Introduction:
Dr. Graham Allison is a renowned expert in national security and defense policy. He currently holds the Douglas Dillon Professorship of Government at Harvard Kennedy School.

Educational Background:
Dr. Allison obtained his bachelor’s degree in history from Davidson College and Harvard College. He then earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees with first-class honors in philosophy, politics, and economics from Oxford University. He completed his Ph.D. in political science at Harvard University.

Academic and Professional Achievements:
Dr. Allison served as the founding dean of the Modern Kennedy School from 1977 to 1989. He directed the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs from 1995 until 2022. He held the position of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans during the first Clinton administration. He served on the Defense Policy Board for seven Secretaries of Defense. He currently serves on the advisory boards for the Secretary of State, Secretaries of Defense, and the Director of the CIA.

Recognition and Awards:
Dr. Allison has been recognized with the Department of Defense’s highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, twice. His book “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis” is a bestseller and a required reading in many political science and strategic studies programs. His book “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe” was recognized by the New York Times as one of the notable books in 2004. His book “Lee Kuan Yew: The Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World” was a bestseller in the United States and abroad. His book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap” became a national bestseller and gained attention from leaders on both sides.

Introduction to Thucydides:
Thucydides, the founder of history, wrote the first history book about the Peloponnesian War, emphasizing the importance of learning from the past to avoid future mistakes.

Thucydides’ Trap:
Thucydides’ trap is a concept coined by Dr. Allison to describe the dangerous dynamic when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. Historical evidence shows that in such situations, war is more likely than not, with 12 out of 16 cases resulting in conflict.

The US-China Dynamic:
The current relationship between the United States and China fits the Thucydides’ trap model, with China’s rise challenging the US’s dominance.

Questions for Consideration:
What has been the most significant geopolitical event of the last generation? Candidates include 9-11 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, but Dr. Allison argues that it is the rise of China. What will be the biggest geostrategic challenge in the next 25 years? The US-China relationship and the potential for conflict are key considerations. Can the US and China escape Thucydides’ trap? The answer is uncertain, and the book explores various factors that could influence the outcome.

The Rise of China:
China’s rapid and comprehensive ascent in various dimensions has been astonishing and unprecedented in history. The implications of China’s rise will significantly impact the U.S.’s global influence and sense of identity. The current international order, largely shaped by the U.S. after World War II, has facilitated seven decades without major power conflicts, which is historically anomalous.

The Geostrategic Challenge:
The rise of China poses the primary geostrategic challenge for the U.S. in the coming decades. Maintaining the current international order amidst China’s increasing influence will be a significant test for the U.S.’s global role.

Escaping Thucydides’ Trap:
The U.S. and China face the risk of falling into Thucydides’ Trap, a historical pattern of conflict between an established power and a rising power. Business as usual will likely lead to a catastrophic war between the U.S. and China, but it is possible to avoid this outcome. The U.S. can escape Thucydides’ Trap by learning from historical mistakes and taking bold and imaginative measures to adapt and collaborate.

The Need for Extreme Measures:
The U.S. needs to recognize the gravity of the challenge posed by China’s rise and respond with extreme measures. This requires more imagination, flexibility, and adaptation than the U.S. has demonstrated so far.

China’s Rapid Infrastructure Development:
China’s infrastructure development projects, such as the Sanyan Bridge, are completed much faster and at a lower cost compared to similar projects in the U.S., highlighting China’s efficiency and speed in infrastructure development.

China’s Rapid Infrastructure Development:
Dr. Graham Allison highlights China’s remarkable speed in constructing infrastructure projects, citing the example of the Sanyan Bridge built in just 43 hours and the extensive high-speed rail network covering 16,000 miles.

Comparison with US Infrastructure Projects:
The United States’ sole high-speed rail project from San Francisco to Los Angeles, initiated 10 years ago with an initial completion date of 2017, is now expected to be completed in 2029, demonstrating a stark contrast to China’s rapid infrastructure development.

