Thucydides’ Trap:
Thucydides, the father of history, wrote about the Peloponnesian War and its destructive impact on the leading city-states of classical Greece. He identified the “rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta” as the key factor that made the war inevitable.

Structural Dynamic:
Thucydides’ trap is the concept that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, a structural dynamic occurs that often leads to conflict. This storyline has repeated itself throughout history, with numerous examples of rising powers challenging ruling powers.

US-China Relationship:
The author, not a China expert but a national security expert, became interested in the US-China relationship and sought to understand the underlying dynamics. He looked beyond the day-to-day news and noise to identify a deeper structural dynamic shaping the relationship.

Historical Perspective:
The author examined the last 500 years of history to identify 16 cases of rising powers challenging ruling powers. In 12 of these cases, the result was war.

Thucydides’ Trap in US-China Relations:
The author argues that the US-China relationship fits the pattern of Thucydides’ trap, with China’s rise posing a challenge to the US’s ruling power. He sees this as a major structural dynamic shaping the relationship and influencing various aspects of US-China interactions.

History’s Pattern of War:
Graham Allison’s research highlights 16 historical instances where a rising power challenged a ruling power, resulting in war in 12 cases. This pattern suggests that business as usual could lead to history repeating itself, potentially resulting in a disastrous war between the US and China.

Avoiding the Inevitable:
While war is a possible outcome, Allison emphasizes that it is not inevitable. Miscalculations and mistakes are likely due to the competitive nature of rising powers, leading to tensions and misunderstandings.

US and China’s Responsibility:
Both the United States and China must take proactive measures to prevent war from becoming inevitable.

Thucydides’ Insight:
Thucydides’ analysis focuses on the dynamics between a rising power threatening to displace the ruling power. This pattern is not unique and can be observed in various contexts, including businesses, families, and historical events.

Changing Dynamics:
As a rising power gains strength and influence, it naturally seeks more say and sway in decision-making. This challenge to the established order can create tensions and conflicts, as the incumbent power may feel threatened and resist the change.

Perceived Stability and Resistance to Change:
When a rising power challenges the established order, the ruling power may perceive the situation as stable and resist change, leading to structural stress. The ruling power may view the rising power’s growth and strength as a threat to its position and stability.

Misperceptions and Distrust:
Misperceptions and exaggerated fears can arise between the two parties, leading to a distorted understanding of each other’s intentions. Benign actions may be misinterpreted as malicious, fostering distrust and suspicion.

Unintended Triggers and Escalation:
A third party’s actions, initially inconsequential, can trigger a reaction from one party that is misperceived by the other, leading to a chain of actions and reactions. This escalating dynamic can lead to a conflict that neither party intended or desired.

Regret and Unintended Consequences:
The conflict escalates to a war that both parties ultimately regret, realizing that it could have been avoided through better communication and understanding.

China’s Economic Power and Military Might:
China’s economic and military strength have shifted the balance of power, creating a new paradigm where economic power plays a significant role alongside military power.

Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew as a China Watcher:
Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founder, was a renowned strategist and China watcher due to Singapore’s proximity to China and his frequent consultations with Chinese leaders.

Economic Balance of Power Shift:
China’s growing economy and dominant trading position have shifted the economic balance of power, making it a crucial economic partner for many countries.

China’s Economic Influence and Coercion:
China’s economic dominance allows it to exert influence and coerce countries that don’t align with its interests, as seen in cases like the Philippines and Norway.

US-China Rivalry and Competition:
The US-China rivalry and competition have intensified, with China displacing the US in various domains, leading to tensions and challenges.

Four Mega Threats Beyond Oil:
Ellen Tauscher identifies four significant threats beyond oil that demand attention: nuclear Armageddon, nuclear anarchy, global terrorism, and climate change.

Shared Interests and Cooperation:
Despite the rivalry, the US and China share vital interests in confronting global threats, such as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and climate change, where cooperation is crucial.

Vital Interests:
Avoiding nuclear war is a vital interest for both the US and China, as it would result in mutual destruction. The economies of the US and China are deeply intertwined, and a war between the two countries would have devastating economic consequences for both. Climate change poses an existential threat to both countries, and addressing it requires cooperation.

