The Geopolitical Event of a Lifetime:
The rise of China is the defining geopolitical event of the last 25 years. China’s growing power and influence are reshaping the global order.

Geostrategic Challenge for the Future:
The impact of China’s rise on the US and the international order is the key geostrategic challenge for the coming decades. Maintaining peace and stability in a world with two major powers is a complex and challenging task.

Thucydides’ Trap:
Thucydides’ trap is a term coined by Graham Allison, referring to the tendency for conflict to arise when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. Out of 16 historical cases studied, 12 resulted in war, while only four avoided conflict.

Lessons from History:
Studying historical examples of rising and ruling powers can provide valuable lessons for managing the current US-China relationship. Identifying both successful and unsuccessful cases can help policymakers avoid repeating past mistakes.

Current Dynamics:
China’s growing power and assertiveness have led to tensions with the US, the current ruling power. Both countries have legitimate interests and concerns that need to be addressed.

The Role of Incumbents and Upstarts:
Incumbents tend to resist change and maintain the status quo, while upstarts seek to disrupt and reshape the existing order. The dynamic between incumbents and upstarts can be complex and fraught with potential conflict.

Managing the US-China Relationship:
Avoiding Thucydides’ trap requires careful diplomacy, strategic thinking, and a willingness to compromise. Both the US and China need to recognize and respect each other’s interests and concerns. The international community has a role to play in facilitating dialogue and cooperation between the two powers.

Thucydides Trap:
Thucydides Trap refers to a situation where a rising power challenges the dominance of an existing power, often leading to conflict. Graham Allison draws parallels to hierarchical dominant systems observed in the animal kingdom and even within families. Allison emphasizes the challenge of pronouncing the term “Thucydides Trap,” highlighting the difficulty in discussing the concept.

Fear, Honor, and Interest:
Allison cites another ancient wisdom that identifies fear, honor, and interest as the root causes of nations choosing to engage in hostilities. This idea is attributed to Thucydides’ Peloponnesian War, exploring why nations go to war.

Thucydides Trap and World Leaders:
Xi Jinping, the president of China, shows interest in the concept of Thucydides Trap, arguing that it’s not necessary to succumb to it. President Obama and President Trump’s National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster, and Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, are familiar with the idea.

Thucydides Trap Definition:
Thucydides Trap describes a scenario where a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, potentially leading to negative consequences. However, Allison emphasizes that this outcome is not inevitable, leaving room for positive outcomes.

China’s Rapid Economic Development:
China’s economy has experienced remarkable growth since 1990. By 2014, it became the largest economy globally based on purchasing power parity. China’s economy is expected to be half again larger than the US by 2024.

Harvard Students’ Perception of China’s Rise:
Students generally guess that China will become number one in various domains in 2040-2050. However, most indicators suggest that China has already achieved these milestones.

China’s Impact on Various Domains:
China has already become the leading automaker, trading nation, and has the largest middle class and number of billionaires. It possesses the fastest supercomputer, is at the forefront of AI, and is the primary engine of economic growth.

Vaclav Havel’s Perspective on China’s Rise:
Havel remarked that things have occurred so rapidly that people have not had time to be astonished by China’s progress.

China’s Creative and Hungry Workforce:
China’s workforce is highly creative and driven. They are eager to succeed and are making significant advancements in various fields.

The Geostrategic Challenge:
The rise of China poses a significant geostrategic challenge for the US and the international order.

The Seesaw Analogy:
Allison uses a seesaw analogy to illustrate the shifting balance of power between the US and China. In 2004, China was about 20% the size of the US, but by 2014, it was equal to the US, and by 2024, it is projected to be substantially larger.

The Pivot to Asia:
The Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” policy aimed to shift the focus of US foreign policy from the Middle East to Asia. Allison argues that this policy failed to address the tectonic shift in economic power from the US to China.

China’s Resentment of the US-led International Order:
China feels that it was not consulted in the creation of the US-led international order and that it has a right to a say in how the world is governed.

