Speaker Introduction:
Klaus Lahrs, Richard M. Kressner Distinguished Professor of History and International Affairs at UNC, introduces the esteemed scholar and speaker, Professor Graeme Addison of Harvard University.

Background:
US-China relations are a topic of great importance, with China’s rise as a new world power having the potential to reshape global dynamics. China’s increasing economic strength and geopolitical influence have created tensions with the United States, leading to concerns about the possibility of military conflict.

Graeme Allison’s Expertise:
Professor Graeme Allison is a leading expert on US national security issues and geostrategic thinking. He has held prominent positions in government and academia, including Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans under President Clinton.

Graeme Allison’s Notable Works:
Allison’s first book, “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis,” is a renowned work that has sold over 450,000 copies. His latest book, “Li Kuan Yew: The Grandmaster’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World,” has also been a bestseller. Allison has authored several other books and publications that have significantly contributed to the field of international affairs.

Allison’s Contributions to Foreign Policy:
Allison’s book “Remaking Foreign Policy: The Organizational Connection” established bureaucratic analysis of decision making as a subfield in international affairs. This work is said to have influenced the foreign policy of the Carter administration.

Honors and Awards:
Allison has received numerous awards and honors for his scholarly work, including the Department of Defense’s highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, twice. He has also served as a member of the Defense Policy Board for six Secretaries of Defense.

Academic Background and Affiliations:
Allison holds degrees from Harvard University and Oxford University. He has served as a professor at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and has held fellowships and consultancies at various prestigious institutions.

Thucydides’ Trap:
Thucydides, a general during the Peloponnesian War, proposed the concept of Thucydides’ trap, stating that the rise of one power and the fear it instills in another often leads to war.

Thucydides’ Trap Concept:
Thucydides’ trap is a metaphor that describes the dynamic between a rising power and an established power, where the rising power’s growth causes fear and insecurity in the established power, potentially leading to conflict.

Poster Child of Thucydides’ Phenomenon:
The rise of Germany in the early 20th century and the fear it instilled in Britain is an example of the Thucydides phenomenon. This case highlights the importance of studying history, particularly the events leading to World War I, to understand the dynamics of rising and ruling powers.

Historical Cases of Rising and Ruling Powers:
A study involving 16 cases over the past 500 years revealed that in 12 out of 16 cases, the rising power challenged the ruling power, resulting in war in 11 of those cases. This historical data suggests a high likelihood of conflict when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.

Factors for Pessimism and Optimism:
To assess the prospects of the US and China escaping Thucydides’ trap, it is crucial to consider both reasons for pessimism and optimism. Factors that contribute to pessimism include historical precedents, the growing military and economic rivalry between the US and China, and the Thucydides trap itself. On the other hand, factors that could lead to optimism include the interconnectedness of the US and Chinese economies, diplomatic efforts, and lessons learned from past conflicts.

Thucydides’ Trap and the US-China Relationship:
The question of whether the US and China can escape Thucydides’ trap remains unanswered. The historical evidence suggests a high probability of conflict, but there are also reasons to be optimistic. The outcome will depend on a combination of factors, including the actions of both countries, the global context, and historical lessons learned.

Introduction:
The Spartans were a society focused on discipline and war, accustomed to successful conquests and a sense of unmatched power.

Persian Invasion:
The Persians threatened to dominate Greece, prompting Athens to develop a navy that, together with Sparta’s army, defeated the Persians.

Post-Victory Tension:
Sparta urged Athens to maintain the status quo, including avoiding fortifications, but Athens continued to strengthen its navy and build alliances.

Athenian Flourishing:
Athens experienced a surge of creativity after defeating the Persians, leading to advancements in history, drama, philosophy, architecture, and democracy.

Spartan Fear and Alliances:
Fearful of Athens’ growing power, Sparta tightened alliances with other city-states, leading to increased entanglement with Corinth.

Peloponnesian War:
Conflicts between allies of Athens and Sparta escalated into the Peloponnesian War, ultimately resulting in losses for both sides and the resurgence of Persian influence.

Thucydides’ Insights:
Thucydides identified the rise of Athens and Sparta’s fear as the core reason for the war, emphasizing that structural stress accompanies the rise of a power that threatens an established one.

