Introduction:
Graham Allison’s new book, Destined for War, explores the concept of Thucydides’ Trap, where a rising power challenges a ruling power, often leading to conflict. Allison argues that the United States and China are currently in a similar situation, with China’s rise posing a significant challenge to American dominance.

Thucydides’ Trap:
Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian, observed that rising powers often clash with ruling powers, leading to war. Allison examines 16 cases of rising powers challenging ruling powers over the past 500 years, finding that 12 resulted in war.

China’s Rise and Implications:
Allison highlights China’s meteoric economic growth and its increasing military capabilities, which have significantly shifted the global balance of power. He emphasizes the need for the United States to recognize the magnitude of China’s rise and its potential impact on the international order.

Understanding the Challenge:
Allison stresses the importance of understanding the structural and substructural dynamics at play between a rising power and a ruling power. He argues that avoiding war requires acknowledging the challenges and risks posed by China’s rise, not for pessimism but to address the problem effectively.

Lee Kuan Yew’s Insights:
Allison shares an anecdote about his conversation with David Petraeus, former CIA director, where he introduced him to a memo containing Q&A with Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding father. Lee Kuan Yew’s perspective as a premier China watcher, living near China and having close ties with Chinese leaders, provided valuable insights into China’s strategic thinking and aspirations.

Conclusion:
Graham Allison’s Destined for War serves as a wake-up call, urging the United States to confront the reality of China’s rise and its implications for the international order. He emphasizes the need for clear-eyed understanding of the challenge, strategic thinking, and diplomatic efforts to avoid the Thucydides’ Trap and maintain peace.

Graham Allison’s Key Message:
Americans struggle to comprehend China’s rapid rise as the world’s dominant power due to preconceived notions and cultural differences.

Examples of China’s Remarkable Achievements:
The reconstruction of the Sanyan Bridge in Beijing, completed in just 43 hours compared to the Anderson Bridge at Harvard, which took years and is still incomplete. China’s dominance across various indicators, including automobile manufacturing, smartphone production, billionaires, supercomputers, and artificial intelligence.

China’s Economic Strength:
Measured by purchasing power parity, China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2014, according to the IMF and CIA.

Vaclav Havel’s Observation:
“Things have happened so fast, we haven’t yet had time to be astonished,” highlighting the rapid pace of China’s rise and the need for adjustment.

Anecdote from Michael M. Nacht:
A Berkeley professor’s self-centered behavior during a meeting with a donor, demonstrating the self-referential nature of academic institutions.

Conflict Prevention:
While conflict between the United States and China is not inevitable, it could arise unintentionally or through miscalculation.

Inadvertent Conflict and Historical Examples:
Graham Allison highlights the possibility of inadvertent conflict between the US and China, emphasizing that war between these powers is unthinkable and undesirable. He cites the example of World War I, triggered by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, leading to a chain of events that resulted in devastating consequences. Allison draws parallels between the current situation on the Korean Peninsula and the events leading up to World War I.

Kim Jong-un’s Missile Tests and Trump’s Response:
Kim Jong-un’s missile tests, escalating from short-range to intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching San Francisco, pose a significant threat. Donald Trump’s response to these tests includes ordering an attack on the launching pad or missile to prevent a nuclear attack on the US. Allison compares this situation to a slow-motion Cuban Missile Crisis, with two trains (the US and North Korea) on a collision course.

China’s Role and Trump’s Summit with Xi Jinping:
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a summit with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, expressed his ability to solve the North Korean crisis but warned that Trump wouldn’t like his solution. After the summit, Trump ordered a missile strike on Syria, sending a clear message to North Korea about his willingness to use military force.

Nuclear Deterrence:
The presence of robust nuclear arsenals can create a situation of mutual assured destruction (MAD), where an attack by one party would result in the destruction of both. This creates a stabilizing effect, deterring conflict and encouraging cautious behavior. Nuclear deterrence played a crucial role in maintaining stability during the Cold War and continues to be a factor in the U.S.-China relationship.

Economic Interdependence:
High levels of economic entanglement between the U.S. and China can also contribute to stability. Economic cooperation provides mutual benefits and creates incentives for both countries to avoid conflict that could disrupt these benefits.