The Risk of War Between the US and China:
Allison believes that the rise of China poses a serious risk of war between the US and China. He identifies North Korea as the most dangerous potential flashpoint, as North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that could reach the US.

Xi Jinping’s Meeting with President Trump:
At a meeting with President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Xi Jinping was told that North Korea is a threat that the US will not tolerate and that China must solve the problem.

Overview:
Graham Allison discusses the concept of “Thucydides’ Trap,” which refers to the potential for conflict when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. He uses the example of North Korea’s nuclear program and the US-China relationship to illustrate the risks of this dynamic.

North Korea’s Nuclear Program:
North Korea is developing an ICBM capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to targets in the US and its allies. This poses a significant threat to regional stability and has led to tensions between North Korea and the US. President Trump has taken a tough stance against North Korea, threatening military action if necessary.

US-China Relations:
China is a rising power that seeks to expand its influence in Asia. The US is the current ruling power in the region and views China’s rise as a challenge to its dominance. The two countries have competing interests in the region, which could lead to conflict.

Thucydides’ Trap:
Thucydides’ Trap refers to the historical tendency for conflict to occur when a rising power challenges the status quo of a ruling power. This dynamic can create a sense of insecurity and mistrust between the two parties. External events or actions by third parties can trigger a chain of events that lead to war.

Avoidable Wars:
The US and China should take steps to avoid a preventable war. This includes building trust, communicating openly, and finding ways to accommodate each other’s interests. The international community should also play a role in promoting dialogue and cooperation between the two countries.

Thucydides’ Trap and the Potential for US-China Conflict:
The potential for war between the US and China is not inevitable but could occur due to mistakes and avoidable misunderstandings.

The Importance of Imagination and Beyond Business as Usual:
The book aims to stimulate debate on imaginative approaches to avoid war and move beyond routine strategies.

The First Korean War and the Absence of Thucydides’ Trap:
The first Korean War was not caused by Thucydides’ Trap but territorial issues.

The Impact of Thucydides’ Dynamic in a Hypothetical Second Korean War:
In the absence of Thucydides’ dynamic, the US and China could resolve the North Korean problem more easily.

The Role of an Adult Supervisor and External Events:
An external mediator could facilitate a solution to the North Korean problem, but Thucydides’ dynamic exaggerates the impact of external events.

The Complexity of Actors and Power Centers:
The US and China are not monolithic actors; they have multiple power centers and political divisions.

The Significance of Internal Politics and Powers:
Internal politics and powers within nations play a crucial role in determining the outcome of conflicts.

Deconstructing US and Chinese Actors:
Graham Allison emphasizes the importance of disaggregating actors into individual human beings to understand their actions accurately. In the US, the president holds the most significant role, and the experience and understanding of the president can drastically impact decision-making. President John F. Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis serves as an example of how a novice president’s actions could have led to nuclear war. In contrast, President Trump’s inexperience in government raises concerns about his decision-making capabilities. Key players around Trump, such as H.R. McMaster, Jim Mattis, and Rex Tillerson, bring significant expertise and experience to the decision-making process. The US military possesses exceptional capabilities but often approaches problems with a “hammer” mindset, seeking targets to strike.

Xi Jinping’s Dominance in China:
Xi Jinping holds supreme power in China’s authoritarian system, aiming to secure a second five-year term as president. He seeks to establish a standing committee of seven people as the collective leadership but without a clear successor, giving him a long runway of power. No one in China considers war with the US to be a good idea, and Xi Jinping is focused on domestic issues and securing his power.

Mutual Assured Destruction and the Risk of Nuclear War:
The concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) played a crucial role during the Cold War in deterring nuclear war. Both the US and the Soviet Union recognized that a nuclear exchange would lead to the end of the world as they knew it. In the current US-China conflict, MAD still serves as a deterrent, preventing a direct nuclear war between the two superpowers. However, the rise of North Korea as a nuclear power introduces a wild card that could potentially escalate tensions and increase the risk of nuclear conflict.

