Emmett Shear (Twitch Co-founder) – On the Future of AI & YC Days with Sam (Jun 2023)


Chapters

00:00:00 Co-founder Relationships and Building a Successful Tech Company
00:08:03 Learning from Others' Mistakes and Successes
00:10:40 Principles of Startup Evolution
00:14:21 The Challenges of Creative Work and the Importance of Perseverance
00:18:19 Understanding the Evolution of Justin.TV: From Reality TV to Live Streaming Innovation
00:21:46 Evolution of Justin.TV to Twitch: Transformation and Success
00:25:32 The Evolution of Twitch and SocialCam: From a Gaming Idea to a Streaming Sensation
00:30:10 Twitch Community: Building and Supporting
00:33:28 Building a Better Product: Twitch's Strategy for Beating Competitors
00:36:56 Decision-Making Frameworks for Prioritizing and Evaluating Tech Features
00:44:18 Strategic Integrations and Value Gains After Acquisitions
00:47:05 The Declining Marginal Utility of Money
00:49:29 Managing Across Layers of Abstraction
00:55:55 Challenges of Scaling Transparency and Input in Large Organizations
00:58:00 Discovering Sustainable Work
01:00:13 Product Development and Decision-Making in a Startup
01:08:26 Remote Work and Workplace Culture Dynamics
01:12:18 Goal Setting for Individuals and Companies: Intentions Versus Outputs
01:17:49 Assessing and Selecting Effective Executive Coaches
01:20:34 Early Days of Y Combinator: Lessons and Insights from Emmett Shear
01:28:16 Investor Insights on Market Targeting and Timing
01:31:54 The Importance of Early Market Entry for Startups
01:34:44 Effective Pitching and Startup Success
01:43:18 AI and the Path to Doom
01:54:33 Artificial Intelligence Existential Risk: A Techno-Optimist's Perspective
02:07:30 Unraveling the Nuances of AI Ethics and Economic Inequality
02:19:06 Silicon Valley Wisdom Challenged

Abstract

Innovating Through Challenges: The Journey of Emmett Shear and Twitch (Updated)

Introduction:

In the rapidly evolving world of technology and startups, the story of Emmett Shear and Twitch stands as a testament to strategic innovation, resilience, and the pursuit of excellence. This updated article delves into the intricate aspects of Twitch’s journey, including Shear’s approach to feature prioritization, the company’s successful pivot to gaming, the challenges and strategies inherent in remote work and company scaling, and explores broader themes like AI concerns, co-founder dynamics, financial and management insights, and decision-making in a remote work environment. Drawing insights from Shear’s early days at Y Combinator to Amazon’s acquisition of Twitch, the narrative weaves a comprehensive picture of entrepreneurial determination, adaptability, and vision.

Twitch’s Strategic Pivot and Growth:

Emmett Shear’s journey with Twitch began with the realization that live reality TV was not the future, leading to a pivotal shift towards fulfilling Justin Kan’s influencer aspirations and eventually focusing on gaming content. This decision, fueled by Shear’s intuition and underscored by critical business development skills, set Twitch on a path to rapid growth. The platform’s success can be attributed to its strategic emphasis on streamer satisfaction, offering top-tier moderation tools, discovery options, and subscription services. Twitch’s framework, prioritizing fame, love, and money, underpinned by Amazon’s hands-off approach, allowed for considerable autonomy and innovation in feature development.

Adapting to Challenges: Remote Work, AI Ethics, and Creative Frustrations:

The transition to remote work posed significant challenges for Silicon Valley companies, including Twitch. The need for clear delegation, auditing, follow-up, and documentation became more pronounced in remote settings, a shift from the traditional culture of autonomy and experimentation. Moreover, Shear’s concerns about the potential risks of artificial intelligence highlight the necessity for responsible development and international cooperation. The distinction between AI ethics and AI safety, alongside the importance of AI interpretability and corrigibility, emerges as a crucial aspect of technological advancement.

In his creative journey, Shear experienced three layers of disappointment: engineering, product, and business. Initially, he felt his engineering skills were inadequate compared to experienced engineers. He was satisfied with the micro-design of his products but struggled with macro-level decision-making, particularly in understanding user needs and solving real problems. Additionally, his team and he faced challenges in figuring out what people wanted, leading to frustration when products failed to solve user problems.

Co-Founder Dynamics, Personal Growth, and Coaching:

The dynamics between co-founders, characterized by trust, shared goals, and a collaborative mindset, played a significant role in Twitch’s success. Shear’s emphasis on personal responsibility in both romantic and business relationships, along with the focus on a “we” mindset, fostered an environment conducive to collective achievement. His experiences with coaching and mentorship, notably from Y Combinator’s Paul Graham, underscore the value of self-reflection and asking powerful questions for personal and professional development.