Climate Change:
Climate change poses a common threat that requires cooperation between the U.S. and China. Neither country can solve the problem alone, making it a potential area for collaboration and shared responsibility.

U.S. Military Presence in the South China Sea:
The U.S. Navy’s presence in the South China Sea is seen by China as anomalous and provocative. China considers the South China Sea to be its territorial waters and views the U.S. presence as an infringement on its sovereignty. This issue is a potential source of conflict and highlights the competing interests between the two countries in the region.

Clarifying Vital Interests:
The U.S. should clearly define its vital interests in the Asia-Pacific region and prioritize these interests in its policies toward China. Distinguishing between vital and non-vital interests allows for flexibility and adaptability in responding to changing circumstances.

Understanding China’s Goals:
The U.S. needs to better understand China’s goals and aspirations, particularly its desire to become a great power. Recognizing and respecting China’s legitimate interests can help avoid unnecessary conflict and build a more stable relationship.

Historical Context:
China’s historical perspective shapes its current foreign policy. China sees itself as a great civilization that has been humiliated by Western powers in the past. This historical context influences China’s desire to regain its status as a leading global power.

Understanding China’s Perspective:
China has a deep-rooted vision to reclaim its dominant regional power status, shaped by its long history and recent experiences of Western imperialism. This Chinese vision is grounded in their culture and may be objectionable to others, but it’s not irrational.

US Behavior as a Precedent:
Graham Allison suggests that if China behaved like the US in its rise to power, the likelihood of conflict would be almost certain. Historical examples are provided, such as US actions in Colombia and Alaska, which demonstrate assertive and self-interested behavior.

Building Constructive Frameworks:
Finding areas of collaboration and joint initiatives can help create a framework to manage inevitable conflicts peacefully.

Economic Interdependence as a Potential Buffer:
The high level of economic entanglement between the US and China could potentially serve as a brake on conflict, unlike in previous historical scenarios.

Economic Interdependence Between Germany and Britain Prior to World War I:
Norman Angell, an author, argued in his bestselling book, The Grand Illusion, that war was obsolete due to the high level of economic entanglement between Germany and Britain.

Andrew Carnegie’s Belief in Perpetual Peace:
Andrew Carnegie, the richest man in the world in 1914, was convinced by Angell’s book that peace had become the natural condition. He sent out a New Year’s greeting in 1914 to world leaders, expressing his belief in perpetual peace. Carnegie’s optimism was based on the establishment of the Peace Palace in The Hague and the permanent court of arbitration.

Challenges to the Notion of Sufficient Interdependence Preventing War:
Michael M. Nacht acknowledges the thick degree of interdependence between countries but suggests that it may not be enough to prevent war. He highlights the role of specific countries and leaders, such as Putin and Russia, who may present unique challenges to peace.

Russia and China’s Dynamic Relationship:
Russia and China have a complex relationship, often portrayed as natural adversaries due to their shared border and Russia’s abundant resources and China’s need for space and resources. However, in the short term, particularly under Xi Jinping and Putin’s leadership, China and Russia have aligned as best buddies. Their common adversary, the U.S., and their shared interest in maintaining their autocratic regimes contribute to this alignment.

Putin’s Opportunistic Approach:
Putin’s actions in Ukraine, such as the ongoing conflict, serve as a distraction for the U.S., allowing China to garner U.S. attention. In the event of a U.S.-China conflict, Putin might capitalize on the situation, taking advantage of the U.S.’s divided focus.

Historical Analogy: Japan’s Rise and Pearl Harbor:
The rise of Japan in the 1930s, from an economically backward nation to a rising economic and nationalist power, draws parallels to the current situation with China. The U.S. imposed an oil embargo on Japan, leading to Pearl Harbor and war. This analogy highlights the potential dangers of a rising power’s aspirations and the consequences of economic coercion.

U.S.-Japan Relations in the 1930s:
Japan’s rapid growth and aggression in the 1930s led to tensions with the U.S. The U.S. maintained an open door policy in the region and became the guarantor of order. As Japan’s aggression increased, the U.S. imposed trade constraints and embargoes.

Japan’s Attack on Pearl Harbor:
Japan perceived the U.S. actions as an attempt to strangle its economy. Japan’s decision to attack Pearl Harbor was based on the belief that it could gain an initial advantage and potentially avoid a prolonged war.

