Hal Varian (Google Chief Economist) – One Bank Flagship Seminar (Dec 2016)


Chapters

00:00:48 Network Effects in Online Competition
00:09:27 Data Network Effects and User Support Services
00:14:26 Learning from Data: The Continuous Improvement Cycle in Business
00:20:19 Data, Information, Knowledge, and Practice: The Importance of Investing in Learning
00:28:11 Network Effects and Economies of Scale in Digital Industries
00:35:55 Platform Competition and Monetization Strategies in the Digital Economy
00:39:56 Combinatorial Innovation and Mobile Internet
00:42:37 Search Advertising and Contextual Ads: A Drive for Personalized Services
00:46:20 The Complexities of Modern Ad Targeting

Abstract

Understanding the Dynamics of Digital Markets and Innovation: A Comprehensive Analysis

In today’s digital age, understanding the intricate dynamics of market competition, data management, and technological innovation is crucial. This article delves into these aspects, drawing from a seminar by Hal Barian, Google’s chief economist, and insights from various sectors, including Zendesk’s customer service model, European venture capital trends, and the strategies of tech giants like Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon (GAFA). It aims to provide a comprehensive overview of how network effects, data management, platform competition, and personalization are reshaping businesses in the 21st century.

The Seminal Concepts of Network Effects and Data Management

Hal Barian, a renowned academic with expertise in information economics and a former columnist for the New York Times, presented four main topics at a recent seminar hosted by the Program on Regulation and Governance: positive feedback sources in markets, decreasing returns to data, platform competition, and personalization.

Barian introduces the concept of network effects as a primary driver in digital markets. These effects, wherein the value of a product or service increases with more users, have been pivotal in the rise of online platforms. Direct network effects are seen when the service’s value increases with the number of users, while indirect network effects arise when increased usage of one product boosts the usage of a complementary product. These effects underscore the importance of market share in the digital field, where a larger network can exponentially increase a platform’s appeal.

Complementing network effects, Barian discusses the nuanced role of data in digital markets. While traditionally seen as a purely beneficial asset, he points out the diminishing returns to data. This concept suggests that as data collection increases, the marginal improvement in outcomes (such as algorithmic accuracy) tends to plateau. This revelation is vital for understanding how companies can optimize their data usage, focusing on quality over quantity.

Data-Driven Positive Feedback:

Data analysis can lead to positive feedback loops in businesses and organizations, leading to improved performance. However, utilizing data requires managerial focus and internal expertise.

Diminishing Returns to Data:

Statistical models show that the accuracy of data-driven predictions improves at a decreasing rate as more data is collected. The mean squared error decreases linearly with the number of observations, but it is always bounded by an irreducible error term.

Empirical Evidence from Machine Learning:

Machine learning models initially show a strong increase in accuracy as more data is used for training. However, the accuracy eventually asymptotes to the intrinsic error rate as the sample size increases.

Improving Performance Beyond Data:

Increased sample size alone cannot provide a magical improvement in performance. Better models, improved algorithms, and more features can also contribute to improved accuracy.

ImageNet Example:

The error rate in image recognition tasks on ImageNet decreased from 28.2% to 3.57% in just five years. This improvement was due to algorithmic and hardware advancements rather than an increase in the training data size.

The Data Pyramid:

The information economy relies on data collection, analysis, and knowledge translation into action. The data pyramid involves collecting data, analyzing it to produce information, extracting knowledge from the information, and applying the knowledge in practice.

Learning by Doing and Productivity:

Organizations that invest in the components of the data pyramid become more efficient over time through learning by doing. Learning and knowledge translation are active investments that exhibit decreasing returns but are critical for success in the 21st century.

The Rise of Micro-Multinationals and the Impact of Venture Capital

The transformation of the cost structure in the digital economy has given birth to “micro-multinationals.” Small companies now access technologies once exclusive to large multinationals, leveling the playing field in many industries. This democratization of technology is vividly illustrated by Zendesk’s model of providing user support on an a la carte basis, eliminating the need for in-house support centers.

Zendesk, a Danish company, offers user support services on a fee-based, per-usage basis, eliminating the need for businesses to create their own support centers. Online labor markets like LinkedIn and Kaggle provide access to a global talent pool, allowing startups to hire skilled workers on a project-by-project basis. Technology has enabled businesses to reach a wider customer base through online platforms, reducing the need for physical storefronts. The rise of cloud computing and other shared services has transformed many fixed costs into variable costs, making it easier for businesses to scale their operations up or down as needed.

