Climate Change Journey:

Bill Gates shares that his interest in climate change grew over the last 11 years, with a series of educational sessions with professors. He has invested billions in various energy-related endeavors, including TerraPower, alternative meat, and battery companies. His increasing focus is partly driven by a surge in public interest, particularly among young people, to address the issue. He is working on a book to lay out the choices available for reducing emissions and achieving the challenging target of zero emissions by 2050.

Energy Sources for the Future:

Gates believes that solar and wind energy will be significant parts of future energy grids but points out the limitations of these intermittent energy sources. He emphasizes that 24-hour energy sources like nuclear or substantial advancements in energy storage and transmission will be necessary to balance the energy supply.

Challenges and Social Factors:

Gates refers to real-world scenarios in places like Japan and the U.S. Midwest where renewables alone would be insufficient due to periods of low wind or sun. He mentions the need for a more extensive electric grid that can also cover transport, industrial, and heating sectors traditionally powered by hydrocarbons.

Global Cooperation and Equity:

Gates acknowledges the challenges in achieving global cooperation on climate action. He discusses the “free rider problem,” where countries delay taking action based on historical emissions by wealthier nations. This dilemma makes international consensus difficult but imperative for effective climate action.

Carbon Tax:

Bill Gates notes that while a carbon tax could be a solution to combating climate change, its implementation is unlikely in the U.S. Instead, he highlights that tax credits on renewables and renewable portfolio standards are more realistic paths forward.

Renewables and Industrial Sector:

He indicates that much of the focus has been on low-hanging fruit like electric cars and renewable energy sources. While renewables like solar and wind are promising, the industrial sector, including steel and cement production, remains a significant challenge due to its complexity and emissions.

Agriculture’s Impact:

Agriculture is often overlooked in the climate debate, yet it’s a significant emitter. Gates mentions his investments in alternative meat companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods as a hopeful development. He states that cows alone are responsible for 6% of emissions and would be the third-largest emitter after China and the U.S. if considered a country.

Land Use and Deforestation:

Gates points out that the focus should be on tropical zones for effective land use management. He dismisses the idea that soil could be a significant part of the solution, emphasizing the need for emissions to go back into the geosphere, not just the biosphere.

Nuclear Energy:

Gates is a strong advocate for nuclear energy but acknowledges that the current technology is both expensive and highly dependent on human operators for safety. He states that for nuclear energy to be viable, it must be both economically efficient and inherently safe.

Innovation and Risk:

Bill Gates emphasizes the need for a diversified portfolio of solutions, knowing that some might fail. He mentions his investment in TerraPower, a company aimed at developing safer and more efficient nuclear energy. The project faced setbacks due to policy changes that prevented collaboration with China, delaying potential progress.

U.S.-China Relations:

Gates expresses frustration over policy changes that prevented his company, TerraPower, from collaborating with China to build a demo plant. The collaboration had received initial approval but was later revoked, causing a minimum five-year delay in the project.

Overall, Gates stresses the need for diversified strategies, acknowledging both the potential and limitations of various energy sources and policy instruments in addressing the multifaceted issue of climate change.

Nuclear Industry’s Dilemma:

Bill Gates discusses that current nuclear reactors are economically unviable. He stresses that the nuclear industry, not just in the U.S. but globally, will cease to exist without new, innovative designs.

The U.S. Innovation Capacity:

Gates emphasizes that the United States has historically been at the forefront of scientific innovation and has the best historical databases related to nuclear technology. He sees potential for the U.S. to pave the way for next-generation nuclear plants.

Public Perception:

Addressing skepticism towards nuclear energy, Gates argues that people primarily want cheap and reliable electricity. They might not be willing to pay more even if they are committed to combatting climate change. He points out that intermittent energy sources like wind and solar can’t ensure reliability without a “storage miracle.”

Future Grid Composition:

When asked about the role of nuclear energy in the future electricity grid, Gates provides a bimodal answer. He believes nuclear will either account for 0% or a third of the power generation, emphasizing its current role in countries like France and the United States.

U.S.-China Relations:

In the larger context of U.S.-China relations, Gates’ comments on nuclear innovation take on added weight, especially since the U.S. government stopped his plans to build a demo plant in China. This move potentially delays or derails progress in next-generation nuclear technology.

Climate Innovation Portfolio:

Gates advocates for diversifying the innovation portfolio to address climate change, accepting that some bets may not succeed. His focus is on finding scalable, efficient solutions, like his proposed next-gen nuclear plants, to make the problem of achieving zero emissions more manageable.

Advocacy for Global Engagement:

Bill Gates emphasizes his strong support for international engagement, particularly with China. He expresses concern over increasing voices calling for a “decoupling” between the U.S. and China. Gates sees value in interdependence, as it can facilitate dialogue and mutual understanding.

Tech Interdependence:

He specifically mentions how tech companies like Apple are an example of successful interdependence between the U.S. and China. Apple is unique among tech companies for its significant sales in China, further underscoring the importance of international relations in technology.

Two Internets:

When asked about the possibility of a bifurcated internet—one for China and another for the U.S.—Gates argues that scientific research can’t be so easily divided. He implies that advancements in fields like AI and energy are inherently global.

Openness in R&D:

Gates attributes the U.S.’s intellectual prosperity to its openness at the Research and Development (R&D) level. He suggests that restricting access based on nationality is not only impractical but also detrimental to technological and scientific progress.

Trade Wars and Rationality:

The discussion also touches on the subject of trade wars. Gates questions the rationality behind them and suggests that anyone advocating for bifurcation should clarify how they envision the division of scientific publishing and knowledge-sharing.

Open Systems Prevail:

In closing, Gates asserts that an open system will always outpace a closed one. He believes that technologies like AI are “very hard to put back in the bottle” and that the advantages of openness are too great to ignore.

AI Leadership:

Bill Gates argues that trying to define which country leads in AI is an oversimplification. He cites Microsoft’s Research Lab in Beijing, which collaborates closely with American entities, as an example of the global nature of AI development. He emphasizes that AI advancements are a global effort, often involving researchers from multiple countries.

Globalization and Populism:

Gates notes increasing challenges to globalization, including inward-focused politics in both the U.S. and the UK. He speculates whether this trend is cyclical or secular, and how it could impact tackling global problems like climate change.

Declining Trust in Elites:

Gates acknowledges that public trust in elites on issues like climate change has decreased. This decline, he notes, creates challenges in solving large-scale problems that require international cooperation.

Climate Change Efforts:

Gates is optimistic that technological innovation can help fight climate change, citing the $5 billion increase in energy R&D since the Paris climate talks. However, he stresses the need to reduce the “green premium” — the extra cost of going green — especially for middle-income countries like India.

Role of Governments and Philanthropy:

He mentions that while philanthropy can help, government funding is critical for large-scale R&D. Gates calls for tripling the U.S. Department of Energy’s budget from $6 billion to help advance green technologies.

Breakthrough Energy Ventures:

Finally, Gates discusses the success of Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a high-risk venture fund. It has raised $1 billion and collaborates with other investors to fund companies focused on green technologies.

In summary, Gates emphasizes the global, collaborative nature of challenges in AI and climate change, urging for a more cooperative approach among nations and between sectors.