Shared Common Interests:
The US and China share several common interests, including: Preventing nuclear war Avoiding economic disruption Addressing climate change

Dysfunctional Democracy and Autocracy:
Both the US and China face domestic challenges that threaten their ability to govern themselves effectively. The US has a dysfunctional democracy that has struggled to address major issues. China is attempting to rebuild an autocracy in an era of open economy and widespread access to information.

The Need for Strategy and Understanding:
The US needs to develop a clear strategy for dealing with China that takes into account both its vital interests and common interests. The US needs to develop a deeper understanding of China, its history, culture, and political system, to effectively engage with it.

The Significance of China’s Economic Growth:
In the span of a generation, China has transformed from a country of little international significance to a global rival or even superior in various arenas. China’s GDP, which was only 10% of the US GDP when Ronald Reagan became president, surpassed the US to become the largest economy in 2014, according to the IMF and CIA. By 2024, China’s economy is projected to be half again larger than the US, based on current trends.

Indicators of China’s Dominance:
China leads in numerous indicators across various sectors, including automobile manufacturing, smartphone production, robot manufacturing, fastest computers, artificial intelligence, and the number of billionaires. This rapid rise in economic power has been difficult for many to comprehend, leading to a failure of imagination and an inability to accept the reality of China’s dominance.

Challenges in Accepting China’s Supremacy:
The idea of another country surpassing the US in economic size and strength is difficult for many Americans to accept, as the US has long been accustomed to being number one. This mindset can lead to a failure to see and process the facts, even when presented with evidence of China’s economic growth. The media’s reporting of economic size often relies on market exchange rates rather than purchasing power parity (PPP), which results in an inaccurate portrayal of China’s economic dominance.

The Importance of Acknowledging Reality:
Despite the discomfort of accepting China’s economic supremacy, it is crucial to confront these facts and recognize the opportunities that come with this new reality. Failing to do so can lead to misunderstandings, strained relationships, and potential conflicts, especially in times of crisis or international challenges. Embracing the reality of China’s economic power can open up significant opportunities for collaboration and cooperation.

American and Chinese Interests in Nuclear Deterrence:
The nuclear dimension plays a critical role in the relationship between the United States and China, as both nations have a fundamental shared interest in avoiding nuclear conflict. A nuclear war would have devastating consequences, and both countries recognize the need to exercise caution and adjust their behavior to avoid such an outcome.

Risks and Calculations in Nuclear Deterrence:
Despite the shared interest in preventing nuclear war, both countries may still take calculated risks, assuming that the other side is also making similar calculations. The current situation on the Korean Peninsula is seen as a potential “Cuban missile crisis in slow motion,” where the risk of conflict is heightened.

Outsourcing North Korea Management to China:
President Trump has suggested that the Chinese can be persuaded to manage the North Korean situation on behalf of the United States. However, this approach is fraught with challenges, as China has its own interests and calculations and may not be willing or able to fulfill US expectations.

Recommendations for US-China Engagement:
The United States and China should engage in more intensive and direct discussions on the North Korean issue, aiming to find common ground and avoid misperceptions. It is crucial to manage expectations and recognize that China has its own interests and perspectives, which may differ from those of the United States. Both countries should work together to address the root causes of tensions on the Korean Peninsula and seek diplomatic solutions to prevent conflict.

Background:
North Korea has conducted nuclear weapons tests, built 25 nuclear weapons, and deployed short and medium-range missiles capable of delivering these warheads to South Korea and Japan. North Korea is preparing to test ICBMs that could potentially deliver nuclear warheads to San Francisco within the next few months.

Trump’s Reaction:
President Trump was initially dismissive of the North Korean threat, stating that it would not happen under his watch. However, he later became increasingly concerned and threatened to strike North Korea if necessary.

Potential Consequences of a US Strike on North Korea:
North Korea may retaliate against South Korea, potentially killing millions. The US and South Korea would likely respond by attacking North Korea’s remaining missiles and artillery, which could lead to a full-scale war. China may enter the conflict on North Korea’s side, as it has a mutual defense pact with North Korea and a history of supporting it.

China’s Military Vulnerabilities:
China’s military is inferior to the US military in terms of technology, training, and global reach. However, China has a significant advantage in the region due to its proximity to North Korea and its ability to operate from home.

Conclusion:
The situation in North Korea is akin to a Cuban missile crisis in slow motion, with the potential for a devastating conflict between the US, North Korea, and China.

