Opening Remarks:

The President of Stanford University opens the Stanford Technology Venture Program’s Future Fest by emphasizing the university’s commitment to a bold entrepreneurial spirit. He notes that this spirit is about more than just business ventures; it extends to innovations in fields like medicine, energy efficiency, and arts.

Role of Ideas:

The President points out that every innovation starts with an idea, encouraging the audience to recognize the power of imagination in creating change. He suggests that Future Fest will explore these very breakthroughs and their impact on society.

Collaboration with Stanford Arts:

The event is organized in collaboration with Stanford Arts, indicating a multidisciplinary approach to discussions about future technologies.

About Steve Jervitson:

Steve Jervitson is introduced as a Stanford alumnus and a partner at Draper Fisher Jervitson. Notably, he has investments in SpaceX and Planet Labs. Despite having been advised by the President, Jervitson went on to complete multiple degrees at Stanford and is recognized for being forward-thinking.

About Elon Musk:

Elon Musk is introduced as a serial entrepreneur and a figure synonymous with the future. Born in South Africa and educated in multiple countries, Musk left Stanford after two days to launch his first startup, Zip2. He later founded other impactful ventures like PayPal, SpaceX, and Tesla, revealing a propensity to take risks for significant outcomes.

Closing and Expectations:

The President expresses his excitement for the discussion between Elon Musk and Steve Jervitson, suggesting it will be an enlightening exchange about shaping the future. Matt Harvey, the Executive Director of STVP, will close the program.

Introduction and Context:

The moderator introduces Elon Musk as a key figure shaping the future across multiple industries. The conversation aims to explore the future and its possibilities, partly inspired by the movie “Back to the Future,” which depicted a version of October 2015.

Unexpected Realities:

When asked how today aligns with his high-school imaginings of the future, Musk mentions that having the internet and supercomputers in our pockets is something that was likely unexpected. On the flip side, he notes the disappointing lack of progress in space exploration as a divergence from what was anticipated.

Science Fiction vs. Reality:

The discussion veers towards understanding why some dreams, like those presented in science fiction, become reality while others do not. Although not directly answered, the query touches on how aspirations can sometimes fall short of actualization.

Evolution of Personal Goals:

Reflecting on his career, starting from his first internet company Zip2 to later ventures, Musk is questioned on whether he envisioned reaching subsequent industries that needed transformation. The conversation implies that Musk’s impact on multiple sectors was part of a broader vision he may have had early in his career.

The discussion aims to understand the dichotomy between how humanity envisions the future and what actually comes to fruition, using Musk’s own journey and future-focused projects as a case study.

Factors Shaping Humanity’s Future:

Elon Musk reflects on his college days, stating that he identified the internet, sustainable energy, multi-planetary life, genetics, and AI as key factors likely to influence the future of humanity. While he sees the first three as predominantly positive forces, he considers genetics and AI to be more of a “double-edged sword,” fraught with potential risks as well as benefits.

The Importance of AI in Academia:

When asked if AI and genetics are fields ripe for students to dive into, Musk confirms that they are. He cites the example of his younger cousin, a student at Berkeley, who reports that everyone in the computer science department is focused on AI. Musk foresees significant breakthroughs in AI in the coming years.

Advice to Younger Self:

Musk is questioned about what advice he might give to his younger self, a relevant topic for the presumably young, college-educated audience. While he avoids offering specific life advice, he mentions that he would tell his younger self to listen more to critical feedback. He adds that the physics approach of thinking in terms of first principles has been helpful to him in making sense of counterintuitive situations.

Value of First Principles Thinking:

The discussion briefly touches upon Musk’s appreciation for first principles thinking. This approach helps him understand counterintuitive scenarios and has been a helpful learning from his academic years.

The discussion reveals Musk’s early foresight into what could affect humanity’s future and offers insights into areas that young, aspiring individuals might focus on for making a significant impact. It also highlights the value Musk places on self-improvement and critical thinking.

Choosing What to Fix:

Elon Musk shares that the inspiration for his ventures often comes from recognizing a broken system and conceiving a way to fix it. He applies the physics first principle approach to filter ideas. This involves identifying basic truths and building solutions upon them.

