Graham Allison (Harvard University) (Feb 2020)

Graham Allison (Harvard University Professor) – Thucydides Trap | Munich Security Conference (Feb 2020)

Chapters

00:00:13 Thucydides Trap: America and China's Dangerous Rivalry

Introduction:
Graham Allison, a prominent scholar and expert on international relations, discusses his book “Destined for War,” which analyzes the concept of the Thucydides Trap in the context of the US-China relationship. Allison explains his motivation for writing the book, emphasizing his realization of China’s growing significance and the need to understand the dynamics of its relationship with the United States.

Thucydides Trap:
The Thucydides Trap is a concept derived from the writings of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who observed that when a rising power challenges an established power, it often leads to conflict. Allison argues that the Thucydides Trap is a serious concern in the context of the US-China relationship, given China’s rapid economic and military rise and its potential to challenge US dominance.

Significance of the Book:
“Destined for War” has gained widespread recognition and become a bestseller, particularly in China, where President Xi Jinping himself introduced the term “Thucydides Trap.” Allison’s book has garnered praise for its insightful analysis and its exploration of various scenarios and possibilities in the US-China relationship.

Allison’s Background and Expertise:
Allison’s extensive background in international relations, including his tenure as dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School and director of the Belfer Center, lends credibility to his analysis. He has held significant positions in government, including serving as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans during the Reagan and Clinton administrations. Allison’s contributions to the field of international relations are notable, with works like “The Essence of Decision” and “Nuclear Terrorism” gaining recognition.

Discussion with David Petraeus:
The conversation between Allison and David Petraeus delves into the factors that prompted Allison to write “Destined for War” and the key ideas he aims to convey through the concept of the Thucydides Trap. Allison acknowledges that his initial focus was on the Soviet Union and nuclear weapons, but he eventually recognized the importance of understanding China’s role in international politics. The influence of mentors like Henry Kissinger and Lee Kuan Yew, who encouraged him to pay attention to China, played a significant role in his decision to explore this topic.

Ancient Greek History and the Thucydides Trap:
Allison’s studies of ancient Greek history, particularly Thucydides’ “History of the Peloponnesian War,” provided insights into the dynamics of rising and established powers. The Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens served as a historical example of the Thucydides Trap, demonstrating the potential for conflict when a rising power challenges an established one.

Conclusion:
Graham Allison’s “Destined for War” offers a comprehensive analysis of the Thucydides Trap in the context of the US-China relationship. The book’s exploration of various scenarios and possibilities, coupled with Allison’s extensive expertise in international relations, has garnered widespread attention and recognition. The discussion with David Petraeus highlights the factors that motivated Allison to write the book and the key ideas he seeks to convey through the concept of the Thucydides Trap.

00:05:12 Causes and Consequences of Thucydides' Trap

00:11:14 Nuclear War with China: Unthinkable Yet Possible

00:15:03 Historical Precedents for US-China Competition

00:22:24 Escaping Thucydides' Trap: Lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis

Abstract

The Thucydides Trap: Understanding the Dynamics of Power Shifts in the US-China Relationship

Abstract

In a world where the balance of power is constantly shifting, the concept of the Thucydides Trap provides a framework for comprehending the dynamics between rising and ruling powers. Graham Allison’s analysis, inspired by historical conflicts, delves into the complexities of the contemporary US-China relationship. This article explores Allison’s insights, shedding light on the challenges and opportunities that shape this evolving geopolitical landscape.

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The Genesis of Thucydides Trap: A Scholar’s Quest

Graham Allison’s exploration of international politics, particularly the US-China dynamic, mirrors the world’s growing recognition of China’s global influence. His concept of the Thucydides Trap, influenced by the ancient historian’s observations, frames the potential clash between a rising China and the established United States. This theoretical construct has sparked discussions and debates, highlighting the nuances and implications of this power shift.

Exploring the Trap: A Detailed Analysis

Allison’s extensive background in international relations, including his leadership roles at Harvard’s Kennedy School and the Belfer Center, lends credibility to his analysis. His government experience, including serving as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans, further underscores his expertise. Allison’s contributions to the field are notable, with works like “The Essence of Decision” and “Nuclear Terrorism” gaining widespread recognition.

At the core of the Thucydides Trap lies the structural tension that arises when an ascending power challenges the status quo. Allison’s in-depth analysis in “Destined for War” illuminates historical instances, drawing parallels with the current US-China scenario. He emphasizes the need for conscious efforts, through dialogue and cooperation, to avoid the historical pattern of conflict, underscoring that conflict is not an inevitable outcome.

Thucydides’ Trap: Insights from Historical Examples of Rising and Ruling Powers

Thucydides proposed that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, conflict is likely. Of 16 historical cases, 12 resulted in war, indicating a high potential for conflict. The structural dynamics of this relationship create a pattern of alarm and extreme danger.

Factors Contributing to War: Misperception and misunderstanding between the rising and ruling powers can lead to vulnerability. Events or incidents that would otherwise be manageable can trigger a vicious cycle of reactions, potentially leading to war. World War I exemplifies how a seemingly minor event (the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand) can escalate into a devastating conflict.

Relevance to the US-China Relationship: The US-China relationship is often seen as a modern illustration of Thucydides’ Trap. Despite the desire for peace on both sides, the potential for conflict remains due to the structural dynamics of the relationship. The risk of war is heightened by the possibility of misperceptions and misunderstandings between the two powers.