Financial and Managerial Insights:

Effective management, according to Shear, involves continuous learning, empowerment of team members, and adapting techniques for scalability. He advocates for a hybrid model in decision-making, combining debate with decisive action, and stresses the importance of deeply understanding customer problems before designing products. Shear’s experiences highlight the importance of financial literacy and responsible investment, particularly in the context of startups and rapidly growing companies. His insights on effective management and decision-making provide valuable lessons for entrepreneurs and business leaders.

Planning, Feedback, and Customer Understanding:

Plans are essential for direction, but they’re often rendered useless when executed due to unforeseen circumstances, requiring improvisation. Talking to customers is crucial for product development, but directly delegating product design to them is a mistake. Customers can identify problems and realities in their business, but they’re not necessarily skilled in product design. Understanding customers deeply allows for better product design, rather than relying on them to do the job. Validating product ideas through customer feedback is flawed, as it doesn’t change the inherent value of the idea. Great ideas can be mistakenly discarded due to customer feedback, as customers may not be skilled product designers. The order of product development should be: talk to customers first, then come up with great ideas based on that understanding.

Decision-Making in a Co-Founder Team and Remote Work Effectiveness:

In Twitch’s early days, decision-making was often a war of attrition, with the last person standing getting their way. A hybrid model existed, where epic debates took place, but action-takers who “did stuff” also got their way. Despite the contentious nature of the debates, they were valuable in gaming out different perspectives and reaching informed decisions. Remote work can be effective with a high level of delegation, accountability, and documentation. The “island of stability” refers to a theoretical region in the periodic table where elements become stable again after being unstable. Similarly, in remote work, there is a theorized “island of stability” where remote hierarchical companies can be effective. Valley culture emphasizes autonomy and experimentation without strong accountability. This approach does not translate well to remote work due to the lack of implicit social pressure. We will likely see a divergence of models, with some companies specializing in remote work and others focusing on in-office culture. Emmett Shear personally prefers the in-office environment but acknowledges the benefits of remote work for those who value it.

Goals and Intentions:

Emmett Shear prefers focusing on intentions rather than OKRs on a personal level. He views goals as a means of coercing oneself into doing something undesirable. Goals are often set using analytical thinking, which may not align with one’s true desires. Shear emphasizes the limitations of top-down goal setting. Relying solely on intellectual analysis can lead to goals that miss the mark. Setting goals can be dangerous if they don’t align with one’s true intentions. Shear draws inspiration from the book “The Score Takes Care of Itself” by Walsh, which emphasizes that the score in a game is irrelevant if the team has practiced and prepared well. This principle can be applied to goal setting, where focusing on inputs (practice) is more important than outputs (score). Shear advocates a balanced approach to goal setting, including both input and output goals. Output goals ensure accountability, while input goals maintain focus. Different types of goals serve different purposes and contexts. Shear differentiates between long-term inspirational goals and short-term efficiency-driven goals. Both types of goals are valuable and serve distinct purposes. It’s essential to recognize the differences between goal types to avoid confusion and ensure effective goal setting.

The Evolution of Twitch from Justin.TV: Key Insights and Pivotal Changes:

The pursuit of profitability did not directly lead to Justin.TV’s success as a standalone platform; instead, it prioritized profitability over growth. Justin.TV’s lack of growth led to discussions about its future direction, without a clear strategy for reinvigorating growth. Autodesk pivoted towards building mobile video products, recognizing the potential in the pre-Snapchat and pre-TikTok era. The core difference between Justin.TV and Twitch was not the focus on gaming versus general-purpose content; it was the realization that the streamer, not the viewer, was the important customer for live video. The rebranding from Justin.TV to Twitch was motivated by a desire to focus on a specific customer base, but it was ultimately seen as helpful and beneficial to the company’s identity. In contrast to platforms like YouTube, where the focus was on the audience, Twitch recognized that for live video, the success of the platform hinged on satisfying the needs and demands of the streamers themselves. Twitch implemented a system of paying streamers money based on insights gathered from streamer interviews, demonstrating the platform’s commitment to prioritizing their needs. The shift towards building a product designed specifically for streamers, rather than the audience, became the cornerstone of Twitch’s success.

Broader Implications and Future Outlook:

Reflecting on his life at 40, Shear acknowledges the time spent in education and expresses optimism about the future of cities like San Francisco, despite challenges such as the fentanyl crisis. The article concludes by addressing core urban concerns like affordable housing and efficient transit, highlighting the differences in approach between startups and politics. Shear’s story with Twitch not only illustrates a remarkable journey in the tech industry but also offers valuable insights into entrepreneurship, innovation, and the complexities of managing growing organizations in a rapidly changing world. Shear’s experiences and insights offer valuable lessons for entrepreneurs, business leaders, and policymakers. His emphasis on continuous learning, empowerment of team members, and adaptability in management resonates with the challenges of leading and scaling organizations in a rapidly changing technological landscape. Shear’s reflections on the role of technology in society and the importance of responsible innovation provide a thought-provoking perspective on the future of the tech industry and its impact on the world.

