Hal Varian (Google Chief Economist) – Aspen Forum 2014 (Aug 2014)


Chapters

00:00:00 Economic Principles in the Information Economy: Revisiting Strategies and Concepts
00:09:28 Information Rules 2.0: Platform Competition, Patents, and the Evolution of
00:11:44 The Evolution of Information Industries: From Web to Data
00:23:22 Multi-Layered Nature of Two-Sided Market Effects

Abstract

Economic Concepts in the Information Economy: A Retrospective and Forward-Looking Analysis – Updated Article

In the dynamic digital landscape, understanding the underlying economic principles that govern the information economy remains crucial. This updated analysis revisits Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian’s seminal work, “Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy,” juxtaposing it with evolving trends and future directions in the digital economy. It explores the book’s enduring relevance, contrasts it with contemporary works, and delves into topics like information goods, auctions, and market design, while adding insights from recent developments and hypothetical areas for expansion in a sequel, “Information Rules 2.0.”

Core Concepts and Timeless Relevance

Shapiro and Varian’s “Information Rules,” published in 1998, stands out for its enduring relevance. The authors adroitly avoided speculative predictions, grounding their work in historical examples and well-established theories. This approach fortified the book’s relevance and ensured its applicability even as technology advanced rapidly.

Contrasting Approaches in Economic Literature

Shapiro and Varian’s work contrasts with Kevin Kelly’s “New Rules for the New Economy,” which emphasized the disruptive nature of the network economy. While Kelly’s perspective garnered attention, Shapiro and Varian’s measured, principle-based approach demonstrated greater longevity in its applicability and insight.

Focus on Information Goods and Emerging Business Models

“Information Rules” delves into information goods and pricing strategies. The authors recognized the need for greater emphasis on advertising, particularly search-targeted advertising, which later emerged as a dominant internet business model. This hindsight highlights the dynamic nature of the digital economy and the need for continuous adaptation and analysis.

Auctions, Market Design, and Regulatory Optimism

The book touched on the potential of auctions and market design as ideal mechanisms for the internet economy, a foresight that proved prescient. It expressed optimism about the Telecommunications Act of 1996, aiming to promote competition, though the authors later admitted underestimating implementation challenges.

Broadband and Digital Distribution

While acknowledging the importance of broadband, “Information Rules” did not fully anticipate its central role in the digital economy and potential market power issues it could engender. This oversight underscores the rapid and often unpredictable technological advancements in the digital age.

Envisioning “Information Rules 2.0”

Looking forward, a hypothetical “Information Rules 2.0” could explore mechanism design, platform competition, patent issues, and the evolution of network effects in social networks and the sharing economy. These topics, including the role of data and information as commodities, the significance of two-sided markets, and the competitive strategies of tech giants like Google and Microsoft, highlight the ongoing need for economic analysis in an ever-changing digital landscape.

Emerging Trends

If written today, the book would likely emphasize advertising, particularly search-targeted advertising, as a major business model for the internet economy. The chapter on auctions and market design, removed due to space limitations, would have been particularly relevant in light of the subsequent growth of eBay and other online marketplaces.

Infrastructure and Policy

The book expressed optimism about the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and its potential to promote competition. However, in retrospect, the authors acknowledged that aspects of the act, such as TELRIC and unbundled elements, did not work as effectively as anticipated. The book’s focus on shrink-wrapped software distribution did not fully anticipate the importance of digital distribution and broadband in the evolving landscape.

Conclusion

Shapiro and Varian’s “Information Rules” has stood the test of time due to its reliance on fundamental economic concepts and a cautious approach to predicting the future. While certain aspects might be emphasized differently today, the book’s core insights continue to offer valuable perspectives for understanding the economics of the information economy. The dynamic nature of this field necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation, as highlighted by the evolving topics and challenges discussed in this updated article.


Notes by: Flaneur