The Changing Military Balance in China’s Favor:
The regional military balance has been shifting steadily in China’s favor, with China possessing a cost-effective missile that can attack US carriers. The Taiwan crisis demonstrated China’s resolve to prevent US interference in its regional interests.

The State of Diplomacy and Statecraft:
Diplomacy and statecraft play a crucial role in preventing war and resolving conflicts peacefully. The success of the Iran nuclear deal, achieved through diplomacy led by Secretary of State John Kerry, President Obama, and others, halted Iran’s nuclear advancement for at least a decade. The Cold War is considered a case of successful statecraft, where the US competed with the Soviet Union in every dimension except direct military conflict.

The Role of Diplomacy in Preventing War:
George Kennan’s insights on the Soviet Union and his communication with Secretary of State George Marshall and Senator Vandenberg were instrumental in shaping US foreign policy during the Cold War. The importance of diplomacy and statecraft in addressing global challenges and preventing war is emphasized.

The Neglect of the State Department:
The proposed budget cuts and lack of appointments in the State Department undermine its ability to conduct effective diplomacy. The absence of ambassadors in key countries, including Japan, France, the UK, and Russia, hampers diplomatic efforts and relationships with allies.

The Broken Confirmation Process:
The lengthy and complicated confirmation process for diplomatic appointments delays the filling of crucial positions in the State Department. The need for comprehensive reform of the confirmation process to expedite the appointment of qualified individuals is highlighted.

Russia-US Relations and China:
The perception in the US that Russia’s influence over China is significant is largely inaccurate.

Russia-China Relations:
Contrary to popular belief, Russia and China currently have a close relationship. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have a strong friendship. Both leaders prioritize their relationship and frequently meet to discuss mutual concerns, primarily the United States. Their authoritarian leadership styles contribute to their mutual understanding.

Paris Climate Accord:
The Paris Climate Accord is not a treaty and therefore did not require Senate confirmation. It is an agreement where countries agreed to certain caps and deliverables but was not enforceable. The criticism of the accord was that it was not legally binding.

The Paris Accord:
The Paris Accord brought all parties together to acknowledge the problem of greenhouse gas emissions and the need for action. It set a process in motion to start addressing the issue, with commitments and conversations to fulfill those commitments. A group of billionaires and governments agreed to invest $30 billion in developing new technologies to combat climate change.

US-China Relations:
The US and China have different conceptions of their roles in the world. China’s focus is on what is good for them, while the US often sees itself as a benevolent hegemon. China’s rise has lifted millions out of poverty and has benefited the US through trade and lower prices. The US should acknowledge China’s rise, recognize the positive aspects of it, and adapt and adjust its policies accordingly.

The US’s Role in the World:
The US has played a vital role in maintaining a peaceful world without great power wars for seven decades. However, the Thucydides dynamic with China and the US’s retreat from various fields are creating a more dangerous world. The US should gracefully acknowledge China’s rise, but it should not deny facts and should recognize the positive aspects of China’s growth.

US Priorities:
The US should identify what is vital for its interests and what is merely vivid but not essential. It should adapt and adjust its policies based on this distinction. For example, the US does not need to have a strong opinion about who owns each island in the South China Sea.

Common and Competing Interests Between China and the US:
Graham Allison discusses the competing interests between China and the US, particularly in the South China Sea and North Korea. Allison believes that it is possible for the two countries to adapt and adjust to these competing interests without causing significant conflict.

Law of Unintended Consequences:
Ellen Tauscher raises the concern that the actions of the US in Iraq and Libya may have unintentionally encouraged North Korea to pursue nuclear weapons. Allison agrees with Tauscher’s observation and highlights the “Edelman rule,” which suggests that countries without nuclear weapons may be more likely to be invaded by the US, while countries with nuclear weapons may be less likely to face invasion. Allison emphasizes that Kim Jong-un may have learned from the experiences of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi that possessing nuclear weapons can deter military intervention.

Justification for Nuclear Weapons:
Kim Jong-un and Iran believe that obtaining nuclear weapons would provide them with a sense of security, acting as an insurance policy against potential threats.

U.S. Perspective:
The United States prioritizes its own security and well-being over the desires or beliefs of other nations.

Preventing Negative Actions:
The U.S. must take actions to prevent other nations from engaging in activities that could harm American interests, including the development of nuclear weapons.

Potential Threat:
The possession of nuclear weapons by North Korea poses a significant threat to the United States, with the capability to launch attacks on major cities like San Francisco.