Xi Jinping’s Awareness of the Thucydides Trap:
Graham Allison’s book on the Thucydides Trap has gained attention in China, including by President Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping’s chief economic assistant, Liu He, is a former student of Allison’s and shares an interest in history. Xi Jinping acknowledges the potential risks of the Thucydides Trap and believes that additional mistakes can be avoided.

Learning from History:
Allison emphasizes the importance of studying history to avoid repeating mistakes. He argues that business as usual will likely lead to similar historical outcomes. There is potential for China’s economic growth to face challenges, but the lessons of history can help navigate these obstacles.

Skepticism about China’s Continued Dominance:
Some experts believe that the rate of growth of China’s GDP will slow down in the long run. China has a large and growing debt, which could hinder its economic growth. The Silk Road maritime and land strategy may be more rhetoric than reality and may not lead to significant economic benefits.

Challenges to China’s Continued Growth:
China’s economy has grown at double-digit rates for almost three decades, which is unprecedented. However, it is unlikely that this growth can continue indefinitely. Larry Summers believes that China’s economy will slow down soon, while Graham Allison is more optimistic.

Lee Kuan Yew’s Perspective:
Lee Kuan Yew, the former Prime Minister of Singapore, believed that China could continue growing at three times the rate of the United States for the foreseeable future. He argued that China has a large population and could potentially become twice as productive as the United States.

China’s Advantages and Disadvantages:
China has a large population and a strong manufacturing base. However, it also faces significant challenges, including air pollution, corruption, and a rapidly aging population.

China’s Government’s Response to Challenges:
The Chinese government is aware of the challenges facing the economy. It is taking steps to address these challenges, such as investing in infrastructure and promoting innovation.

India’s Potential as a Rival to China:
India’s rapid growth rate and large population make it a potential rival to China. India has a substantial military and a population that could soon surpass China’s. If India can overcome its internal challenges and sustain its rapid growth, it could become a major power in Asia.

Comparison to the US-British Rivalry:
The emergence of China as a rival to the US is different from the US’s rise to power against Britain in the early 20th century. In the US-British rivalry, there were no other major powers in the Western Hemisphere. In the case of China, Japan is already a major power in Asia, and India has the potential to become one as well.

Lee Kuan Yew’s Pessimistic View of India:
Lee Kuan Yew, the former Prime Minister of Singapore, was pessimistic about India’s potential. He argued that India’s caste system, rigid bureaucracy, and lack of a common language would prevent it from becoming a unified and powerful nation. Lee Kuan Yew believed that India was not a “real country” but rather a collection of independent states held together only by the British railroad.

Self-Perception and Core Values:
America views itself as number one, while China sees itself as the center of the universe. America’s core value is freedom, whereas China’s is order.

Government and Foreign Policy:
America considers government a necessary evil, while China sees it as a necessary good. America has a democratic republic, while China has responsive authoritarianism. America views foreigners inclusively, while China views them exclusively. America’s time horizon is focused on the present, while China’s extends into eternity. America’s foreign policy is based on international order, while China’s emphasizes harmonious hierarchy.

Clash of Civilizations:
The clash of civilizations between the U.S. and China exacerbates the Thucydidean dynamic, leading to misunderstandings and potential conflict. America’s idea of order, based on equality and democratic governance, is seen as chaos by China. China’s concept of order emphasizes hierarchy, with the Middle Kingdom at the top. China’s leadership does not subscribe to democracy and views oligarchic elements in America negatively.

Impact of Donald Trump’s Presidency:
The book was completed before the 2016 election, and the author initially considered revising it due to Trump’s presidency. Ultimately, the author decided to leave the book unchanged but acknowledged in the preface that Trump’s presidency could potentially lead to a greater risk of conflict with China. Xi Jinping is also a strong leader who could challenge the U.S.

Similarities between Xi and Trump:
Both Xi and Trump are expressions of national insecurity and fear. China is seen as a threat and an obstacle to America’s greatness. Trump’s campaign focused on China as the main enemy or problem. Xi sees America as a force trying to keep China down.

Dangers of a Novice in Office:
Trump’s lack of experience in government and history of these issues makes the situation more dangerous. It is difficult for someone new to these problems to understand and handle them effectively. A novice in office creates an additional level of danger in these circumstances.