Background:
Graham Allison presents a compelling analysis of the dynamic between rising and ruling powers, emphasizing the potential for conflict and the need for careful management of this relationship.

Point 1: The Predictable Pattern of Displacement:
Allison observes a consistent pattern where rising powers eventually challenge the dominance of ruling powers, seeking to displace them from their position of authority.

Point 2: Resentment and Fear:
As a rising power grows stronger, it begins to assert its interests more forcefully, leading to resentment and fear among the ruling power. The ruling power perceives the rising power as a threat to the status quo, which has been beneficial to both parties.

Point 3: World War I as a Case Study:
Allison cites World War I as a prominent example of this dynamic, where Germany’s rise as a military and economic power challenged Britain’s dominance in Europe. He recommends Clark’s book “The Sleepwalkers” and Barbara Tuchman’s “The Guns of August” for further reading on this historical event.

Conclusion:
Allison’s analysis highlights the critical need for understanding the complex interplay between rising and ruling powers, as it has significant implications for international relations and the potential for conflict.

Germany’s Industrial Revolution and Unification:
Germany’s Industrial Revolution led to rapid economic growth, surpassing Britain’s GDP in a single generation. Prussia, under Bismarck’s leadership, unified Germany in 1870, transforming it into a powerful industrial nation.

Germany’s Naval Ambitions:
Germany began building a navy, aiming to rival or surpass the British Navy’s strength. Admiral Perkins’ ambition to match the British Navy caused concern and tension among British officials.

British Reaction to Germany’s Rise:
Britain saw Germany’s economic and naval expansion as a threat to its dominance and control of the seas. The idea of a German navy rivaling Britain’s challenged the British Empire’s long-standing role as the guarantor of maritime security.

Family Ties and Diplomatic Interactions:
Various European leaders were related through family ties, leading to complex diplomatic interactions. Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany and the new British king attended a funeral together in 1907, highlighting the interconnectedness of European royalty.

A Series of Unfortunate Events:
A set of fascinating correspondences between the Tsar and the British King warned against letting tensions escalate. Germany tightened its relationship with Austria-Hungary, while Britain formed ententes with France and Russia. Serbian nationalist aspirations clashed with Austro-Hungarian control, leading to tensions.

The Assassination that Ignited the Powder Keg:
A terrorist from the Black Haguen assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. Austria demanded action against Serbia, seeking to crush its aspirations. Russia supported Serbia, fearing for its own interests in the region.

A Self-Defeating War:
The assassination set off a chain of events, leading to the outbreak of World War I in August 1914. By the end of the war, all the major powers involved had suffered significant losses and defeats. The war highlighted the self-defeating nature of conflict and the devastating consequences of escalation.

Rising Powers and the Fear They Inspire:
The rise of Germany and the United States as rising powers caused fear and consternation in Britain, the ruling power. Teddy Roosevelt, personifying American ambition, sought to assert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Roosevelt challenged Spain and Britain in the Spanish-American War and the Venezuela territorial dispute, asserting American power.

Seeking a Canal in Colombia:
Roosevelt pursued the construction of a canal in Colombia, but faced resistance from the Colombian government.

Historical Examples of US Coercion and Accommodation:
US sponsorship of a coup in Panama to gain control of the Panama Canal. US acquisition of Alaska from Canada through coercion, leading to a tense relationship with Britain. Britain’s strategic choice to accommodate US interests, leading to an alliance in World War I.

Soviet Challenge to the US:
Early Soviet economic growth and military buildup created a perceived threat to the US. Kennedy’s election was influenced by concerns over the “missile gap” and Soviet technological advancements. Cold War emerged as a competition between the two superpowers using means short of direct military conflict.

Constraints in Cold War Competition:
Cuban Missile Crisis brought the competition to a dangerous point. Competition expanded to various covert activities, including assassinations and covert military actions.

Constraints on US-Soviet Competition:
The US and the Soviet Union refrained from direct military confrontations despite proxy wars and uprisings in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Georgia. This constraint was driven by the understanding that direct conflict between the two superpowers could lead to devastating consequences.