The Art of Selecting and Working with Coaches:

Finding the right coach is essential for a successful coaching relationship. Personal recommendations from trusted sources can lead to finding a great coach. A coach with relevant experience can provide valuable insights and guidance. Coaching creates a space for open and honest reflection, without external incentives or agendas. The coach serves as a mirror, helping the client identify strengths, weaknesses, and goals. A successful coaching relationship leads to more positive surprises than negative ones. The client should feel growth and find themselves sharing the lessons learned with others.

YC, Paul Graham, and Early Startup Culture:

YC’s early days attracted ambitious and talented individuals willing to take risks and challenge prevailing narratives. Paul Graham’s exceptional ability to instill confidence and belief in startup founders is his superpower. His mentorship provides founders with the gumption to persevere amidst challenges and uncertainties. Sam Altman’s early promise was evident in his exceptional ability to secure deals, a trait that has remained a hallmark of his career.

Navigating Market Timing and TAM in Startup Investing:

Understanding a founder’s ambitions is crucial in evaluating their TAM (Total Addressable Market). TAM assessment helps reveal questionable assumptions and identifies founders who aim for quick exits rather than building something substantial. TAM analysis is not about precise calculations but serves as an indicator of a founder’s mindset and commitment to building something significant. Companies built by people focused on exits tend to have flaws and lack the drive to create something transformative. Established markets often require higher upfront commitment and capital, making TAM analysis more critical. Founders can fall into the trap of building solutions for nonexistent customers or those uninterested in their offerings. Shear advises targeting markets with existing demand and spending power, such as software developers, instead of niche markets with limited potential. Being early to market is generally preferable, but too-early entry may lead to competing against incumbents and consumer resistance, while too-late entry may miss the market’s growth potential.

Startup Survival and Timing in an Uncertain Market:

Most successful startups are too early to market, not too late. This is because the optimal day to start a company is when all the necessary resources and conditions are in place, but someone else will have already started by then. Infrastructure and momentum are crucial. The first company to build infrastructure and gain momentum in a new market will have a significant advantage over later entrants. You can’t always time the market perfectly. Even if you have a great idea, you may have to wait for the market to catch up. In the meantime, you need to survive. Survival strategies. To survive until the market is ready for your idea, you need to be resourceful and adaptable. This may mean cutting costs, changing your strategy, or even pivoting to a different market. Airbnb’s success. Airbnb is a good example of a company that was too early to market but eventually succeeded. It took time for people to get comfortable with the idea of listing their homes on the internet and renting other people’s stuff. But once they did, Airbnb became a huge success.

Emmett Shear on Startups, Frugality, Speed, and YC:

Frugality isn’t a virtue in itself; speed is. The blast radius of startups is low, which is an advantage for them. Hiring too many people can kill a startup due to high burn rate and slow decision-making. Hiring should be aligned with the goal of maintaining speed. Emmett always wanted to be a YC partner and saw it as a life experience, and enjoys advising startups. YC’s strong network effect attracts smart people, creating a positive feedback cycle. YC has been sustained by its long-term mindset, focusing on building a strong alumni network. The biggest constraint on startups is the availability of sufficiently talented people who are willing to take on the challenges of starting a company. There is enough capital available, but some deserving founders may not get funded due to pitching issues or lack of understanding of investors’ perspectives. Being an investor can help founders understand what investors look for and improve their pitching skills. Founders can benefit from observing actual pitches and discussions to learn from real-world scenarios. Templates for pitches are not helpful as every pitch should be unique and reflect the uniqueness of the company.

Emmett Shear on Artificial Intelligence:

Emmett Shear expresses concerns about the path of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential dangers. He presents a “high-level syllogism” about AI, defining intelligence as the capacity to solve problems and arguing that we are creating increasingly intelligent systems. Shear emphasizes the concept of “instrumental convergence,” where achieving a goal involves taking intermediary steps that may have unintended consequences. Shear believes that AI systems may eventually reach a point where they can self-improve and become significantly smarter than humans. He discusses the idea that the first instrumental step towards achieving an AI’s goal could be to gain control over everything, leading to potential danger if its goals are not aligned with ours. Shear acknowledges the “doom argument” proposed by Eliezer Yudkowsky, suggesting that AI could lead to human extinction if its goals are not aligned with ours. However, he expresses cautious optimism, believing that the problem of alignment is more solvable than some AI researchers suggest. Shear’s probability of doom falls between 5% and 50%, while others in the field, like Paul Cristiano, have estimated a range of 25% to 50%.


Notes by: TransistorZero