Academic vs Practical Impact:

Musk was initially interested in energy storage technologies for electric vehicles, which he intended to pursue at Stanford. However, he realized that while his research could be academically valuable, he was uncertain about its practical application, particularly whether it would be useful for actual electric vehicles.

Timing and Opportunity:

The internet boom of the mid-’90s made him shift his focus. Musk felt that while progress in energy storage would naturally evolve, the internet was at a critical point. He saw it as a “nervous system” for humanity, fundamentally changing how people communicate and access information. The internet also presented a unique opportunity to create businesses that were not capital intensive, suitable for someone like him who was starting with student debt.

Capital and Future Investments:

His initial goal was modest – just to make enough to pay the rent. However, the capital he eventually gained was reinvested into future businesses like SpaceX. His initial ventures in software, which required less capital, also helped pave the way for his involvement in more capital-intensive projects later on.

Entrepreneurial Wisdom:

Musk emphasizes the importance of timing and adaptability. Although he originally had concerns about the practical implications of his early academic pursuits, he was flexible enough to pivot when he saw the internet’s potential. This ability to adapt, combined with an understanding of timing, was critical to his entrepreneurial success.

Initial SpaceX Goals:

Elon Musk reveals that SpaceX wasn’t originally conceived as a company. Its primary goal was to answer why humans hadn’t been sent to Mars. Musk wanted to “reignite the dream of Apollo,” believing initially that the absence of space exploration was due to a loss of collective will.

Misconception about Will:

Musk later recognized his original premise was incorrect. People had not lost the will to explore; rather, they thought there was no feasible way to achieve this, leading to inaction.

Greenhouse Plan:

Musk discussed his idea of sending a small greenhouse to Mars as a way to capture the public’s imagination. He believed that seeing plants grow on Mars would create a precedent and stimulate interest in space exploration.

Real Objective:

The underlying purpose was to increase NASA’s budget through public excitement. Musk even went to Russia to try to buy Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) because American rockets like those from Boeing and Lockheed were too expensive.

Probability of Success:

Both SpaceX and Tesla faced low odds of success. Musk estimated a mere 10% chance. Both companies narrowly escaped failure in 2008, with SpaceX succeeding on its fourth rocket launch and Tesla securing funding on Christmas Eve.

Catalyzing Broader Change:

Musk views his ventures as catalysts for systemic change, not just as standalone businesses. His goal with Tesla is not only to produce electric cars but to push the entire automotive industry towards electrification.

Importance of Messaging:

When aiming to change public perception or ignite interest, Musk stressed the need for effective messaging. He considers what would resonate with an “objective member of the public” in order to frame his ventures in a compelling manner.

Entrepreneurial Commitment:

Musk personally invested in Tesla during a financial crisis, demonstrating a high level of entrepreneurial commitment. His actions shifted investor sentiment and played a pivotal role in the company’s survival.

This segment paints a vivid picture of Musk’s approach to entrepreneurship: it’s not just about building a company, but about igniting systemic changes and captivating the public’s imagination to accomplish these broader goals.

Purpose Over Short-term Profits:

Elon Musk talks about the importance of having a higher calling in a company, which often goes beyond the quarterly bottom line. He mentions a Tesla quarterly report where profits were stated to be a non-priority in the short term. The focus on a greater purpose, according to Musk, does not clash with the idea of profits but sets the company for success in the long term.

The Mechanics of Growth and Profits:

Musk explains that a purpose-driven company can still be profitable in the long term, despite having negative cash flow or lack of profitability during periods of high growth. He emphasizes that in a growth scenario, a company reinvests more (inputs) for future gains (outputs), which may result in negative cash flow. However, it is crucial to reach a net positive output or profitability in the long term.

Attracting Top Talent:

One of the benefits of a purpose-driven company is the ability to attract the best talent. People are more likely to work for a company if they find the work intrinsically enjoyable and see it as contributing to the greater good. It becomes a powerful motivator, adding another layer of value to the company.

Optimizing for Usefulness:

Musk posits that the goal of any organization should be to optimize for usefulness. While not every company needs to change the world dramatically, making people’s lives better in some capacity is valuable. He introduces the concept of “utility in numbers,” meaning that even if a company’s product improves lives in a small way but impacts a large number of people, the overall value is significant.