Avoiding War between the US and China:
There are numerous scenarios in which the US and China could engage in a devastating war. However, it is also possible for the two nations to maintain a competitive relationship without resorting to war.

Paths to Peaceful Coexistence:
The US and China can constrain their interests in certain areas and accommodate each other’s concerns. They can identify areas of cooperation and work together to achieve common goals.

Openness to Questions and Further Discussion:
The speaker is open to questions and discussions related to the topic of US-China competition and the possibility of avoiding war. The speaker is still working on developing a more comprehensive understanding of these issues and welcomes input from others.

Thucydides’ Trap and Historical Evidence:
Graham Allison, a political scientist, presented his views on the potential for military conflict between the United States and China, inspired by Thucydides’ historical work. Allison highlighted that in 12 out of 16 historical cases, when a rising power challenges an established power, it often leads to war. He drew parallels between the current US-China dynamic and past examples, suggesting that the US’s dominance and China’s growing strength could lead to conflict.

US-China Relations and the South China Sea:
Allison noted that China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea is seen as a test case for the US’s willingness to contain China’s influence. He emphasized that the Chinese view the South China Sea as their territory and expect the US to withdraw its naval presence. Allison pointed out that China’s military ambitions and the desire to expand its navy contribute to the tensions in the region.

China’s Rise and the Global Financial System:
Allison discussed the establishment of the Asian Development Bank by China, seen as a challenge to US-dominated global financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF. He suggested that China’s economic strength and growing reserves have led to its desire for a more prominent role in these institutions. Allison emphasized that the shift away from US dominance in global financial institutions could be a significant turning point in history.

Optimism vs. Pessimism:
Allison expressed optimism about the possibility of avoiding conflict between the US and China, citing lessons learned from past successes and failures. He highlighted the lack of adjacent borders and vital interest conflicts between the two countries as factors that could help prevent military confrontation. However, Allison also acknowledged the potential for pessimism, given the historical patterns and China’s growing assertiveness.

Overall Assessment:
Allison’s presentation focused on the potential for conflict between the US and China, drawing insights from Thucydides’ historical analysis. He emphasized the importance of accommodating China’s rise while also maintaining a balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. Allison encouraged learning from past experiences and urged both countries to find ways to avoid conflict and maintain peaceful relations.

The Rise of China:
China’s GDP has grown significantly relative to the U.S., making it the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity.

Thucydides’ Trap:
According to Thucydides’ theory, when a rising power challenges an established power, conflict is likely.

China’s Demand for Proportionate Influence:
China expects its influence to increase in proportion to its growing power.

Implications for the U.S.-China Relationship:
The U.S. and China will likely compete for influence and power on the global stage.

Accommodation and Resistance:
The U.S. needs to identify its vital interests and decide when to accommodate China and when to resist its influence.

Countering China’s Naval Power:
The U.S. should maintain its naval power in the Pacific to counter China’s efforts to neutralize it.

The U.S. and China: A Long-Term Perspective:
The U.S. has a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region and is committed to maintaining its military capabilities to maintain an edge over China. Building a navy and military capabilities takes time, providing a window for potential accommodation between the two countries. China’s rapid economic growth, if sustained, will lead to a significant increase in its economic power relative to the U.S.

Domestic Challenges:
The U.S. needs to focus on improving its domestic situation and addressing internal challenges. The U.S. has stumbled along at a 2% growth rate in the 21st century, while China has sustained double-digit growth for decades.

Communication and International Forums:
Instantaneous communication and the existence of international forums like the UN provide opportunities for dialogue and conflict resolution. These tools can help prevent misunderstandings and facilitate diplomatic solutions.

World War I Example:
In World War I, parties could convene meetings and had some forums for discussion. However, communication gaps and delays contributed to the escalation of the conflict.

The Cuban Missile Crisis:
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, communication between the U.S. and the Soviet Union was slow and inefficient. The invention of the hotline after the crisis improved communication and reduced the risk of misunderstandings.

Russia Not Mentioned:
The discussion did not address the issues of Russia, a major player in international relations.

Relationship between China and Russia:
China and Russia have a complicated relationship marked by territorial disputes and a history of unequal treaties from the 19th century. Despite these issues, China and Russia have strong economic ties and share common concerns about American democratization and freedom.