China’s Defense and Technological Advancements:
Dr. Allison points to China’s swift development of its military capabilities, including the creation of an F-35 equivalent aircraft at a fraction of the cost due to stolen designs.

Xi Jinping’s Leadership and Ambitions:
Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has consolidated power and declared that China will not become a democracy, emphasizing the Communist Party’s continued leadership in all aspects of society.

China’s Pursuit of Global Dominance:
Xi Jinping’s vision for China is one of increased strength and influence, with a focus on expanding its presence in the Middle East.

China’s Economic and Technological Supremacy:
China has already surpassed the United States in various indicators, including population, middle class size, billionaires, smartphones, computers, and supercomputers, marking a significant shift in global power dynamics.

Understanding the Rise of China’s Economic and Geopolitical Power:
China’s growing economy, surpassing the US in terms of purchasing power parity, has impacted the US’s sense of dominance and global leadership. China’s economic dominance in the South China Sea region, coupled with its aggressive geoeconomic strategies, has raised tensions with its neighbors.

Potential Consequences of China’s Ascendance:
Thucydides’ Trap: The historical tendency for conflict between a rising power and a ruling power. Inadvertent Escalation: Third-party actions, even inconsequential ones, can trigger a chain of reactions leading to conflict.

Historical Example of Unintended Escalation: World War I:
The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 sparked a series of events that culminated in a devastating global conflict. The war’s outcome led to the downfall of empires and significant societal shifts.

The Korean War as an Example of Unintended Conflict:
The US and China were not initially seeking war in Korea, but circumstances led to a conflict that resulted in numerous casualties.

Current Tensions between the US and North Korea:
The potential for nuclear strikes on US mainland cities by North Korea. President Trump’s threats to solve the North Korean problem if China fails to do so.

Potential Consequences of US Military Action against North Korea:
North Korean retaliation against South Korea, sparking the Second Korean War. Catastrophic consequences and severe casualties for the US and South Korea.

The Importance of Avoiding the Thucydides’ Trap:
Understanding the dynamics of this dangerous dynamic is crucial to preventing unintended conflict. Engaging in intellectual efforts to explore possibilities and solutions is essential for mitigating risks.

Dr. Allison’s Critique of the Rational Actor Model:
The rational actor model is insufficient in explaining organizational and governmental behavior in crisis situations. Organizational and governmental factors, such as bureaucratic politics, internal dynamics, and decision-making processes, play significant roles.

Clarifying Adversaries and Planning for Possibilities:
Identifying adversaries like Russia and China helps clarify the focus and enables planning against potential threats. Having clarity and planning against possibilities is crucial, but equivalent capabilities for imagining alternatives are lacking.

Imagination in Diplomacy and Statescraft:
The Defense Department often brings more imagination to the party compared to the State Department or other units. The case of developing the Cold War strategy, inspired by Kennan’s 1946 telegram, exemplifies strategic imagination.

Challenges of Strategic Imagination:
Arguing against adversaries and preparing for conflict is easier than adapting, adjusting, being imaginative, and accommodating. Solutions to complex issues, like the Korean case, require creative and potentially unappealing compromises from all parties involved.

Balancing Military Exercises and Troop Presence:
Adjustments in military exercises and troop presence might be necessary for diplomatic progress. Finding a balance between asserting military strength and accommodating diplomatic efforts can be challenging.

The Absence of Great Statesmen:
The lack of great statesmen like George Marshall, Kennan, Nitze, Truman, and Vandenberg hinders the stagecraft side of diplomacy.

The Significance of the Question Mark in “World War I, World War II, World War III?”:
The question mark in the book title highlights the uncertain nature of the strategic relationship between major powers. It suggests that the career paths of many individuals in the room may be shaped by this uncertain strategic landscape.

The Complexity of History:
As you delve deeper into any historical topic, you will encounter more questions than answers. This exploration helps deepen your understanding.