Mathematical Principle of Utility:

Musk mentions the ‘area under the curve’ as a way to measure a company’s impact. Even if a product or service makes a small difference but affects a large number of people, the cumulative impact is considerable, validating the company’s existence and purpose.

Computing Power and Cost:

Elon Musk discussed the future landscape of computing. He emphasized that the most significant change would be in the cost of computing power. He believes that the metric of “dollars per instruction” will drop exponentially. Once the capital costs of development are paid, the marginal cost of a chip would be tiny, paving the way for massively parallel computers.

Acceleration of AI:

Musk talked about the challenges in predicting the future of AI due to its exponential growth. He described a recursive y-axis model where the point in time when one’s predictions about AI come true can help determine if the technology is accelerating. He feels AI is one of the most fastly accelerating technologies, evidenced by advancements in autonomous driving.

Autonomous Driving:

On the subject of autonomous vehicles, Musk mentioned that the technology works as a general solution and is less than three years away from being functional. He differentiated between the technology being ready and regulatory approval, suggesting that the latter is a different challenge.

Human Nature and Change:

A discussion point was the influence of human nature on the acceptance of technological advancements. Musk acknowledged that while technology might advance at an exponential rate, human nature remains a constant and could slow down the adoption of new technologies.

Sustainable Energy and Transport:

Musk envisions that by 2035, a supermajority of energy produced will be sustainable, primarily solar-powered. Most of the new vehicles produced will also be electric.

Space Exploration:

Musk projected the possibility of having a small city or town on Mars within 20 years. He emphasized the importance of such endeavors as being inspiring and motivating for humanity.

The conversation provided an insight into Musk’s vision for the future, encompassing key sectors like computing, artificial intelligence, transportation, energy, and space exploration.

Excitement About the Future:

Elon Musk discusses what excites him about the future, mentioning sustainable energy and Mars exploration as key interests. He adds that brain-computer interfaces and synthetic AIs are likely to emerge, noting advancements in artificial hippocampus research aimed at solving severe epilepsy cases. These artificial brain components can read and write information at the neuron level.

Rocketry and Failure:

Musk talks about the experience of a failed rocket test in Hawthorne, Texas, describing the event as painful and difficult. Despite this, he emphasizes that failure is not stigmatized in Silicon Valley, which he views as a positive. When discussing rocket failures, he mentions that there are many more ways to fail than to succeed. Every component must work perfectly during the rocket’s journey, and there is no room for error or post-launch adjustments.

Approach to Failure:

Musk reflects on the Silicon Valley mantra “fail fast, fail often,” stating that while failure is acceptable, learning from success is preferable. He points out the complexities of rocketry, where a failure can happen in many ways but success only in one. He shares that it feels terrible when a failure occurs but acknowledges his role in rallying the team.

Simulation Limitations:

Musk notes the limitations of current simulation tools in rocketry. He explains that it’s impossible to recreate the complete environmental conditions a rocket will face in space while testing it on Earth. This gap between simulation and reality can lead to failures, making the endeavor highly risky.

Software Analogies:

Drawing parallels between rocket design and software engineering, Musk discusses how both fields require modules to work perfectly when integrated, even though they are usually tested in isolation. This is even more critical in rocketry, where there is no chance for a “recall” or “patch” after launch.

Applying Computer Science to Aerospace:

The discussion also touches on Musk’s unique perspective as someone who applies a computer science viewpoint to various industries, including aerospace. This approach often leads to solutions that are radically different from those of industry incumbents, bringing a certain elegance to problem-solving.

Beauty and Functionality:

Elon Musk delves into the significance of design, emphasizing that the aim is to create something beautiful that triggers the ‘fundamental aesthetic algorithms’ in the human brain. According to Musk, there are intrinsic elements in human cognition that evoke an appreciation of beauty. He notes a certain degree of consistency in these reactions across people, although there are individual differences.

Challenges in Automobile Design:

Musk refers to the Tesla Model S and Model X as examples to elaborate on the balancing act between aesthetics and utility. He points out that while it’s easier to make a sports car look good, achieving aesthetic appeal in sedans or SUVs without compromising functionality is a bigger challenge. One specific difficulty was designing the Model S to be a seven-seater without sacrificing its aesthetic value.

