Graham Allison (Harvard University Professor) – US-China Relations, the Economy, and the 2020 Election (Sep 2020)

Chapters

Abstract

Unraveling US-China Relations: A Path Fraught with Peril

The trajectory of US-China relations, marked by a combination of rivalry, interdependence, and shared interests, presents a complex and critical challenge for contemporary geopolitics. This article, drawing upon the insights of scholars Graham Allison and Hank Paulson, explores the intricate dynamics shaping this bilateral relationship, highlighting the tensions and opportunities that define the interactions between these two global powers.

Early Influences and Career Path of Graham Allison

Graham Allison’s emergence as a leading thinker in political science is rooted in his experiences and mentoring at Harvard. His journey, marked by a practical inclination and intellectual curiosity, led him to focus on real-world challenges, particularly in the field of international relations. Spending his formative years in North Carolina, Allison attended Harvard University, where he initially considered pursuing analytic philosophy during his time as a Marshall Scholar in England. However, upon returning to Harvard, he found influential mentors in the political science department, including Henry Kissinger and Dick Neustadt. These mentors inspired him to combine analytical thinking with practical solutions to real-world problems, shaping his subsequent work on China relations.

The Thucydides Trap and China’s Rise

Central to Allison’s work is the concept of the Thucydides Trap, which encapsulates the potential for conflict as China ascends to challenge the United States’ global dominance. Allison emphasizes the uniqueness of China’s rise, particularly its remarkable strides in eliminating abject poverty and becoming an economic powerhouse. His book, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?” explores the historical pattern of conflict between rising and established powers.

Structural Roots of Rivalry

The rise of China challenges US dominance, creating a classic Thucydides Trap scenario. This dynamic inherently carries a high risk of war, heightened by the potential for third-party actions or incidents to escalate tensions. In the US, the realization of China’s rapid ascent has sparked a sense of threat and shock. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s assertive leadership style and adherence to party-led autocracy exacerbate ideological divides and tensions with the US. This dynamic is further exacerbated by the Serial Awakening of many Americans, who are only recently becoming aware of China’s growing influence and are experiencing a sense of shock and threat.

Domestic Factors and Xi Jinping’s Leadership

In the US, the realization of China’s rapid ascent has sparked a sense of threat and shock. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s assertive leadership style and adherence to party-led autocracy exacerbate ideological divides and tensions with the US. The post-Cold War optimism for a global convergence towards democracy and market economies has been shattered by China’s continued authoritarian rule and economic success. The US presidential election further intensifies the rhetoric, complicating efforts to manage the relationship.

Shifting Dynamics and Heightened Tensions

The US-China relationship has experienced a marked downturn, characterized by growing anti-China sentiment in the US and a more assertive stance from China under Xi Jinping’s leadership. This decline is rooted in structural and leadership factors, raising alarms about the potential for conflict. Xi Jinping and his team’s governance style differs significantly from democratic systems. They believe in a party-led autocracy and view Gorbachev’s experiment with democracy as a cause of the Soviet Union’s collapse. This approach is offensive to many Americans, especially those who expected China to follow the US model of democracy and market economy.

Practical Solutions and Mutual Admiration

Allison’s pragmatic approach is exemplified in his admiration for Hank Paulson’s efforts to mitigate the Great Recession and his focus on addressing future crises. Paulson, in turn, lauds Allison for his ability to blend big-picture thinking with actionable solutions, underscoring the importance of practical insights in political science. Allison’s involvement in efforts to prevent the coronavirus crisis from escalating into a severe economic downturn further demonstrates his commitment to finding practical solutions to global challenges.

Allison’s Aspirations and Intellectual Journey

Initially not inclined towards political science, Allison’s academic pursuits were significantly shaped by his exposure to analytic philosophy and his mentors. His decision to delve into political science was driven by a desire to contribute positively to the world, particularly in addressing pressing global issues. His fascination with the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous historical episode, led to his first book on the topic and continues to shape his perspective on US-China relations today.

Concerns About War and US-China Relations

Allison expresses grave concerns about the prospect of catastrophic war between the US and China, drawing parallels with historical precedents like the Cuban Missile Crisis. He underscores the importance of understanding crisis decision-making to avert potential conflicts, especially in the context of US-China relations. His experience during the Cuban Missile Crisis brought home the possibility of a nuclear war and the fragility of human life, emphasizing the need to avoid such conflicts in the future.

The Geopolitical Importance of US-China Relations

Hank Paulson emphasizes the critical nature of US-China relations, noting the severe consequences of a deteriorating relationship. He highlights the need for public awareness of the geopolitical significance of this bilateral relationship and the risks of escalating tensions. Paulson stresses the need to make a compelling case to everyday Americans about the relevance of geopolitics and foreign affairs, underscoring the importance of understanding the interconnectedness of global issues.

Risks of Decoupling and Shared Interests

Calls for economic decoupling from China pose significant risks to both economies and the global order. Despite tensions, the US and China share a fundamental interest in preventing catastrophic conflict and addressing global challenges like climate change. The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated the need for US-China cooperation in managing global economic challenges. Taiwan emerges as a potential flashpoint for conflict, with the US facing tough decisions regarding intervention.

Shared Interests and Rivalry Partnership

Despite rivalry, shared interests in areas like climate change and pandemic response cannot be ignored. The concept of a “rivalry partnership” offers a framework for managing competition and avoiding conflict. The US’s economic success is pivotal for its foreign policy strength. Strategic decoupling in sensitive areas is necessary for national security, but excessive decoupling could harm both economies. Competition with China should be strategic, avoiding unilateral actions that disproportionately harm the US. US policy towards China needs to balance competition with cooperation, maintaining the country’s ability to attract global talent.

Complexity and Contradictions

Graham Allison highlights the complexity of US-China relations, warning against oversimplification. The relationship encompasses both competition and partnership, requiring a nuanced approach. Hank Paulson notes the intertwining of economic and security issues, emphasizing the need to navigate these interconnected fields carefully, especially in the context of dual-use technologies.

Evolving US-China Framework

Paulson calls for a new framework for US-China relations that reflects their evolving interests and acknowledges China’s significant role in the global economy. China’s potential impact on survival could be decisive. China comprises one-fifth of the world’s population, making it a prominent cultural and societal entity. China’s meteoric rise over the past 40 years has been unprecedented in history. China is on track to become the first major society to eliminate abject poverty, aiming to reduce poverty below $2 per day to zero. China’s transformation is a remarkable phenomenon, and its dynamic nature makes it an essential subject of study. China’s economy has surpassed that of the US when measured by the yardstick preferred by both the CIA and IMF. China has become the top trading partner for numerous countries, supplying essential items like face masks, protective equipment, and drug ingredients. China’s economy has emerged as a fundamental pillar of the global economy.

Conclusion

The US-China relationship, with its blend of competition and cooperation, demands a nuanced approach that recognizes the complexities and interdependencies of these two global powers. Crafting a new framework for engagement, while embracing shared interests and managing rivalry, is essential for ensuring a stable and prosperous future.

Notes by: ZeusZettabyte