The European venture capital scene further exemplifies this shift. Since 2010, there’s been a surge in new companies, with significant investment flowing in post-recession. This influx indicates a robust entrepreneurial ecosystem facilitated by accessible technology and funding. Venture capital funding in Europe has witnessed a significant upswing since 2010, with over 4,000 new companies founded and $27 billion raised. This signifies an increased ease of entry for new businesses, fostering a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Platform Competition and the GAFA Phenomenon

The article also explores the intense competition among the GAFA companies. These tech behemoths, originally focused on distinct sectors, now overlap in various services, from operating systems to streaming. Their competition is unique due to the malleability of digital products and the combinatorial innovation seen in the industry. This battle extends beyond traditional product lines, encompassing diverse monetization strategies like bundling, licensing, and advertising revenue sharing.

Changing Business Practices:

In the tech industry, GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon) dominate the global market and compete intensely in various ways.

Omnipresent Threat of Entry:

The malleability of tools and factors of production in the digital world makes it relatively easy and cost-efficient to enter new industries, fostering competition.

Data Centers and Software:

Companies can repurpose their existing resources like data centers, networking, software, and coders to enter new markets, such as creating a browser while already running an operating system business.

Competition Using Different Business Models:

Tech companies not only compete with each other but also explore various business models to monetize their services.

Operating System Monetization:

Apple and Amazon bundle their operating system with hardware, Microsoft charges a fee for licensing, Google open-sources its operating system, and other companies compete for advertising revenue.

Office Productivity Monetization:

Office productivity is either bundled with hardware, sold as a package, provided as an online service, or offered as a premium online service.

Personalization: The New Frontier in Online Services

Personalization has emerged as a key trend in digital services. Companies are increasingly tailoring experiences to individual preferences, a strategy especially evident in online advertising. Personalized ads, based on user data like browsing history, have become a cornerstone of digital marketing. However, this approach raises privacy concerns and underscores the need for balance between effective targeting and user consent.

Personalized Advertising:

Personalized advertising, utilizing user data like browsing history, has become central to digital marketing. This strategy, while effective, raises privacy concerns and necessitates a delicate balance between targeted marketing and user consent.

Embracing the Digital Transformation

In conclusion, the digital economy’s landscape is shaped by complex interactions between network effects, data management, platform competition, and personalization. Companies that understand and adapt to these dynamics are better positioned to thrive. This evolution also signals a broader shift in business paradigms, where data-driven decision-making and user-centric services are becoming the norm.

This article, by weaving together insights from various experts and sectors, offers a comprehensive understanding of the key trends and challenges defining the digital marketplace today. As businesses and consumers alike navigate this rapidly evolving landscape, staying informed and adaptable is more critical than ever.

Combinatorial Innovation:

Technological changes often involve combining inexpensive components to create new inventions. This process of combining existing parts to create innovative solutions is known as combinatorial innovation. Examples include the use of standardized mechanical parts in the 19th century and electrical parts in the 20th century. Today, digital tools like web tools, mobile phones, and software components make combinatorial innovation easier and more accessible.

The Internet of Things:

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a perfect example of combinatorial innovation. It combines mobile phone parts with data center services to create new devices for various applications, including homes, cars, factories, and offices.

Personalized Data: The Driver in the Tech Industry

Hal Barian emphasizes that personalized data, not just big data, is the driving force in the tech industry. Personalization services tailored to individuals provide a significant advantage, and companies compete to deliver the best personalization.

Online Advertising

Hal Barian highlights the importance of personalized data in online advertising, particularly search advertising. Search advertising leverages the search query as a strong signal for targeting users with relevant ads. Additional personalization factors, such as location, recent searches, and context, have a lesser impact. Contextual ads, like those based on the content of a web page, are less controversial compared to ads based on browsing history. However, ads based on browsing history, rather than current browsing or search behavior, are of particular interest to advertisers.

Targeting Ads:

Online advertising relies on targeting users to deliver relevant ads. This is done by placing cookies on users’ browsers to track their interests and serve ads based on those interests. Retargeting is a technique used to show ads for products that users have viewed on other websites. Interest-based ads are displayed based on inferred interests from users’ website visits. Targeting is time-sensitive as ads are most effective for users who are actively in the market for a product.

Interest-based Ads and User Control:

The interests used for ad targeting are inferred from users’ recent website visits. Users can view and edit their interest list in their ad settings to opt in or out of specific categories.

Positive Feedback and Data-Driven Business in the 21st Century:

Positive feedback loops, demand and supply dynamics, and learning effects are shaping online businesses. Data is used to improve products, compete with other platforms, and provide personalized services. These trends are expected to continue and expand across industries, driving the evolution of business practices in the 21st century.


Notes by: Random Access