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Historical Precedents and Contemporary Relevance

Allison’s examination of 16 historical cases, where a rising power confronted an established one, reveals a pattern where most led to conflict. This insight is particularly pertinent to understanding the dynamics at play in the US-China relationship. The structural tensions, fueled by misperceptions and vulnerabilities to unexpected events, create a precarious situation where even minor incidents could escalate into significant confrontations.

World War I: A Lesson in Escalation

The outbreak of World War I serves as a stark reminder of how minor events, like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, can trigger a cascade of reactions leading to large-scale conflict. This historical episode exemplifies the dangers inherent in the Thucydides Trap, highlighting the necessity for vigilant management of international relations to prevent similar escalations in the contemporary context.

Nuclear Stakes and the Taiwan Question

In the nuclear age, the stakes of a potential US-China conflict are exponentially higher. Allison’s emphasis on the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war and the complex issue of Taiwan’s status add layers of gravity to the discourse. His experience in the Reagan Pentagon brings a sobering perspective to the insanity of nuclear warfare, further accentuating the generational gap in war experience among current military personnel.

Consequences of Nuclear War, Impacts of War on Populations, and Avoiding Conflict Triggers: Nuclear war between the US and China could result in no human survivors. Many current military personnel lack experience with large-scale wars that have resulted in significant American casualties. If Taiwan were to make a strong push for independence, China would likely react aggressively to prevent it. The US would face a difficult decision on whether to intervene and support Taiwan. Unintended events, like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, can trigger a chain of reactions leading to war. It is crucial to study and discuss potential triggers to avoid crises and manage them effectively. Communication between the US and China is essential to prevent crises and establish circuit breakers in case of escalating tensions.

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Managing Unintended Crises

Allison’s insights extend to the importance of averting and managing crises effectively. His emphasis on establishing “circuit breakers” for de-escalation in the US-China relationship is a critical point, suggesting that foresight and strategic dialogue are key to preventing inadvertent escalations.

Learning from Past Cases

The dialogue between Speaker 00 and Allison brings historical cases to the forefront, highlighting the significance of learning from the past. The example of Spain and Portugal’s rivalry and the Cold War experience offer valuable lessons in managing great power relations, underscoring the need for caution and strategic thinking in the US-China context.

Kennedy’s Legacy: A Guide for Modern Times

President Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis and his subsequent transformation provide a template for contemporary leaders. His shift towards a policy of coexistence and constraint, manifested in his American University speech, serves as a guiding principle for managing the US-China relationship. This approach, recognizing that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, is crucial for establishing a framework for peaceful competition and conflict avoidance.

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Conclusion

The Thucydides Trap, as conceptualized by Graham Allison, offers a profound lens through which we can view the intricacies of the US-China relationship. It calls for a nuanced understanding of historical patterns, the recognition of the catastrophic implications of conflict in the nuclear age, and the adoption of strategic measures to prevent escalation. In echoing the lessons from history and Kennedy’s transformative approach, this framework not only highlights the risks inherent in power shifts but also illuminates the path towards a more stable and cooperative international order.

Supplemental Insights:

– Similarities Between Historical Rivalries and Current US-China Relations: Thucydides’s analysis of historical rivalries provides valuable insights into the potential for conflict between rising and established powers.

– Historical Cases and Their Relevance: While the historical cases studied by Thucydides occurred before the nuclear age, they still provide valuable lessons for understanding the dynamics of rising power challenges.

– Four Cases of Non-War Outcomes: Out of 16 historical cases of rising power challenges, only four did not result in war.

– The Case of Spain and Portugal: In the 16th century, Pope Alexander VI mediated between Spain and Portugal, dividing the world into their respective spheres of influence, thus avoiding conflict.

– The Cold War as a Framework: The US and the Soviet Union managed to avoid war during the Cold War through a combination of internal contradictions within the Soviet system, US resistance, and efforts to undermine the regime.

– China’s Rise and the US Perspective: Some Chinese believe that the US should follow the example of Britain in the 20th century and recede from the Western Hemisphere and Asia.

– China’s Growing Power and US Concerns: China’s military buildup and economic growth have encroached on US positions and prerogatives, leading to tensions between the two countries.

– Thucydides’s Perspective: Thucydides would likely see the current US-China relationship as a potential for a grand collision.

– The Nuclear Age: The presence of nuclear weapons in the modern context makes the situation even more dangerous and complicates the potential for war.

– John F. Kennedy’s Reflection on the Cuban Missile Crisis: Kennedy recognized the grave danger of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis and was willing to take risks to prevent a catastrophe.

– Kennedy’s Call for Adaptation in Cold War Strategy: Kennedy proposed adjusting the Cold War strategy to avoid repeating crises like the Cuban Missile Crisis. He aimed to create a “world safe for diversity,” allowing the coexistence of opposing ideologies without direct confrontation.

– Arms Control Agreements and Constraints: Kennedy’s insights led to arms control agreements, constraints, and crisis management arrangements. Reagan’s famous quote, “A nuclear war cannot be won and must therefore never be fought,” encapsulated this approach. These constraints provided a framework for managing the US-Soviet rivalry.

– Implications for the China-US Relationship: The lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis and Kennedy’s strategic adjustments offer insights for navigating the current China-US relationship. Establishing constraints and crisis management mechanisms can help mitigate the risks of conflict escalation. Recognizing the potential consequences of a confrontation and seeking common ground can contribute to a more stable and peaceful relationship.

Notes by: crash_function

Graham Allison (Harvard University Professor) – Thucydides Trap | Munich Security Conference (Feb 2020)

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