant internal pressures, including unevenly distributed growth, rural poverty, an aging population, and rising expectations for a better quality of life. The Chinese leadership is primarily focused on addressing these domestic issues, which influences their foreign policy.

US Political Dynamics:
The US presidential elections are approaching, and neither the Republicans nor the Democrats want to appear soft on China. Regardless of the election outcome, anti-China sentiments in the US are unlikely to diminish.

The May 4th Movement:
China has a long history of being pressured by Western powers, which has shaped its modern history and national identity. The May 4th Movement in 1919 was a significant event where Chinese students protested against the unfair treatment of China by Western powers at the Versailles Peace Conference. This event sparked a nationalist movement to modernize and revive China.

Zero-Sum Dynamic:
The US and China have a zero-sum dynamic in their relationship, making it difficult to reach an agreement that is politically acceptable to both parties. Both countries need to show that they have come out ahead in any deal to appease domestic pressures.

Regional Integration and Multilateral Institutions:
Small states like Singapore have limited influence on the US-China rivalry. However, they can contribute to regional integration and strengthen multilateral institutions to promote stability and cooperation in the region.

Multilateral Institutions in Need of Reform:
Multilateral institutions like the WTO are facing challenges and need urgent reform. The WTO is struggling due to the difficulty in reaching consensus among diverse members and the need for rules that address the changing global economy. The US has lost faith in the WTO and often acts unilaterally, leading to concerns among its allies.

Importance of Multilateralism for Small Countries:
Singapore recognizes the disadvantage of bilateral negotiations for small countries. Emphasizes the need to reform and strengthen multilateral institutions rather than blocking or crippling them. Win-win opportunities arise from cooperation with more partners, enhancing shared prosperity and security.

Regional Agreements as a Practical Approach:
Universal trade agreements may be challenging, so regional or plurilateral agreements offer a practical solution. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was formed for this purpose, and after the US withdrawal, the remaining members created the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The CPTPP is gaining interest from countries like South Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom, with hopes for China’s future consideration.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP):
The RCEP is another regional agreement covering countries in Northeast and Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and India. Its inclusive configuration aims to avoid the perception of exclusion against the US and its allies.

Singapore’s Perspective on Regional Cooperation:
Singapore is actively participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations and hopes for its completion soon. Regional cooperation goes beyond trade, and Singapore recognizes the importance of dialogue and cooperation platforms like ASEAN.

ASEAN’s Role:
ASEAN has effectively promoted peace and cooperation among its diverse members and served as a regional partner. ASEAN operates on consensus, making progress in some areas more challenging due to strategic influences. ASEAN has contributed significantly to its members’ well-being, regional security, and its centrality is recognized by partners.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI):
Singapore supports the BRI as a mechanism for China’s positive regional engagement. Singapore actively participates in BRI, promoting financial and infrastructure connectivity and providing professional services. The substance and implementation of BRI projects are crucial, emphasizing economic soundness, commercial viability, and long-term benefits. The BRI should be open and inclusive, avoiding the creation of a closed block centered on a single major economy.

BRI and Global Integration:
Asian countries need to grow ties with China, the US, Europe, Japan, and others to promote global integration. The BRI should strengthen globalisation, not divide the world into rival spheres of influence. China’s recent statements on BRI openness, sustainability, and green initiatives are steps in the right direction.

Indo-Pacific Cooperation:
Singapore supports open and inclusive regional cooperation initiatives that deepen regional integration. These initiatives should not undermine existing ASEAN-centered cooperation arrangements or create rival blocs. They should bring countries together, not divide them.

Different Values and Perspectives:
The US and China have distinct cultural values and political systems. Compromising may be difficult due to these differences. Diversity among countries is a strength, not a hindrance. Exchange of ideas and learning from differences can lead to progress.

Southeast Asia’s History:
Southeast Asia has experienced rivalry, destruction, and division. Isolation from the world economy has led to stagnation and conflict. International cooperation has created stability and prosperity.

Wisdom and Courage in Decision-Making:
Countries must make wise choices for openness, integration, peace, and cooperation. Preserving and expanding progress made together is crucial. The current generation has a responsibility to work towards these goals.

Conclusion:
US-China relations will shape international relations for years to come. Competition should not lead to conflict; cooperation is essential. Learning from cultural diversity and working together can lead to a better future.