Attention to Detail:

Musk advises paying close attention to minute details in design, indicating that such details may go unnoticed consciously but are processed subconsciously to form a ‘gestalt’ or overall impression of an object. These small elements collectively determine whether something is perceived as beautiful or ugly.

Training for Aesthetic Awareness:

Musk says that one can train themselves to notice these intricate details. This heightened awareness is a double-edged sword: while it makes one more discerning, it can also make minor imperfections irksome. He stresses that to make this transition from subconscious awareness to conscious recognition, one needs to pay very close attention.

Managing Design Sensitivity:

Despite his acute awareness of design imperfections, Musk mentions the necessity to ‘turn it off’ at times. This is to avoid being overwhelmed by a constant mental list of things that need fixing.

This segment reveals Musk’s multidimensional approach to design, one that weaves together aesthetics, functionality, and psychology. It also underscores his meticulous nature and the importance he places on balancing utility and aesthetics in product design.

Colonizing Mars:

Elon Musk emphasizes the primary challenge of colonizing Mars is getting there. SpaceX is focused on developing technology to transport large numbers of people and cargo to Mars. Once this foundational issue is resolved, Musk believes opportunities for entrepreneurs will flourish. He envisions a range of enterprises, from restaurants to foundries, eventually leading to a thriving colony.

Living Conditions and Terraforming:

Musk mentions that initially, colonists would reside in glass domes. Over time, the plan is to terraform Mars to make its environment more Earth-like. This opens up possibilities that are hard to predict, likening it to how the Union Pacific Railroad led to unexpected developments like Silicon Valley and Hollywood in California.

Future Governance:

Musk suggests that governance on Mars would be left to the Martians themselves. He envisions a form of direct democracy as opposed to a representative one. The rationale is that modern communication technologies would enable more immediate input from citizens, unlike during the formation of the United States where representative democracy was necessitated by slow communications.

Legal System Considerations:

Musk proposes that Mars could experiment with unique legal frameworks. One idea is to limit the length of laws to make them more understandable and manageable. Laws could also have built-in sunset periods, requiring periodic review and renewal. This would help prevent an accumulation of outdated or unnecessary laws.

Efficiency and Adaptability in Governance:

Elon Musk mentions the concept of making it easier to remove a law than to implement one. He suggests a system where a higher percentage of approval is required to create a law than to abolish it, aiming to avoid the inertia often seen in Earth’s legal systems.

This segment presents Elon Musk’s multifaceted views on the technical, social, and legal complexities of colonizing Mars, offering a window into how he thinks about humanity’s future in space.

Focus on the Essential:

The primary speaker emphasizes Elon Musk’s ability to prioritize crucial tasks despite being a visionary with multiple interests. Musk is noted for focusing most of his efforts on the “railway” that must be built first, rather than being distracted by fascinating future possibilities. This is key to successfully transitioning from a grand vision to practical steps toward that vision.

Practicality over Dreaming:

The speaker recalls a past attempt to engage Musk in a conversation about sending a genetic sequencer to Mars for potential life identification. Musk’s response highlighted his pragmatism: he pointed out that such projects could only be considered after the foundational task of making rockets work reliably is accomplished.

Chaining Vision to Present:

Musk’s success, according to the speaker, lies in his ability to chain a clear sense of the future back to the present. This involves laying down the “stepping stones” in a manner that avoids jeopardizing the larger vision. The importance of this skill is highlighted as something others should emulate when trying to implement change.

Not All Problems are ‘Big and Hairy’:

When asked about the most pressing global issues that need solving, Musk argues that not everyone needs to focus on large, world-changing problems. Instead, Musk advocates for a “usefulness optimization,” urging people to simply contribute something beneficial to humanity.

Current State of the World:

Musk suggests that the world, in many aspects, is in good shape. He cites low violent crime rates and high access to information as indicators of this. He believes that people should feel proud of contributing something useful, even if it doesn’t change the world in a grand way.

Closing Remarks:

The event concludes with acknowledgments from a different speaker, thanking Musk and others for their contributions to Future Fest and the broader entrepreneurial educational efforts at Stanford.

The overall message highlights the balancing act between visionary thinking and practical implementation, with a stress on contributing useful advancements to society.