Scenarios for War and the Role of Cyber and Ground Forces:
While a full-scale nuclear war is unlikely, the possibility of other types of conflicts between the US and China remains. Cyber warfare and military arms races are potential scenarios that could escalate into armed conflict. China’s asymmetric warfare strategies, such as developing low-cost missiles to counter expensive US military assets, pose a challenge to US dominance.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD):
MAD is a situation in which two countries have nuclear arsenals so large that even after one country attacks and tries to disarm the other, the attacked country can still retaliate and destroy the attacker. This creates a fundamental fact of life for the two countries, leading to caution and even willingness to compromise. In the case of the US and the Soviet Union, MAD played a significant role in maintaining peace during the Cold War.

Thucydides Trap:
The Thucydides Trap is a theory that when a rising power (China) challenges an established power (the US), it often leads to conflict. The theory is based on the writings of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who observed that the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens was caused by the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta. Allison believes that the US-China relationship is similar to the Sparta-Athens relationship and that the Thucydides Trap could lead to conflict between the two countries.

Risks and Incentives in MAD:
Under conditions of MAD, countries may take risks that do not have a certainty attached to them, especially if the other party is prepared to yield. This can be seen as a “chicken game,” where each country has an incentive to swerve to avoid a collision, but if both countries believe the other will swerve, it can lead to a collision that kills both.

China’s Role in the Global Order:
China is not interested in replacing the US as the global leader and has been puzzled by the extent to which it has been pushed forth to be the global leader by the American exit. China is the most protectionist and mercantilist economy in the world and does 70% of its energy from coal, making it the number one greenhouse gas emitter. In Asia, China may aspire to play a more significant role, but it is unlikely to seek global leadership in the same way the US has.

Lee Kuan Yew’s Views on China’s Leadership:
Lee Kuan Yew believed that China’s leaders, including Xi Jinping, were serious about displacing the United States as the predominant power in Asia. Lee argued that it was natural for China to aspire to be predominant in Asia, given its historical dominance in the region.

China’s Narrative and Historical Perspective:
China’s leaders saw the country’s rise as a return to its rightful place as the dominant power in Asia. They viewed the past 200 years of Western imperialism as an anomaly and sought to restore China’s preeminence.

China’s Claims in the South China Sea:
China asserted its territorial claims in the South China Sea and challenged the United States’ role as the arbiter of events in the region. Chinese officials argued that the South China Sea was rightfully theirs and that the United States had no authority to dictate who could build or own islands in the area.

Comparison to the United States:
Graham Allison presented a hypothetical scenario in which China’s Xi Jinping was similar to Teddy Roosevelt, who was confident in America’s dominance during the early 20th century. This comparison highlighted the parallels between China’s emerging power and America’s past rise to global prominence.

Cuba and the Spanish:
The idea of Spanish occupation in Cuba was viewed as an abomination by the US. The US declared war on Spain following a mysterious explosion in Havana harbor, leading to a swift victory and the liberation of Cuba, acquisition of Puerto Rico, and Guam as spoils of war.

Trump’s Presidency:
The current political landscape in the US is characterized by Trump’s leadership, which differs significantly from the traditional norms and policies.

Trump’s Approach to China:
Trump’s unique approach to diplomacy was demonstrated during the Mar-a-Lago summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump’s granddaughter, Arabella, sang Jasmine, a famous Chinese song, in Mandarin, which surprised and impressed Xi Jinping and his wife. This creative and unconventional gesture created a positive atmosphere and showed respect for Chinese culture.

Trump’s Potential for Creative Solutions:
Trump’s unorthodox approach to diplomacy could potentially lead to unexpected breakthroughs in resolving international issues such as the North Korean problem. His ability to think outside the traditional diplomatic framework could potentially lead to innovative and effective solutions.