Xi Jinping and Putin:
Xi Jinping and Putin have a close relationship, with Xi’s first trip as president being to Russia. Both leaders feel threatened by American democratization and see the US as trying to undermine their regimes.

Territorial Disputes:
China has not given up its territorial aspirations in Russia, and some Chinese strategists believe that China may eventually attempt to recover these territories. The demographic decline in Russia, with most of the population concentrated west of the Urals, raises concerns that China could potentially expand its territory into Siberia.

China’s Territorial Claims:
China maintains that it has no territorial ambitions and has never been territorially expansive. However, China’s historical claims to territory, such as the “S-shaped” backbone of Vietnam, illustrate a different narrative.

Challenge to the Bipolar Mode of Thought:
The bipolar mode of thought, influenced by the Cold War and Thucydides, is challenged by the complex multipolar relationships in the world today. China’s relationship with its neighboring countries is not uniformly positive, despite economic ties and business dealings.

American Policy:
An artful American policy that focuses on naval, commercial, cultural, environmental, and multilateral elements can be an effective defense against China’s geostrategic ambitions. Prioritizing military presence may not be the most effective approach, and maintaining strong relationships with China’s neighbors can provide a buffer against Chinese influence.

Changing Dynamics of International Politics:
Graham Allison emphasizes that international politics has moved beyond the Cold War mentality and now involves a globalization of consciousness. With increased access to information, people have a broader awareness of global events and often identify as human beings rather than solely as members of their nation. Non-governmental organizations and entities like ISIL play a larger role in international dynamics.

Realist Approach to International Affairs:
Allison advocates for a realist approach to understanding international affairs, focusing on states with economic and military power coercing others into actions they would otherwise resist. He engages in friendly debates with colleagues who promote soft power, arguing that exerting power can sometimes be necessary to achieve desired outcomes.

The Chinese Case:
Allison highlights the complexity of the Chinese case, where China’s adversaries, Japan and India, are more enthusiastic about opposing China than they are about opposing the United States. He predicts heightened tensions between China and Japan as the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II approaches, fueled by Mr. Abe’s potential statements. India’s ability to become a major player in the region remains uncertain, but the potential for balance of power politics involving the US and Russia exists.

Saudi Arabian Escalation in Yemen:
The current situation in Yemen is likely to worsen, with Saudi Arabia’s aggressive military actions. Saudi Arabia’s air campaign has not been effective against the Houthi rebels, who are supported by Iran. American Special Forces have withdrawn from Yemen, indicating a lack of confidence in the Saudi-led coalition.

Iranian-Sponsored Groups’ Effectiveness:
Iranian-sponsored militias, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, have demonstrated a willingness to engage in deadly conflicts. The Quds Force, Iran’s special forces, and the Revolutionary Guard are also actively involved in combat operations. These groups’ commitment to fighting and dying contributes to the ongoing conflict against ISIL in Iraq.

Chinese Territorial Expansion in the South China Sea:
China’s long history suggests that it may be patient in pursuing its territorial ambitions. China is engaged in large-scale infrastructure projects, including the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. This expansion could lead to disputes over territorial boundaries and maritime rights.

China’s Resurgence:
Lee Kuan Yew, the late Singaporean Prime Minister and astute China watcher, believed that China is poised to rise as a global power.

Lee Kuan Yew’s Influence:
Chinese leaders, including Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping, sought advice and mentorship from Lee Kuan Yew, valuing his insights on China’s development.

Lee Kuan Yew’s Fears:
Lee Kuan Yew harbored concerns about a powerful China’s impact on Singapore’s survival. He initially favored India as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence.

America’s Role:
Lee Kuan Yew recognized the need for the United States to maintain its role as a countervailing force to China’s ambitions in Asia.

China’s Chances of Success:
Lee Kuan Yew estimated a four in five probability of China’s success in becoming the dominant Asian power.

China’s Strategy:
Lee Kuan Yew outlined China’s strategies for achieving dominance, emphasizing the importance of economic and military strength.

China’s Behavior as a Dominant Power:
Lee Kuan Yew predicted that China, as a dominant Asian power, would expect increased deference and respect from other countries.