Answering Historical Questions:
Some questions have factual answers, such as Thucydides’s analysis of the causes of war (fear, honor, and security interests).

Unanswered Historical Questions:
However, many historical questions remain unanswered, such as the exact reasons for the outbreak of war between Sparta and Athens or the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s role in triggering World War I.

Imagining Future Conflict:
Dr. Allison envisions a possible scenario where the US and China could be at war, even though neither side initially intended it.

The North Korean Conflict:
A series of events, starting with Trump’s actions against North Korea, could escalate into a larger conflict involving South Korea and China.

Avoiding War Through Diplomacy:
Dr. Allison hopes that the US and China can recognize the danger posed by Kim Jong-un’s unpredictable behavior and work together to find a diplomatic solution.

Joint Action Against North Korea:
A cooperative effort between the US and China to address the North Korean threat would be a positive outcome.

Audience Question:
A cadet asks Dr. Allison how the world order would change if the US and China avoid war.

The Changing World Order:
Dr. Allison suggests that the world order would evolve, but the specific changes are uncertain.

Kissinger’s Book on World Order:
Kissinger explores the concept of world order, noting its complexity and variability. Absence of great power war for seven decades is a significant achievement.

Evolution of Order Over Seven Decades:
Cold War era involved intense competition between the US and the Soviet Union. Soviet Union posed a significant threat to the US, but its economy ultimately failed. China’s rise in Asia as a power comparable to the US presents new challenges.

Deal-Making with China:
Possibility of a 50-year agreement with China, recognizing respective spheres of influence. US commitment to Asia, including Hawaii, Guam, and its allies, remains strong.

Managing Order with China:
US military advantage over China in some arenas for the next decade or two. Need for strategic thinking and resourcefulness to maintain this advantage.

Uncertainty of Future Order:
Absence of great power war cannot be taken for granted. History shows that great powers often find ways to conflict.

South China Sea and US Strategy:
Complex issue of China occupying Spratly Islands and harassing Filipino shipping. US will monitor China’s actions over the next several years.

China’s Growing Power in the South China Sea:
China seeks to dominate the South China Sea, potentially turning it into a “Chinese Caribbean” where neighboring countries defer to China’s authority.

Two Possible Outcomes:
Theory one: China’s dominance becomes a reality. Theory two: Sufficient pushback from other countries, potentially leading to conflict.

Uncertain Future:
Dr. Allison emphasizes the uncertainty of the situation, noting that many Australians believe China’s dominance is inevitable.

U.S. Interests in the Region:
The U.S. has vested interests in the South China Sea, including freedom of navigation and maintaining relationships with regional allies.

Balancing Interests:
The U.S. must weigh the importance of these interests against the potential costs of conflict with China.

Possible Outcome:
Dr. Allison suggests that an adapted and accommodated solution may emerge, recognizing China’s growing power while maintaining some degree of balance in the region.

China’s Shift in Power:
Dr. Graham Allison shares an anecdote from a former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, Steve Bosworth, who observed a significant shift in the regional power dynamics. Bosworth noticed that during his tenure as Ambassador, the first point of contact for Asian countries in times of need was Washington, D.C. However, upon returning to the region after a 10-year absence, Bosworth found that China had become the primary focus and point of contact for many Asian countries.

China’s Regional Dominance:
Bosworth’s observations highlight the growing influence and dominance of China in the Asia-Pacific region. Countries in the region are increasingly looking to China for leadership, support, and guidance, rather than the United States. This shift in power dynamics has significant implications for the balance of power in the region and beyond.

Implications for U.S.-China Relations:
The growing influence of China in the Asia-Pacific region presents challenges and opportunities for U.S.-China relations. The United States must adapt to the changing dynamics and find ways to engage with China constructively. Collaboration and cooperation between the two countries are essential for maintaining stability and prosperity in the region.