China’s Desire for Respect:
The Chinese dream, according to Lee Kuan Yew, is to achieve wealth and power that would command respect from the international community.

Measuring Thucydidean Rivalry:
Graham Allison’s methodology for assessing Thucydidean rivalry focuses on rising and ruling powers, using economic size and military strength as primary metrics.

Power Metrics in Phase Two:
In phase two of his research, Allison seeks to explore a wider range of power metrics, encompassing cultural, economic, and ideological dimensions.

Conceptual Undertaking:
Allison aims to establish a conceptual framework for assessing power in international relations, considering various factors and data sources.

Power Index:
Allison mentions the CIA’s four-variable power index and the Chinese concept of aggregate power, highlighting the complexity of measuring a state’s power.

What is Power?:
Power is the ability of one actor (A) to cause another actor (B) to do something that B would not have done otherwise. It can be positive or negative, and it can be exercised in various domains, including economic, military, business, and technology.

China’s Growing Power and Influence:
China is rapidly increasing its power and influence in various domains. It is using its economic might to offer loans and investments to other countries, gaining access to their markets and resources. China is also expanding its military capabilities and using them to assert its territorial claims in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

The Thucydides Trap:
The Thucydides Trap is a concept that suggests that when a rising power (China) challenges a dominant power (the United States), it often leads to conflict. The fear of the rising power’s growing strength can lead the dominant power to take aggressive actions to maintain its dominance.

The Role of Scholars in Government:
Scholars can play an important role in government by providing expertise and analysis to policymakers. They can help illuminate complex issues and dynamics and offer potential solutions to problems. Scholars can also serve as a bridge between academia and the policy world, helping to translate research findings into policy recommendations.

The Challenges of Being a Scholar and a Government Official:
Balancing the roles of scholar and government official can be challenging. Scholars may face pressure to compromise their academic objectivity when working in government. Government officials may find it difficult to maintain their independence and impartiality when faced with political pressures.

The Importance of Policy-Relevant Analysis:
Policy-relevant analysis is research that is designed to inform and influence policy decisions. It aims to provide policymakers with the information and insights they need to make better decisions. Policy-relevant analysis can be conducted by scholars, government officials, and other experts.

The Likelihood of War:
Graham Allison emphasizes that the likelihood of war is often underestimated and that realistic assessments should be made. He stresses the importance of learning lessons from past wars and conflicts to prevent future ones.

The Collapse of the Soviet Union and Nuclear Weapons:
Allison’s concerns about the nuclear weapons left outside of Russia after the Soviet Union’s collapse led him to write reports on the issue. He was appointed to the Clinton administration to address this problem and worked diligently to ensure the safe return of all nuclear weapons to Russia.

The Gratification and Frustrations of Working in Government:
Allison found it immensely rewarding to have the opportunity to play a role in making positive changes. He acknowledges the frustrations of working in a large and complex bureaucratic environment.

Historians’ Involvement in Policymaking:
Graham Allison expresses his mixed feelings about his involvement in policymaking. While he appreciates the opportunity to make a difference, he also finds it frustrating at times.

Kissinger’s Story as an Example:
Allison highlights Henry Kissinger’s story as an example of how historical understanding can inform policymaking. Kissinger’s background as a historian allowed him to make wiser choices in shaping developments for a more peaceful world.

The Need for Interaction between the Academy and the Government:
Allison emphasizes the importance of interaction between academia and the government in policymaking. He believes that historians can provide valuable insights and inform wiser choices for policymakers.

Proposal for an Assistant for Applied History:
Allison proposes creating a position called “Assistant for Applied History” in the President’s office. This role would involve providing historical context and analysis to inform policy decisions.

Historians’ Focus on Narrow Topics:
Allison criticizes the tendency of historians to focus on narrow and specialized topics, rather than mainstream questions that can inform strategy. He encourages historians to return to more historic, diplomatic, and military histories.

Upcoming Talks at the Institution:
Klaus Lahrs announces two upcoming talks at the institution. The first is by Yale political scientist Julian Howarth on Europe’s role in the wider world, and the second is by Irish ambassador Anne Robinson on her experiences as the first female Irish ambassador.